Comparative Effectiveness of Baloxavir Marboxil and Oseltamivir Treatment in Reducing Household Transmission of Influenza: A Post Hoc Analysis of the BLOCKSTONE Trial.

BACKGROUND: The transmission of influenza virus in households, especially by children, is a major route of infection. Prior studies suggest that timely antiviral treatment of ill cases may reduce infection in household contacts. The aim of the study was to compare the effects of oseltamivir (OTV) and baloxavir marboxil (BXM) treatment of index cases on the secondary attack rate (SAR) of influenza within household. METHODS: A post hoc analysis was done in BLOCKSTONE trial-a placebo-controlled, double-blinded post-exposure prophylaxis of BXM. Data were derived from the laboratory-confirmed index cases' household contacts who received placebo in the trial and also from household members who did not participate in the trial but completed illness questionnaires. To assess the SAR of household members, multivariate analyses adjusted for factors including age, vaccination status, and household size were performed and compared between contacts of index cases treated with BXM or OTV. RESULTS: In total, 185 index cases (116 treated with BXM and 69 treated with OTV) and 410 household contacts (201 from trial, 209 by questionnaire) were included. The Poisson regression modeling showed that the SAR in household contacts of index cases treated with BXM and OTV was 10.8% and 18.5%, respectively; the adjusted relative reduction in SAR was 41.8% (95% confidence interval: 1.0%-65.7%, p = 0.0456) greater with BXM than OTV. Similar reductions were found in contacts from the trial and those included by questionnaire. CONCLUSION: BXM treatment of index cases appeared to result in a greater reduction in secondary household transmission than OTV treatment.

Wastewater-based reproduction numbers and projections of COVID-19 cases in three areas in Japan, November 2021 to December 2022.

BackgroundWastewater surveillance has expanded globally as a means to monitor spread of infectious diseases. An inherent challenge is substantial noise and bias in wastewater data because of the sampling and quantification process, limiting the applicability of wastewater surveillance as a monitoring tool.AimTo present an analytical framework for capturing the growth trend of circulating infections from wastewater data and conducting scenario analyses to guide policy decisions.MethodsWe developed a mathematical model for translating the observed SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater into effective reproduction numbers. We used an extended Kalman filter to infer underlying transmissions by smoothing out observational noise. We also illustrated the impact of different countermeasures such as expanded vaccinations and non-pharmaceutical interventions on the projected number of cases using three study areas in Japan during 2021-22 as an example.ResultsObserved notified cases were matched with the range of cases estimated by our approach with wastewater data only, across different study areas and virus quantification methods, especially when the disease prevalence was high. Estimated reproduction numbers derived from wastewater data were consistent with notification-based reproduction numbers. Our projections showed that a 10-20% increase in vaccination coverage or a 10% reduction in contact rate may suffice to initiate a declining trend in study areas.ConclusionOur study demonstrates how wastewater data can be used to track reproduction numbers and perform scenario modelling to inform policy decisions. The proposed framework complements conventional clinical surveillance, especially when reliable and timely epidemiological data are not available.

Ensitrelvir in patients with SARS-CoV-2: A retrospective chart review.

Antivirals with proven effectiveness against the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant are required for COVID-19 treatment in hospitalized patients, particularly those with severe underlying conditions. Ensitrelvir, a 3C-like protease inhibitor, received emergency approval in Japan in November 2022, based on evidence of rapid symptom resolution in non-hospitalized patients, but confirmation of its effectiveness in hospitalized patients is lacking. This retrospective chart review reports outcomes for all patients who received ensitrelvir whilst hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infection at Rinku General Medical Center, Japan (November 2022-April 2023). Thirty-two hospitalized patients received 5 days of ensitrelvir treatment (375 mg loading dose, 125 mg as maintenance dose). Patients' mean age was 73.5 years and most had mild COVID-19. Patients exhibited various underlying diseases, most commonly hypertension (78.1%) and chronic kidney disease (25.0%). Seven (21.9%) patients were on hemodialysis. The most common concomitant medications were antihypertensives (59.4%) and corticosteroids (31.3%); 2 (6.3%) patients were being treated with rituximab; 28 (87.5%) patients had viral persistence following pre-treatment by remdesivir. Following ensitrelvir treatment, viral clearance was recorded in 18 (56.3%) patients by Day 6 and 25 (78.1%) patients at final measurement. All patients experienced clinical improvement as assessed by the investigator at Day 5. No intensive care unit admissions or deaths due to COVID-19 occurred. No new safety signals were observed. In conclusion, positive virological outcomes were observed following ensitrelvir treatment, in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 in a real-world setting, including high-risk patients, who failed previous antiviral therapy. These results require confirmation in more extensive studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UMIN000051300.

Impact of meteorological and demographic factors on the influenza epidemic in Japan: a large observational database study.

Factors affecting the start date of the influenza epidemic season and total number of infected persons per 1,000,000 population in 47 prefectures of Japan were evaluated. This retrospective observational study (September 2014-August 2019; N = 472,740-883,804) evaluated data from a Japanese health insurance claims database. Single and multiple regression analyses evaluated the time to start of the epidemic or total infected persons per 1,000,000 population with time to absolute humidity (AH) or number of days with AH (≤ 5.5, ≤ 6.0, ≤ 6.5, and ≤ 7.0), total visitors (first epidemic month or per day), and total population. For the 2014/15, 2015/16, and 2016/17 seasons, a weak-to-moderate positive correlation (R2: 0.042-0.417) was observed between time to start of the epidemic and time to first day with AH below the cutoff values. Except in the 2016/17 season (R2: 0.089), a moderate correlation was reported between time to start of the epidemic and the total population (R2: 0.212-0.401). For all seasons, multiple regression analysis showed negative R2 for time to start of the epidemic and total visitors and population density (positive for time to AH ≤ 7.0). The earlier the climate becomes suitable for virus transmission and the higher the human mobility (more visitors and higher population density), the earlier the epidemic season tends to begin.

Comparison of Intra-Familial Transmission of Influenza Virus From Index Patients Treated With Baloxavir Marboxil or Oseltamivir Using an Influenza Transmission Model and a Health Insurance Claims Database.

BACKGROUND: Influenza affects approximately a billion people globally, including > 10 million Japanese individuals every year. Baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir [BXM]; a selective cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor) is approved for influenza treatment in Japan. We compared the incidence of intra-familial transmission of influenza between BXM and oseltamivir (OTV) treatments using a simulation model. METHODS: Using the JMDC Claims Database, we identified index case (IC) as the first family member diagnosed with influenza during the 2018-19 influenza season, and classified the families into BXM or OTV group per the drug dispensed to ICs. Using a novel influenza intra-familial infection model, we simulated the duration of influenza infection in ICs based on agent-specific virus shedding periods. Intra-familial infections were defined as non-IC family members infected during the agent-specific viral shedding period in ICs. The virus incubation periods in the non-IC family members were considered to exclude secondary infections from potentially external exposure. The primary endpoint was proportion of families with intra-familial infections. For between-group comparisons, we used a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS: The median proportion of families with intra-familial transmission was 9.57% and 19.35% in the BXM (N = 84 672) and OTV (N = 62 004) groups, respectively. The multivariate odds ratio of 1.73 (2.5th-97.5th percentiles, 1.68-1.77) indicated a substantially higher incidence of intra-familial infections in the OTV group versus the BXM group. Subgroup analyses by ICs' age category, virus type, and month of onset revealed similar trends favoring BXM. CONCLUSIONS: BXM treatment of ICs may contribute to a greater reduction in intra-familial influenza transmission than OTV treatment.

Comparison of the incidence of bleeding between baloxavir marboxil and other anti-influenza drugs among outpatients with influenza virus infection: A retrospective cohort study using an employment-based health insurance claims database in Japan.

PURPOSE: Alerts for bleeding events are included in the Japanese package inserts of some anti-influenza drugs, including baloxavir marboxil and oseltamivir. However, there are few reports on the incidence of bleeding events during treatment with anti-influenza drugs. This large-scale quantitative assessment compared the incidence of bleeding events in influenza patients treated with baloxavir and other anti-influenza drugs and in untreated patients. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used a large-scale Japanese employment-based health insurance claims database provided by JMDC Inc. and included outpatients diagnosed with influenza between October 1, 2018 and April 11, 2019. Bleeding events were identified by International Classification of Diseases 10th revision codes. Incidences were compared between patients treated with baloxavir or neuraminidase inhibitors and untreated patients. Odds ratios were calculated after exact matching to adjust for potential confounders. RESULTS: Among 529 201 influenza episodes, 30 964 were untreated and 498 237 were treated with anti-influenza drugs: baloxavir, 207 630; oseltamivir, 143 722; zanamivir, 28 208; peramivir, 5304; laninamivir, 113 373. Crude incidence proportions for total bleeding up to 20 days after influenza diagnosis were similar among treated groups, with a slightly higher value for peramivir (0.21% vs. 0.19% for baloxavir, oseltamivir, zanamivir, and laninamivir), and 0.30% in untreated patients. After exact matching, the incidence of bleeding for baloxavir was similar to that for other anti-influenza treatments (odds ratios for baloxavir were 0.90-0.99 compared to other therapies). CONCLUSIONS: Based on real-world observation using a large-scale claims database, a similar incidence of bleeding events was observed in recipients of the different anti-influenza drugs.

Serum surfactant protein D as a predictive biomarker for the efficacy of pirfenidone in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a post-hoc analysis of the phase 3 trial in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive, fatal disorder with a variable disease course. The recent advancement of antifibrotic therapy has increased the need for reliable and specific biomarkers. This study aimed to assess alveolar epithelial biomarkers as predictors for the efficacy of the antifibrotic drug pirfenidone. METHODS: We conducted a post-hoc analysis of the prospective, multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial of pirfenidone in Japan (total, n = 267; pirfenidone, n = 163; placebo, n = 104). Logistic regression analysis was performed to extract parameters that predicted disease progression, defined by a ≥ 10% relative decline in vital capacity (VC) from baseline and/or death, at week 52. For assessment of serum surfactant protein (SP)-D, SP-A and Krebs von den Lungen (KL)-6, all patients were dichotomized by the median concentration of each biomarker at baseline to the high and low biomarker subgroups. Associations of these concentrations were examined with changes in VC at each time point from baseline up to week 52, along with progression-free survival (PFS). Additionally, the effect of pirfenidone treatment on serial longitudinal concentrations of these biomarkers were evaluated. RESULTS: In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, body mass index (BMI), %VC and SP-D in the pirfenidone group, and BMI and %VC in the placebo group were indicated as predictors of disease progression. Pirfenidone treatment reduced the decline in VC with statistical significance in the low SP-D and low SP-A subgroups over most of the treatment period, and also prolonged PFS in the low SP-D and low KL-6 subgroups. Furthermore, SP-D levels over time course were reduced in the pirfenidone group from as early as week 8 until the 52-week treatment period compared with the placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: Serum SP-D was the most consistent biomarker for the efficacy of pirfenidone in the cohort trial of IPF. Serial measurements of SP-D might have a potential for application as a pharmacodynamic biomarker. Trial registration The clinical trial was registered with the Japan Pharmaceutical Information Center (JAPIC) on September 13, 2005 (registration No. JapicCTI-050121; http://Clinicaltrials.jp ).