Relationship between air quality and asthma-related emergency hospital admissions in Mexico City 2017-2019.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies found exposure to air pollution leads to exacerbations of asthma in paediatric and adult patients and increases asthma-related emergency hospital admissions (AREHA). METHODS: AREHAs and levels of air pollutants (PM10, PM2.5 and NO2) were obtained from Mexico City for the period 2017-2019. A time-series approach was used to explore the relationship between air pollutants and AREHA. Relative risks of AREHA were estimated using a negative binomial regression in young children (less than 5 years) and adults (greater than 18 years). RESULTS: There was a positive association between AREHA and PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 in adults, which remained after mutual adjustment for these pollutants. The relative risk (RR) of admission in adults increased by 3% (95% CI 1% to 4%) for a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM10, 1% (0.03% to 3%) for a 5 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 and by 1% (0.06% to 2%) for a 5 µg/m3 increase in NO2. In contrast, in young children, AREHAs were negatively associated with PM10 after adjustment for NO2 (RR 0.97 (0.95 to 0.99) for a 10 µg/m3 and with NO2 after adjustment for PM10 and PM2.5 (RR 0.98 (0.96 to 0.99) and 0.97 (0.96 to 0.99), respectively, for a 5 µg/m3 increase in NO2). AREHAs in children were not associated with PM2.5 after adjustment for NO2. CONCLUSIONS: Ambient air pollution, within the previous week, was associated with emergency hospital admissions for asthma to public hospitals in adults in Mexico City. The relationship in children was less consistent. Further work is needed to explore why differences between adults and children exist to inform appropriate interventions to benefit public health.

Modelling Variable Fire Severity in Boreal Forests: Effects of Fire Intensity and Stand Structure.

It is becoming clear that fires in boreal forests are not uniformly stand-replacing. On the contrary, marked variation in fire severity, measured as tree mortality, has been found both within and among individual fires. It is important to understand the conditions under which this variation can arise. We integrated forest sample plot data, tree allometries and historical forest fire records within a diameter class-structured model of 1.0 ha patches of mono-specific black spruce and jack pine stands in northern Québec, Canada. The model accounts for crown fire initiation and vertical spread into the canopy. It uses empirical relations between fire intensity, scorch height, the percent of crown scorched and tree mortality to simulate fire severity, specifically the percent reduction in patch basal area due to fire-caused mortality. A random forest and a regression tree analysis of a large random sample of simulated fires were used to test for an effect of fireline intensity, stand structure, species composition and pyrogeographic regions on resultant severity. Severity increased with intensity and was lower for jack pine stands. The proportion of simulated fires that burned at high severity (e.g. >75% reduction in patch basal area) was 0.80 for black spruce and 0.11 for jack pine. We identified thresholds in intensity below which there was a marked sensitivity of simulated fire severity to stand structure, and to interactions between intensity and structure. We found no evidence for a residual effect of pyrogeographic region on simulated severity, after the effects of stand structure and species composition were accounted for. The model presented here was able to produce variation in fire severity under a range of fire intensity conditions. This suggests that variation in stand structure is one of the factors causing the observed variation in boreal fire severity.