Can phone surveys be representative in low- and middle-income countries? An application to Myanmar.

For decades, in-person data collection has been the standard modality for nationally and sub-nationally representative socio-economic survey data in low- and middle-income countries. As the COVID-19 pandemic rendered in-person surveys impossible and unethical, the urgent need for rapid monitoring necessitated researchers and statistical agencies to turn to phone surveys. However, apart from pandemic-related factors, a variety of other reasons can render large segments of a population inaccessible for in-person surveys, including political instability, climatic shocks, and remoteness. Such circumstances currently prevail in Myanmar, a country facing civil conflict and political instability since the February 2021 military takeover. Moreover, Myanmar routinely experiences extreme weather events and is characterized by numerous inaccessible and remote regions due to its mountainous geography. We describe a novel approach to sample design and statistical weighting that has been successfully applied in Myanmar to obtain nationally and sub-nationally representative phone survey data. We use quota sampling and entropy weighting to obtain a better geographical distribution compared to recent in-person survey efforts, including reaching respondents in areas of active conflict. Moreover, we minimize biases towards certain household and respondent characteristics that are usually present in phone surveys, for example towards well-educated or wealthy households, or towards men or household heads as respondents. Finally, due to the rapidly changing political and economic situation in Myanmar in 2022, the need for frequent and swift monitoring was critical. We carried out our phone survey over four quarters in 2022, interviewing more than 12,000 respondents in less than three months each survey. A survey of this scale and pace, though generally of much shorter duration than in-person interviews, could only be possible on the phone. Our study proves the feasibility of collecting nationally and sub nationally representative phone survey data using a non-representative sample frame, which is critical for rapid monitoring in any volatile economy.

Value addition and farmers: Evidence from coffee in Ethiopia.

Local value-addition in developing countries is often aimed at for upgrading of agricultural value chains, since it is assumed that doing so will make farmers better off. However, transmission of the added value through the value chain and constraints to adoption of value-adding activities by farmers are not well understood. We look at this issue in the case of coffee in Ethiopia-the country's most important export product-and value-addition in the coffee value-chain through 'washing' coffee, which is done in wet mills. Washed coffee is sold internationally with a significant premium compared to 'natural' coffee but the share of washed coffee in Ethiopia's coffee exports has stagnated. Relying on a unique primary large-scale dataset and a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, we examine the reasons for this puzzle. The reasons seemingly are twofold. First, labor productivity in producing red cherries, which wet mills require, is lower than for natural coffee, reducing incentives for adoption, especially for those farmers with higher opportunity costs of labor. Second, only impatient, often smaller, farmers sell red cherries, as more patient farmers use the storable dried coffee cherries as a rewarding savings instrument, given the negative real deposit rates in formal savings institutions.

Food prices, processing, and shocks: Evidence from rice and COVID-19.

Rice is the staple food for about half of the world's population and mills are the essential processing link between farmers and consumers, making rice milling one of the most important agro-processing sectors globally. This paper assesses changes in rice and paddy prices, and processing margins during the COVID-19 pandemic shock through the lens of rice mills in Myanmar. Our data, collected through telephone surveys with a large number of medium- and large-scale rice millers in September 2020, reveal significant disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic, including transportation restrictions, employee lay-offs, and reduced operations relative to normal times. However, milling margins, and paddy and rice prices were mostly stable, showing only minor increases compared to 2019. Rice prices increased most for the varieties linked to export markets, though the gains were mostly passed through to farmers as higher paddy prices. Similarly, higher rice prices achieved by modern mills-due to extra processing-were mostly transmitted to producers. Our results also highlight the major importance of byproducts-broken rice and rice bran-sales to overall milling margins as byproduct sales allowed mill operators to sustain negative paddy-to-rice margins.

Fasting, food and farming: Value chains and food taboos in Ethiopia.

The impact of food taboos-often because of religion-is understudied. In Ethiopia, religious fasting by Orthodox Christians is assumed to be an important impediment for the sustainable development of a competitive dairy sector and desired higher milk consumption, especially by children. However, evidence is limited. Relying on unique data, we shed light on three major issues. First, we observe that the average annual number of fasting days that Orthodox adults are effectively adhering to is 140, less than commonly cited averages. Using this as an estimate for extrapolation, fasting is estimated to reduce annual dairy consumption by approximately 12 percent nationally. Second, farms adapt to declining milk demand during fasting by increased processing of milk into storable products-fasting contributes to larger price swings for these products. We further note continued sales of milk by non-remote farmers and reduced production-by adjusting lactation times for dairy animals-for remote farmers. Third, fasting is mostly associated with increased milk consumption by the children of dairy farmers, seemingly because of excess milk availability during fasting periods. Our results suggest that fasting habits are not a major explanation for the observed poor performance of Ethiopia's dairy sector nor low milk consumption by children. To reduce the impact of fasting on the dairy sector in Ethiopia further, investment is called for in improved milk processing, storage, and infrastructure facilities.

Quiet Revolution by SMEs in the midstream of value chains in developing regions: wholesale markets, wholesalers, logistics, and processing.

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the midstream (processors, wholesalers and wholesale markets, and logistics) segments of transforming value chains have proliferated rapidly over the past several decades in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Their spread has been most rapid in the long transitional stage between the traditional and modern stages, when value chains grow long and developed with urbanization but are still fragmented, before consolidation. Most of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, and parts of the other regions, are in that stage. The midstream SMEs in output and input value chains are important to overall food security (moving about 65% of food consumed in Africa and South Asia), and to employment, farmers, poor consumers, and the environment. The midstream of value chains is neglected in the national and international debates as the "missing middle." We found that it is indeed not missing but rather hidden from the debate, hence "the hidden middle." The midstream SMEs grow quickly and succeed where enabling conditions are present. Our main policy recommendations are to support the SMEs further growth through a focus on infrastructure investment, in particular on wholesale markets and roads, a reduction of policy-related constraints such as excessive red tape, and regulation for food safety and good commercial practices.

Food prices and marketing margins during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from vegetable value chains in Ethiopia.

It is widely feared that the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a significant worsening of the food security situation in low and middle-income countries. One reason for this is the disruption of food marketing systems and subsequent changes in farm and consumer prices. Based on primary data in Ethiopia collected just before the start and a few months into the pandemic, we assess changes in farm and consumer prices of four major vegetables and the contribution of different segments of the rural-urban value chain in urban retail price formation. We find large, but heterogeneous, price changes for different vegetables with relatively larger changes seen at the farm level, compared to the consumer level, leading to winners and losers among local vegetable farmers due to pandemic-related trade disruptions. We further note that despite substantial hurdles in domestic trade reported by most value chain agents, increases in marketing-and especially transportation-costs have not been the major contributor to overall changes in retail prices. Marketing margins even declined for half of the vegetables studied. The relatively small changes in marketing margins overall indicate the resilience of these domestic value chains during the pandemic in Ethiopia.

The Processed food revolution in African food systems and the Double Burden of Malnutrition.

African consumers have purchased increasing amounts of processed food over the past 50 years. The opportunity cost of time of women and men has increased as more of them work outside the home, driving them to buy processed food and food prepared away from home to save arduous home-processing and preparation labor. In the past several decades, this trend has accelerated with a surge on the supply side of the processing sector and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and large private companies making massive aggregate investments. Packaged, industrialized, ultra-processed foods and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a growing proportion of the processed food consumed. Also, in the past several decades, overweight and obesity have joined the long-standing high levels of stunting and wasting among children and extreme thinness among women of childbearing age. Together these phenomena have formed a double burden of malnutrition (DBM). The DBM has emerged as an important health problem in sub-Saharan Africa. The rise of the DBM and the increase in ultra-processed food consumption are linked. Policy makers face a dilemma. On the one hand, purchases of processed food are driven by long-term factors, such as urbanization, increased income, and employment changes, and thus policy cannot change the pursuit of convenience and labor-saving food. Moreover, much processed food, like packaged milk, is a boon to nutrition, and the processed food system is a major source of jobs for women. On the other hand, the portion (some 10-30%) of processed food that is ultra-processed is a public health challenge, and policy must address its detrimental effects on disease burden. The global experience suggests that double duty actions are most important as are selected policies focused on healthy weaning foods for addressing stunting and taxes on SSBs, nutrition labeling, and other measures can steer consumers away from unhealthy ultra-processed foods to addressing obesity and possibly child nutrition and stunting. We recommend that African governments consider these policy options, but note that the current extreme fragmentation of the processing sector, consisting of vast numbers of informal SMEs in sub-Saharan Africa, and the limited administrative/implementation capacity of many African governments require pursuing this path only gradually.

Impacts of COVID-19 on agricultural production and food systems in late transforming Southeast Asia: The case of Myanmar.

The objective of this contribution is to report the initial impacts of measures taken to contain the COVID-19 pandemic on Myanmar's agri-food system. Myanmar is one of several late-transforming low-income countries in Southeast Asia where agriculture still plays a large role in rural livelihoods, and where food prices are a key factor affecting nutrition security for poor urban and rural households. Whereas the economic impacts of COVID-19 disruptions on tourism and manufacturing were obvious to policymakers, the impacts on the agri-food system were less evident and often more indirect. This resulted in the rural sector being allocated only a very small share of the government's initial fiscal response to mitigate the economic impacts of COVID-19. To correct this information gap, a suite of phone surveys covering a wide spectrum of actors in the agri-food system were deployed, including farm input suppliers, mechanization service providers, farmers, commodity traders, millers, food retailers and consumers. The surveys were repeated at regular intervals prior to and during the main crop production season which began shortly after nationwide COVID-19 prevention measures were implemented in April. While the results indicate considerable resilience in the agri-food system in response to the initial disruptions, persistent financial stress for a high proportion of households and agri-food system businesses indicate that the road to a full recovery will take time. The experience provides important lessons for strengthening the resilience of the agri-food system, and the livelihoods of households that depend on it.

Geography of public service delivery in rural Ethiopia.

Remote areas are often characterized by lower welfare outcomes due to economic disadvantages and higher transaction costs for trade. But their poorer situation may also be linked to worse public service delivery. Relying on large household surveys in rural Ethiopia, we explore this by assessing the association of two measures of remoteness - (1) the distance of service centers to district capitals and (2) the distance of households to service centers (the last mile) - with public service delivery in agriculture and health sectors. In the agriculture sector, we document statistically significant and economically meaningful associations between exposure to agriculture extension and the two measures of remoteness. For health extension, only the last mile matters. These differences between the two sectors could be due to the fact that more remote villages tend to have fewer agriculture extension workers who also put in fewer hours than their peers in more connected areas. This does not apply in the health sector. These findings provide valuable inputs for policymakers aiming to improve inclusiveness in poor rural areas.

Emerging Medium-Scale Tenant Farming, Gig Economies, and the COVID-19 Disruption: The Case of Commercial Vegetable Clusters in Ethiopia.

Driven by the fast spread of private irrigation pumps, there has been a rapid expansion of intensive vegetable cultivation in the central Rift Valley in Ethiopia, making it the most important commercial vegetable production cluster in the country. Supporting that "quiet revolution" has been an inflow of migrant laborers-paid through daily, monthly, or piecemeal contracts, with few employment benefits attached to them-and a gig economy as widely used contractors organize, among others, mechanized land preparation, the digging of wells and ponds, seedling propagation, and loading of trucks. Almost 60% of the irrigated area is cultivated by medium-scale tenant farmers relying on short-term rental contracts. It seems that gig economies characterized by flexible contract arrangements implemented by outside contractors, which are increasingly fueling sophisticated sectors in developed countries, are important in these commercial agrarian settings in Africa as well. We further find that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant disruptions of this model, as seen by more limited access to services and the unavailability or high price increases in factor markets, especially for labor, and large but heterogenous price changes in output markets.

Grâce à la diffusion rapide des pompes d'irrigation privées, la culture intensive de légumes a connu une expansion rapide dans la vallée centrale du Rift en Éthiopie, ce qui en a fait le groupe commercial de production maraîchère plus important du pays. Cette «révolution tranquille¼ a été soutenue par un afflux de travailleurs migrants­rémunérés au moyen de contrats journaliers, mensuels ou au coup par coup, qui comportent peu d'avantages en matière d'emploi­et par une économie de petits boulots, puisque des entrepreneurs largement utilisés organisent, entre autres, la préparation mécanique du sol, le forage de puits et d'étangs, la propagation des semis et le chargement des camions. Près de 60 pour cent de la superficie irriguée est cultivée par des locataires fermiers de taille moyenne qui dépendent de contrats de location à court terme. Il semblerait que les économies de petits boulots, caractérisées par des contrats flexibles mis en œuvre par des entrepreneurs extérieurs, qui alimentent de plus en plus les secteurs sophistiqués dans les pays développés, sont également importantes dans ces milieux agricoles commerciaux en Afrique. Nous constatons en outre que la pandémie de COVID-19 a entraîné des perturbations importantes de ce modèle, comme en témoignent un accès plus limité aux services et l'indisponibilité ou de fortes augmentations de prix sur le marché des facteurs, en particulier pour la main d'œuvre, et des variations de prix importantes mais hétérogènes sur les marchés des produits.

The transforming dairy sector in Ethiopia.

In the transformation of agri-food systems in developing countries, we usually see rapid changes in the dairy sector. However, good data for understanding patterns and inclusiveness of this transformation are often lacking. This is important given implications for policy design and service and technology provision towards better performing dairy sectors in these settings. Relying on a combination of unique diverse large-scale datasets and methods, we analyze transformation patterns in the dairy value chain supplying Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa. Over the last decade, we note a rapid increase in expenditures on dairy products by urban consumers, especially among the better-off. Relatedly, the number of dairy processing firms in Ethiopia tripled over the same period, supplying a significant part of these dairy products, especially pasteurized milk, to the city's residents. Upstream at the production level, we find improved access to livestock services, higher adoption of cross-bred cows, an increase in milk yields, expanding liquid milk markets, a sizable urban farm sector supplying almost one-third of all liquid milk consumed in the city, and an upscaling process with larger commercial dairy farms becoming more prevalent. However, average milk yields are still low and not all dairy farmers are included in this transformation process. Small farms with dairy animals as well as those in more remote areas benefit less from access to services and adopt less these modern practices. For these more disadvantaged farmers, stagnation in milk yields and even declines-depending on the data source used-are observed.

The transforming value chain of Ethiopia's "orphan" tef crop.

MAIN CONCLUSION: Despite the relatively little attention given to tef, the value chain is quickly transforming and is expected to further do so in the near future. Tef is called an "orphan" crop in Ethiopia as it receives relatively little attention from the Ethiopian government and from international donors. Given the low yields of tef compared to other crops, it is often viewed as a low-priority crop and relatively little is known about the value chain of tef. We fill some of this knowledge gap in this paper. We illustrate tef's importance in Ethiopia's food systems and the rapid changes upstream, midstream, and downstream in its value chain. We show that tef production and productivity is rapidly increasing and that tef markets are improving over time. More specifically, using a growth decomposition analysis, we find that while the expansion of land and labor use have been important sources of growth in tef production, the relative contributions of modern input use and agricultural extension have been increasing over time. We also show that tef has greater economic potential, with comparatively more of it consumed by the better-off segments of the population, indicating that its importance is likely to grow over time as income grows in the country. Using reasonable assumptions on income growth, urbanization, and commercialization, we estimate that national tef consumption and marketed output will increase by about 250 and 300%, respectively, over a 20-year period.

The quiet revolution in Asia's rice value chains.

There is a rapid transformation afoot in the rice value chain in Asia. The upstream is changing quickly-farmers are undertaking capital-led intensification and participating in burgeoning markets for land rental, fertilizer and pesticides, irrigation water, and seed, and shifting from subsistence to small commercialized farms; in some areas landholdings are concentrating. Midstream, in wholesale and milling, there is a quiet revolution underway, with thousands of entrepreneurs investing in equipment, increasing scale, diversifying into higher quality, and the segments are undergoing consolidation and vertical coordination and integration. Mills, especially in China, are packaging and branding, and building agent networks in wholesale markets, and large mills are building direct relationships with supermarkets. The downstream retail segment is undergoing a "supermarket revolution," again with the lead in change in China. In most cases the government is not playing a direct role in the market, but enabling this transformation through infrastructural investment. The transformation appears to be improving food security for cities by reducing margins, offering lower consumer rice prices, and increasing quality and diversity of rice. This paper discusses findings derived from unique stacked surveys of all value chain segments in seven zones, more and less developed, around Bangladesh, China, India, and Vietnam.

Supermarket revolution in Asia and emerging development strategies to include small farmers.

A "supermarket revolution" has occurred in developing countries in the past 2 decades. We focus on three specific issues that reflect the impact of this revolution, particularly in Asia: continuity in transformation, innovation in transformation, and unique development strategies. First, the record shows that the rapid growth observed in the early 2000s in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand has continued, and the "newcomers"--India and Vietnam--have grown even faster. Although foreign direct investment has been important, the roles of domestic conglomerates and even state investment have been significant and unique. Second, Asia's supermarket revolution has exhibited unique pathways of retail diffusion and procurement system change. There has been "precocious" penetration of rural towns by rural supermarkets and rural business hubs, emergence of penetration of fresh produce retail that took much longer to initiate in other regions, and emergence of Asian retail developing-country multinational chains. In procurement, a symbiosis between modern retail and the emerging and consolidating modern food processing and logistics sectors has arisen. Third, several approaches are being tried to link small farmers to supermarkets. Some are unique to Asia, for example assembling into a "hub" or "platform" or "park" the various companies and services that link farmers to modern markets. Other approaches relatively new to Asia are found elsewhere, especially in Latin America, including "bringing modern markets to farmers" by establishing collection centers and multipronged collection cum service provision arrangements, and forming market cooperatives and farmer companies to help small farmers access supermarkets.