Estimating survival scenarios in advanced or metastatic gastric and oesophageal adenocarcinoma: a systematic review of randomized-controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to summarize survival data from RCTs in patients with GO adenocarcinoma; estimate and explain worst-, typical-, and best-case-scenarios of survival time; and determine if simple multiples of median overall survival (mOS) could estimate these percentiles. METHODS: We systematically searched RCTs of systemic therapies for GO adenocarcinoma published 2000-2022. The following key percentiles were extracted from overall survival curves: 90th (worst-case), 75th (lower-typical), 25th (upper-typical), and 10th (best-case). We tested if these percentiles could be estimated by simple multiples of mOS: 0.25 of the median for the 90th percentile, 0.5 for the 75th, 2 for the 25th, and 3 for the 10th. RESULTS: We identified 44 trials (22,447 participants). For first line chemotherapy and immunotherapy combined (CI) trials (n = 3) worst-to-best case survival time ranged from 4 months to not reached, compared to 3-30 months for other trials (n = 27) and 1-23 months for subsequent lines (n = 14). Simple multiples of mOS accurately estimated the following survival percentiles: 90th (n = 3/3 trials), 75th (n = 3/3), and 25th (n = 2/3) in first line CI trials. In other first line trials, the mOS accurately estimated the 90th survival percentile in n = 22/27 trials, 75th percentile in n = 26/27, 25th percentile in 27/27 trials, and 10th percentile in 22/27 trials. Simple multiples of the mOS accurately predicted the 90th, 75th, 25th, and 10th survival percentiles in the majority of trials of second and subsequent lines apart from chemotherapy and immunotherapy only trials. CONCLUSION: We provide realistic, evidence-based prognostic information as scenarios for survival time which can inform clinical decision-making. Simple multiples of the mOS accurately estimated the percentiles for most groups.

Prognostic value of patient reported outcomes in advanced gastro-oesophageal cancer: a systematic review.

To summarise the prognostic value of patient-reported outcomes (PROs) in advanced gastro-oesophageal (GO) cancer. We systematically searched multiple databases using search terms related to advanced GO cancer, PRO and prognosis. Studies examining the relationship between baseline PROs and prognosis were included. Two reviewers independently screened articles and extracted data on study design, survival and associations between PROs and survival, in both univariable and multivariable analyses. QUIPS was used for quality assessment. From 3004 studies screened, seven studies were eligible, comprising PRO data from 2761 of 3408 (81%) participants. Median survival times ranged from 4.5 to 9.5 months. Among participants with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), physical functioning, social functioning and fatigue (QLQ-C30) were associated with overall survival (OS) in one univariable analysis. Among three studies of participants with adenocarcinoma, univariable analyses revealed associations between OS and global quality of life (QOL), physical functioning, role functioning and social functioning; two studies showed association with pain. There was an association between emotional functioning, fatigue, lack of mobility, lack of self-care, appetite loss/anorexia and OS in one study. One multivariable analysis among participants with oesophageal SCC showed physical and social functioning was associated with OS. Among participants with adenocarcinoma, multivariable analyses showed associations between OS and physical functioning/lack of mobility, appetite loss/anorexia (three studies), global QOL, role functioning/lack of self-care, pain (two studies) and social functioning (one study). Physical functioning, role functioning, social functioning, pain, anorexia and global QOL were associated with OS in advanced GO cancer.