Polygenic risk score for ulcerative colitis predicts immune checkpoint inhibitor-mediated colitis.

Immune checkpoint inhibitor-mediated colitis (IMC) is a common adverse event of treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). We hypothesize that genetic susceptibility to Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) predisposes to IMC. In this study, we first develop a polygenic risk scores for CD (PRSCD) and UC (PRSUC) in cancer-free individuals and then test these PRSs on IMC in a cohort of 1316 patients with ICI-treated non-small cell lung cancer and perform a replication in 873 ICI-treated pan-cancer patients. In a meta-analysis, the PRSUC predicts all-grade IMC (ORmeta=1.35 per standard deviation [SD], 95% CI = 1.12-1.64, P = 2×10-03) and severe IMC (ORmeta=1.49 per SD, 95% CI = 1.18-1.88, P = 9×10-04). PRSCD is not associated with IMC. Furthermore, PRSUC predicts severe IMC among patients treated with combination ICIs (ORmeta=2.20 per SD, 95% CI = 1.07-4.53, P = 0.03). Overall, PRSUC can identify patients receiving ICI at risk of developing IMC and may be useful to monitor patients and improve patient outcomes.

Incidence of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease in patients with multiple sclerosis initiating disease-modifying therapies: Retrospective cohort study using a frequentist model averaging statistical framework.

Researchers are increasingly using insights derived from large-scale, electronic healthcare data to inform drug development and provide human validation of novel treatment pathways and aid in drug repurposing/repositioning. The objective of this study was to determine whether treatment of patients with multiple sclerosis with dimethyl fumarate, an activator of the nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) pathway, results in a change in incidence of type 2 diabetes and its complications. This retrospective cohort study used administrative claims data to derive four cohorts of adults with multiple sclerosis initiating dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate or fingolimod between January 2013 and December 2018. A causal inference frequentist model averaging framework based on machine learning was used to compare the time to first occurrence of a composite endpoint of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease or chronic kidney disease, as well as each individual outcome, across the four treatment cohorts. There was a statistically significantly lower risk of incidence for dimethyl fumarate versus teriflunomide for the composite endpoint (restricted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] 0.70 [0.55, 0.90]) and type 2 diabetes (0.65 [0.49, 0.98]), myocardial infarction (0.59 [0.35, 0.97]) and chronic kidney disease (0.52 [0.28, 0.86]). No differences for other individual outcomes or for dimethyl fumarate versus the other two cohorts were observed. This study effectively demonstrated the use of an innovative statistical methodology to test a clinical hypothesis using real-world data to perform early target validation for drug discovery. Although there was a trend among patients treated with dimethyl fumarate towards a decreased incidence of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease relative to other disease-modifying therapies-which was statistically significant for the comparison with teriflunomide-this study did not definitively support the hypothesis that Nrf2 activation provided additional metabolic disease benefit in patients with multiple sclerosis.

Polygenic risk score for ulcerative colitis predicts immune checkpoint inhibitor-mediated colitis.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are a remarkable advancement in cancer therapeutics; however, a substantial proportion of patients develop severe immune-related adverse events (irAEs). Understanding and predicting irAEs is a key to advancing precision immuno-oncology. Immune checkpoint inhibitor-mediated colitis (IMC) is a significant complication from ICI and can have life-threatening consequences. Based on clinical presentation, IMC mimics inflammatory bowel disease, however the link is poorly understood. We hypothesized that genetic susceptibility to Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) may predispose to IMC. We developed and validated polygenic risk scores for CD (PRSCD) and UC (PRSUC) in cancer-free individuals and assessed the role of each of these PRSs on IMC in a cohort of 1,316 patients with non-small cell lung cancer who received ICIs. Prevalence of all-grade IMC in our cohort was 4% (55 cases), and for severe IMC, 2.5% (32 cases). The PRSUC predicted the development of all-grade IMC (HR=1.34 per standard deviation [SD], 95% CI=1.02-1.76, P=0.04) and severe IMC (HR=1.62 per SD, 95% CI=1.12-2.35, P=0.01). PRSCD was not associated with IMC or severe IMC. The association between PRSUC and IMC (all-grade and severe) was consistent in an independent pan-cancer cohort of patients treated with ICIs. Furthermore, PRSUC predicted severe IMC among patients treated with combination ICIs (OR = 2.20 per SD, 95% CI = 1.07-4.53, P=0.03). This is the first study to demonstrate the potential clinical utility of a PRS for ulcerative colitis in identifying patients receiving ICI at high risk of developing IMC, where risk reduction and close monitoring strategies could help improve overall patient outcomes.

FDRestimation: Flexible False Discovery Rate Computation in R.

False discovery rates (FDR) are an essential component of statistical inference, representing the propensity for an observed result to be mistaken. FDR estimates should accompany observed results to help the user contextualize the relevance and potential impact of findings. This paper introduces a new user-friendly R pack-age for estimating FDRs and computing adjusted p-values for FDR control. The roles of these two quantities are often confused in practice and some software packages even report the adjusted p-values as the estimated FDRs. A key contribution of this package is that it distinguishes between these two quantities while also offering a broad array of refined algorithms for estimating them. For example, included are newly augmented methods for estimating the null proportion of findings - an important part of the FDR estimation procedure. The package is broad, encompassing a variety of adjustment methods for FDR estimation and FDR control, and includes plotting functions for easy display of results. Through extensive illustrations, we strongly encourage wider reporting of false discovery rates for observed findings.

Immunotherapy-Mediated Thyroid Dysfunction: Genetic Risk and Impact on Outcomes with PD-1 Blockade in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PURPOSE: Genetic differences in immunity may contribute to toxicity and outcomes with immune checkpoint inhibitor (CPI) therapy, but these relationships are poorly understood. We examined the genetics of thyroid immune-related adverse events (irAE). EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: In patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with CPIs at Memorial Sloan Kettering (MSK) and Vanderbilt University Medical Center (VUMC), we evaluated thyroid irAEs. We typed germline DNA using genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays and imputed genotypes. Germline SNP imputation was also performed in an independent Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (DFCI) cohort. We developed and validated polygenic risk scores (PRS) for hypothyroidism in noncancer patients using the UK and VUMC BioVU biobanks. These PRSs were applied to thyroid irAEs and CPI response in patients with NSCLC at MSK, VUMC, and DFCI. RESULTS: Among 744 patients at MSK and VUMC, thyroid irAEs occurred in 13% and were associated with improved outcomes [progression-free survival adjusted HR (PFS aHR) = 0.68; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.52-0.88]. The PRS for hypothyroidism developed from UK Biobank predicted hypothyroidism in the BioVU dataset in noncancer patients [OR per standard deviation (SD) = 1.33, 95% CI, 1.29-1.37; AUROC = 0.6]. The same PRS also predicted development of thyroid irAEs in both independent cohorts of patients treated with CPIs (HR per SD = 1.34; 95% CI, 1.08-1.66; AUROC = 0.6). The results were similar in the DFCI cohort. However, PRS for hypothyroidism did not predict CPI benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Thyroid irAEs were associated with response to anti-PD-1 therapy. Genetic risk for hypothyroidism was associated with risk of developing thyroid irAEs. Additional studies are needed to determine whether other irAEs also have shared genetic risk with known autoimmune disorders and the association with treatment response.