Collaborative Modeling to Compare Different Breast Cancer Screening Strategies: A Decision Analysis for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: The effects of breast cancer incidence changes and advances in screening and treatment on outcomes of different screening strategies are not well known. Objective: To estimate outcomes of various mammography screening strategies. Design, Setting, and Population: Comparison of outcomes using 6 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models and national data on breast cancer incidence, mammography performance, treatment effects, and other-cause mortality in US women without previous cancer diagnoses. Exposures: Thirty-six screening strategies with varying start ages (40, 45, 50 years) and stop ages (74, 79 years) with digital mammography or digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) annually, biennially, or a combination of intervals. Strategies were evaluated for all women and for Black women, assuming 100% screening adherence and "real-world" treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated lifetime benefits (breast cancer deaths averted, percent reduction in breast cancer mortality, life-years gained), harms (false-positive recalls, benign biopsies, overdiagnosis), and number of mammograms per 1000 women. Results: Biennial screening with DBT starting at age 40, 45, or 50 years until age 74 years averted a median of 8.2, 7.5, or 6.7 breast cancer deaths per 1000 women screened, respectively, vs no screening. Biennial DBT screening at age 40 to 74 years (vs no screening) was associated with a 30.0% breast cancer mortality reduction, 1376 false-positive recalls, and 14 overdiagnosed cases per 1000 women screened. Digital mammography screening benefits were similar to those for DBT but had more false-positive recalls. Annual screening increased benefits but resulted in more false-positive recalls and overdiagnosed cases. Benefit-to-harm ratios of continuing screening until age 79 years were similar or superior to stopping at age 74. In all strategies, women with higher-than-average breast cancer risk, higher breast density, and lower comorbidity level experienced greater screening benefits than other groups. Annual screening of Black women from age 40 to 49 years with biennial screening thereafter reduced breast cancer mortality disparities while maintaining similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs as for all women. Conclusions: This modeling analysis suggests that biennial mammography screening starting at age 40 years reduces breast cancer mortality and increases life-years gained per mammogram. More intensive screening for women with greater risk of breast cancer diagnosis or death can maintain similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs and reduce mortality disparities.

A dynamic and collaborative database for morphogeometric information of trilobites.

Modern morphometric-based approaches provide valuable metrics to quantify and understand macroevolutionary and macroecological patterns and processes. Here we describe TriloMorph, an openly accessible database for morpho-geometric information of trilobites, together with a landmark acquisition protocol. In addition to morphological traits, the database contains contextual data on chronostratigraphic age, geographic location, taxonomic information and lithology of landmarked specimens. In this first version, the dataset has broad taxonomic and temporal coverage and comprises more than 55% of all trilobite genera and 85% of families recorded in the Paleobiology Database through the Devonian. We provide a release of geometric morphometric data of 277 specimens linked to published references. Additionally, we established a Github repository for constant input of morphometric data by multiple contributors and present R functions that help with data retrieval and analysis. This is the first attempt of an online, dynamic and collaborative morphometric repository. By bringing this information into a single open database we enhance the possibility of performing global palaeobiological research, providing a major complement to current occurrence-based databases.

Were all trilobites fully marine? Trilobite expansion into brackish water during the early Palaeozoic.

Trilobites, key components of early Palaeozoic communities, are considered to have been invariably fully marine. Through the integration of ichnological, palaeobiological, and sedimentological datasets within a sequence-stratigraphical framework, we challenge this assumption. Here, we report uncontroversial trace and body fossil evidence of their presence in brackish-water settings. Our approach allows tracking of some trilobite groups foraying into tide-dominated estuaries. These trilobites were tolerant to salinity stress and able to make use of the ecological advantages offered by marginal-marine environments migrating up-estuary, following salt wedges either reflecting amphidromy or as euryhaline marine wanderers. Our data indicate two attempts of landward exploration via brackish water: phase 1 in which the outer portion of estuaries were colonized by olenids (Furongian-early late Tremadocian) and phase 2 involving exploration of the inner to middle estuarine zones by asaphids (Dapingian-Darriwilian). This study indicates that tolerance to salinity stress arose independently among different trilobite groups.

Estimating Breast Cancer Survival by Molecular Subtype in the Absence of Screening and Adjuvant Treatment.

BACKGROUND: As molecular subtyping of breast cancer influences clinical management, the evaluation of screening and adjuvant treatment interventions at the population level needs to account for molecular subtyping. Performing such analyses are challenging because molecular subtype-specific, long-term outcomes are not readily accessible; these markers were not historically recorded in tumor registries. We present a modeling approach to estimate historical survival outcomes by estrogen receptor (ER) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status. METHOD: Our approach leverages a simulation model of breast cancer outcomes and integrates data from two sources: the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) databases and the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC). We not only produce ER- and HER2-specific estimates of breast cancer survival in the absence of screening and adjuvant treatment but we also estimate mean tumor volume doubling time (TVDT) and mean mammographic detection threshold by ER/HER2-status. RESULTS: In general, we found that tumors with ER-negative and HER2-positive status are associated with more aggressive growth, have lower TVDTs, are harder to detect by mammography, and have worse survival outcomes in the absence of screening and adjuvant treatment. Our estimates have been used as inputs into model-based analyses that evaluate the effects of screening and adjuvant treatment interventions on population outcomes by ER and HER2 status developed by the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Breast Cancer Working Group. In addition, our estimates enable a re-assessment of historical trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality in terms of contemporary molecular tumor characteristics. CONCLUSION: Our approach can be generalized beyond breast cancer and to more complex molecular profiles.

Comparing CISNET Breast Cancer Models Using the Maximum Clinical Incidence Reduction Methodology.

BACKGROUND: Collaborative modeling has been used to estimate the impact of potential cancer screening strategies worldwide. A necessary step in the interpretation of collaborative cancer screening model results is to understand how model structure and model assumptions influence cancer incidence and mortality predictions. In this study, we examined the relative contributions of the pre-clinical duration of breast cancer, the sensitivity of screening, and the improvement in prognosis associated with treatment of screen-detected cases to the breast cancer incidence and mortality predictions of 5 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models. METHODS: To tease out the impact of model structure and assumptions on model predictions, the Maximum Clinical Incidence Reduction (MCLIR) method compares changes in the number of breast cancers diagnosed due to clinical symptoms and cancer mortality between 4 simplified scenarios: 1) no-screening; 2) one-time perfect screening exam, which detects all existing cancers and perfect treatment (i.e., cure) of all screen-detected cancers; 3) one-time digital mammogram and perfect treatment of all screen-detected cancers; and 4) one-time digital mammogram and current guideline-concordant treatment of all screen-detected cancers. RESULTS: The 5 models predicted a large range in maximum clinical incidence (19% to 71%) and in breast cancer mortality reduction (33% to 67%) from a one-time perfect screening test and perfect treatment. In this perfect scenario, the models with assumptions of tumor inception before it is first detectable by mammography predicted substantially higher incidence and mortality reductions than models with assumptions of tumor onset at the start of a cancer's screen-detectable phase. The range across models in breast cancer clinical incidence (11% to 24%) and mortality reduction (8% to 18%) from a one-time digital mammogram at age 62 y with observed sensitivity and current guideline-concordant treatment was considerably smaller than achievable under perfect conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The timing of tumor inception and its effect on the length of the pre-clinical phase of breast cancer had a substantial impact on the grouping of models based on their predictions for clinical incidence and breast cancer mortality reduction. This key finding about the timing of tumor inception will be included in future CISNET breast analyses to enhance model transparency. The MCLIR approach should aid in the interpretation of variations in model results and could be adopted in other disease screening settings to enhance model transparency.

A Molecular Subtype-Specific Stochastic Simulation Model of US Breast Cancer Incidence, Survival, and Mortality Trends from 1975 to 2010.

We present a Monte Carlo simulation model that reproduces US invasive breast cancer incidence and mortality trends from 1975 to 2010 as a function of screening and adjuvant treatment. This model was developed for multiple purposes, including to quantify the impact of screening and adjuvant therapy on past and current trends, predict future trends, and evaluate potential outcomes under hypothetical screening and treatment interventions. The model first generates the life histories of individual breast cancer patients by determining the patient's age, tumor size, estrogen receptor (ER) status, human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2) status, SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) historic stage, detection mode at time of detection, preclinical tumor course, and death age and cause of death (breast cancer v. other causes). The model incorporates common inputs used by the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET), including the dissemination patterns for screening mammography, breast cancer survival in the absence of adjuvant therapy, dissemination and efficacy of treatment by ER and HER2 status, and death from causes other than breast cancer. In this article, predicted mortality outcomes are compared assuming proportional v. nonproportional hazards effects of treatment on breast cancer survival. We found that the proportional hazards treatment effects are sufficient for ER-negative disease. However, for ER-positive disease, the treatment effects appear to be higher during the early years following diagnosis and then diminish over time. Using nonproportional hazards effects for ER-positive cases, the predicted breast cancer mortality rates closely match the SEER mortality trends from 1975 to 2010, particularly after 1995. Our work indicates that population-level simulation modeling may have a broader role in assessing the time dependence of treatment effects.

Glia-related mechanisms in the anteroventral cochlear nucleus of the adult rat in response to unilateral conductive hearing loss.

Conductive hearing loss causes a progressive decline in cochlear activity that may result in functional and structural modifications in auditory neurons. However, whether these activity-dependent changes are accompanied by a glial response involving microglia, astrocytes, or both has not yet been fully elucidated. Accordingly, the present study was designed to determine the involvement of glial related mechanisms in the anteroventral cochlear nucleus (AVCN) of adult rats at 1, 4, 7, and 15 d after removing middle ear ossicles. Quantitative immunohistochemistry analyses at light microscopy with specific markers of microglia or astroglia along with immunocytochemistry at the electron microscopy level were used. Also, in order to test whether trophic support by neurotrophins is modulated in glial cells by auditory activity, the expression and distribution of neurotrophin-3 (NT-3) and its colocalization with microglial or astroglial markers was investigated. Diminished cochlear activity after middle ear ossicle removal leads to a significant ipsilateral increase in the mean gray levels and stained area of microglial cells but not astrocytes in the AVCN at 1 and 4 d post-lesion as compared to the contralateral side and control animals. These results suggest that microglial cells but not astrocytes may act as dynamic modulators of synaptic transmission in the cochlear nucleus immediately following unilateral hearing loss. On the other hand, NT-3 immunostaining was localized mainly in neuronal cell bodies and axons and was upregulated at 1, 4 and 7 d post-lesion. Very few glial cells expressed this neurotrophin in both control and experimental rats, suggesting that NT-3 is primarily activated in neurons and not as much in glia after limiting auditory activity in the AVCN by conductive hearing loss.

Feasibility evaluation of an online tool to guide decisions for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.

Women with BRCA1 or BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) mutations face difficult decisions about managing their high risks of breast and ovarian cancer. We developed an online tool to guide decisions about cancer risk reduction (available at: http://brcatool.stanford.edu ), and recruited patients and clinicians to test its feasibility. We developed questionnaires for women with BRCA1/2 mutations and clinicians involved in their care, incorporating the System Usability Scale (SUS) and the Center for Healthcare Evaluation Provider Satisfaction Questionnaire (CHCE-PSQ). We enrolled BRCA1/2 mutation carriers who were seen by local physicians or participating in a national advocacy organization, and we enrolled clinicians practicing at Stanford University and in the surrounding community. Forty BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and 16 clinicians participated. Both groups found the tool easy to use, with SUS scores of 82.5-85 on a scale of 1-100; we did not observe differences according to patient age or gene mutation. General satisfaction was high, with a mean score of 4.28 (standard deviation (SD) 0.96) for patients, and 4.38 (SD 0.89) for clinicians, on a scale of 1-5. Most patients (77.5 %) were comfortable using the tool at home. Both patients and clinicians agreed that the decision tool could improve patient-doctor encounters (mean scores 4.50 and 4.69, on a 1-5 scale). Patients and health care providers rated the decision tool highly on measures of usability and clinical relevance. These results will guide a larger study of the tool's impact on clinical decisions.

A simulation model to predict the impact of prophylactic surgery and screening on the life expectancy of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.

BACKGROUND: Women with inherited mutations in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) genes are recommended to undergo a number of intensive cancer risk-reducing strategies, including prophylactic mastectomy, prophylactic oophorectomy, and screening. We estimate the impact of different risk-reducing options at various ages on life expectancy. METHODS: We apply our previously developed Monte Carlo simulation model of screening and prophylactic surgery in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. Here, we present the mathematical formulation to compute age-specific breast cancer incidence in the absence of prophylactic oophorectomy, which is an input to the simulation model, and provide sensitivity analysis on related model parameters. RESULTS: The greatest gains in life expectancy result from conducting prophylactic mastectomy and prophylactic oophorectomy immediately after BRCA1/2 mutation testing; these gains vary with age at testing, from 6.8 to 10.3 years for BRCA1 and 3.4 to 4.4 years for BRCA2 mutation carriers. Life expectancy gains from delaying prophylactic surgery by 5 to 10 years range from 1 to 9.9 years for BRCA1 and 0.5 to 4.2 years for BRCA2 mutation carriers. Adding annual breast screening provides gains of 2.0 to 9.9 years for BRCA1 and 1.5 to 4.3 years for BRCA2. Results were most sensitive to variations in our assumptions about the magnitude and duration of breast cancer risk reduction due to prophylactic oophorectomy. CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy gains depend on the type of BRCA mutation and age at interventions. Sensitivity analysis identifies the degree of breast cancer risk reduction due to prophylactic oophorectomy as a key determinant of life expectancy gain. IMPACT: Further study of the impact of prophylactic oophorectomy on breast cancer risk in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers is warranted.

Online tool to guide decisions for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.

PURPOSE: Women with BRCA1 or BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) mutations must choose between prophylactic surgeries and screening to manage their high risks of breast and ovarian cancer, comparing options in terms of cancer incidence, survival, and quality of life. A clinical decision tool could guide these complex choices. METHODS: We built a Monte Carlo model for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, simulating breast screening with annual mammography plus magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) from ages 25 to 69 years and prophylactic mastectomy (PM) and/or prophylactic oophorectomy (PO) at various ages. Modeled outcomes were cancer incidence, tumor features that shape treatment recommendations, overall survival, and cause-specific mortality. We adapted the model into an online tool to support shared decision making. RESULTS: We compared strategies on cancer incidence and survival to age 70 years; for example, PO plus PM at age 25 years optimizes both outcomes (incidence, 4% to 11%; survival, 80% to 83%), whereas PO at age 40 years plus MRI screening offers less effective prevention, yet similar survival (incidence, 36% to 57%; survival, 74% to 80%). To characterize patients' treatment and survivorship experiences, we reported the tumor features and treatments associated with risk-reducing interventions; for example, in most BRCA2 mutation carriers (81%), MRI screening diagnoses stage I, hormone receptor-positive breast cancers, which may not require chemotherapy. CONCLUSION: Cancer risk-reducing options for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers vary in their impact on cancer incidence, recommended treatments, quality of life, and survival. To guide decisions informed by multiple health outcomes, we provide an online tool for joint use by patients with their physicians (http://brcatool.stanford.edu).

Bone tissue reaction to Ti-48Al-2Cr-2Nb (at.%) in a rodent model: a preliminary SEM study.

A variety of metals have been used to replace the skeletal framework of human beings. Gamma titanium aluminide (gammaTiAl) has been recently developed as a prospective material for turbine applications. In this preliminary study, the potential of gammaTiAl as a biomaterial was evaluated using an in vivo rat model. Sprague-Dawley rats were implanted with gammaTiAl cylinders in the femur and observed for an experimental period lasting up to 180 days. The rats were sacrificed after periods of 45, 90 and 180 days. The femurs with the gammaTiAl implants were extracted and examined using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Normal bone growth processes were observed as early as 45 days after gammaTiAl cylinder implantation. No signs of rejection of the implant metal were observed. In fact, a layered bone growth was observed on the implant metal surface. The bone-metal interface showed signs of tissue growth from original bone to the metal surface. gammaTiAl appears to elicit a normal bone tissue reaction and hence, has potential as a metallic implant material.