Modeling dragonfly population data with a Bayesian bivariate geometric mixed-effects model.

We develop a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) for bivariate count responses for statistically analyzing dragonfly population data from the Northern Netherlands. The populations of the threatened dragonfly species Aeshna viridis were counted in the years 2015-2018 at 17 different locations (ponds and ditches). Two different widely applied population size measures were used to quantify the population sizes, namely the number of found exoskeletons ('exuviae') and the number of spotted egg-laying females were counted. Since both measures (responses) led to many zero counts but also feature very large counts, our GLMM model builds on a zero-inflated bivariate geometric (ZIBGe) distribution, for which we show that it can be easily parameterized in terms of a correlation parameter and its two marginal medians. We model the medians with linear combinations of fixed (environmental covariates) and random (location-specific intercepts) effects. Modeling the medians yields a decreased sensitivity to overly large counts; in particular, in light of growing marginal zero inflation rates. Because of the relatively small sample size (n = 114) we follow a Bayesian modeling approach and use Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations for generating posterior samples.

Clonal variation in physiological responses of Daphnia magna to the strobilurin fungicide azoxystrobin.

Because of its high grazing potential, Daphnia magna is an ecologically important species in aquatic food webs. This is especially true in small, shallow ponds lacking fish, where grazing by D. magna may have a relatively higher impact on water clarity as compared to larger lakes. Thus, a reduction in daphnid abundance may have dramatic ecological consequences for shallow ponds. At the same time, shallow ponds in close proximity to agricultural areas likely experience higher concentrations of pesticides because of runoff, spray drift, and drain flow. In the present study, the acute and chronic physiological effects of the strobilurin fungicide azoxystrobin on three clones of D. magna originating from different Danish lakes were evaluated. Significant clonal variation in the sensitivity of D. magna toward azoxystrobin was demonstrated. One clone had a 48-h median lethal concentration (LC50) of 0.277 mg/L (95% confidence limits [CL], 0.145 and 0.427 mg/L), which is comparable to the value widely used in risk assessments (0.259 mg/L). The two remaining clones were far more sensitive, however, and had LC50s of 0.071 mg/L (95% CL, 0.034 and 0.126 mg/L) and 0.098 mg/L (95% CL, 0.066 and 0.139 mg/L), respectively. Furthermore, through respiration measurements and life-table experiments, sublethal stress was shown to exist at exposure to an ecologically relevant concentration (0.026 microg/L). Based on these results, we may expect changes in daphnid populations at azoxystrobin concentrations much lower than previously thought. Thus, ponds in the agricultural areas may experience changes in food-web structure even at very low concentrations of azoxystrobin.