The Impacts of Climate Change on the Emergence and Reemergence of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Temperate Zones: An Umbrella Review Protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Mosquito-borne diseases represent a global public health concern and are responsible for over 700 000 deaths globally every year. Additionally, many mosquito species have undergone a dramatic global expansion due to various factors, including climate change, and forecasts indicate that mosquito populations will persist in dispersing beyond their present geographic range, namely in temperate climates. The research literature on this topic has grown in recent years, including some systematic evidence synthesis. However, to provide a comprehensive overview of this growing literature needed for policy action, a summary of this evidence, including existing systematic reviews, is required. This study aims to undertake an umbrella review that explores the impacts of climate change on the emergence and reemergence of diseases transmitted by mosquitoes in temperate zones and the publication of the protocol is a fundamental step to ensure the credibility, transparency and reproducibility of this research. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Studies published in scientific journals indexed by PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Epistemonikos, and Web of Science Core Collection to be included in this umbrella review will meet the following criteria: the topic of study (climate change and mosquito-borne diseases), regions (temperate zones), study designs (systematic reviews and meta-analysis), language (any) and date (since inception until December 31st, 2023). Titles and abstracts from selected articles will be evaluated by two authors independently and any discrepancy will be resolved through consensus or, if not possible, through a third author. The data will be extracted, and the risk of bias will be evaluated. The quality of the methodology of the included reviews will be assessed using AMSTAR 2. A narrative synthesis will examine the included systematic reviews. The quality of evidence for all outcomes will be judged using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation working group methodology.

Reducing non-communicable diseases among Palestinian populations in Gaza: A participatory comparative and cost-effectiveness modeling assessment.

We sought to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of potential new public health and healthcare NCD risk reduction efforts among Palestinians in Gaza. We created a microsimulation model using: (i) a cross-sectional household survey of NCD risk factors among 4,576 Palestinian adults aged ≥40 years old in Gaza; (ii) a modified Delphi process among local public health experts to identify potentially feasible new interventions; and (iii) reviews of intervention cost and effectiveness, modified to the Gazan and refugee contexts. The survey revealed 28.6% tobacco smoking, a 40.4% prevalence of hypertension diagnosis (with a 95.6% medication treatment rate), a 25.6% prevalence of diabetes diagnosis (with 95.3% on treatment), a 21.9% prevalence of dyslipidemia (with 79.6% on a statin), and a 9.8% prevalence of asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (without known treatment). A calibrated model estimated a loss of 9,516 DALYs per 10,000 population over the 10-year policy horizon. The interventions having an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) less than three times the GDP per capita of Palestine per DALY averted (<$10,992 per DALY averted)(<$10,992 per DALY averted) included bans on tobacco smoking in indoor and public places [$34 per incremental DALY averted (95% CI: $17, $50)], treatment of asthma using low dose inhaled beclometasone and short-acting beta-agonists [$140 per DALY averted (95% CI: $77, $207)], treatment of breast cancer stages I and II [$730 per DALY averted (95% CI: $372, $1,100)], implementing a mass media campaign for healthier nutrition [$737 per DALY averted (95% CI: $403, $1,100)], treatment of colorectal cancer stages I and II [$7,657 per DALY averted (95% CI: $3,721, $11,639)], and (screening with mammography [$17,054 per DALY averted (95% CI: $8,693, $25,359)]). Despite high levels of NCD risk factors among Palestinians in Gaza, we estimated that several interventions would be expected to reduce the loss of DALYs within common cost-effectiveness thresholds.

Environmental impact of dietary patterns in 10 European countries; a cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative dietary surveys.

BACKGROUND: Changing dietary patterns is essential to reducing the substantial environment impact of agriculture and food production systems. We performed a cross-country comparison of dietary patterns and their associated environmental impact in Europe, including by sociodemographic factors. METHODS: We analyzed pooled cross-sectional dietary records collected during 2010-18 from 10 European countries using the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Comprehensive European Food Database (16 508 adults; aged 18-79 years). Each food consumed was mapped to the corresponding environmental impact data using the SHARP Indicators Database, which provides greenhouse gas emission (GHGE) and land use (LU) values of approximately 900 foods. Total diet-associated environmental impact was calculated for each person and averaged across multiple days. Multivariable linear regression models were used to compare diet-associated GHGE and LU between population subgroups (gender, age, education and diet type) with country-level fixed effects. RESULTS: The mean dietary GHGE and LU per capita ranged from 4.0 kgCO2/day and 5.0 m2*year/day in Spain to 6.5 kgCO2eq/day and 8.2 m2*year/day in France. Diet-related GHGE and LU (per kg/food) were lower among females (2.6 kgCO2eq/day, B = -0.08, P < 0.01; 3.2 m2*year/day, B = -0.11, P < 0.01), older population aged 66-79 (2.6 kgCO2eq/day, B = -0.03, P < 0.01; 3.4 m2*year/day, B = -0.4, P < 0.01), people following vegetarian diets (1.7 kgCO2eq/day, B = -0.07, P < 0.01; 2.0 m2*year/day, B = -0.07, P < 0.01), and higher among individuals with secondary education (2.7 kgCO2eq/day, B = 0.05, P < 0.01; 3.6 m2*year/day, B = -0.05, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Environmental footprints vary substantially across countries, dietary patterns and between different sociodemographic groups in Europe. These findings are crucial for the development of country-specific food policies aimed at promoting environmentally sustainable diets.

Progress towards universal health coverage and inequalities in infant mortality: an analysis of 4·1 million births from 60 low-income and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2019.

BACKGROUND: Expanding universal health coverage (UHC) might not be inherently beneficial to poorer populations without the explicit targeting and prioritising of low-income populations. This study examines whether the expansion of UHC between 2000 and 2019 is associated with reduced socioeconomic inequalities in infant mortality in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We did a retrospective analysis of birth data compiled from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs). We analysed all births between 2000 and 2019 from all DHSs available for this period. The primary outcome was infant mortality, defined as death within 1 year of birth. Logistic regression models with country and year fixed effects assessed associations between country-level progress to UHC (using WHO's UHC service coverage index) and infant mortality (overall and by wealth quintile), adjusting for infant-level, mother-level, and country-level variables. FINDINGS: A total of 4 065 868 births to 1 833 011 mothers were analysed from 177 DHSs covering 60 LMICs between 2000 and 2019. A one unit increase in the UHC index was associated with a 1·2% reduction in the risk of infant death (AOR 0·988, 95% CI 0·981-0·995; absolute measure of association, 0·57 deaths per 1000 livebirths). An estimated 15·5 million infant deaths were averted between 2000 and 2019 because of increases in UHC. However, richer wealth quintiles had larger associated reductions in infant mortality from UHC (quintile 5 AOR 0·983, 95% CI 0·973-0·993) than poorer quintiles (quintile 1 0·991, 0·985-0·998). In the early stages of UHC, UHC expansion was generally beneficial to poorer populations (ie, larger reductions in infant mortality for poorer households [infant deaths per 1000 per one unit increase in UHC coverage: quintile 1 0·84 vs quintile 5 0·59]), but became less so as overall coverage increased (quintile 1 0·64 vs quintile 5 0·57). INTERPRETATION: Since UHC expansion in LMICs appears to become less beneficial to poorer populations as coverage increases, UHC policies should be explicitly designed to ensure lower income groups continue to benefit as coverage expands. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

The effect of nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive interventions on the double burden of malnutrition in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) experiencing nutrition transition face an increasing double burden of malnutrition (DBM). WHO has urged the identification of risks and opportunities in nutrition interventions to mitigate the DBM, but robust evidence is missing. This review summarises the effect of nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive interventions on undernutrition and overnutrition in LMICs. METHODS: We searched four major databases and grey literature for publications in English, French, Portuguese, and Spanish from Jan 1, 2000, to Aug 14, 2023. Eligible studies evaluated nutrition-specific or nutrition-sensitive interventions on both undernutrition and overnutrition, employing robust study designs (individually randomised, cluster randomised, and non-randomised trials; interrupted time series; controlled before-after; and prospective cohort studies). Studies were synthesised narratively, and classified as DBM-beneficial, potentially DBM-beneficial, DBM-neutral, potentially DBM-harmful, and DBM-harmful, using vote counting. This review is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022320131). FINDINGS: We identified 26 studies evaluating 20 nutrition-specific (maternal and child health [MCH] and school-based programmes) and six nutrition-sensitive (conditional cash transfers and other social policies) interventions. Seven of eight MCH interventions providing food-based or nutritional supplements indicated possible DBM-harmful effects, associated with increased maternal or child overweight. Most school-based programmes and MCH interventions that target behavioural change were considered potentially DBM-beneficial. Two studies of conditional cash transfers suggested DBM-beneficial effects in children, whereas one indicated potentially harmful effects on maternal overweight. A study on a family planning service and one on an education reform revealed possible long-term harmful effects on obesity. INTERPRETATION: There is considerable scope to repurpose existing nutrition interventions to reduce the growing burden of the DBM in LMICs. In settings undergoing rapid nutrition transition, specific policy attention is required to ensure that food-based or supplement-based MCH programmes do not unintentionally increase maternal or child overweight. Consistent reporting of undernutrition and overnutrition outcomes in all nutrition interventions is essential to expand the evidence base to identify and promote interventions maximising benefits and minimising harms on the DBM. FUNDING: President's Scholarship (Imperial College London) and National Institute for Health and Care Research. TRANSLATIONS: For the Portuguese, Spanish and French translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Consumption of ultra-processed foods and risk of multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases: a multinational cohort study.

Background: It is currently unknown whether ultra-processed foods (UPFs) consumption is associated with a higher incidence of multimorbidity. We examined the relationship of total and subgroup consumption of UPFs with the risk of multimorbidity defined as the co-occurrence of at least two chronic diseases in an individual among first cancer at any site, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study including 266,666 participants (60% women) free of cancer, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes at recruitment from seven European countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Foods and drinks consumed over the previous 12 months were assessed at baseline by food-frequency questionnaires and classified according to their degree of processing using Nova classification. We used multistate modelling based on Cox regression to estimate cause-specific hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations of total and subgroups of UPFs with the risk of multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. Findings: After a median of 11.2 years of follow-up, 4461 participants (39% women) developed multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. Higher UPF consumption (per 1 standard deviation increment, ∼260 g/day without alcoholic drinks) was associated with an increased risk of multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.12). Among UPF subgroups, associations were most notable for animal-based products (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.12), and artificially and sugar-sweetened beverages (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.12). Other subgroups such as ultra-processed breads and cereals (HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.94, 1.00) or plant-based alternatives (HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.02) were not associated with risk. Interpretation: Our findings suggest that higher consumption of UPFs increases the risk of cancer and cardiometabolic multimorbidity. Funding: Austrian Academy of Sciences, Fondation de France, Cancer Research UK, World Cancer Research Fund International, and the Institut National du Cancer.

Perceptions about the "Mais Médicos" Program and the Academic Supervision Process / Percepções acerca do Programa Mais Médicos e do Processo de Supervisão Acadêmica

Abstract: Introduction: This study aims to analyze the perceptions of the involved actors about the "Mais Médicos" Program (PMM) and the academic supervision process, its strengths and weaknesses aiming to improve Primary Heath Care practices. Method: Qualitative study carried out through 05 in-depth interviews with PMM supervising doctors, and 24 interviews with unit managers, 12 Primary Heath Care coordinators, and 07 Secondary Health Care doctors. Results: Three thematic axes emerged from de analysis: benefits of the program for the municipalities and for the population; the challenges of the supervisory process and the difficulties of the fragmented health system. Conclusions: The actors' perception of the "Mais Médicos" Program are positive, especially because it brought doctors to municipalities with vulnerable areas, where doctors did not go to and where they did not stay. Supervision is an important support for continuing in-service training; however, it requires a better articulation with the different levels of the health system management. The precariousness of the service network limits the performance of both doctors and supervisors, demonstrating that it is necessary to invest in a solid and effective care network. Moreover, it was once again evident that the population will face a shortage of doctors due to changes in health policies. It is necessary to build more comprehensive policies, that will not only result in sporadic provision of medical care. There is a need for continuous actions, better integrated to the healthcare networks, aiming at an efficient and effective healthcare system.

Resumo: Introdução: Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar as percepções dos atores envolvidos acerca do Programa Mais Médicos (PMM) e do processo de supervisão acadêmica, as suas fragilidades e pontencialidades para a melhoria das práticas na atenção primária à saúde. Método: Trata-se de estudo qualitativo, realizado por meio de cinco entrevistas em profundidade com médicos supervisores do PMM, analisados com auxílio do software Iramuteq, e 24 entrevistas com gestores de unidades, 12 coordenadores da atenção básica e sete médicos da atenção secundária, que foram submetidas à análise de conteúdo. Resultados: Da análise surgiram três eixos temáticos: benefícios do programa para os municípios e a população, os desafios do processo de supervisão e as dificuldades do sistema de saúde fragmentado. Conclusões: As percepções dos atores acerca do PMM são positivas, sobretudo porque o programa levou médicos para os municípios com áreas vulneráveis. Antes do PMM, os médicos não tinham interesse em deslocar-se para essas áreas e, quando o faziam, não permaneciam muito tempo nesses locais. A supervisão é importante apoio de formação continuada em serviço, contudo requer que seja mais bem articulada com os diversos níveis de gestão do sistema de saúde. A precariedade da rede de serviços limita a atuação tanto dos médicos como da supervisão, demonstrando que é preciso investir em uma rede de atenção sólida e eficaz. Ademais, ficou evidente que, mais uma vez, a população enfrentará a falta de médicos por causa das mudanças nas políticas de saúde que não priorizam a garantia do acesso universal aos serviços de saúde. É necessária a construção de políticas mais abrangentes que não se limitem ao provimento esporádico de médicos. É imprescindível que haja ações contínuas e mais bem integradas às redes de atenção, visando a um sistema de saúde eficiente e eficaz.

The potential impact of austerity on attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals in Brazil

In the recent decades, Brazil has outperformed comparable countries in its progress toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Many of these improvements have been driven by investments in health and social policies. In this article, we aim to identify potential impacts of austerity policies in Brazil on the chances of achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and its consequences for population health. Austerity's anticipated impacts are assessed by analysing the change in federal spending on different budget programmes from 2014 to 2017. We collected budget data made publicly available by the Senate. Among the selected 19 programmes, only 4 had their committed budgets increased, in real terms, between 2014 and 2017. The total amount of extra money committed to these four programmes in 2017, above that committed in 2014, was small (BR$9.7 billion). Of the 15 programmes that had budget cuts in the period from 2014 to 2017, the total decrease amounted to BR$60.2 billion (US$15.3 billion). In addition to the overall large budget reduction, it is noteworthy that the largest proportional reductions were in programmes targeted at more vulnerable populations. In conclusion, it seems clear that the current austerity policies in Brazil will probably damage the population's health and increase inequities, and that the possibility of meeting SDG targets is lower in 2018 than it was in 2015.