Tailoring Risk Prediction Models to Local Populations.

Importance: Risk estimation is an integral part of cardiovascular care. Local recalibration of guideline-recommended models could address the limitations of existing tools. Objective: To provide a machine learning (ML) approach to augment the performance of the American Heart Association's Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events (AHA-PREVENT) equations when applied to a local population while preserving clinical interpretability. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a New England-based electronic health record cohort of patients without prior atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) who had the data necessary to calculate the AHA-PREVENT 10-year risk of developing ASCVD in the event period (2007-2016). Patients with prior ASCVD events, death prior to 2007, or age 79 years or older in 2007 were subsequently excluded. The final study population of 95 326 patients was split into 3 nonoverlapping subsets for training, testing, and validation. The AHA-PREVENT model was adapted to this local population using the open-source ML model (MLM) Extreme Gradient Boosting model (XGBoost) with minimal predictor variables, including age, sex, and AHA-PREVENT. The MLM was monotonically constrained to preserve known associations between risk factors and ASCVD risk. Along with sex, race and ethnicity data from the electronic health record were collected to validate the performance of ASCVD risk prediction in subgroups. Data were analyzed from August 2021 to February 2024. Main Outcomes and Measures: Consistent with the AHA-PREVENT model, ASCVD events were defined as the first occurrence of either nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary artery disease, ischemic stroke, or cardiovascular death. Cardiovascular death was coded via government registries. Discrimination, calibration, and risk reclassification were assessed using the Harrell C index, a modified Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration curves, and reclassification tables, respectively. Results: In the test set of 38 137 patients (mean [SD] age, 64.8 [6.9] years, 22 708 [59.5]% women and 15 429 [40.5%] men; 935 [2.5%] Asian, 2153 [5.6%] Black, 1414 [3.7%] Hispanic, 31 400 [82.3%] White, and 2235 [5.9%] other, including American Indian, multiple races, unspecified, and unrecorded, consolidated owing to small numbers), MLM-PREVENT had improved calibration (modified Hosmer-Lemeshow P > .05) compared to the AHA-PREVENT model across risk categories in the overall cohort (χ23 = 2.2; P = .53 vs χ23 > 16.3; P < .001) and sex subgroups (men: χ23 = 2.1; P = .55 vs χ23 > 16.3; P < .001; women: χ23 = 6.5; P = .09 vs. χ23 > 16.3; P < .001), while also surpassing a traditional recalibration approach. MLM-PREVENT maintained or improved AHA-PREVENT's calibration in Asian, Black, and White individuals. Both MLM-PREVENT and AHA-PREVENT performed equally well in discriminating risk (approximate ΔC index, ±0.01). Using a clinically significant 7.5% risk threshold, MLM-PREVENT reclassified a total of 11.5% of patients. We visualize the recalibration through MLM-PREVENT ASCVD risk charts that highlight preserved risk associations of the original AHA-PREVENT model. Conclusions and Relevance: The interpretable ML approach presented in this article enhanced the accuracy of the AHA-PREVENT model when applied to a local population while still preserving the risk associations found by the original model. This method has the potential to recalibrate other established risk tools and is implementable in electronic health record systems for improved cardiovascular risk assessment.

Plasma Levels of Polyols Erythritol, Mannitol, and Sorbitol and Incident Coronary Heart Disease Among Women.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Erythritol, a sugar alcohol (polyol), has recently been linked to the risks of major adverse cardiovascular events. We investigated whether plasma erythritol and other polyols (mannitol/sorbitol) were associated with the risk of incident coronary heart disease (CHD). METHODS: This prospective nested case-control study included 762 incident cases of CHD and 762 controls from the Nurses' Health Study. Plasma concentrations of polyols were measured at baseline (1989-90 or 2000-02). Associations of erythritol with cardiometabolic risk factors were also analyzed in the Women's Lifestyle Validation Study (n=728; blood collected in 2010-12). RESULTS: Higher erythritol levels were related to more adverse cardiometabolic risk factor status. The relative risk (RR) for CHD per 1-SD increment was 1.15 [95% CI: 1.04, 1.28] for erythritol and 1.16 [1.05, 1.28] for mannitol/sorbitol, after adjusting for diet quality, lifestyles, and adiposity. Compared with women in the lowest quartile, those in the highest quartile (Q4) of erythritol had a RR 1.55 [1.13, 2.14] for CHD. The RR in Q4 of erythritol was 1.61 [1.15, 2.24; p=0.006] when hypertension and dyslipidemia were further added to the model; the RR was 1.21 [0.86, 1.70] after adjustment for diabetes. For mannitol/sorbitol, the RR in the Q4 was 1.42 [1.05, 1.91; p=0.022] for CHD in the multivariable-adjusted model including diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Higher plasma erythritol and mannitol/sorbitol were related to elevated risks of CHD even after adjustment for diet, lifestyles, adiposity, and other risk factors. The unfavorable association of mannitol/sorbitol, but not erythritol, with CHD risk remained significant independently of diabetes/hyperglycemia.

The present study shows unfavorable associations of circulating erythritol and mannitol/sorbitol with long-term coronary heart disease (CHD) risk even after adjustments for overall diet quality, lifestyle factors, and several other traditional CHD risk factors among women at usual risk. In contrast to mannitol/sorbitol, the association between high erythritol levels and increased CHD risk was no longer significant upon additional inclusion of diabetes in the multivariable-adjusted model. Our findings from the two independent study populations of women without prior CHD suggest endogenous and exogenous erythritol levels are related to unfavorable cardiometabolic risk factor status.

Broadcasters, receivers, functional groups of metabolites, and the link to heart failure by revealing metabolomic network connectivity.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Blood-based small molecule metabolites offer easy accessibility and hold significant potential for insights into health processes, the impact of lifestyle, and genetic variation on disease, enabling precise risk prevention. In a prospective study with records of heart failure (HF) incidence, we present metabolite profiling data from individuals without HF at baseline. METHODS: We uncovered the interconnectivity of metabolites using data-driven and causal networks augmented with polygenic factors. Exploring the networks, we identified metabolite broadcasters, receivers, mediators, and subnetworks corresponding to functional classes of metabolites, and provided insights into the link between metabolomic architecture and regulation in health. We incorporated the network structure into the identification of metabolites associated with HF to control the effect of confounding metabolites. RESULTS: We identified metabolites associated with higher and lower risk of HF incidence, such as glycine, ureidopropionic and glycocholic acids, and LPC 18:2. These associations were not confounded by the other metabolites due to uncovering the connectivity among metabolites and adjusting each association for the confounding metabolites. Examples of our findings include the direct influence of asparagine on glycine, both of which were inversely associated with HF. These two metabolites were influenced by polygenic factors and only essential amino acids, which are not synthesized in the human body and are obtained directly from the diet. CONCLUSION: Metabolites may play a critical role in linking genetic background and lifestyle factors to HF incidence. Revealing the underlying connectivity of metabolites associated with HF strengthens the findings and facilitates studying complex conditions like HF.

One-Year Effects of High-Intensity Statin on Bioactive Lipids: Findings From the JUPITER Trial.

BACKGROUND: Statin effects extend beyond low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction, potentially modulating the metabolism of bioactive lipids (BALs), crucial for biological signaling and inflammation. These bioactive metabolites may serve as metabolic footprints, helping uncover underlying processes linked to pleiotropic effects of statins and yielding a better understanding of their cardioprotective properties. This study aimed to investigate the impact of high-intensity statin therapy versus placebo on plasma BALs in the JUPITER trial (Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin; NCT00239681), a randomized primary prevention trial involving individuals with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol <130 mg/dL and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein ≥2 mg/L. METHODS: Using a nontargeted mass spectrometry approach, over 11 000 lipid features were assayed from baseline and 1-year plasma samples from cardiovascular disease noncases from 2 nonoverlapping nested substudies: JUPITERdiscovery (n=589) and JUPITERvalidation (n=409). The effect of randomized allocation of rosuvastatin 20 mg versus placebo on BALs was examined by fitting a linear regression with delta values (∆=year 1-baseline) adjusted for age and baseline levels of each feature. Significant associations in discovery were analyzed in the validation cohort. Multiple comparisons were adjusted using 2-stage overall false discovery rate. RESULTS: We identified 610 lipid features associated with statin randomization with significant replication (overall false discovery rate, <0.05), including 26 with annotations. Statin therapy significantly increased levels of 276 features, including BALs with anti-inflammatory activity and arterial vasodilation properties. Concurrently, 334 features were significantly lowered by statin therapy, including arachidonic acid and proinflammatory and proplatelet aggregation BALs. By contrast, statin therapy reduced an eicosapentaenoic acid-derived hydroxyeicosapentaenoic acid metabolite, which may be related to impaired glucose metabolism. Additionally, we observed sex-related differences in 6 lipid metabolites and 6 unknown features. CONCLUSIONS: Statin allocation was significantly associated with upregulation of BALs with anti-inflammatory, antiplatelet aggregation and antioxidant properties and downregulation of BALs with proinflammatory and proplatelet aggregation activity, supporting the pleiotropic effects of statins beyond low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction.

Mediterranean Diet Adherence and Risk of All-Cause Mortality in Women.

Importance: Higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet has been associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality, but data on underlying molecular mechanisms over long follow-up are limited. Objectives: To investigate Mediterranean diet adherence and risk of all-cause mortality and to examine the relative contribution of cardiometabolic factors to this risk reduction. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included initially healthy women from the Women's Health Study, who had provided blood samples, biomarker measurements, and dietary information. Baseline data included self-reported demographics and a validated food-frequency questionnaire. The data collection period was from April 1993 to January 1996, and data analysis took place from June 2018 to November 2023. Exposures: Mediterranean diet score (range, 0-9) was computed based on 9 dietary components. Main Outcome and Measures: Thirty-three blood biomarkers, including traditional and novel lipid, lipoprotein, apolipoprotein, inflammation, insulin resistance, and metabolism measurements, were evaluated at baseline using standard assays and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Mortality and cause of death were determined from medical and death records. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for Mediterranean diet adherence and mortality risk, and mediation analyses were used to calculate the mediated effect of different biomarkers in understanding this association. Results: Among 25 315 participants, the mean (SD) baseline age was 54.6 (7.1) years, with 329 (1.3%) Asian women, 406 (1.6%) Black women, 240 (0.9%) Hispanic women, 24 036 (94.9%) White women, and 95 (0.4%) women with other race and ethnicity; the median (IQR) Mediterranean diet adherence score was 4.0 (3.0-5.0). Over a mean (SD) of 24.7 (4.8) years of follow-up, 3879 deaths occurred. Compared with low Mediterranean diet adherence (score 0-3), adjusted risk reductions were observed for middle (score 4-5) and upper (score 6-9) groups, with HRs of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.78-0.90) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.70-0.84), respectively (P for trend < .001). Further adjusting for lifestyle factors attenuated the risk reductions, but they remained statistically significant (middle adherence group: HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.85-0.99]; upper adherence group: HR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.82-0.98]; P for trend = .001). Of the biomarkers examined, small molecule metabolites and inflammatory biomarkers contributed most to the lower mortality risk (explaining 14.8% and 13.0%, respectively, of the association), followed by triglyceride-rich lipoproteins (10.2%), body mass index (10.2%), and insulin resistance (7.4%). Other pathways, including branched-chain amino acids, high-density lipoproteins, low-density lipoproteins, glycemic measures, and hypertension, had smaller contributions (<3%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet was associated with 23% lower risk of all-cause mortality. This inverse association was partially explained by multiple cardiometabolic factors.

Lipoprotein Insulin Resistance Score and Mortality Risk Stratification in Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Higher total serum cholesterol is associated with lower mortality in heart failure. Evaluating associations between lipoprotein subfractions and mortality among people with heart failure may provide insights into this observation. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled a community cohort of people with heart failure from 2003 to 2012 and assessed vital status through 2021. Plasma collected at enrollment was used to measure lipoprotein subfractions via nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. A composite score of 6 lipoprotein subfractions was generated using the lipoprotein insulin resistance index (LP-IR) algorithm. Using covariate-adjusted proportional hazards regression models, we evaluated associations between LP-IR score and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1382 patients with heart failure (median follow-up 13.9 years), a one-standard-deviation (SD) increment in LP-IR score was associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97-0.99). Among LP-IR parameters, mean high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particle size was significantly associated with lower mortality (HR per 1-SD decrement in mean HDL particle size = 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.89), suggesting that the inverse association between LP-IR score and mortality may be driven by smaller mean HDL particle size. CONCLUSIONS: LP-IR score was inversely associated with mortality among patients with heart failure and may be driven by smaller HDL particle size.

Plasma Biomarker Profiles for Premature and Nonpremature Coronary Heart Disease in Women.

BACKGROUND: Premature coronary heart disease (CHD) is a major cause of death in women. We aimed to characterize biomarker profiles of women who developed CHD before and after age 65 years. METHODS: In the Women's Health Study (median follow-up 21.5 years), women were grouped by age and timing of incident CHD: baseline age <65 years with premature CHD by age 65 years (25 042 women; 447 events) and baseline age ≥65 years with nonpremature CHD (2982 women; 351 events). Associations of 44 baseline plasma biomarkers measured using standard assays and a nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)-metabolomics assay were analyzed using Cox models adjusted for clinical risk factors. RESULTS: Twelve biomarkers showed associations only with premature CHD and included lipoprotein(a), which was associated with premature CHD [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) per SD: 1.29 (95% CI 1.17-1.42)] but not with nonpremature CHD [1.09(0.98-1.22)](Pinteraction = 0.02). NMR-measured lipoprotein insulin resistance was associated with the highest risk of premature CHD [1.92 (1.52-2.42)] but was not associated with nonpremature CHD (Pinteraction <0.001). Eleven biomarkers showed stronger associations with premature vs nonpremature CHD, including apolipoprotein B. Nine NMR biomarkers showed no association with premature or nonpremature CHD, whereas 12 biomarkers showed similar significant associations with premature and nonpremature CHD, respectively, including low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol [1.30(1.20-1.45) and 1.22(1.10-1.35)] and C-reactive protein [1.34(1.19-1.50) and 1.25(1.08-1.44)]. CONCLUSIONS: In women, a profile of 12 biomarkers was selectively associated with premature CHD, driven by lipoprotein(a) and insulin-resistant atherogenic dyslipoproteinemia. This has implications for the development of biomarker panels to screen for premature CHD.

Joint effects of one year of marine omega-3 fatty acid supplementation and participant dietary fish intake upon circulating lipid mediators of inflammation resolution in a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the joint effects of omega (n)-3 fatty acid supplementation and dietary fish intake on systemic lipid mediators of inflammation among adults. METHODS: Within VITAL, a double-blind randomized controlled trial, adults were randomized to ω-3 fatty acids (460 mg EPA + 380 mg DHA/d) or placebo. We selected participants who reported low (<1 serving/mo) baseline dietary fish intake and matched them by age, sex, race, and trial arm to participants with self-reported highest fish intake (≥3.9 servings/wk). Baseline and 1-y plasma samples were tested for 9 ω-3 fatty acid-derived lipid mediators. Multivariable linear models assessed lipid mediator changes and joint effects of ω-3 fatty acid supplementation and dietary fish intake. RESULTS: Forty-eight participants with low baseline fish intake were matched to 48 with high fish intake. Mean age was 64.6 (±7.26), 50% were female, and 85% non-Hispanic white. One-year lipid mediator changes in expected directions were observed in those receiving ω-3 fatty acids versus placebo: reductions in proinflammatory mediators, PGD2, 5-HETE, and 12-HETE; increases in proresolving mediators, EPA and DHA. Larger 1-y lipid biomarker changes were seen in those with low baseline fish intake randomized to active ω-3 fatty acids for DHA, EPA, PGD2, Resolvin D1, and Resolvin D4 were observed, although no significant multiplicative interactions were detected. DISCUSSION: Beneficial changes in circulating proresolving and proinflammatory mediators were found with 1-y of ω-3 fatty acid supplementation versus placebo for all participants, with a trend toward larger effects among those with low baseline fish intake, although interactions were not significant.

N-Glycosylation Profiles of Immunoglobulin G and Future Cardiovascular Events.

BACKGROUND: Posttranslational glycosylation of IgG can modulate its inflammatory capacity through structural variations. We examined the association of baseline IgG N-glycans and an IgG glycan score with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: IgG N-glycans were measured in 2 nested CVD case-control studies: JUPITER (Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin; NCT00239681; primary prevention; discovery; Npairs=162); and TNT trial (Treating to New Targets; NCT00327691; secondary prevention; validation; Npairs=397). Using conditional logistic regression, we investigated the association of future CVD with baseline IgG N-glycans and a glycan score adjusting for clinical risk factors (statin treatment, age, sex, race, lipids, hypertension, and smoking) in JUPITER. Significant associations were validated in TNT, using a similar model further adjusted for diabetes. Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, an IgG glycan score was derived in JUPITER as a linear combination of selected IgG N-glycans. RESULTS: Six IgG N-glycans were associated with CVD in both studies: an agalactosylated glycan (IgG-GP4) was positively associated, while 3 digalactosylated glycans (IgG glycan peaks 12, 13, 14) and 2 monosialylated glycans (IgG glycan peaks 18, 20) were negatively associated with CVD after multiple testing correction (overall false discovery rate <0.05). Four selected IgG N-glycans comprised the IgG glycan score, which was associated with CVD in JUPITER (adjusted hazard ratio per glycan score SD, 2.08 [95% CI, 1.52-2.84]) and validated in TNT (adjusted hazard ratio per SD, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.03-1.39]). The area under the curve changed from 0.693 for the model without the score to 0.728 with the score in JUPITER (PLRT=1.1×10-6) and from 0.635 to 0.637 in TNT (PLRT=0.017). CONCLUSIONS: An IgG N-glycan profile was associated with incident CVD in 2 populations (primary and secondary prevention), involving an agalactosylated glycan associated with increased risk of CVD, while several digalactosylated and sialylated IgG glycans associated with decreased risk. An IgG glycan score was positively associated with future CVD.

Refinement of a published gene-physical activity interaction impacting HDL-cholesterol: role of sex and lipoprotein subfractions.

Large-scale gene-environment interaction (GxE) discovery efforts often involve compromises in the definition of outcomes and choice of covariates for the sake of data harmonization and statistical power. Consequently, refinement of exposures, covariates, outcomes, and population subsets may be helpful to establish often-elusive replication and evaluate potential clinical utility. Here, we used additional datasets, an expanded set of statistical models, and interrogation of lipoprotein metabolism via nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)-based lipoprotein subfractions to refine a previously discovered GxE modifying the relationship between physical activity (PA) and HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C). This GxE was originally identified by Kilpeläinen et al., with the strongest cohort-specific signal coming from the Women's Genome Health Study (WGHS). We thus explored this GxE further in the WGHS (N = 23,294), with follow-up in the UK Biobank (UKB; N = 281,380), and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA; N = 4,587). Self-reported PA (MET-hrs/wk), genotypes at rs295849 (nearest gene: LHX1), and NMR metabolomics data were available in all three cohorts. As originally reported, minor allele carriers of rs295849 in WGHS had a stronger positive association between PA and HDL-C (pint = 0.002). When testing a range of NMR metabolites (primarily lipoprotein and lipid subfractions) to refine the HDL-C outcome, we found a stronger interaction effect on medium-sized HDL particle concentrations (M-HDL-P; pint = 1.0×10-4) than HDL-C. Meta-regression revealed a systematically larger interaction effect in cohorts from the original meta-analysis with a greater fraction of women (p = 0.018). In the UKB, GxE effects were stronger both in women and using M-HDL-P as the outcome. In MESA, the primary interaction for HDL-C showed nominal significance (pint = 0.013), but without clear differences by sex and with a greater magnitude using large, rather than medium, HDL-P as an outcome. Towards reconciling these observations, further exploration leveraging NMR platform-specific HDL subfraction diameter annotations revealed modest agreement across all cohorts in the interaction affecting medium-to-large particles. Taken together, our work provides additional insights into a specific known gene-PA interaction while illustrating the importance of phenotype and model refinement towards understanding and replicating GxEs.

Apolipoprotein E and Its Association With Cognitive Change and Modification of Treatment Effects of Vitamin D3 and Omega-3s on Cognitive Change: Results From the In-Clinic Subset of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Apolipoprotein E (APOE)-ε4 allele is associated with cognitive decline; however, its potential to modify effects of vitamin D3 and omega-3s supplementation on later-life cognition is unclear. Our objectives were to estimate among the in-clinic subset of a randomized trial: (1) associations between APOE-ε4 and global and domain-specific cognitive change, with exploration of potential sex and race differences; and (2) modification by APOE-ε4 of effects of vitamin D3 and omega-3s supplementation on cognitive change. METHODS: From an ancillary study of depression prevention within a completed 2 × 2 factorial trial testing vitamin D3 (2 000 IU per day), omega-3s (1 g per day), and/or placebos, we included 743 older adults with baseline in-person neuropsychiatric assessments and APOE genotyping data. The primary outcome was change in global cognition (averaging z-scores of 9 tests) over 2 years. Secondarily, episodic memory and executive function/attention z-scores were examined. General linear models of response profiles with multiplicative interaction terms were constructed; stratified results were reported. RESULTS: Mean age (standard deviation) was 67.1 (5.3) years; 50.6% were females; 24.9% were APOE-ε4 carriers. Compared to noncarriers, APOE-ε4 carriers had worse 2-year change in global cognition and episodic memory; differences were more apparent among females than males. There was no variation by race in APOE-ε4 associations with cognition. APOE-ε4 did not significantly modify effects of vitamin D3 or omega-3s, compared to placebo, on change in global cognition, episodic memory, or executive function/attention. CONCLUSIONS: APOE-ε4 was associated with worse cognition but did not modify overall effects of vitamin D3 or omega-3 supplementation on cognition over 2 years.

Effect of Daily Vitamin D Supplementation on Risk of Upper Respiratory Infection in Older Adults: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Among individuals with vitamin D deficiency, daily vitamin D supplementation appears to lower risk of acute respiratory infection. However, recent trials, in different populations and using different regimens, have yielded null results. We investigated the effect of daily vitamin D supplementation (vs placebo) on risk of upper respiratory infection (URI) in older adults. METHODS: The VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL) is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of supplemental vitamin D and/or omega-3 fatty acids in generally healthy men (age ≥50 years) and women (age ≥55 years). This prespecified analysis focuses on vitamin D3 (2000 IU/day) versus placebo in the 15 804 (61%) participants with baseline serum total 25-hydroxyvitamin D level. The primary outcome was self-report of a recent URI at 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: Participants had a mean age of 68 years and 51% were women; 76% were non-Hispanic White, 16% Black, and 8% other race/ethnicity. The mean 25-hydroxyvitamin D level at baseline was 31 (standard deviation, 10) ng/mL, with <12 ng/mL in 2.4%. The overall effect of vitamin D supplementation on recent URI was nonsignificant (odds ratio [OR], 0.96 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .86-1.06]). In the prespecified subgroup of primary interest (<12 ng/mL and denied taking concurrent vitamin D), which had only 255 participants, vitamin D supplementation was nonsignificant (OR, 0.60 [95% CI, .28-1.30]). Statistical power to assess effect modification in other subgroups was limited. CONCLUSIONS: In older adults not selected for vitamin D deficiency, supplemental vitamin D did not lower URI risk overall. Whether effects differ in subgroups requires further study. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT01169259.

Omega-3 Blood Levels and Stroke Risk: A Pooled and Harmonized Analysis of 183 291 Participants From 29 Prospective Studies.

BACKGROUND: The effect of marine omega-3 PUFAs on risk of stroke remains unclear. METHODS: We investigated the associations between circulating and tissue omega-3 PUFA levels and incident stroke (total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic) in 29 international prospective cohorts. Each site conducted a de novo individual-level analysis using a prespecified analytical protocol with defined exposures, covariates, analytical methods, and outcomes; the harmonized data from the studies were then centrally pooled. Multivariable-adjusted HRs and 95% CIs across omega-3 PUFA quintiles were computed for each stroke outcome. RESULTS: Among 183 291 study participants, there were 10 561 total strokes, 8220 ischemic strokes, and 1142 hemorrhagic strokes recorded over a median of 14.3 years follow-up. For eicosapentaenoic acid, comparing quintile 5 (Q5, highest) with quintile 1 (Q1, lowest), total stroke incidence was 17% lower (HR, 0.83 [CI, 0.76-0.91]; P<0.0001), and ischemic stroke was 18% lower (HR, 0.82 [CI, 0.74-0.91]; P<0.0001). For docosahexaenoic acid, comparing Q5 with Q1, there was a 12% lower incidence of total stroke (HR, 0.88 [CI, 0.81-0.96]; P=0.0001) and a 14% lower incidence of ischemic stroke (HR, 0.86 [CI, 0.78-0.95]; P=0.0001). Neither eicosapentaenoic acid nor docosahexaenoic acid was associated with a risk for hemorrhagic stroke. These associations were not modified by either baseline history of AF or prevalent CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Higher omega-3 PUFA levels are associated with lower risks of total and ischemic stroke but have no association with hemorrhagic stroke.

Marine n-3 Fatty Acids and Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: A Novel Analysis of the VITAL Trial Using Win Ratio and Hierarchical Composite Outcomes.

This study aimed to investigate whether n-3 fatty acid supplementation reduced cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in a novel analysis using hierarchical composite CVD outcomes based on win ratio in the VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL). This was a secondary analysis of our VITAL randomized trial, which assessed the effects of marine n-3 fatty acids (1 g/day) and vitamin D3 on incident CVD and cancer among healthy older adults (n = 25,871). The primary analysis estimated win ratios of a composite of major CVD outcomes prioritized as fatal coronary heart disease, other fatal CVD including stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), and non-fatal stroke, comparing n-3 fatty acids to placebo. The primary result was a nonsignificant benefit of this supplementation for the prioritized primary CVD outcome (reciprocal win ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.90 [0.78-1.04]), similar to the 0.92 (0.80-1.06) hazard ratio in our original time-to-first event analysis without outcome prioritization. Its benefits came from reducing MI (0.71 [0.57-0.88]) but not stroke (1.01 [0.80 to 1.28]) components. For the primary CVD outcome, participants with low fish consumption at baseline benefited (0.79 [0.65-0.96]) more than those with high consumption (1.05 [0.85-1.30]). These results are consistent with, but slightly stronger than, those without outcome prioritization.

The Mediterranean Diet, Cardiometabolic Biomarkers, and Risk of All-Cause Mortality: A 25-Year Follow-Up Study of the Women's Health Study.

Background: Higher consumption of Mediterranean diet (MED) intake has been associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality but limited data are available examining long-term outcomes in women or the underlying molecular mechanisms of this inverse association in human populations. We aimed to investigate the association of MED intake with long-term risk of all-cause mortality in women and to better characterize the relative contribution of traditional and novel cardiometabolic factors to the MED-related risk reduction in morality. Methods: In a prospective cohort study of 25,315 initially healthy women from the Women's Health Study, we assessed dietary MED intake using a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire according to the usual 9-category measure of MED adherence. Baseline levels of more than thirty cardiometabolic biomarkers were measured using standard assays and targeted nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, including lipids, lipoproteins, apolipoproteins, inflammation, glucose metabolism and insulin resistance, branched-chain amino acids, small metabolites, and clinical factors. Mortality and cause of death was ascertained prospectively through medical and death records. Results: During a mean follow-up of 25 years, 3,879 deaths were ascertained. Compared to the reference group of low MED intake (0-3, approximately the bottom tertile), and adjusting for age, treatment, and energy intake, risk reductions were observed for the middle and upper MED groups with respective HRs of 0.84 (95% CI 0.78-0.90) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84), p for trend <0.0001. Further adjusting for smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake and menopausal factors attenuated the risk reductions which remained significant with respective HRs of 0.92 (95% CI 0.85-0.99) and 0.89 (95% CI 0.82-0.98), p for trend 0.0011. Risk reductions were generally similar for CVD and non-CVD mortality. Small molecule metabolites (e.g., alanine and homocysteine) and inflammation made the largest contributions to lower mortality risk (accounting for 14.8% and 13.0% of the benefit of the MED-mortality association, respectively), followed by triglyceride-rich lipoproteins (10.2%), adiposity (10.2%) and insulin resistance (7.4%), with lesser contributions (<3%) from other pathways including branched-chain amino acids, high-density lipoproteins, low-density lipoproteins, glycemic measures, and hypertension. Conclusions: In the large-scale prospective Women's Health Study of 25,315 initially healthy US women followed for 25 years, higher MED intake was associated with approximately one fifth relative risk reduction in mortality. The inverse association was only partially explained by known novel and traditional cardiometabolic factors.

Broadcasters, receivers, functional groups of metabolites and the link to heart failure progression using polygenic factors.

In a prospective study with records of heart failure (HF) incidence, we present metabolite profiling data from individuals without HF at baseline. We uncovered the interconnectivity of metabolites using data-driven and causal networks augmented with polygenic factors. Exploring the networks, we identified metabolite broadcasters, receivers, mediators, and subnetworks corresponding to functional classes of metabolites, and provided insights into the link between metabolomic architecture and regulation in health. We incorporated the network structure into the identification of metabolites associated with HF to control the effect of confounding metabolites. We identified metabolites associated with higher or lower risk of HF incidence, the associations that were not confounded by the other metabolites, such as glycine, ureidopropionic and glycocholic acids, and LPC 18:2. We revealed the underlying relationships of the findings. For example, asparagine directly influenced glycine, and both were inversely associated with HF. These two metabolites were influenced by polygenic factors and only essential amino acids which are not synthesized in the human body and come directly from the diet. Metabolites may play a critical role in linking genetic background and lifestyle factors to HF progression. Revealing the underlying connectivity of metabolites associated with HF strengthens the findings and facilitates a mechanistic understanding of HF progression.