Reducing air pollution does not necessarily reduce related adults' mortality burden: Variations in 177 countries with different economic levels.

Prolonged exposure to PM2.5 is associated with increased mortality. However, reducing air pollution concentrations does not necessarily reduce the related burden of deaths. Here, we aim to estimate the variations in PM2.5-related mortality due to contributions from key factors - PM2.5 concentration, population exposure, and healthcare levels - for 177 countries from 2000 to 2018 at the 1-km grid scale according to the Global Mortality Exposure Model (GEMM) model. We find that global reductions in PM2.5-related deaths mainly come from high and upper-middle income countries, where lowered air pollutant concentration and better healthcare can offset mortality burdens caused by increasing exposed populations. Changes in population exposure to PM2.5 contribute the most (54 %) to change in global related deaths over the examined period, followed by changes in healthcare (-42 %) and pollution concentrations (4 %). The impacts vary across countries and regions within them due to other drivers, which are significantly influenced by development status. Policies aiming at reducing PM2.5 associated health risks need to account for country-specific balances of these key socioeconomic drivers.

Bridging Differences in Cohort Analyses of the Relationship between Secondhand Smoke Exposure during Pregnancy and Birth Weight: The Transportability Framework in the ECHO Program.

BACKGROUND: Estimates for the effects of environmental exposures on health outcomes, including secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure, often present considerable variability across studies. Knowledge of the reasons behind these differences can aid our understanding of effects in specific populations as well as inform practices of combining data from multiple studies. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the presence of effect modification by measured sociodemographic characteristics on the effect of SHS exposure during pregnancy on birth weights that may drive differences observed across cohorts. We also aimed to quantify the extent to which differences in the cohort mean effects observed across cohorts in the Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) consortium are due to differing distributions of these characteristics. METHODS: We assessed the presence of effect modification and transportability of effect estimates across five ECHO cohorts in a total of 6,771 mother-offspring dyads. We assessed the presence of effect modification via gradient boosting of regression trees based on the H-statistic. We estimated individual cohort effects using linear models and targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE). We then estimated transported effects from one cohort to each of the remaining cohorts using a robust nonparametric estimation approach relying on TMLE estimators and compared them to the original effect estimates for these cohorts. RESULTS: Observed effect estimates varied across the five cohorts, ranging from significantly lower birth weight associated with exposure [-167.3g; 95% confidence interval (CI): -270.4, -64.1] to higher birth weight with wide CIs, including the null (42.4g; 95% CI: -15.0, 99.8). Transported effect estimates only minimally explained differences in the point estimates for two out of the four cohort pairs. DISCUSSION: Our findings of weak to moderate evidence of effect modification and transportability indicate that unmeasured individual-level and contextual factors and sources of bias may be responsible for differences in the effect estimates observed across ECHO cohorts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13961.

Diesel exhaust and respiratory dust exposure in miners and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality in DEMS II.

BACKGROUND: Diesel exhaust and respirable dust exposures in the mining industry have not been studied in depth with respect to non-malignant respiratory disease including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), with most available evidence coming from other settings. OBJECTIVES: To assess the relationship between occupational diesel exhaust and respirable dust exposures and COPD mortality, while addressing issues of survivor bias in exposed miners. METHODS: The study population consisted of 11,817 male workers from the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study II, followed from 1947 to 2015, with 279 observed COPD deaths. We fit Cox proportional hazards models for the relationship between respirable elemental carbon (REC) and respirable dust (RD) exposure and COPD mortality. To address healthy worker survivor bias, we leveraged the parametric g-formula to assess effects of hypothetical interventions on both exposures. RESULTS: Cox models yielded elevated estimates for the associations between average intensity of REC and RD and COPD mortality, with hazard ratios (HR) corresponding to an interquartile range width increase in exposure of 1.46 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.12, 1.91) and 1.20 (95 % CI: 0.96, 1.49), respectively for each exposure. HRs for cumulative exposures were negative for both REC and RD. Based on results from the parametric g-formula, the risk ratio (RR) for COPD mortality comparing risk under an intervention eliminating REC to the observed risk was 0.85 (95 % CI: 0.55, 1.06), equivalent to an attributable risk of 15 %. The corresponding RR comparing risk under an intervention eliminating RD to the observed risk was 0.93 (95 % CI: 0.56, 1.31). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings, based on data from a cohort of nonmetal miners, are suggestive of an increased risk of COPD mortality associated with REC and RD, as well as evidence of survivor bias in this population leading to negative associations between cumulative exposures and COPD mortality in traditional regression analysis.

A Bayesian joint model for compositional mediation effect selection in microbiome data.

Analyzing multivariate count data generated by high-throughput sequencing technology in microbiome research studies is challenging due to the high-dimensional and compositional structure of the data and overdispersion. In practice, researchers are often interested in investigating how the microbiome may mediate the relation between an assigned treatment and an observed phenotypic response. Existing approaches designed for compositional mediation analysis are unable to simultaneously determine the presence of direct effects, relative indirect effects, and overall indirect effects, while quantifying their uncertainty. We propose a formulation of a Bayesian joint model for compositional data that allows for the identification, estimation, and uncertainty quantification of various causal estimands in high-dimensional mediation analysis. We conduct simulation studies and compare our method's mediation effects selection performance with existing methods. Finally, we apply our method to a benchmark data set investigating the sub-therapeutic antibiotic treatment effect on body weight in early-life mice.

Associations between Prenatal and Postnatal Exposure to Cannabis with Cognition and Behavior at Age 5 Years: The Healthy Start Study.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to cannabis may influence childhood cognition and behavior, but the epidemiologic evidence is mixed. Even less is known about the potential impact of secondhand exposure to cannabis during early childhood. OBJECTIVE: This study sought to assess whether prenatal and/or postnatal exposure to cannabis was associated with childhood cognition and behavior. STUDY DESIGN: This sub-study included a convenience sample of 81 mother-child pairs from a Colorado-based cohort. Seven common cannabinoids (including delta 9-tetrahydrocannabinol (Δ9-THC) and cannabidiol (CBD)) and their metabolites were measured in maternal urine collected mid-gestation and child urine collected at age 5 years. Prenatal and postnatal exposure to cannabis was dichotomized as exposed (detection of any cannabinoid) and not exposed. Generalized linear models examined the associations between prenatal or postnatal exposure to cannabis with the NIH Toolbox and Child Behavior Checklist T-scores at age 5 years. RESULTS: In this study, 7% (n = 6) of the children had prenatal exposure to cannabis and 12% (n = 10) had postnatal exposure to cannabis, with two children experiencing this exposure at both time points. The most common cannabinoid detected in pregnancy was Δ9-THC, whereas the most common cannabinoid detected in childhood was CBD. Postnatal exposure to cannabis was associated with more aggressive behavior (ß: 3.2; 95% CI: 0.5, 5.9), attention deficit/hyperactivity problems (ß: 8.0; 95% CI: 2.2, 13.7), and oppositional/defiant behaviors (ß: 3.2; 95% CI: 0.2, 6.3), as well as less cognitive flexibility (ß: -15.6; 95% CI: -30.0, -1.2) and weaker receptive language (ß: -9.7; 95% CI: -19.2, -0.3). By contrast, prenatal exposure to cannabis was associated with fewer internalizing behaviors (mean difference: -10.2; 95% CI: -20.3, -0.2) and fewer somatic complaints (mean difference: -5.2, 95% CI: -9.8, -0.6). CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that postnatal exposure to cannabis is associated with more behavioral and cognitive problems among 5-year-old children, independent of prenatal and postnatal exposure to tobacco. The potential risks of cannabis use (including smoking and vaping) during pregnancy and around young children should be more widely communicated to parents.

Associations between prenatal and early-life air pollution exposure and lung function in young children: Exploring influential windows of exposure on lung development.

BACKGROUND: Evidence in the literature suggests that air pollution exposures experienced prenatally and early in life can be detrimental to normal lung development, however the specific timing of critical windows during development is not fully understood. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated air pollution exposures during the prenatal and early-life period in association with lung function at ages 6-9, in an effort to identify potentially influential windows of exposure for lung development. METHODS: Our study population consisted of 222 children aged 6-9 from the Fresno-Clovis metro area in California with spirometry data collected between May 2015 and May 2017. We used distributed-lag non-linear models to flexibly model the exposure-lag-response for monthly average exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) during the prenatal months and first three years of life in association with forced vital capacity (FVC), and forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1), adjusted for covariates. RESULTS: PM2.5 exposure during the prenatal period and the first 3-years of life was associated with lower FVC and FEV1 assessed at ages 6-9. Specifically, an increase from the 5th percentile of the observed monthly average exposure (7.55 µg/m3) to the median observed exposure (12.69 µg/m3) for the duration of the window was associated with 0.42 L lower FVC (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.82, -0.03) and 0.38 L lower FEV1 (95% CI: -0.75, -0.02). The shape of the lag-response indicated that the second half of pregnancy may be a particularly influential window of exposure. Associations for ozone were not as strong and typically CIs included the null. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that prenatal and early-life exposures to PM2.5 are associated with decreased lung function later in childhood. Exposures during the latter months of pregnancy may be especially influential.

The Impact of Job Loss on Self-injury Mortality in a Cohort of Autoworkers: Application of a Novel Causal Approach.

BACKGROUND: Recent increases in national rates of suicide and fatal overdose have been linked to a deterioration of economic and social stability. The American auto industry experienced comparable pressures beginning in the 1980s with the emergence of a competitive global market. METHODS: Using the United Autoworkers-General Motors (GM) cohort as a case study, we examine the impact of employment loss on these self-injury mortality events. For 29,538 autoworkers employed on or after 1 January 1970, we apply incremental propensity score interventions, a novel causal inference approach, to examine how proportional shifts in the odds of leaving active GM employment affect the cumulative incidence of self-injury mortality. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence of self-injury mortality was 0.87% (255 cases) at the observed odds of leaving active GM employment (δ = 1) over a 45-year period. A 10% decrease in the odds of leaving active GM employment (δ = 0.9) results in an estimated 8% drop in self-injury mortality (234 cases) while a 10% increase (δ = 1.1) results in a 19% increase in self-injury mortality (303 cases). CONCLUSIONS: These results are consistent with the hypothesis that leaving active employment at GM increases the risk of death due to suicide or drug overdose.

Native American Ancestry and Air Pollution Interact to Impact Bronchodilator Response in Puerto Rican Children with Asthma.

Objective: Asthma is the most common chronic disease in children. Short-acting bronchodilator medications are the most commonly prescribed asthma treatment worldwide, regardless of disease severity. Puerto Rican children display the highest asthma morbidity and mortality of any US population. Alarmingly, Puerto Rican children with asthma display poor bronchodilator drug response (BDR). Reduced BDR may explain, in part, the increased asthma morbidity and mortality observed in Puerto Rican children with asthma. Gene-environment interactions may explain a portion of the heritability of BDR. We aimed to identify gene-environment interactions associated with BDR in Puerto Rican children with asthma. Setting: Genetic, environmental, and psycho-social data from the Genes-environments and Admixture in Latino Americans (GALA II) case-control study. Participants: Our discovery dataset consisted of 658 Puerto Rican children with asthma; our replication dataset consisted of 514 Mexican American children with asthma. Main Outcome Measures: We assessed the association of pairwise interaction models with BDR using ViSEN (Visualization of Statistical Epistasis Networks). Results: We identified a non-linear interaction between Native American genetic ancestry and air pollution significantly associated with BDR in Puerto Rican children with asthma. This interaction was robust to adjustment for age and sex but was not significantly associated with BDR in our replication population. Conclusions: Decreased Native American ancestry coupled with increased air pollution exposure was associated with increased BDR in Puerto Rican children with asthma. Our study acknowledges BDR's phenotypic complexity, and emphasizes the importance of integrating social, environmental, and biological data to further our understanding of complex disease.

Traffic-related air pollution is associated with glucose dysregulation, blood pressure, and oxidative stress in children.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome increases the risk of cardiovascular disease in adults. Antecedents likely begin in childhood and whether childhood exposure to air pollution plays a contributory role is not well understood. OBJECTIVES: To assess whether children's exposure to air pollution is associated with markers of risk for metabolic syndrome and oxidative stress, a hypothesized mediator of air pollution-related health effects. METHODS: We studied 299 children (ages 6-8) living in the Fresno, CA area. At a study center visit, questionnaire and biomarker data were collected. Outcomes included hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), urinary 8-isoprostane, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and BMI. Individual-level exposure estimates for a set of four pollutants that are constituents of traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) - the sum of 4-, 5-, and 6-ring polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon compounds (PAH456), NO2, elemental carbon, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) - were modeled at the primary residential location for 1-day lag, and 1-week, 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year averages prior to each participant's visit date. Generalized additive models were used to estimate associations between each air pollutant exposure and outcome. RESULTS: The study population was 53% male, 80% Latinx, 11% Black and largely low-income (6% were White and 3% were Asian/Pacific Islander). HbA1c percentage was associated with longer-term increases in TRAP; for example a 4.42 ng/m3 increase in 6-month average PAH456 was associated with a 0.07% increase (95% CI: 0.01, 0.14) and a 3.62 µg/m3 increase in 6-month average PM2.5 was associated with a 0.06% increase (95% CI: 0.01, 0.10). The influence of air pollutants on blood pressure was strongest at 3 months; for example, a 6.2 ppb increase in 3-month average NO2 was associated with a 9.4 mmHg increase in SBP (95% CI: 2.8, 15.9). TRAP concentrations were not significantly associated with anthropometric or adipokine measures. Short-term TRAP exposure averages were significantly associated with creatinine-adjusted urinary 8-isoprostane. DISCUSSION: Our results suggest that both short- and longer-term estimated individual-level outdoor residential exposures to several traffic-related air pollutants, including ambient PAHs, are associated with biomarkers of risk for metabolic syndrome and oxidative stress in children.

Associations of Residential Brownness and Greenness with Fasting Glucose in Young Healthy Adults Living in the Desert.

Evolutionary psychology theories propose that contact with green, natural environments may benefit physical health, but little comparable evidence exists for brown, natural environments, such as the desert. In this study, we examined the association between "brownness" and "greenness" with fasting glucose among young residents of El Paso, Texas. We defined brownness as the surface not covered by vegetation or impervious land within Euclidian buffers around participants' homes. Fasting glucose along with demographic and behavioral data were obtained from the Nurse Engagement and Wellness Study (n = 517). We found that residential proximity to brownness was not associated with fasting glucose when modeled independently. In contrast, we found that residential greenness was associated with decreased levels of fasting glucose, despite the relatively low levels of greenness within the predominantly desert environment of El Paso. A difference between the top and bottom greenness exposure quartiles within a 250 m buffer was associated with a 3.5 mg/dL decrease in fasting glucose levels (95% confidence interval: -6.2, -0.8). Our results suggest that within the understudied context of the desert, green vegetation may be health promoting to a degree that is similar to other, non-desert locations in the world that have higher baselines levels of green.

Educational note: addressing special cases of bias that frequently occur in perinatal epidemiology.

The epidemiologic study of pregnancy and birth outcomes may be hindered by several unique and challenging issues. Pregnancy is a time-limited period in which severe cohort attrition takes place between conception and birth and adverse outcomes are complex and multi-factorial. Biases span those familiar to epidemiologists: selection, confounding and information biases. Specific challenges include conditioning on potential intermediates, how to treat race/ethnicity, and influential windows of prolonged, seasonal and potentially time-varying exposures. Researchers studying perinatal outcomes should be cognizant of the potential pitfalls due to these factors and address their implications with respect to formulating questions of interest, choice of an appropriate analysis approach and interpretations of findings given assumptions. In this article, we catalogue some of the more important potential sources of bias in perinatal epidemiology that have more recently gained attention in the literature, provide the epidemiologic context behind each issue and propose practices for dealing with each issue to the extent possible.

Comment on "A global-scale ecological niche model to predict SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection rate", author Coro.

In this letter we present comments on the article "A global-scale ecological niche model to predict SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus" by Coro published in 2020.

Improved asthma outcomes observed in the vicinity of coal power plant retirement, retrofit, and conversion to natural gas.

Coal-fired power plants release substantial air pollution, including over 60% of U.S. sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions in 2014. Such air pollution may exacerbate asthma however direct studies of health impacts linked to power plant air pollution are rare. Here, we take advantage of a natural experiment in Louisville, Kentucky, where one coal-fired power plant retired and converted to natural gas, and three others installed SO2 emission control systems between 2013 and 2016. Dispersion modeling indicated exposure to SO2 emissions from these power plants decreased after the energy transitions. We used several analysis strategies, including difference-in-differences, first-difference, and interrupted time-series modeling to show that the emissions control installations and plant retirements were associated with reduced asthma disease burden related to ZIP code-level hospitalizations and emergency room visits, and individual-level medication use as measured by digital medication sensors.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality: The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS).

BACKGROUND: Miners are highly exposed to diesel exhaust emissions from powered equipment. Although biologically plausible, there is little evidence based on quantitative exposure assessment, that long-term diesel exposure increases risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). To fill this gap, we examined COPD mortality and diesel exhaust exposure in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS). METHODS: We fit Cox models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for COPD mortality and cumulative exposure (µg/m3-years) to respirable elemental carbon (REC), a key metric for diesel exhaust exposure. Separate models were fit for ever-underground and surface-only miners to allow for effect modification. Exposure was lagged by 0, 10 and 15 years. In a secondary analysis, we addressed the healthy worker survivor effect by applying the parametric g-formula to handle time-varying confounding affected by prior exposure among ever-underground workers. RESULTS: Based on 140 cases, the HRs for COPD mortality increased as categories of lagged REC exposure increased for all workers. Among surface-only workers, those in the middle exposure category (0 lag) had a significantly elevated hazard ratio of 2.34 (95% CI: 1.11-4.61) relative to those in the lowest category. Among the ever-underground, that ratio was 1.35, with wide confidence intervals. Using the g-formula, we estimated that the lifetime cumulative risk of COPD mortality would have been reduced from the observed 5.0%-3.1% under a hypothetical intervention where all ever-underground workers were always unexposed. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest long term exposure to diesel exhaust may increase risk of COPD in miners, though power was limited.

Accelerated lung function decline in an aluminium manufacturing industry cohort exposed to PM2.5: an application of the parametric g-formula.

OBJECTIVE: Occupational dust exposure has been associated with accelerated lung function decline, which in turn is associated with overall morbidity and mortality. In the current study, we assess potential benefits on lung function of hypothetical interventions that would reduce occupational exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) while adjusting for the healthy worker survivor effect. METHODS: Analyses were performed in a cohort of 6485 hourly male workers in an aluminium manufacturing company in the USA, followed between 1996 and 2013. We used the parametric g-formula to assess lung function decline over time under hypothetical interventions while also addressing time-varying confounding by underlying health status, using a composite risk score based on health insurance claims. RESULTS: A counterfactual scenario envisioning a limit on exposure equivalent to the 10th percentile of the observed exposure distribution of 0.05 mg/m3 was associated with an improvement in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) equivalent to 37.6 mL (95% CI 13.6 to 61.6) after 10 years of follow-up when compared with the observed. Assuming a linear decrease and (from NHANES reference values), a 20 mL decrease per year for a 1.8 m-tall man as they age, this 37.6 mL FEV1 loss over 10 years associated with observed exposure would translate to approximately a 19% increase to the already expected loss per year from age alone. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that occupational PM2.5 exposure in the aluminium industry accelerates lung function decline over age. Reduction in exposure may mitigate accelerated loss of lung function over time in the industry.

In utero tobacco smoke exposure, DNA methylation, and asthma in Latino children.

BACKGROUND: Maternal smoking during pregnancy is a risk factor for chronic disease later in life and has been associated with variability of DNA methylation at specific cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) loci. We assessed the role of DNA methylation as a potential mediator of adverse effects of in utero tobacco smoke exposures on asthma outcomes in Latino children from the US mainland and Puerto Rico. METHODS: Relationships between self-reported exposure and DNA methylation at CpG loci previously reported to be associated with maternal smoking were assessed in a subsample consisting of 572 children aged 8-21 years (310 cases with asthma, 262 healthy controls), sampled from a larger asthma case-control study. Subsequently, we assessed associations between top loci and asthma-related outcomes, followed by mediation analysis for loci for which associations with outcomes were observed. RESULTS: Self-reported maternal smoking was associated with a -1.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) = -2.4%, -0.6%) lower methylation at CpG locus cg05575921 on the AHRR gene; a 1% increase in DNA methylation at the same locus resulted in an odds ratio (OR) of 0.90 (95% CI = 0.83, 0.96) for the odds of asthma. The OR for the indirect effect of maternal smoking on asthma mediated through methylation at the cg05575921 locus was 1.18 (95% CI = 1.07, 1.68), compared to the OR for the total effect of exposure in the parent study of 1.48 (95% CI = 1.03, 2.11). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest potential mediation by DNA methylation in the association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and asthma status.

Acute effects of air pollution on mortality: A 17-year analysis in Kuwait.

BACKGROUND: The health burden from exposure to air pollution has been studied in many parts of the world. However, there is limited research on the health effects of air quality in arid areas where sand dust is the primary particulate pollution source. OBJECTIVE: Study the risk of mortality from exposure to poor air quality days in Kuwait. METHODS: We conducted a time-series analysis using daily visibility as a measure of particulate pollution and non-accidental total mortality from January 2000 through December 2016. A generalized additive Poisson model was used adjusting for time trends, day of week, and temperature. Low visibility (yes/no), defined as visibility lower than the 25th percentile, was used as an indicator of poor air quality days. Dust storm events were also examined. Finally, we examined these associations after stratifying by gender, age group, and nationality (Kuwaitis/non-Kuwaitis). RESULTS: There were 73,748 deaths from natural causes in Kuwait during the study period. The rate ratio comparing the mortality rate on low visibility days to high visibility days was 1.01 (95% CI: 0.99-1.03). Similar estimates were observed for dust storms (1.02, 95% CI: 1.00-1.04). Higher and statistically significant estimates were observed among non-Kuwaiti men and non-Kuwaiti adolescents and adults. CONCLUSION: We observed a higher risk of mortality during days with poor air quality in Kuwait from 2000 through 2016.