Projected health workforce requirements and shortage for addressing the disease burden in the WHO Africa Region, 2022-2030: a needs-based modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: An adequate health workforce (HWF) is essential to achieving the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), including universal health coverage. However, weak HWF planning and constrained fiscal space for health, among other factors in the WHO Africa Region, has consistently resulted in underinvestment in HWF development, shortages of the HWF at the frontlines of service delivery and unemployment of qualified and trained health workers. This is further compounded by the ever-evolving disease burden and reduced access to essential health services along the continuum of health promotion, disease prevention, diagnostics, curative care, rehabilitation and palliative care. METHODS: A stock and flow model based on HWF stock in 2022, age structure, graduation and migration was conducted to project the available stock by 2030. To estimate the gap between the projected stock and the need, a population needs-based modelling was conducted to forecast the HWF needs by 2030. These estimations were conducted for all 47 countries in the WHO African Region. Combining the stock projection and needs-based estimation, the modelling framework included the stock of health workers, the population's need for health services, the need for health workers and gap analysis expressed as a needs-based shortage of health workers. RESULTS: The needs-based requirement for health workers in Africa was estimated to be 9.75 million in 2022, with an expected 21% increase to 11.8 million by 2030. The available health workers in 2022 covered 43% of the needs-based requirements and are anticipated to improve to 49% by 2030 if the current trajectory of training and education outputs is maintained. An increase of at least 40% in the stock of health workers between 2022 and 2030 is anticipated, but this increase would still leave a needs-based shortage of 6.1 million workers by 2030. Considering only the SDG 3.c.1 tracer occupations (medical doctors, nurses, midwives, pharmacists and dentists), the projected needs-based shortage is 5.3 million by 2030. In sensitivity analysis, the needs-based shortage is most amenable to the prevalence of diseases/risk factors and professional standards for service delivery CONCLUSIONS: The WHO African Region would need to more than double its 2022 HWF stock if the growing population's health needs are to be adequately addressed. The present analysis offers new prospects to better plan HWF efforts considering country-specific HWF structure, and the burden of disease.

Health workforce strategies during COVID-19 response: insights from 15 countries in the WHO Africa Region.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic unveiled huge challenges in health workforce governance in the context of public health emergencies in Africa. Several countries applied several measures to ensure access to qualified and skilled health workers to respond to the pandemic and provide essential health services. However, there has been limited documentation of these measures. This study was undertaken to examine the health workforce governance strategies applied by 15 countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) Africa Region in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We extracted data from country case studies developed from national policy documents, reports and grey literature obtained from the Ministries of Health and other service delivery agencies. This study was conducted from October 2020 to January 2021 in 15 countries - Angola, Burkina Faso, Chad, Eswatini, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo. RESULTS: All 15 countries had national multi-sectoral bodies to manage the COVID-19 response and a costed national COVID-19 response plan. All the countries also reflected human resources for health (HRH) activities along the different response pillars. These activities included training for health workers, and budget for the recruitment or mobilization of additional health workers to support the response, and for provision of financial and non-financial incentives for health workers. Nine countries recruited additional 35,812 health workers either on a permanent or temporary basis to respond to the COVID-19 with an abridged process of recruitment implemented to ensure needed health workers are in place on time. Six countries redeployed 3671 health workers to respond to the COVID-19. The redeployment of existing health workers was reported to have impacted negatively on essential health service provision. CONCLUSION: Strengthening multi-sector engagement in the development of public health emergency plans is critical as this promotes the development of holistic interventions needed to improve health workforce availability, retention, incentivization, and coordination. It also ensures optimized utilization based on competencies, especially for the existing health workers.

The state and significant drivers of health systems efficiency in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Low-and-middle-income countries, especially in Africa, lack the capacity to adequately invest in health systems to attain universal health coverage (UHC). As such, countries must improve efficiency and provide more services within the available resources. This systematic review synthesised evidence on the efficiency of health systems in the African region and its drivers. Methods: We conducted a systematic literature review guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 statement. Related studies were grouped and meta-analysed, while others were descriptively analysed. We employed a qualitative content synthesis for synthesising the drivers of efficiency. Results: Overall, 39 studies met a predetermined inclusion criterion and were included from a possible 4 609 records retrieved through a rigorous search and selection process. Using a random effects restricted maximum likelihood method, the pooled efficiency score for the Africa region was estimated to be 0.77, implying that on the flip side, health system inefficiency across countries in the African region was approximately 23%. Across 22 studies that used data envelopment analysis to examine efficiency at the level of health facilities and sub-national entities, the efficiency level was 0.67. Facility-level studies tended to estimate low levels of efficiency compared to health system-level studies. Across the 39 studies, 21 significant drivers of inefficiency were reported, including population density of the catchment area, governance, health facility ownership, health facility staff density, national economic status, type of health facility, education index, hospital size and bed occupancy rate. Conclusion: With approximately 23% of the inefficiency of health systems in Africa, improving efficiency alone will yield an average of 34% improvement in resource availability, assuming all countries are performing similarly to the frontier countries. However, with the low level of health expenditure per capita in Africa, the efficiency gains alone will be insufficient to meet the minimum funding requirement for UHC. Registration: PROSPERO: CRD42022318122.

The nature and contribution of innovative health financing mechanisms in the World Health Organization African region: A scoping review.

Background: Achieving financial risk protection for the whole population requires significant financing for health. Health systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) are plagued with persistent underfunding, and recent reductions in official development assistance have been registered. To create fiscal space for health, the pursuit of efficiency gains and exploring innovative health financing for health seem attractive. This paper sought to synthesize available evidence on the nature of innovative health financing instruments, mechanisms and policies implemented in Africa. We further reviewed the factors that hinder or facilitate implementation, the lessons learnt on the structure, the development process and the implementation. Methods: We conducted a systematic scoping review of the literature to analyze the nature, type, and factors impacting the implementation of innovative health financing mechanisms in the World Health Organization (WHO) African region. Results: Innovative health financing mechanisms are increasing in the WHO African region as a result of international policy, the need to improve healthy eating and social life of the populace, advocacy and the availability of international mechanisms to which countries can subscribe. The 41 documents included in this review reported ten innovative financing mechanisms in 43 out of the 47 WHO Africa region member states. The most common mechanisms include an excise tax on tobacco products (43 countries) and alcoholic beverages and spirits (41 countries), airline ticket levy (18 countries), sugar-based beverages tax (seven countries), and levy on oil, gas and mineral tax (four countries). Other mechanisms include the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) trust fund, the social impact bond, the financial transaction tax, mobile phone tax and equity funds. Funds generated from many mechanisms are not allocated to health, although some portions are allocated to health-related activities. In some countries where mechanisms implemented are public health-related, emphasis is placed on positive health behavior beyond raising funds. Persistent resistance from industries due to conflicting economic policies is a major challenge. Conclusions: Leveraging international policies and setting up intersectoral committees to develop and implement innovative mechanisms that involve excise taxes are recommended as possible solutions to the conflicts of interest.

COVID-19 vaccination rollout in the World Health Organization African region: status at end June 2022 and way forward.

In October 2021, the WHO published an ambitious strategy to ensure that all countries had vaccinated 40% of their population by the end of 2021 and 70% by mid-2022. The end of June 2022 marks 18 months of implementation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination in the African region and provides an opportunity to look back and think ahead about COVID-19 vaccine set targets, demand and delivery strategies. As of 26 June 2022 two countries in the WHO African region have achieved this target (Mauritius and Seychelles) and seven are on track, having vaccinated between 40% and 69% of their population. By the 26 June 2022, seven among the 20 countries that had less than 10% of people fully vaccinated at the end of January 2022, have surpassed 15% of people fully vaccinated at the end of June 2022. This includes five targeted countries, which are being supported by the WHO Regional Office for Africa through the Multi-Partners' Country Support Team Initiative. As we enter the second semester of 2022, a window of opportunity has opened to provide new impetus to COVID-19 vaccination rollout in the African region guided by the four principles: Scale-up, Transition, Consolidation and Communication. Member States need to build on progress made to ensure that this impetus is not lost and that the African region does not remain the least vaccinated global region, as economies open up and world priorities change.

Investing in the health workforce: fiscal space analysis of 20 countries in East and Southern Africa, 2021-2026.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The health workforce (HWF) is at the core of ensuring an efficient, effective and functional health system, but it faces chronic underinvestment. This paper presents a fiscal space analysis of 20 countries in East and Southern Africa to generate sustained evidence-based advocacy for significant and smarter investment in the HWF. METHODS: We adapted an established empirical framework for fiscal space analysis and applied it to the HWF. Country-specific data were curated and triangulated from publicly available datasets and government reports to model the fiscal space for the HWF for each country. Based on the current knowledge, three scenarios (business as-usual, optimistic and very optimistic) were modelled and compared. FINDINGS: A business-as-usual scenario shows that the cumulative fiscal space across the 20 countries is US$12.179 billion, which would likely increase by 28% to US$15.612 billion by 2026 but varies across countries-the highest proportional increases expected in Seychelles (117%) and Mozambique (69%) but lowest in Zambia (15%). Under optimistic assumptions, allocating an additional 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) to health even without further prioritising the proportional allocation to the wage bill could boost the cumulative fiscal space for HWF by US$4.639 billion. In a very optimistic scenario of a 1.5% increase in health expenditure as a proportion of GDP and further prioritisation of HWF within the health expenditure, the cumulative fiscal space for HWF could improve by some 105%-ranging from 24% in Zambia to 330% in Lesotho. CONCLUSION: Small increments in government health expenditure and increased prioritisation of HWF in funding in tandem with the 57% global average could potentially increase the fiscal space for HWF by at least 32% in 11 countries. Unless the HWF is sufficiently prioritised within the health expenditures, only increasing the overall health expenditure to even recommended levels would still portend severe underinvestment in HWF amid unabating shortages to deliver health services. Thus, HWF strategies and investment plans should include fiscal space analysis to deepen advocacy for sustainable investment in the HWF.

The health workforce status in the WHO African Region: findings of a cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: Several efforts have been made globally to strengthen the health workforce (HWF); however, significant challenges still persist especially in the African Region. This study was conducted by the WHO Regional Office for Africa to present the status of the HWF in 47 countries as a baseline in measuring countries' progress in implementing the Global Strategy for HWF by 2030. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional survey of 47 countries in the African Region using a semistructured questionnaire. Data were collected from January 2018 to April 2019. Before data collection, a tool was developed and piloted in four countries. The completed tools were validated in the countries by relevant stakeholders in the 47 countries. Data were collated and analysed in Epi Info and Microsoft Excel. RESULTS: The total stock of health workers was approximately 3.6 million across 47 countries. Among these, 37% of the health workers were nurses and midwives, 9% were medical doctors, 10% were laboratory personnel, 14% were community health workers, 14% were other health workers, and 12% were administrative and support staff. Results show uneven distribution of health workers within the African Region. Most health workers (85%) are in the public sector. Regional density of physicians, nurses and midwives per 1000 population was 1.55, only 4 countries had densities of more than 4.45 physicians, nurses and midwives per 1000 population. CONCLUSION: This survey has demonstrated that the shortage and maldistribution of health workers in the WHO African Region remain a big challenge towards the attainment of universal access to health services. This calls for the need to substantially increase investment in the HWF based on contextual evidence in line with the current and future health needs.

Measuring child survival for the Millennium Development Goals in Africa: what have we learned and what more is needed to evaluate the Sustainable Development Goals?

Reducing child mortality is a key global health challenge. We examined reasons for greater or lesser success in meeting under-five mortality rate reductions, i.e. Millennium Development Goal #4, between 1990 and 2015 in Sub-Saharan Africa where child mortality remains high. We first examined factors associated with child mortality from all World Health Organization African Region nations during the Millennium Development Goal period. This analysis was followed by case studies of the facilitators and barriers to Millennium Development Goal #4 in four countries - Kenya, Liberia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Quantitative indicators, policy documents, and qualitative interviews and focus groups were collected from each country to examine factors within and across countries related to child mortality. We found familiar themes that highlighted the need for both specific services (e.g. primary care access, emergency obstetric and neonatal care) and general management (e.g. strong health governance and leadership, increasing community health workers, quality of care). We also identified methodological opportunities and challenges to assessing progress in child health, which can provide insights to similar efforts during the Sustainable Development Goal period. Specifically, it is important for countries to adapt general international goals and measurements to their national context, considering baseline mortality rates and health information systems, to develop country-specific goals. It will also be critical to develop more rigorous measurement tools and indicators to accurately characterize maternal, neonatal, and child health systems, particularly in the area of governance and leadership. Valuable lessons can be learned from Millennium Development Goal successes and failures, as well as how they are evaluated. As countries seek to lower child mortality further during the Sustainable Development Goal period, it will be necessary to prioritize and support countries in quantitative and qualitative data collection to assess and contextualize progress, identifying areas needing improvement.

Safety and effectiveness of intravenous iron sucrose versus standard oral iron therapy in pregnant women with moderate-to-severe anaemia in India: a multicentre, open-label, phase 3, randomised, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Intravenous iron sucrose is a promising therapy for increasing haemoglobin concentration; however, its effect on clinical outcomes in pregnancy is not yet established. We aimed to assess the safety and clinical effectiveness of intravenous iron sucrose (intervention) versus standard oral iron (control) therapy in the treatment of women with moderate-to-severe iron deficiency anaemia in pregnancy. METHODS: We did a multicentre, open-label, phase 3, randomised, controlled trial at four government medical colleges in India. Pregnant women, aged 18 years or older, at 20-28 weeks of gestation with a haemoglobin concentration of 5-8 g/dL, or at 29-32 weeks of gestation with a haemoglobin concentration of 5-9 g/dL, were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive intravenous iron sucrose (dose was calculated using a formula based on bodyweight and haemoglobin deficit) or standard oral iron therapy (100 mg elemental iron twice daily). Logistic regression was used to compare the primary maternal composite outcome consisting of potentially life-threatening conditions during peripartum and postpartum periods (postpartum haemorrhage, the need for blood transfusion during and after delivery, puerperal sepsis, shock, prolonged hospital stay [>3 days following vaginal delivery and >7 days after lower segment caesarean section], and intensive care unit admission or referral to higher centres) adjusted for site and severity of anaemia. The primary outcome was analysed in a modified intention-to-treat population, which excluded participants who refused to participate after randomisation, those who were lost to follow-up, and those whose outcome data were missing. Safety was assessed in both modified intention-to-treat and as-treated populations. The data safety monitoring board recommended stopping the trial after the first interim analysis because of futility (conditional power 1·14% under the null effects, 3·0% under the continued effects, and 44·83% under hypothesised effects). This trial is registered with the Clinical Trial Registry of India, CTRI/2012/05/002626. FINDINGS: Between Jan 31, 2014, and July 31, 2017, 2018 women were enrolled, and 999 were randomly assigned to the intravenous iron sucrose group and 1019 to the standard therapy group. The primary maternal composite outcome was reported in 89 (9%) of 958 patients in the intravenous iron sucrose group and in 95 (10%) of 976 patients in the standard therapy group (adjusted odds ratio 0·95, 95% CI 0·70-1·29). 16 (2%) of 958 women in the intravenous iron sucrose group and 13 (1%) of 976 women in the standard therapy group had serious maternal adverse events. Serious fetal and neonatal adverse events were reported by 39 (4%) of 961 women in the intravenous iron sucrose group and 45 (5%) of 982 women in the standard therapy group. At 6 weeks post-randomisation, minor side-effects were reported by 117 (16%) of 737 women in the intravenous iron sucrose group versus 155 (21%) of 721 women in the standard therapy group. None of the serious adverse events was found to be related to the trial procedures or the interventions as per the causality assessment made by the trial investigators, ethics committees, and regulatory body. INTERPRETATION: The study was stopped due to futility. There is insufficient evidence to show the effectiveness of intravenous iron sucrose in reducing clinical outcomes compared with standard oral iron therapy in pregnant women with moderate-to-severe anaemia. FUNDING: WHO, India.

Scoping review to map evidence on mechanism of action, pharmacokinetics, effectiveness and side effects of centchroman as a contraceptive pill.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically identify and map the available evidence on effectiveness, side effects, pharmacokinetics and mechanism of action of centchroman as a contraceptive pill. INTRODUCTION: Centchroman was introduced in the Indian national family planning programme in 2016 as a once-a-week short-term contraceptive pill/oral contraceptive. At present there are no WHO recommendations on this method of contraception. We examined the available evidence through a scoping review. METHODS: A search was conducted inclusive to the years 1970-2019 on electronic databases, grey literature sources and reference lists of included studies to identify studies. The five stages of Arksey and O'Malley's scoping review framework were applied in undertaking this scoping review. RESULTS: The review identified 33 studies conducted between 1976 and 2017. Two studies reported mechanism of action of centchroman. Pharmacokinetics was reported by five studies among non-breastfeeding women and four studies among breastfeeding women. Eight studies reported on effectiveness ranging from 93% to 100%. Pregnancies due to user failure ranged from 2.6% to 10.2%. Although side effects were reported in 13 studies, the incidence varied greatly between the studies. Continuous bleeding and prolonged cycles >45 days were the most commonly reported side effects. All studies conducted had a small sample size and the duration of follow-up of women was 12 months or less. Fifty-five per cent of studies were by the developers of the pill (Central Drug Research Institute) and results of the phase IV clinical trial were unavailable. CONCLUSIONS: The scoping review shows that studies with robust designs and conducted in international context are lacking. Insufficient evidence exists on centchroman use as a postcoital contraceptive pill. The broad uncertainty in range of side effects and effectiveness in the studies implies insufficient evidence to make global recommendations on centchroman that is currently licensed as a contraceptive in India.

Promoting progress in child survival across four African countries: the role of strong health governance and leadership in maternal, neonatal and child health.

Despite numerous international and national efforts, only 12 countries in the World Health Organization's African Region met the Millennium Development Goal #4 (MDG#4) to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Given the variability across sub-Saharan Africa, a four-country study was undertaken to examine barriers and facilitators of child survival prior to 2015. Liberia and Zambia were chosen to represent countries making substantial progress towards MDG#4, while Kenya and Zimbabwe represented countries making less progress. Our individual case studies suggested that strong health governance and leadership (HGL) was a significant driver of the greater success in Liberia and Zambia compared with Kenya and Zimbabwe. To elucidate specific components of national HGL that may have substantially influenced the pace of reductions in child mortality, we conducted a cross-country analysis of national policies and strategies pertaining to maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) and qualitative interviews with individuals working in MNCH in each of the four study countries. The three aspects of HGL identified in this study which most consistently contributed to the different progress towards MDG#4 among the four study countries were (1) establishing child survival as a top national priority backed by a comprehensive policy and strategy framework and sufficient human, financial and material resources; (2) bringing together donors, strategic partners, health and non-health stakeholders and beneficiaries to collaborate in strategic planning, decision-making, resource-allocation and coordination of services; and (3) maintaining accountability through a 'monitor-review-act' approach to improve MNCH. Although child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa remains high, this comparative study suggests key health leadership and governance factors that can facilitate reduction of child mortality and may prove useful in tackling current Sustainable Development Goals.

Factors influencing rapid progress in child health in post-conflict Liberia: a mixed methods country case study on progress in child survival, 2000-2013.

OBJECTIVES: Only 12 countries in the WHO's African region met Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Given the variability across the African region, a four-country mixed methods study was undertaken to examine barriers and facilitators of child survival prior to 2015. Liberia was selected for an in-depth case study due to its success in reducing under-five mortality by 73% and thus successfully meeting MDG 4. Liberia's success was particularly notable given the civil war that ended in 2003. We examined some factors contributing to their reductions in under-five mortality. DESIGN: A case study mixed methods approach drawing on data from quantitative indicators, national documents and qualitative interviews was used to describe factors that enabled Liberia to rebuild their maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) programmes and reduce under-five mortality following the country's civil war. SETTING: The interviews were conducted in Monrovia (Montserrado County) and the areas in and around Gbarnga, Liberia (Bong County, North Central region). PARTICIPANTS: Key informant interviews were conducted with Ministry of Health officials, donor organisations, community-based organisations involved in MNCH and healthcare workers. Focus group discussions were conducted with women who have experience accessing MNCH services. RESULTS: Three prominent factors contributed to the reduction in under-five mortality: national prioritisation of MNCH after the civil war; implementation of integrated packages of services that expanded access to key interventions and promoted intersectoral collaborations; and use of outreach campaigns, community health workers and trained traditional midwives to expand access to care and improve referrals. CONCLUSIONS: Although Liberia experiences continued challenges related to limited resources, Liberia's effective strategies and rapid progress may provide insights for reducing under-five mortality in other post-conflict settings.

The introduction of new policies and strategies to reduce inequities and improve child health in Kenya: A country case study on progress in child survival, 2000-2013.

As of 2015, only 12 countries in the World Health Organization's AFRO region had met Millennium Development Goal #4 (MDG#4) to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Given the variability across the African region, a four-country study was undertaken to examine barriers and facilitators of child survival prior to 2015. Kenya was one of the countries selected for an in-depth case study due to its insufficient progress in reducing under-five mortality, with only a 28% reduction between 1990 and 2013. This paper presents indicators, national documents, and qualitative data describing the factors that have both facilitated and hindered Kenya's efforts in reducing child mortality. Key barriers identified in the data were widespread socioeconomic and geographic inequities in access and utilization of maternal, neonatal, and child health (MNCH) care. To reduce these inequities, Kenya implemented three major policies/strategies during the study period: removal of user fees, the Kenya Essential Package for Health, and the Community Health Strategy. This paper uses qualitative data and a policy review to explore the early impacts of these efforts. The removal of user fees has been unevenly implemented as patients still face hidden expenses. The Kenya Essential Package for Health has enabled construction and/or expansion of healthcare facilities in many areas, but facilities struggle to provide Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care (EmONC), neonatal care, and many essential medicines and commodities. The Community Health Strategy appears to have had the most impact, improving referrals from the community and provision of immunizations, malaria prevention, and Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV. However, the Community Health Strategy is limited by resources and thus also unevenly implemented in many areas. Although insufficient progress was made pre-2015, with additional resources and further scale-up of new policies and strategies Kenya can make further progress in child survival.

Improving access to child health services at the community level in Zambia: a country case study on progress in child survival, 2000-2013.

Reductions in under-five mortality in Africa have not been sufficient to meet the Millennium Development Goal #4 (MDG#4) of reducing under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Nevertheless, 12 African countries have met MDG#4. We undertook a four country study to examine barriers and facilitators of child survival prior to 2015, seeking to better understand variability in success across countries. The current analysis presents indicator, national document, and qualitative data from key informants and community women describing the factors that have enabled Zambia to successfully reduce under-five mortality over the last 15 years and achieve MDG#4. Results identified a Zambian national commitment to ongoing reform of national health strategic plans and efforts to ensure universal access to effective maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) interventions, creating an environment that has promoted child health. Zambia has also focused on bringing health services as close to the family as possible through specific community health strategies. This includes actively involving community health workers to provide health education, basic MNCH services, and linking women to health facilities, while supplementing community and health facility work with twice-yearly Child Health Weeks. External partners have contributed greatly to Zambia's MNCH services, and their relationships with the government are generally positive. As government funding increases to sustain MNCH services, national health strategies/plans are being used to specify how partners can fill gaps in resources. Zambia's continuing MNCH challenges include basic transportation, access-to-care, workforce shortages, and financing limitations. We highlight policies, programs, and implementation that facilitated reductions in under-five mortality in Zambia. These findings may inform how other countries in the African Region can increase progress in child survival in the post-MDG period.

Impact of a critical health workforce shortage on child health in Zimbabwe: a country case study on progress in child survival, 2000-2013.

Despite notable progress reducing global under-five mortality rates, insufficient progress in most sub-Saharan African nations has prevented the achievement of Millennium Development Goal four (MDG#4) to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Country-level assessments of factors underlying why some African countries have not been able to achieve MDG#4 have not been published. Zimbabwe was included in a four-country study examining barriers and facilitators of under-five survival between 2000 and 2013 due to its comparatively slow progress towards MDG#4. A review of national health policy and strategy documents and analysis of qualitative data identified Zimbabwe's critical shortage of health workers and diminished opportunities for professional training and education as an overarching challenge. Moreover, this insufficient health workforce severely limited the availability, quality, and utilization of life-saving health services for pregnant women and children during the study period. The impact of these challenges was most evident in Zimbabwe's persistently high neonatal mortality rate, and was likely compounded by policy gaps failing to authorize midwives to deliver life-saving interventions and to ensure health staff make home post-natal care visits soon after birth. Similarly, the lack of a national policy authorizing lower-level cadres of health workers to provide community-based treatment of pneumonia contributed to low coverage of this effective intervention and high child mortality. Zimbabwe has recently begun to address these challenges through comprehensive policies and strategies targeting improved recruitment and retention of experienced senior providers and by shifting responsibility of basic maternal, neonatal and child health services to lower-level cadres and community health workers that require less training, are geographically broadly distributed, and are more cost-effective, however the impact of these interventions could not be assessed within the scope and timeframe of the current study.

Factors associated with declining under-five mortality rates from 2000 to 2013: an ecological analysis of 46 African countries.

OBJECTIVE: Inadequate overall progress has been made towards the 4th Millennium Development Goal of reducing under-five mortality rates by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Progress has been variable across African countries. We examined health, economic and social factors potentially associated with reductions in under-five mortality (U5M) from 2000 to 2013. SETTING: Ecological analysis using publicly available data from the 46 nations within the WHO African Region. OUTCOME MEASURES: We assessed the annual rate of change (ARC) of 70 different factors and their association with the annual rate of reduction (ARR) of U5M rates using robust linear regression models. RESULTS: Most factors improved over the study period for most countries, with the largest increases seen for economic or technological development and external financing factors. The median (IQR) U5M ARR was 3.6% (2.8 to 5.1%). Only 4 of 70 factors demonstrated a strong and significant association with U5M ARRs, adjusting for potential confounders. Higher ARRs were associated with more rapidly increasing coverage of seeking treatment for acute respiratory infection (ß=0.22 (ie, a 1% increase in the ARC was associated with a 0.22% increase in ARR); 90% CI 0.09 to 0.35; p=0.01), increasing health expenditure relative to gross domestic product (ß=0.26; 95% CI 0.11 to 0.41; p=0.02), increasing fertility rate (ß=0.54; 95% CI 0.07 to 1.02; p=0.07) and decreasing maternal mortality ratio (ß=-0.47; 95% CI -0.69 to -0.24; p<0.01). The majority of factors showed no association or raised validity concerns due to missing data from a large number of countries. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in sociodemographic, maternal health and governance and financing factors were more likely associated with U5M ARR. These underscore the essential role of contextual factors facilitating child health interventions and services. Surveillance of these factors could help monitor which countries need additional support in reducing U5M.

Holding a country countdown to 2015 conference on Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) - the Zambian experience.

Initiatives such as the Country Countdown to 2015 Conference on Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have provided countries with high maternal and child deaths like Zambia a platform to assess progress, discuss challenges and share lessons learnt as a conduit for national commitment to reaching and attaining the MDGs four and five. This paper discusses and highlights the process of holding a successful country countdown conference and shares Zambia's experience with other countries planning to organise country countdown to 2015 Conferences on MDGs.

Ensuring quality in AFRINEST and SATT: clinical standardization and monitoring.

BACKGROUND: Three randomized open-label clinical trials [Simplified Antibiotic Therapy Trial (SATT) Bangladesh, SATT Pakistan and African Neonatal Sepsis Trial (AFRINEST)] were developed to test the equivalence of simplified antibiotic regimens compared with the standard regimen of 7 days of parenteral antibiotics. These trials were originally conceived and designed separately; subsequently, significant efforts were made to develop and implement a common protocol and approach. Previous articles in this supplement briefly describe the specific quality control methods used in the individual trials; this article presents additional information about the systematic approaches used to minimize threats to validity and ensure quality across the trials. METHODS: A critical component of quality control for AFRINEST and SATT was striving to eliminate variation in clinical assessments and decisions regarding eligibility, enrollment and treatment outcomes. Ensuring appropriate and consistent clinical judgment was accomplished through standardized approaches applied across the trials, including training, assessment of clinical skills and refresher training. Standardized monitoring procedures were also applied across the trials, including routine (day-to-day) internal monitoring of performance and adherence to protocols, systematic external monitoring by funding agencies and external monitoring by experienced, independent trial monitors. A group of independent experts (Technical Steering Committee/Technical Advisory Group) provided regular monitoring and technical oversight for the trials. CONCLUSIONS: Harmonization of AFRINEST and SATT have helped to ensure consistency and quality of implementation, both internally and across the trials as a whole, thereby minimizing potential threats to the validity of the trials' results.