Overall survival and cause-specific mortality in a hospital-based cohort of retinoblastoma patients in São Paulo, Brazil.

Studies are lacking on long-term effects among retinoblastoma patients in low- and middle-income countries. Therefore, we examined cause-specific mortality in a retrospective cohort of retinoblastoma patients treated at Antonio Candido de Camargo Cancer Center (ACCCC), São Paulo, Brazil from 1986 to 2003 and followed up through December 31, 2018. Vital status and cause of death were ascertained from medical records and multiple national databases. We estimated overall and cause-specific survival using the Kaplan-Meier survival method, and estimated standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and absolute excess risk (AER) of death. This cohort study included 465 retinoblastoma patients (42% hereditary, 58% nonhereditary), with most (77%) patients diagnosed at advanced stages (IV or V). Over an 11-year average follow-up, 80 deaths occurred: 70% due to retinoblastoma, 22% due to subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) and 5% to non-cancer causes. The overall 5-year survival rate was 88% consistent across hereditary and nonhereditary patients (p = .67). Hereditary retinoblastoma patients faced an 86-fold higher risk of SMN-related death compared to the general population (N = 16, SMR = 86.1, 95% CI 52.7-140.5), corresponding to 42.4 excess deaths per 10,000 person-years. This risk remained consistent for those treated with radiotherapy and chemotherapy (N = 10, SMR = 90.3, 95% CI 48.6-167.8) and chemotherapy alone (N = 6, SMR = 80.0, 95% CI 35.9-177.9). Nonhereditary patients had only two SMN-related deaths (SMR = 7.2, 95% CI 1.8-28.7). There was no excess risk of non-cancer-related deaths in either retinoblastoma form. Findings from this cohort with a high proportion of advanced-stage patients and extensive chemotherapy use may help guide policy and healthcare planning, emphasizing the need to enhance early diagnosis and treatment access in less developed countries.

A Historical Survey of Key Epidemiological Studies of Ionizing Radiation Exposure.

In this article we review the history of key epidemiological studies of populations exposed to ionizing radiation. We highlight historical and recent findings regarding radiation-associated risks for incidence and mortality of cancer and non-cancer outcomes with emphasis on study design and methods of exposure assessment and dose estimation along with brief consideration of sources of bias for a few of the more important studies. We examine the findings from the epidemiological studies of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, persons exposed to radiation for diagnostic or therapeutic purposes, those exposed to environmental sources including Chornobyl and other reactor accidents, and occupationally exposed cohorts. We also summarize results of pooled studies. These summaries are necessarily brief, but we provide references to more detailed information. We discuss possible future directions of study, to include assessment of susceptible populations, and possible new populations, data sources, study designs and methods of analysis.

Cumulative incidence estimates for solid tumors after HCT in the CIBMTR and California Cancer Registry.

ABSTRACT: Compared with the general population, hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) survivors are at elevated risk for developing solid subsequent neoplasms (SNs). The Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) is a key resource for quantifying solid SN incidence following HCT, but the completeness of SN ascertainment is uncertain. Within a cohort of 18 450 CIBMTR patients linked to the California Cancer Registry (CCR), we evaluated the completeness of solid SN data reported to the CIBMTR from 1991 to 2018 to understand the implications of using CIBMTR data alone or combined with CCR data to quantify the burden of solid SNs after HCT. We estimated the cumulative incidence of developing a solid SN, accounting for the competing risk of death. Within the cohort, solid SNs were reported among 724 patients; 15.6% of these patients had an SN reported by CIBMTR only, 36.9% by CCR only, and 47.5% by both. The corresponding cumulative incidence of developing a solid SN at 10 years following a first HCT was 4.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.5-4.4) according to CIBMTR data only, 5.3% (95% CI, 4.9-5.9) according to CCR data only, and 6.3% (95% CI, 5.7-6.8) according to both sources combined. The patterns were similar for allogeneic and autologous HCT recipients. Linking detailed HCT information from CIBMTR with comprehensive SN data from cancer registries provides an opportunity to optimize SN ascertainment for informing follow-up care practices and evaluating risk factors in the growing population of HCT survivors.

Changes in sex-specific incidence of lymphoid neoplasms across the lifespan.

Not available.

Genomic characterization of cervical lymph node metastases in papillary thyroid carcinoma following the Chornobyl accident.

Childhood radioactive iodine exposure from the Chornobyl accident increased papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) risk. While cervical lymph node metastases (cLNM) are well-recognized in pediatric PTC, the PTC metastatic process and potential radiation association are poorly understood. Here, we analyze cLNM occurrence among 428 PTC with genomic landscape analyses and known drivers (131I-exposed = 349, unexposed = 79; mean age = 27.9 years). We show that cLNM are more frequent in PTC with fusion (55%) versus mutation (30%) drivers, although the proportion varies by specific driver gene (RET-fusion = 71%, BRAF-mutation = 38%, RAS-mutation = 5%). cLNM frequency is not associated with other characteristics, including radiation dose. cLNM molecular profiling (N = 47) demonstrates 100% driver concordance with matched primary PTCs and highly concordant mutational spectra. Transcriptome analysis reveals 17 differentially expressed genes, particularly in the HOXC cluster and BRINP3; the strongest differentially expressed microRNA also is near HOXC10. Our findings underscore the critical role of driver alterations and provide promising candidates for elucidating the biological underpinnings of PTC cLNM.

A novel method for rapid estimation of active bone marrow dose for radiotherapy patients in epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: In a dedicated effort to improve the assessment of clonal hematopoiesis (CH) and study leukemia risk following radiotherapy, we are developing a large-scale cohort study among cancer patients who received radiation. To that end, it will be critical to analyze dosimetric parameters of red bone marrow (ABM) exposure in relation to CH and its progression to myeloid neoplasms, requiring reconstruction method for ABM doses of a large-scale patients rapidly and accurately. PURPOSE: To support a large-scale cohort study on the assessment of clonal hematopoiesis and leukemia risk following radiotherapy, we present a new method for the rapid reconstruction of ABM doses of radiotherapy among cancer patients. METHODS: The key idea of the presented method is to segment patient bones rapidly and automatically by matching a whole-body computational human phantom, in which the skeletal system is divided into 34 bone sites, to patient CT images via 3D skeletal registration. The automatic approach was used to segment site-specific bones for 40 radiotherapy patients. Also, we segmented the bones manually. The bones segmented both manually and automatically were then combined with the patient dose matrix calculated by the treatment planning system (TPS) to derive patient ABM dose. We evaluated the performance of the automatic method in geometric and dosimetric accuracy by comparison with the manual approach. RESULTS: The pelvis showed the best geometric performance [volume overlap fraction (VOF): 52% (mean) with 23% (σ) and average distance (AD): 0.8 cm (mean) with 0.5 cm (σ)]. The pelvis also showed the best dosimetry performance [absorbed dose difference (ADD): 0.7 Gy (mean) with 1.0 Gy (σ)]. Some bones showed unsatisfactory performances such as the cervical vertebrae [ADD: 5.2 Gy (mean) with 10.8 Gy (σ)]. This impact on the total ABM dose, however, was not significant. An excellent agreement for the total ABM dose was indeed observed [ADD: 0.4 Gy (mean) with 0.4 Gy (σ)]. The computation time required for dose calculation using our method was robust (about one minute per patient). CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed that our method estimates ABM doses across treatment sites accurately, while providing high computational efficiency. The method will be used to reconstruct patient-specific ABM doses for dose-response assessment in a large cohort study. The method can also be applied to prospective dose calculation within a clinical TPS to support clinical decision making at the point of care.

Association between diabetes and subsequent malignancy risk among older breast cancer survivors.

Type II diabetes is associated with cancer risk in the general population but has not been well studied as a risk factor for subsequent malignancies among cancer survivors. We investigated the association between diabetes and subsequent cancer risk among older (66-84 years), 1-year breast cancer survivors within the linked Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database using Cox regression analyses to quantify hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Among 133 324 women, 29.3% were diagnosed with diabetes before or concurrent with their breast cancer diagnosis, and 10 452 women developed subsequent malignancies over a median follow-up of 4.3 years. Diabetes was statistically significantly associated with liver (HR = 2.35, 95% CI = 1.48 to 3.74), brain (HR = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.26 to 2.96), and thyroid cancer risks (HR = 1.38, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.89). Future studies are needed to better understand the spectrum of subsequent cancers associated with diabetes and the role of diabetes medications in modifying subsequent cancer risk, alone or in combination with cancer treatments.

Survival of adult AML patients treated with chemotherapy in the U.S. population by age, race and ethnicity, sex, calendar-year period, and AML subgroup, 2001-2019.

Background: Population-based survival studies of adult acute myeloid leukemia (AML) have not simultaneously evaluated age at diagnosis, race and ethnicity, sex, calendar period or AML subtypes/subgroups among chemotherapy-treated patients. Methods: For 28,473 chemotherapy-treated AML patients diagnosed at ages ≥20 years in population-based cancer registry areas of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (2001-2018, followed through 2019), we evaluated 1-month through 5-year relative survival (RS) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) using the actuarial method in the SEER∗Stat Survival Session and overall survival (OS) using multivariable Cox regression to estimate proportional hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CI. Findings: RS decreased with increasing age (20-39, 40-59, 60-74, 75-84, ≥85 years) at AML diagnosis. RS declined substantially within the first month and, except for acute promyelocytic leukemia, decreasing patterns continued thereafter for core binding factor AML, AML with antecedent condition/therapy, and all other AML. For all ages, acute promyelocytic leukemia RS stabilized after the first year. For total AML the hazard of death was significantly increased for non-Hispanic (NH)-Black (HR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.12-1.24) and NH-Pacific Islander patients (HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.11-1.55) compared with NH-White patients. In contrast, NH-Asian and Hispanic patients had similar OS to NH-White patients across all ages and most AML subgroups. Males had significantly inferior survival to females with some exceptions. Compared to 2001-2006, in 2013-2018 OS improved for all age and AML subgroups. Interpretation: Chemotherapy-treated U.S. adults with AML have notable differences in survival by age, race and ethnicity, sex, calendar-year period, and AML subgroup. Despite survival gains over time, our findings highlight the need for improving early outcomes across all AML subgroups, older ages, and Black and Pacific Islander patients and long-term outcomes among most treated groups. Funding: Intramural Research Program of the U.S. National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, Office of Surveillance and Epidemiology.

Polygenic risk scores, radiation treatment exposures and subsequent cancer risk in childhood cancer survivors.

Survivors of childhood cancer are at increased risk for subsequent cancers attributable to the late effects of radiotherapy and other treatment exposures; thus, further understanding of the impact of genetic predisposition on risk is needed. Combining genotype data for 11,220 5-year survivors from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and the St Jude Lifetime Cohort, we found that cancer-specific polygenic risk scores (PRSs) derived from general population, genome-wide association study, cancer loci identified survivors of European ancestry at increased risk of subsequent basal cell carcinoma (odds ratio per s.d. of the PRS: OR = 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.29-1.46), female breast cancer (OR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.27-1.58), thyroid cancer (OR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.31-1.67), squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.00-1.44) and melanoma (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.31-1.96); however, the association for colorectal cancer was not significant (OR = 1.19, 95% CI = 0.94-1.52). An investigation of joint associations between PRSs and radiotherapy found more than additive increased risks of basal cell carcinoma, and breast and thyroid cancers. For survivors with radiotherapy exposure, the cumulative incidence of subsequent cancer by age 50 years was increased for those with high versus low PRS. These findings suggest a degree of shared genetic etiology for these malignancy types in the general population and survivors, which remains evident in the context of strong radiotherapy-related risk.

Utilization of Autologous Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Over Time in Multiple Myeloma: A Population-Based Study.

PURPOSE: Autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (autoHCT) is associated with survival benefits in multiple myeloma (MM), but utilization remains low and differs by sociodemographic factors. Prior population-based studies have not fully captured autoHCT utilization or examined relationships between sociodemographic factors and autoHCT trends over time. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used a novel data linkage between the California Cancer Registry, Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research, and hospitalizations to capture autoHCT in a population-based MM cohort (n = 29, 109; 1991-2016). Due to interactions by treatment era, stratified multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models determined factors associated with autoHCT. RESULTS: The frequency of MM patients who received autoHCT increased from 5.7% (1991-1995) to 27.4% (2011-2016). In models by treatment era, patients with public/no (vs. private) health insurance were less likely to receive autoHCT (2011-2016 Medicare hazard ratio (HR) 0.70, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63-0.78; Medicaid HR 0.81, CI: 0.72-0.91; no insurance HR 0.56, CI: 0.32-0.99). In each treatment era, Black/African American (vs. non-Hispanic White) patients were less likely to receive autoHCT (2011-2016 HR 0.83, CI: 0.72-0.95). Hispanic patients were less likely to undergo autoHCT, most prominently in the earliest treatment era (1991-1995 HR 0.58, 95% CI: 0.37-0.90; 2011-2016 HR 1.07, CI: 0.96-1.19). Patients in lower socioeconomic status neighborhoods were less likely to utilize autoHCT, but differences decreased over time. CONCLUSIONS: Despite increases in autoHCT utilization, sociodemographic disparities remain. Identifying and mitigating barriers to autoHCT is essential to ensuring more equitable access to this highly effective therapy.

Comparison of Vital Status, Cause of Death, and Follow-Up after Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Linked Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research and California Cancer Registry Data, 1991 to 2018.

Assessing outcomes following hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) poses challenges due to the necessity for systematic and often prolonged patient follow-up. Linking the HCT database of the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) with cancer registry data may improve long-term outcome ascertainment, but the reliability of mortality data in death certificates from cancer registries among HCT recipients remains unknown. We compared the classification of vital status and primary cause of death (COD), as well as the length of follow-up between the CIBMTR and California Cancer Registry (CCR) to assess the possibility of supplementing the CIBMTR with cancer registry data. This retrospective study leveraged a linked CIBMTR-CCR dataset. We included patients who were California residents at the time of HCT and received a first allogeneic (allo) or autologous (auto) HCT for a hematologic malignancy diagnosed during 1991-2016. Follow-up was through 2018. We analyzed 18,450 patients (alloHCT, n = 8232; autoHCT, n = 10,218). The Vital status agreement was 97.7% for alloHCT and 97.2% for autoHCT. Unknown COD was higher in CIBMTR (12.9%) than in CCR (1.6%). After excluding patients with unknown COD information, the overall agreement of primary COD (cancer versus noncancer) was 53.7% for alloHCT and 83.2% for autoHCT. This agreement was lower within the first 100 days post-HCT (alloHCT, 31.0%; autoHCT, 54.6%). Compared with CIBMTR, deaths due to cancer were higher in CCR (alloHCT, 90.0%; autoHCT, 90.1% versus alloHCT, 47.3%; autoHCT, 82.5% in CIBMTR). CIBMTR reports more frequently noncancer-related deaths, including graft-versus-host disease and infections. The cumulative incidence of cancer-specific mortality at 20 years differed, particularly for alloHCT (CCR, 53.7%; CIBMTR, 27.6%). The median follow-up among alive patients was longer in CCR (alloHCT, 6.0 years; autoHCT, 4.7 years) than in CIBMTR (alloHCT, 5.0 years; autoHCT, 3.8 years). Our findings highlight the completeness of vital status data in CIBMTR but reveal substantial disagreement in primary COD. Consequently, caution is required when interpreting HCT studies that use only death certificates to estimate cause-specific mortality outcomes. Improving the accuracy of COD registration and follow-up completeness by developing communication pathways between cancer registries and hospital-based cohorts may enhance our understanding of late effects and long-term outcomes among HCT survivors.

All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Among Low-Risk Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Survivors in the United States.

Background: Despite the excellent disease-specific survival associated with low-risk differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), its diagnosis and management have been linked to patient concerns about cancer recurrence, treatment-related health risks, and mortality. Lack of information regarding long-term health outcomes can perpetuate these concerns. Therefore, we assessed all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a large cohort of individuals diagnosed with low-risk DTC. Methods: From the U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-12 cancer registry database (1992-2019), we identified 51,854 individuals (81.8% female) diagnosed with first primary DTC at low risk of recurrence (≤4 cm, localized). We estimated cause-specific cumulative mortality by time since diagnosis, accounting for competing risks. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and CIs were used to compare observed mortality rates in DTC patients with expected rates in the matched U.S. general population, overall and by time since DTC diagnosis. We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine associations between radioactive iodine (RAI) treatment and cause-specific mortality. Results: During follow-up (median = 8.8, range 0-28 years), 3467 (6.7%) deaths were recorded. Thyroid cancer accounted for only 4.3% of deaths (n = 148). The most common causes of death were malignancies (other than thyroid cancer) (n = 1031, 29.7%) and cardiovascular disease (CVD; n = 912, 26.3%). The 20-year cumulative mortality rate from thyroid cancer, malignancies (other than thyroid or nonmelanoma skin cancer), and CVD was 0.6%, 4.6%, and 3.9%, respectively. Lower than expected mortality was observed for all causes excluding thyroid cancer (SMR = 0.69 [CI 0.67-0.71]) and most specific causes, including all malignancies combined (other than thyroid cancer; SMR = 0.80 [CI 0.75-0.85]) and CVD (SMR = 0.64 [CI 0.60-0.69]). However, mortality rates were elevated for specific cancers, including pancreas (SMR = 1.58 [CI 1.18-2.06]), kidney and renal pelvis (SMR = 1.85 [CI 1.10-2.93]), and brain and other nervous system (SMR = 1.62 [CI 0.99-2.51]), and myeloma (SMR = 2.35 [CI 1.46-3.60]) and leukemia (SMR = 1.62 [CI 1.07-2.36]); these associations were stronger ≥10 years after diagnosis. RAI was not associated with risk of cause-specific death, but numbers of events were small and the range of administered activities was likely narrow. Conclusions: Overall, our findings provide reassurance regarding low overall and cause-specific mortality rates in individuals with low-risk DTC. Additional research is necessary to confirm and understand the increased mortality from certain subsequent cancers.

The pathobiology of select adolescent young adult lymphomas.

Lymphoid cancers are among the most frequent cancers diagnosed in adolescents and young adults (AYA), ranging from approximately 30%-35% of cancer diagnoses in adolescent patients (age 10-19) to approximately 10% in patients aged 30-39 years. Moreover, the specific distribution of lymphoid cancer types varies by age with substantial shifts in the subtype distributions between pediatric, AYA, adult, and older adult patients. Currently, biology studies specific to AYA lymphomas are rare and therefore insight into age-related pathogenesis is incomplete. This review focuses on the paradigmatic epidemiology and pathogenesis of select lymphomas, occurring in the AYA patient population. With the example of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorders, nodular lymphocyte-predominant Hodgkin lymphoma, follicular lymphoma (incl. pediatric-type follicular lymphoma), and mediastinal lymphomas (incl. classic Hodgkin lymphoma, primary mediastinal large B cell lymphoma and mediastinal gray zone lymphoma), we here illustrate the current state-of-the-art in lymphoma classification, recent molecular insights including genomics, and translational opportunities. To improve outcome and quality of life, international collaboration in consortia dedicated to AYA lymphoma is needed to overcome challenges related to siloed biospecimens and data collections as well as to develop studies designed specifically for this unique population.

Critical gaps in understanding treatment outcomes in adolescents and young adults with lymphoma: A review of current data.

Adolescents and young adults (AYA) with lymphoma experience treatment-related effects in the short and long term that impact their quality of life and survivorship experience. The effort to improve outcomes for AYA lymphoma survivors requires understanding the available literature, identifying current knowledge deficits, designing better clinical trials incorporating the patient perspective, using novel tools to bridge data gaps and building survivorship guidelines that translate research to clinical practice. This review article summarizes the current state of lymphoma treatment-related outcomes in AYAs and provides future direction.

Trends in risk for therapy-related myelodysplastic syndrome/acute myeloid leukemia after initial chemo/immunotherapy for common and rare lymphoid neoplasms, 2000-2018.

Background: Historically, survivors of common lymphoid neoplasms (LNs) had increased risks for therapy-related myelodysplastic syndrome/acute myeloid leukemia (tMDS/AML). Despite major treatment advances in the treatment of LNs over the last two decades, a comprehensive evaluation of tMDS/AML trends following both common and rare LNs treated in this contemporary period is lacking. Methods: In US cancer registries during 2000-2018, we identified 1496 tMDS/AML cases among 186,503 adults who were treated with initial chemo/immunotherapy for first primary LN and survived ≥1 year. We quantified tMDS/AML standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), excess absolute risks (EARs, per 10,000 person-years), and cumulative incidence. Findings: The highest tMDS/AML risks occurred after precursor leukemia/lymphoma (SIR = 39, EAR = 30), Burkitt leukemia/lymphoma (SIR = 20, EAR = 24), peripheral T-cell lymphoma (SIR = 12, EAR = 23), chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL; SIR = 9.0, EAR = 27), and mantle cell lymphoma (SIR = 8.5, EAR = 25). Elevated risks (SIRs = 4.2-6.9, EARs = 4.9-15) also were observed after all other LN subtypes except hairy cell leukemia and mycosis fungoides/Sézary syndrome. Among patients treated more recently, tMDS/AML risks were significantly higher after CLL/SLL (SIR2000-2005 = 4.8, SIR2012-2017 = 10, Ptrend = 0.0043), significantly lower after Hodgkin (SIR2000-2005 = 15, SIR2012-2017 = 6.3, Ptrend = 0.024) and marginal zone (SIR2000-2005 = 7.5, SIR2012-2017 = 2.3, Ptrend = 0.015) lymphomas, and non-significantly lower after mantle cell lymphoma (SIR2000-2005 = 10, SIR2012-2017 = 3.2, Ptrend = 0.054), lymphoplasmacytic lymphoma/Waldenström macroglobulinemia (SIR2000-2005 = 6.9, SIR2012-2017 = 1.0, Ptrend = 0.067), and plasma cell neoplasms (SIR2000-2005 = 5.4, SIR2012-2017 = 3.1, Ptrend = 0.051). EAR and cumulative incidence trends generally were similar to SIR trends. Median survival after tMDS/AML was 8.0 months (interquartile range, 3.0-22.0). Interpretation: Although tMDS/AML risks are significantly elevated after initial chemo/immunotherapy for most LNs, patients treated more recently have lower tMDS/AML risks, except after CLL/SLL. Though rare, the poor prognosis following tMDS/AML emphasizes the importance of continued efforts to reduce treatment-associated toxicity. Funding: This research was supported in part by the Intramural Research Program of the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health. LMM, GMD, REC, and CBS verified the data, and all authors had access to the data and made the decision to submit for publication.

Comparing Risk for Second Primary Cancers After Intensity-Modulated vs 3-Dimensional Conformal Radiation Therapy for Prostate Cancer, 2002-2015.

Importance: Compared with 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT), intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) can spare nearby tissue but may result in increased scatter radiation to distant normal tissue, including red bone marrow. It is unclear whether second primary cancer risk varies by radiotherapy type. Objective: To evaluate whether radiotherapy type (IMRT vs 3DCRT) is associated with second primary cancer risk among older men treated for prostate cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this retrospective cohort study of a linked database of Medicare claims and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program population-based cancer registries (2002-2015), male patients aged 66 to 84 diagnosed with a first primary nonmetastatic prostate cancer from 2002 to 2013, as reported to SEER, and who received radiotherapy (IMRT and/or 3DCRT without proton therapy) within the first year following prostate cancer were identified. The data were analyzed from January 2022 through June 2022. Exposure: Receipt of IMRT and 3DCRT, based on Medicare claims. Main Outcomes and Measures: The association between radiotherapy type and development of a subsequent hematologic cancer at least 2 years after prostate cancer diagnosis or a subsequent solid cancer at least 5 years after prostate cancer diagnosis. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional regression. Results: The study included 65 235 2-year first primary prostate cancer survivors (median [range] age, 72 [66-82] years; 82.2% White patients) and 45 811 5-year survivors with similar demographic characteristics (median [range] age, 72 [66-79] years; 82.4% White patients). Among 2-year prostate cancer survivors (median [range] follow-up, 4.6 [0.003-12.0] years), 1107 second hematologic cancers were diagnosed (IMRT, 603; 3DCRT, 504). Radiotherapy type was not associated with second hematologic cancers overall or any specific types evaluated. Among 5-year survivors (median [range] follow-up, 3.1 [0.003-9.0] years), 2688 men were diagnosed with a second primary solid cancer (IMRT, 1306; 3DCRT, 1382). The overall HR for IMRT vs 3DCRT was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.83-0.99). This inverse association was restricted to the earlier calendar year period of prostate cancer diagnosis (HR2002-2005 = 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76-0.94; HR2006-2010 = 1.14; 95% CI, 0.96-1.36), with a similar pattern observed for colon cancer (HR2002-2005 = 0.66; 95% CI, 0.46-0.94; HR2006-2010 = 1.06; 95% CI, 0.59-1.88). Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this large, population-based cohort study suggest that IMRT for prostate cancer is not associated with an increased risk of second primary cancers, either solid or hematologic, and any inverse associations may be associated with calendar year of treatment.

Inflated expectations: Rare-variant association analysis using public controls.

The use of publicly available sequencing datasets as controls (hereafter, "public controls") in studies of rare variant disease associations has great promise but can increase the risk of false-positive discovery. The specific factors that could contribute to inflated distribution of test statistics have not been systematically examined. Here, we leveraged both public controls, gnomAD v2.1 and several datasets sequenced in our laboratory to systematically investigate factors that could contribute to the false-positive discovery, as measured by λΔ95, a measure to quantify the degree of inflation in statistical significance. Analyses of datasets in this investigation found that 1) the significantly inflated distribution of test statistics decreased substantially when the same variant caller and filtering pipelines were employed, 2) differences in library prep kits and sequencers did not affect the false-positive discovery rate and, 3) joint vs. separate variant-calling of cases and controls did not contribute to the inflation of test statistics. Currently available methods do not adequately adjust for the high false-positive discovery. These results, especially if replicated, emphasize the risks of using public controls for rare-variant association tests in which individual-level data and the computational pipeline are not readily accessible, which prevents the use of the same variant-calling and filtering pipelines on both cases and controls. A plausible solution exists with the emergence of cloud-based computing, which can make it possible to bring containerized analytical pipelines to the data (rather than the data to the pipeline) and could avert or minimize these issues. It is suggested that future reports account for this issue and provide this as a limitation in reporting new findings based on studies that cannot practically analyze all data on a single pipeline.