An internally and externally validated nomogram for predicting the risk of irinotecan-induced severe neutropenia in advanced colorectal cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: In Asians, the risk of irinotecan-induced severe toxicities is related in part to UGT1A1*6 (UGT, UDP glucuronosyltransferase) and UGT1A1*28, variant alleles that reduce the elimination of SN-38, the active metabolite of irinotecan. We prospectively studied the relation between the UGT1A1 genotype and the safety of irinotecan-based regimens in Japanese patients with advanced colorectal cancer, and then constructed a nomogram for predicting the risk of severe neutropenia in the first treatment cycle. METHODS: Safety data were obtained from 1312 patients monitored during the first 3 cycles of irinotecan-based regimen in a prospective observational study. In development of the nomogram, multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to test the associations of candidate factors to severe neutropenia in the first cycle. The final nomogram based on the results of multivariable analysis was constructed and validated internally using a bootstrapping technique and externally in an independent data set (n=350). RESULTS: The UGT1A1 genotype was confirmed to be associated with increased risks of irinotecan-induced grade 3 or 4 neutropenia and diarrhoea. The final nomogram included type of regimen, administered dose of irinotecan, gender, age, UGT1A1 genotype, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, pre-treatment absolute neutrophil count, and total bilirubin level. The model was validated both internally (bootstrap-adjusted concordance index, 0.69) and externally (concordance index, 0.70). CONCLUSIONS: Our nomogram can be used before treatment to accurately predict the probability of irinotecan-induced severe neutropenia in the first cycle of therapy. Additional studies should evaluate the effect of nomogram-guided dosing on efficacy in patients receiving irinotecan.

Strategies to induce marked prolongation of secondary skin allograft survival in alloantigen-primed mice.

Alloreactive memory T cells mediate accelerated rejection. We investigated the effect of polyclonal anti-T-cell antibody (ALS) and rapamycin (RAPA) on skin allograft survival in naïve or alloantigen-primed mice. ALS prolonged graft survival in both naïve and alloantigen-primed mice. T-cell depletion by ALS was associated with increased CD4(+)CD44(hi)OX40(+) and CD8(+)CD44(hi)CD122(+) memory T cells. Addition of RAPA to ALS extended graft survival in naïve mice, but had no effect on secondary allograft survival in alloantigen-primed mice. In adoptive transfer experiments, RAPA inhibited alloantigen-stimulated proliferation and allograft rejection by naïve T cells. In contrast, alloantigen-primed memory T cells, particularly CD4(+)CD44(hi)OX40(+) and CD8(+)CD44(hi)CD122(+) T cells, were resistant to RAPA in response to alloantigen and mediated accelerated rejection in the presence of RAPA. Resistance to RAPA by alloantigen-primed mice was overcome by the use of high-dose ALS, which achieved marked prolongation of secondary skin allograft survival (>100 days). Inhibition of CD122(+) T cells and/or OX40/OX40L costimulation blockade, combined with low-dose ALS and RAPA, was also effective. These results demonstrate that tolerance may be achieved in allosensitized individuals by T-cell depletion- and RAPA-based strategies employing high-dose ALS or targeting CD122(+)CD8(+) T cells and/or the OX40/OX40L costimulatory pathway.