Atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: identifying candidate predictors through a Delphi process.

OBJECTIVES: This study was undertaken to identify potential predictors of atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery (AFACS) through a modified Delphi process and expert consensus. These will supplement predictors identified through a systematic review and cohort study to inform the development of two AFACS prediction models as part of the PARADISE project (NCT05255224). Atrial fibrillation is a common complication after cardiac surgery. It is associated with worse postoperative outcomes. Reliable prediction of AFACS would enable risk stratification and targeted prevention. Systematic identification of candidate predictors is important to improve validity of AFACS prediction tools. DESIGN: This study is a Delphi consensus exercise. SETTING: This study was undertaken through remote participation. PARTICIPANTS: The participants are an international multidisciplinary panel of experts selected through national research networks. INTERVENTIONS: This is a two-stage consensus exercise consisting of generating a long list of variables, followed by refinement by voting and retaining variables selected by at least 40% of panel members. RESULTS: The panel comprised 15 experts who participated in both stages, comprising cardiac intensive care physicians (n=3), cardiac anaesthetists (n=2), cardiac surgeons (n=1), cardiologists (n=4), cardiac pharmacists (n=1), critical care nurses (n=1), cardiac nurses (n=1) and patient representatives (n=2). Our Delphi process highlighted candidate AFACS predictors, including both patient factors and those related to the surgical intervention. We generated a final list of 72 candidate predictors. The final list comprised 3 demographic, 29 comorbidity, 4 vital sign, 13 intraoperative, 10 postoperative investigation and 13 postoperative intervention predictors. CONCLUSIONS: A Delphi consensus exercise has the potential to highlight predictors beyond the scope of existing literature. This method proved effective in identifying a range of candidate AFACS predictors. Our findings will inform the development of future AFACS prediction tools as part of the larger PARADISE project. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05255224.

Sex, Atrial Fibrillation, and Long-Term Mortality After Cardiac Surgery.

Importance: There are limited data on the association of sex with the incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation (poAF) and subsequent long-term mortality after cardiac surgery. Objective: To evaluate whether the incidence of poAF and associated long-term mortality after cardiac surgery differ by sex. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study was conducted at 2 tertiary care centers in Massachusetts from January 1, 2002, until October 1, 2016, with follow-up until December 1, 2022. Adult (aged >20 years) women and men undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery, aortic valve surgery, mitral valve surgery, and combined procedures with cardiopulmonary bypass were examined using medical records. Patients who had data on poAF were included in data analyses. Exposures: Sex and poAF. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were the incidence of poAF and all-cause mortality. poAF was defined as any atrial fibrillation detected on electrocardiogram (EKG) during the index hospitalization in patients presenting for surgery in normal sinus rhythm. Data on poAF were obtained from EKG reports and supplemented by information from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database. All-cause mortality was assessed via hospital records. The hypotheses were formulated prior to data analysis. Results: Among 21 568 patients with poAF data (mean [SD] age, 66.5 [12.4] years), 2694 of 6601 women (40.8%) and 5805 of 14 967 men (38.8%) developed poAF. In a multivariable logistic regression model, women had lower risk of poAF (odds ratio [OR], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.79-0.91; P < .001). During the follow-up study period, 1294 women (50.4%) and 2376 men (48.9%) in the poAF group as well as 1273 women (49.6%) and 2484 men (51.1%) in the non-poAF group died. Cox proportional hazards analysis found that the association between poAF and mortality was significantly moderated (ie, effect modified) by sex. Compared with same-sex individuals without poAF, men with poAF had a 17% higher mortality hazard (hazard ratio [HR], 1.17; 95% CI, 1.11-1.25; P < .001), and women with poAF had a 31% higher mortality hazard (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.21-1.42; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective cohort study of 21 568 patients who underwent cardiac surgery, women were less likely to develop poAF than men when controlling for other relevant characteristics; however, women who did develop poAF had a higher risk of long-term mortality than men who developed poAF. This observed elevated risk calls for a tailored approach to perioperative care in women undergoing cardiac surgery.

Broadcasters, receivers, functional groups of metabolites, and the link to heart failure by revealing metabolomic network connectivity.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Blood-based small molecule metabolites offer easy accessibility and hold significant potential for insights into health processes, the impact of lifestyle, and genetic variation on disease, enabling precise risk prevention. In a prospective study with records of heart failure (HF) incidence, we present metabolite profiling data from individuals without HF at baseline. METHODS: We uncovered the interconnectivity of metabolites using data-driven and causal networks augmented with polygenic factors. Exploring the networks, we identified metabolite broadcasters, receivers, mediators, and subnetworks corresponding to functional classes of metabolites, and provided insights into the link between metabolomic architecture and regulation in health. We incorporated the network structure into the identification of metabolites associated with HF to control the effect of confounding metabolites. RESULTS: We identified metabolites associated with higher and lower risk of HF incidence, such as glycine, ureidopropionic and glycocholic acids, and LPC 18:2. These associations were not confounded by the other metabolites due to uncovering the connectivity among metabolites and adjusting each association for the confounding metabolites. Examples of our findings include the direct influence of asparagine on glycine, both of which were inversely associated with HF. These two metabolites were influenced by polygenic factors and only essential amino acids, which are not synthesized in the human body and are obtained directly from the diet. CONCLUSION: Metabolites may play a critical role in linking genetic background and lifestyle factors to HF incidence. Revealing the underlying connectivity of metabolites associated with HF strengthens the findings and facilitates studying complex conditions like HF.

The BMAL1/HIF2A heterodimer modulates circadian variations of myocardial injury.

Acute myocardial infarction stands as a prominent cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide1-6. Clinical studies have demonstrated that the severity of cardiac injury following myocardial infarction exhibits a circadian pattern, with larger infarct sizes and poorer outcomes in patients experiencing morning onset myocardial infarctions7-14. However, the molecular mechanisms that govern circadian variations of myocardial injury remain unclear. Here, we show that BMAL114-20, a core circadian transcription factor, orchestrates diurnal variability in myocardial injury. Unexpectedly, BMAL1 modulates circadian-dependent cardiac injury by forming a transcriptionally active heterodimer with a non-canonical partner, hypoxia-inducible factor 2 alpha (HIF2A)6,21-23, in a diurnal manner. Substantiating this finding, we determined the cryo-EM structure of the BMAL1/HIF2A/DNA complex, revealing a previously unknown capacity for structural rearrangement within BMAL1, which enables the crosstalk between circadian rhythms and hypoxia signaling. Furthermore, we identified amphiregulin (AREG) as a rhythmic transcriptional target of the BMAL1/HIF2A heterodimer, critical for regulating circadian variations of myocardial injury. Finally, pharmacologically targeting the BMAL1/HIF2A-AREG pathway provides effective cardioprotection, with maximum efficacy when aligned with the pathway's circadian trough. Our findings not only uncover a novel mechanism governing the circadian variations of myocardial injury but also pave the way for innovative circadian-based treatment strategies, potentially shifting current treatment paradigms for myocardial infarction.

Intracellular proteomics and extracellular vesiculomics as a metric of disease recapitulation in 3D-bioprinted aortic valve arrays.

In calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD), mechanosensitive valvular cells respond to fibrosis- and calcification-induced tissue stiffening, further driving pathophysiology. No pharmacotherapeutics are available to treat CAVD because of the paucity of (i) appropriate experimental models that recapitulate this complex environment and (ii) benchmarking novel engineered aortic valve (AV)-model performance. We established a biomaterial-based CAVD model mimicking the biomechanics of the human AV disease-prone fibrosa layer, three-dimensional (3D)-bioprinted into 96-well arrays. Liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry analyses probed the cellular proteome and vesiculome to compare the 3D-bioprinted model versus traditional 2D monoculture, against human CAVD tissue. The 3D-bioprinted model highly recapitulated the CAVD cellular proteome (94% versus 70% of 2D proteins). Integration of cellular and vesicular datasets identified known and unknown proteins ubiquitous to AV calcification. This study explores how 2D versus 3D-bioengineered systems recapitulate unique aspects of human disease, positions multiomics as a technique for the evaluation of high throughput-based bioengineered model systems, and potentiates future drug discovery.

Effect of concurrent mitral valve surgery for secondary mitral regurgitation upon mortality after aortic valve replacement or coronary artery bypass surgery.

Objectives: It is uncertain whether concurrent mitral valve repair or replacement for moderate or greater secondary mitral regurgitation at the time of coronary artery bypass graft or aortic valve replacement surgery improves long-term survival. Methods: Patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft and/or aortic valve replacement surgery with moderate or greater secondary mitral regurgitation were reviewed. The effect of concurrent mitral valve repair or replacement upon long-term mortality was assessed while accounting for patient and operative characteristics and mitral regurgitation severity. Results: Of 1,515 patients, 938 underwent coronary artery bypass graft or aortic valve replacement surgery alone and 577 underwent concurrent mitral valve repair or replacement. Concurrent mitral valve repair or replacement did not alter the risk of postoperative mortality for patients with moderate mitral regurgitation (hazard ratio = 0.93; 0.75-1.17) or more-than-moderate mitral regurgitation (hazard ratio = 1.09; 0.74-1.60) in multivariable regression. Patients with more-than-moderate mitral regurgitation undergoing coronary artery bypass graft-only surgery had a survival advantage from concurrent mitral valve repair or replacement in the first two postoperative years (P = 0.028) that did not persist beyond that time. Patients who underwent concurrent mitral valve repair or replacement had a higher rate of later mitral valve operation or reoperation over the five subsequent years (1.9% vs. 0.2%; P = 0.0014) than those who did not. Conclusions: These observations suggest that mitral valve repair or replacement for more-than-moderate mitral regurgitation at the time of coronary artery bypass grafting may be reasonable in a suitably selected coronary artery bypass graft population but not for aortic valve replacement, with or without coronary artery bypass grafting. Our findings are supportive of 2021 European guidelines that severe secondary mitral regurgitation "should" or be "reasonabl[y]" intervened upon at the time of coronary artery bypass grafting but do not support 2020 American guidelines for performing mitral valve repair or replacement concurrent with aortic valve replacement, with or without coronary artery bypass grafting.

Broadcasters, receivers, functional groups of metabolites and the link to heart failure progression using polygenic factors.

In a prospective study with records of heart failure (HF) incidence, we present metabolite profiling data from individuals without HF at baseline. We uncovered the interconnectivity of metabolites using data-driven and causal networks augmented with polygenic factors. Exploring the networks, we identified metabolite broadcasters, receivers, mediators, and subnetworks corresponding to functional classes of metabolites, and provided insights into the link between metabolomic architecture and regulation in health. We incorporated the network structure into the identification of metabolites associated with HF to control the effect of confounding metabolites. We identified metabolites associated with higher or lower risk of HF incidence, the associations that were not confounded by the other metabolites, such as glycine, ureidopropionic and glycocholic acids, and LPC 18:2. We revealed the underlying relationships of the findings. For example, asparagine directly influenced glycine, and both were inversely associated with HF. These two metabolites were influenced by polygenic factors and only essential amino acids which are not synthesized in the human body and come directly from the diet. Metabolites may play a critical role in linking genetic background and lifestyle factors to HF progression. Revealing the underlying connectivity of metabolites associated with HF strengthens the findings and facilitates a mechanistic understanding of HF progression.

Angiopoietin-2 is associated with capillary leak and predicts complications after cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing cardiac surgery are prone to numerous complications. Increased vascular permeability may be associated with morbidity and mortality due to hemodynamic instability, fluid overload, and edema formation. We hypothesized that markers of endothelial injury and inflammation are associated with capillary leak, ultimately increasing the risk of postoperative complications. METHODS: In this prospective, observational, multidisciplinary cohort study at our tertiary academic medical center, we recruited 405 cardiac surgery patients. Patients were assessed daily using body impedance electrical analysis, ultrasound, sublingual intravital microscopy, and analysis of serum biomarkers. Multivariable models, as well as machine learning, were used to study the association of angiopoietin-2 with extracellular water as well as common complications after cardiac surgery. RESULTS: The majority of patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting, valvular, or aortic surgeries. Across the groups, extracellular water increased postoperatively (20 ± 6 preoperatively to 29 ± 7L on postoperative day 2; P < 0.001). Concomitantly, the levels of the biomarker angiopoietin-2 rose, showing a strong correlation based on the time points of measurements (r = 0.959, P = 0.041). Inflammatory (IL-6, IL-8, CRP) and endothelial biomarkers (VE-Cadherin, syndecan-1, ICAM-1) suggestive of capillary leak were increased. After controlling for common risk factors of edema formation, we found that an increase of 1 ng/mL in angiopoietin-2 was associated with a 0.24L increase in extracellular water (P < 0.001). Angiopoietin-2 showed increased odds for the development of acute kidney injury (OR 1.095 [95% CI 1.032, 1.169]; P = 0.004) and was furthermore associated with delayed extubation, longer time in the ICU, and a higher chance of prolonged dependence on vasoactive medication. Machine learning predicted postoperative complications when capillary leak was added to standard risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Capillary leak and subsequent edema formation are relevant problems after cardiac surgery. Levels of angiopoietin-2 in combination with extracellular water show promising potential to predict postoperative complications after cardiac surgery. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: German Clinical Trials Registry (DRKS No. 00017057), Date of registration 05/04/2019, www.drks.de.

Single-cell T cell receptor sequencing of paired tissue and blood samples reveals clonal expansion of CD8+ effector T cells in patients with calcific aortic valve disease.

Calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) is a complex cardiovascular pathology, culminating in aortic stenosis, heart failure and premature mortality, with no comprehensive treatment strategy, except valve replacement. While T cells have been identified within the valve, their contribution to pathogenesis remains unclear. To elucidate the heterogenous phenotype of the immune populations present within patients with CAVD, deep phenotypic screens of paired valve and peripheral blood cells were conducted via flow cytometry (n=20) and immunohistochemistry (n=10). Following identification of a significant population of memory T cells; specifically, CD8+ T cells within the valve, single cell RNA sequencing and paired single T cell receptor sequencing was conducted on a further 4 patients on CD45+ CD3+, CD4+ or CD8+ T cells. Through unsupervised clustering, 7 T cell populations were identified within the blood and 10 identified within the valve. Tissue resident memory (T RM ) T cells were detected for the first time within the valve, exhibiting a highly cytotoxic, activated, and terminally differentiated phenotype. This pan-pro-inflammatory signal was differentially identified in T cells originating from the valve, and not observed in the blood, indicative of an adaptive, local not-systemic inflammatory signature in CAVD patients. T cell receptor analysis identified hyperexpanded clones within the CD8+ T cell central memory (T CM ) population, with T RM cells comprising the majority of large and medium clonal expansion within the entire T cell population. Clonal interaction network analysis demonstrated the greatest proportion of clones originating from CD8+ T cell effector memory (T EM ) and CD4+ naïve / T CM populations and ending in the CD8+ T RM and CD8+ T CM clusters, suggesting a clonal expansion and predicted trajectory of T cells towards a tissue resident, cytotoxic environment within the valve. CDR3 epitope predictive analysis identified 7 potential epitope targets, of which GALNT4 and CR1L have previously been implicated in a cardiovascular context as mediators of inflammation. Taken together, the data identified T cell sub-populations within the context of CAVD and further predicted possible epitopes responsible for the clonal expansion of the valvular T cells, which may be important for propagating inflammation in CAVD.

Novel Association of the NOTCH Pathway Regulator MIB1 Gene With the Development of Bicuspid Aortic Valve.

Importance: Nonsyndromic bicuspid aortic valve (nsBAV) is the most common congenital heart valve malformation. BAV has a heritable component, yet only a few causative genes have been identified; understanding BAV genetics is a key point in developing personalized medicine. Objective: To identify a new gene for nsBAV. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a comprehensive, multicenter, genetic association study based on candidate gene prioritization in a familial cohort followed by rare and common association studies in replication cohorts. Further validation was done using in vivo mice models. Study data were analyzed from October 2019 to October 2022. Three cohorts of patients with BAV were included in the study: (1) the discovery cohort was a large cohort of inherited cases from 29 pedigrees of French and Israeli origin; (2) the replication cohort 1 for rare variants included unrelated sporadic cases from various European ancestries; and (3) replication cohort 2 was a second validation cohort for common variants in unrelated sporadic cases from Europe and the US. Main Outcomes and Measures: To identify a candidate gene for nsBAV through analysis of familial cases exome sequencing and gene prioritization tools. Replication cohort 1 was searched for rare and predicted deleterious variants and genetic association. Replication cohort 2 was used to investigate the association of common variants with BAV. Results: A total of 938 patients with BAV were included in this study: 69 (7.4%) in the discovery cohort, 417 (44.5%) in replication cohort 1, and 452 (48.2%) in replication cohort 2. A novel human nsBAV gene, MINDBOMB1 homologue MIB1, was identified. MINDBOMB1 homologue (MIB1) is an E3-ubiquitin ligase essential for NOTCH-signal activation during heart development. In approximately 2% of nsBAV index cases from the discovery and replication 1 cohorts, rare MIB1 variants were detected, predicted to be damaging, and were significantly enriched compared with population-based controls (2% cases vs 0.9% controls; P = .03). In replication cohort 2, MIB1 risk haplotypes significantly associated with nsBAV were identified (permutation test, 1000 repeats; P = .02). Two genetically modified mice models carrying Mib1 variants identified in our cohort showed BAV on a NOTCH1-sensitized genetic background. Conclusions and Relevance: This genetic association study identified the MIB1 gene as associated with nsBAV. This underscores the crucial role of the NOTCH pathway in the pathophysiology of BAV and its potential as a target for future diagnostic and therapeutic intervention.

Preoperative Tricuspid Regurgitation Is Associated With Long-Term Mortality and Is Graded More Severe Than Intraoperative Tricuspid Regurgitation.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether preoperative (preop) tricuspid regurgitation (TR) severity grade was associated with postoperative mortality, to examine the correlation between pre-op and intraoperative (intraop) TR grades, and to understand which TR grade had better prognostic predictability in cardiac surgery patients. DESIGN: Retrospective. SETTING: Single institution. PARTICIPANTS: Patients. INTERVENTIONS: Preop and intraop echocardiography TR grades of 4,232 patients who had undergone cardiac surgeries between 2004 and 2014 were examined. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the association between TR grades and the primary endpoint of all-cause mortality. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Spearman's rank correlation were analyzed to assess the similarity and correlation between preop and intraop-grade pairs. Multivariate logistic regression models of the area under the curve characteristics were compared for prognostic implications. Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated a strong relationship between preop grades and survival. Multivariate models showed significantly increased mortality starting at mild preop TR (mild TR: hazard ratio [HR] 1.24; 95% CI 1.05-1.46, p = 0.013; moderate TR: HR 1.60; 95% CI 1.05-1.97, p < 0.001; severe TR: HR 2.50; 95% CI 1.74-3.58, p < 0.001). Preop TR grades were mostly higher than intraop grades. Spearman's correlation was 0.55 (p < 0.001). The area under the curves of preop and intraop TR-based models were almost identical (0.704 v 0.702 1-year mortality and 0.704 v 0.700 2-year mortality). CONCLUSIONS: The authors found that echocardiographically-determined preop TR grade at the time of surgical planning was associated with long-term mortality, starting even at a mild grade. Preop grades were higher than intraop grades, with a moderate correlation. Preop and intraop grades exhibited similar prognostic implications.

Multiomics of Tissue Extracellular Vesicles Identifies Unique Modulators of Atherosclerosis and Calcific Aortic Valve Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Fewer than 50% of patients who develop aortic valve calcification have concomitant atherosclerosis, implying differential pathogenesis. Although circulating extracellular vesicles (EVs) act as biomarkers of cardiovascular diseases, tissue-entrapped EVs are associated with early mineralization, but their cargoes, functions, and contributions to disease remain unknown. METHODS: Disease stage-specific proteomics was performed on human carotid endarterectomy specimens (n=16) and stenotic aortic valves (n=18). Tissue EVs were isolated from human carotid arteries (normal, n=6; diseased, n=4) and aortic valves (normal, n=6; diseased, n=4) by enzymatic digestion, (ultra)centrifugation, and a 15-fraction density gradient validated by proteomics, CD63-immunogold electron microscopy, and nanoparticle tracking analysis. Vesiculomics, comprising vesicular proteomics and small RNA-sequencing, was conducted on tissue EVs. TargetScan identified microRNA targets. Pathway network analyses prioritized genes for validation in primary human carotid artery smooth muscle cells and aortic valvular interstitial cells. RESULTS: Disease progression drove significant convergence (P<0.0001) of carotid artery plaque and calcified aortic valve proteomes (2318 proteins). Each tissue also retained a unique subset of differentially enriched proteins (381 in plaques; 226 in valves; q<0.05). Vesicular gene ontology terms increased 2.9-fold (P<0.0001) among proteins modulated by disease in both tissues. Proteomics identified 22 EV markers in tissue digest fractions. Networks of proteins and microRNA targets changed by disease progression in both artery and valve EVs revealed shared involvement in intracellular signaling and cell cycle regulation. Vesiculomics identified 773 proteins and 80 microRNAs differentially enriched by disease exclusively in artery or valve EVs (q<0.05); multiomics integration found tissue-specific EV cargoes associated with procalcific Notch and Wnt signaling in carotid arteries and aortic valves, respectively. Knockdown of tissue-specific EV-derived molecules FGFR2, PPP2CA, and ADAM17 in human carotid artery smooth muscle cells and WNT5A, APP, and APC in human aortic valvular interstitial cells significantly modulated calcification. CONCLUSIONS: The first comparative proteomics study of human carotid artery plaques and calcified aortic valves identifies unique drivers of atherosclerosis versus aortic valve stenosis and implicates EVs in advanced cardiovascular calcification. We delineate a vesiculomics strategy to isolate, purify, and study protein and RNA cargoes from EVs entrapped in fibrocalcific tissues. Integration of vesicular proteomics and transcriptomics by network approaches revealed novel roles for tissue EVs in modulating cardiovascular disease.

Patient-, Clinician-, and Institution-level Variation in Inotrope Use for Cardiac Surgery: A Multicenter Observational Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Conflicting evidence exists regarding the risks and benefits of inotropic therapies during cardiac surgery, and the extent of variation in clinical practice remains understudied. Therefore, the authors sought to quantify patient-, anesthesiologist-, and hospital-related contributions to variation in inotrope use. METHODS: In this observational study, nonemergent adult cardiac surgeries using cardiopulmonary bypass were reviewed across a multicenter cohort of academic and community hospitals from 2014 to 2019. Patients who were moribund, receiving mechanical circulatory support, or receiving preoperative or home inotropes were excluded. The primary outcome was an inotrope infusion (epinephrine, dobutamine, milrinone, dopamine) administered for greater than 60 consecutive min intraoperatively or ongoing upon transport from the operating room. Institution-, clinician-, and patient-level variance components were studied. RESULTS: Among 51,085 cases across 611 attending anesthesiologists and 29 hospitals, 27,033 (52.9%) cases received at least one intraoperative inotrope, including 21,796 (42.7%) epinephrine, 6,360 (12.4%) milrinone, 2,000 (3.9%) dobutamine, and 602 (1.2%) dopamine (non-mutually exclusive). Variation in inotrope use was 22.6% attributable to the institution, 6.8% attributable to the primary attending anesthesiologist, and 70.6% attributable to the patient. The adjusted median odds ratio for the same patient receiving inotropes was 1.73 between 2 randomly selected clinicians and 3.55 between 2 randomly selected institutions. Factors most strongly associated with increased likelihood of inotrope use were institutional medical school affiliation (adjusted odds ratio, 6.2; 95% CI, 1.39 to 27.8), heart failure (adjusted odds ratio, 2.60; 95% CI, 2.46 to 2.76), pulmonary circulation disorder (adjusted odds ratio, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.58 to 1.87), loop diuretic home medication (adjusted odds ratio, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.42 to 1.69), Black race (adjusted odds ratio, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.32 to 1.68), and digoxin home medication (adjusted odds ratio, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.86). CONCLUSIONS: Variation in inotrope use during cardiac surgery is attributable to the institution and to the clinician, in addition to the patient. Variation across institutions and clinicians suggests a need for future quantitative and qualitative research to understand variation in inotrope use affecting outcomes and develop evidence-based, patient-centered inotrope therapies.

Multivariable prediction models for atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Dozens of multivariable prediction models for atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery (AFACS) have been published, but none have been incorporated into regular clinical practice. One of the reasons for this lack of adoption is poor model performance due to methodological weaknesses in model development. In addition, there has been little external validation of these existing models to evaluate their reproducibility and transportability. The aim of this systematic review is to critically appraise the methodology and risk of bias of papers presenting the development and/or validation of models for AFACS. METHODS: We will identify studies that present the development and/or validation of a multivariable prediction model for AFACS through searches of PubMed, Embase and Web of Science from inception to 31 December 2021. Pairs of reviewers will independently extract model performance measures, assess methodological quality and assess risk of bias of included studies using extraction forms adapted from a combination of the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies checklist and the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Extracted information will be reported by narrative synthesis and descriptive statistics. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This systemic review will only include published aggregate data, so no protected health information will be used. Study findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and scientific conference presentations. Further, this review will identify weaknesses in past AFACS prediction model development and validation methodology so that subsequent studies can improve upon prior practices and produce a clinically useful risk estimation tool. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019127329.

Prognostic model for atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: a UK cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a validated clinical prognostic model to determine the risk of atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery as part of the PARADISE project (NIHR131227). METHODS: Prospective cohort study with linked electronic health records from a cohort of 5.6 million people in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 1998 to 2016. For model development, we considered a priori candidate predictors including demographics, medical history, medications, and clinical biomarkers. We evaluated associations between covariates and the AF incidence at the end of follow-up using logistic regression with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. The model was validated internally with the bootstrap method; subsequent performance was examined by discrimination quantified with the c-statistic and calibration assessed by calibration plots. The study follows TRIPOD guidelines. RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2016, 33,464 patients received cardiac surgery among the 5,601,803 eligible individuals. The final model included 13-predictors at baseline: age, year of index surgery, elevated CHA2DS2-VASc score, congestive heart failure, hypertension, acute coronary syndromes, mitral valve disease, ventricular tachycardia, valve surgery, receiving two combined procedures (e.g., valve replacement + coronary artery bypass grafting), or three combined procedures in the index procedure, statin use, and ethnicity other than white or black (statins and ethnicity were protective). This model had an optimism-corrected C-statistic of 0.68 both for the derivation and validation cohort. Calibration was good. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a model to identify a group of individuals at high risk of AF and adverse outcomes who could benefit from long-term arrhythmia monitoring, risk factor management, rhythm control and/or thromboprophylaxis.

Identifying Patients Vulnerable to Inadequate Pain Resolution After Cardiac Surgery.

Acute postoperative pain (APOP) is often evaluated through granular parameters, though monitoring postoperative pain using trends may better describe pain state. We investigated acute postoperative pain trajectories in cardiac surgical patients to identify subpopulations of pain resolution and elucidate predictors of problematic pain courses. We examined retrospective data from 2810 cardiac surgical patients at a single center. The k-means algorithm for longitudinal data was used to generate clusters of pain trajectories over the first 5 postoperative days. Patient characteristics were examined for association with cluster membership using ordinal and multinomial logistic regression. We identified 3 subgroups of pain resolution after cardiac surgery: 37.7% with good resolution, 44.2% with moderate resolution, and 18.2% exhibiting poor resolution. Type I diabetes (2.04 [1.00-4.16], p = 0.05), preoperative opioid use (1.65 [1.23-2.22], p = 0.001), and illicit drug use (1.89 [1.26-2.83], p = 0.002) elevated risk of membership into worse pain trajectory clusters. Female gender (1.72 [1.30-2.27], p < 0.001), depression (1.60 [1.03-2.50], p = 0.04) and chronic pain (3.28 [1.79-5.99], p < 0.001) increased risk of membership in the worst pain resolution cluster. This study defined 3 APOP resolution subgroups based on pain score trend after cardiac surgery and identified factors that predisposed patients to worse resolution. Patients with moderate or poor pain trajectory consumed more opioids and received them for longer before discharge. Future studies are warranted to determine if altering postoperative pain monitoring and management improve postoperative course of patients at risk of moderate or poor pain resolution.

The Hypoxia-Adenosine Link during Myocardial Ischemia-Reperfusion Injury.

Despite increasing availability and more successful interventional approaches to restore coronary reperfusion, myocardial ischemia-reperfusion injury is a substantial cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. During myocardial ischemia, the myocardium becomes profoundly hypoxic, thus causing stabilization of hypoxia-inducible transcription factors (HIF). Stabilization of HIF leads to a transcriptional program that promotes adaptation to hypoxia and cellular survival. Transcriptional consequences of HIF stabilization include increases in extracellular production and signaling effects of adenosine. Extracellular adenosine functions as a signaling molecule via the activation of adenosine receptors. Several studies implicated adenosine signaling in cardioprotection, particularly through the activation of the Adora2a and Adora2b receptors. Adenosine receptor activation can lead to metabolic adaptation to enhance ischemia tolerance or dampen myocardial reperfusion injury via signaling events on immune cells. Many studies highlight that clinical strategies to target the hypoxia-adenosine link could be considered for clinical trials. This could be achieved by using pharmacologic HIF activators or by directly enhancing extracellular adenosine production or signaling as a therapy for patients with acute myocardial infarction, or undergoing cardiac surgery.

Sex Differences in In-Hospital Mortality After Open Cardiac Valve Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac valvular disease affects millions of people worldwide and is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Female patients have been shown to experience inferior clinical outcomes after nonvalvular cardiac surgery, but recent data are limited regarding open valve surgical cohorts. The primary objective of our study was to assess whether female sex is associated with increased in-hospital mortality after open cardiac valve operations. METHODS: Utilizing the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) State Inpatient Databases (SID), we conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent open cardiac valve surgery from 2007 to 2018 in Washington, Maryland, Kentucky, and Florida; from 2007 to 2011 in California; and from 2007 to 2016 in New York. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the confounder-adjusted association between sex and in-hospital mortality (as recorded and coded by SID HCUP) after open cardiac valve surgery. We used multilevel multivariable models to account for potential confounders, including intrahospital practice patterns. RESULTS: A total of 272,954 patients (108,443 women; 39.73% of sample population with mean age of 67.6 ± 14.3 years) were included in our analysis. The overall mortality rates were 3.8% for male patients and 5.1% for female patients. The confounder-adjusted odds ratio (OR) for in-hospital mortality for female patients compared to male patients was 1.41 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-1.47; P < .001). When stratifying by surgical type, female patients were also at increased odds of in-hospital mortality ( P < .001) in populations undergoing aortic valve replacement (adjusted OR [aOR], 1.38; 95% CI, 1.25-1.52); multiple valve surgery (aOR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.22-1.57); mitral valve replacement (aOR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.12 - 1.34); and valve surgery with coronary artery bypass grafting (aOR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.54 - 1.74; all P < .001). Female patients did not have increased odds of in-hospital mortality in populations undergoing mitral valve repair (aOR, 1.26; 95% CI, 0.98 - 1.64; P = .075); aortic valve repair (aOR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.67 - 1.14; P = .32); or any other single valve repair (aOR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.82 - 1.46; P = .53). CONCLUSIONS: We found an association between female patients and increased confounder-adjusted odds of in-hospital mortality after open cardiac valve surgery. More research is needed to better understand and categorize these important outcome differences. Future research should include observational analysis containing granular and complete patient- and surgery-specific data.

COVID-19 increases the risk for the onset of atrial fibrillation in hospitalized patients.

COVID-19 is associated with significant extrapulmonary symptoms. Myocardial involvement has been described for infections with SARS-CoV-2 which may lead to an increase in morbidity and mortality. The objective of our study was to investigate the association of COVID-19 and atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial flutter (AFl) in hospitalized patients. This retrospective study used electronic medical records to detect patients with COVID-19 and their comorbidities within the Mass General Brigham hospital system. All patients ≥ 18 years who were hospitalized and received a PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 were screened for inclusion as well as patients from a pre-pandemic cohort. We matched on common risk factors for AF and then used multivariable logistic regression to estimate the odds for AF or AFl. Of 78,725 patients eligible for analysis, 11,004 COVID-19 negative patients were matched to 3,090 COVID-19 positive patients and 5005 pre-pandemic patients were matched to 2283 COVID-19 positive patients. After adjusting for demographics and comorbidities, COVID-19 positive patients had 1.19 times the odds (95% CI 1.00, 1.41) of developing AF compared to COVID-19 negative patients and 1.57 times the odds (95% CI 1.23, 2.00) of developing AF compared to pre-pandemic patients. Our study demonstrated an increased risk for AF, directing the attention for improved screening and treatment regimens for the sequelae of COVID-19. While COVID-19 continues to affect many people around the world, AF may be a significant cause for morbidity and mortality. Adequate detection and treatment of AF is essential to reduce the burden of disease.