Integrating Common Risk Factors with Polygenic Scores Improves the Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes.

We tested associations between 13 established genetic variants and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in 1371 study participants from the Volga-Ural region of the Eurasian continent, and evaluated the predictive ability of the model containing polygenic scores for the variants associated with T2D in our dataset, alone and in combination with other risk factors such as age and sex. Using logistic regression analysis, we found associations with T2D for the CCL20 rs6749704 (OR = 1.68, PFDR = 3.40 × 10-5), CCR5 rs333 (OR = 1.99, PFDR = 0.033), ADIPOQ rs17366743 (OR = 3.17, PFDR = 2.64 × 10-4), TCF7L2 rs114758349 (OR = 1.77, PFDR = 9.37 × 10-5), and CCL2 rs1024611 (OR = 1.38, PFDR = 0.033) polymorphisms. We showed that the most informative prognostic model included weighted polygenic scores for these five loci, and non-genetic factors such as age and sex (AUC 85.8%, 95%CI 83.7-87.8%). Compared to the model containing only non-genetic parameters, adding the polygenic score for the five T2D-associated loci showed improved net reclassification (NRI = 37.62%, 1.39 × 10-6). Inclusion of all 13 tested SNPs to the model with age and sex did not improve the predictive ability compared to the model containing five T2D-associated variants (NRI = -17.86, p = 0.093). The five variants associated with T2D in people from the Volga-Ural region are linked to inflammation (CCR5, CCL2, CCL20) and glucose metabolism regulation (TCF7L, ADIPOQ2). Further studies in independent groups of T2D patients should validate the prognostic value of the model and elucidate the molecular mechanisms of the disease development.

Multilocus associations of inflammatory genes with the risk of type 1 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies have captured a large proportion of genetic variation related to type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D). However, most of these studies are performed in populations of European ancestry and therefore the disease risk estimations can be inaccurate when extrapolated to other world populations. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study in 1866 individuals from the three major populations of the Republic of Bashkortostan (Russians, Tatars, and Bashkirs) in Russian Federation, using single-locus and multilocus approach to identify genetic predictors of T1D. RESULTS: We found that LTA rs909253 and TNF rs1800629 polymorphisms were associated with T1D in the group of Tatars. Meta-analysis of the association study results in the three ethnic groups has confirmed the association between the T1D risk and LTA rs909253 genetic variant. LTA rs909253 and TNF rs1800629 loci were also featured in combinations most significantly associated with T1D. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that LTA rs909253 and TNF rs1800629 polymorphisms are associated with the risk of T1D both independently and in combination with polymorphic markers in other inflammatory genes, and the analysis of multi-allelic combinations provides valuable insight in the study of polygenic traits.