Comparison of definitions of early knee osteoarthritis for likelihood of progression at 2-year and 5-year follow-up: the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study.

BACKGROUND: Preventing worsening osteoarthritis (OA) in persons with early OA is a major treatment goal. We evaluated if different early OA definitions yielded enough cases of worsening OA within 2-5 years to make trial testing treatments feasible. METHODS: We assessed different definitions of early OA using data from Multicenter Osteoarthritis (MOST) Study participants who were followed up longitudinally. We defined early OA as having at least minimal knee pain (WOMAC (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index) pain ≥3/20) with different levels of pre-radiographic OA. For MRI, we required knee pain and used MRI definitions with combinations of cartilage damage, osteophytes, bone marrow lesions and meniscus damage.The primary outcome, worsening OA at 2 or 5 years, combined structural (Kellgren and Lawrence grade ≥2 with joint space narrowing ≥1) and symptom (WOMAC pain ≥6 with increase ≥2 from baseline) outcomes. We also examined structural and symptom outcomes separately. RESULTS: For worsening OA at 2 years, we included 750 participants (mean age 65 years, 60% female, 90% white, mean body mass index 29.2 kg/m2). Fewer than 10% of early OA knees had the combined outcome at 2 or 5 years. At 2 years, for several early OA definitions, roughly 20% of knees had either structural or symptom worsening outcomes. Two-year trials of either, but not both, outcomes would need to recruit over 1200 patients. CONCLUSION: Most knees with early OA are stable and do not progress. Some painful knees experience worse pain but not structural progression and vice versa. Trial testing treatments to prevent OA illness or disease will be challenging.

Clinical and imaging findings associated with preservation of knee joint health over 8 years in individuals aged 65 and over: data from the OAI.

OBJECTIVE: While risk factors for osteoarthritis (OA) are well known, it is not well understood why certain individuals maintain high mobility and joint health throughout their life while others demonstrate OA at older ages. The purpose of this study was to assess which demographic, clinical and MRI quantitative and semi-quantitative factors are associated with preserving healthy knees in older individuals. METHODS: This study analyzed data from the OA Initiative (OAI) cohort of individuals at the age of 65 years or above. Participants without OA at baseline (BL) (Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) ≤ 1) were followed and classified as incident cases (KL ≥ 2 during follow-up; n = 115) and as non-incident (KL ≤ 1 over 96-month; n = 391). Associations between the predictor-variables sex, age, BMI, race, clinical scoring systems, T2 relaxation times and Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging-Score (WORMS) readings at BL and the preservation of healthy knees (KL ≤ 1) during a 96-month follow-up period were assessed using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Obesity and presence of pain showed a significant inverse association with maintaining radiographically normal joints in patients aged 65 and above. T2 relaxation times of the lateral femur and tibia as well as the medial femur were also significantly associated with maintaining radiographically normal knee joints. Additionally, absence of lesions of the lateral meniscus and absence of cartilage lesions in the medial and patellofemoral compartments were significantly associated with maintaining healthy knee joints. CONCLUSION: Overall, this study provides protective clinical parameters as well as quantitative and semi-quantitative MR-imaging parameters associated with maintaining radiographically normal knee joints in an older population over 8 years.

Associations of pain sensitivity and conditioned pain modulation with physical activity: findings from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST).

OBJECTIVE: Individuals with chronic pain due to knee osteoarthritis (OA) are insufficiently physically active, and alterations of facilitatory and inhibitory nociceptive signaling are common in this population. Our objective was to examine the association of these alterations in nociceptive signaling with objective accelerometer-based measures of physical activity in a large observational cohort. DESIGN: We used data from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study. Measures of peripheral and central pain sensitivity included pressure pain threshold at the knee and mechanical temporal summation at the wrist, respectively. The presence of descending pain inhibition was assessed by conditioned pain modulation (CPM). Physical activity was quantitatively assessed over 7 days using a lower back-worn activity monitor. Summary metrics included steps/day, activity intensity, and sedentary time. Linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the association of pain sensitivity and the presence of descending pain inhibition with physical activity measures. RESULTS: Data from 1873 participants was analyzed (55.9% female, age = 62.8 ± 10.0 years). People having greater peripheral and central sensitivity showed lower step counts. CPM was not significantly related to any of the physical activity measures, and none of the exposures were significantly related to sedentary time. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, greater peripheral and central sensitivity were associated with reduced levels of objectively-assessed daily step counts. Further research may investigate ways to modify or treat heightened pain sensitivity as a means to increase physical activity in older adults with knee OA.

Bicycling over a Lifetime Is Associated with Less Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis: Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between a history of bicycling and symptomatic and structural outcomes of knee osteoarthritis (OA), the most common form of arthritis. METHODS: This was a retrospective, cross-sectional study within the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), where we investigated OAI participants with complete data on bicycling, knee pain, and radiographic evidence of knee OA. We used a self-administered questionnaire at the 96-month OAI visit to identify participation in bicycling during four time periods throughout a participant's lifetime (ages 12-18, 19-34, 35-49, and >50 yr). Using logistic regression, we evaluated the influence of prior bicycling status (any history, history for each time period, number of periods cycling) on three outcomes at the 48-month OAI visit: frequent knee pain, radiographic OA (ROA), and symptomatic radiographic OA (SOA), adjusting for age and gender. RESULTS: A total of 2607 participants were included: 44.2% were male, mean age was 64.3 (SD, 9.0) yr, and body mass index was 28.5 (SD, 4.9) kg·m -2 . The adjusted risk ratios for the outcome of frequent knee pain, ROA, and SOA among those who reported any history of bicycling compared with non-bicyclers were 0.83 (0.73-0.92), 0.91 (0.85-0.98), and 0.79 (0.68-0.90), respectively. We observed a dose-response among those who participated in bicycling during more time periods. CONCLUSIONS: People who participated in bicycling had a lower prevalence of frequent knee pain, ROA, and SOA. The benefit appeared cumulative. This study indicates that bicycling may be favorable to knee health and should be encouraged.

Gardening/yardwork in people with knee osteoarthritis is not associated with symptom or structural progression over 48 months: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relationship of gardening/yardwork with symptomatic and structural progression in those with pre-existing radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), an observational study designed to evaluate potential and known biomarkers and risk factors of knee OA. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study nested within the OAI, including participants ≥ 50 years old with radiographic OA in at least one knee at the time of OAI enrollment. A participant reported the level of gardening/yardwork activity in a self-administered survey. Logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the association of gardening/yardwork on new frequent knee pain, Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) worsening, medial joint space narrowing (JSN) worsening, and improved frequent knee pain. RESULTS: Of 1808 knees (1203 participants), over 60% of knees had KL grade = 2, 65% had medial JSN, and slightly more than a third had frequent knee symptoms. Gardeners/yardworkers and non-gardners/yardworkers had similar "worsening" outcomes for new knee pain (29% vs. 29%), KL worsening (19% vs. 18%), and medial JSN (23% vs. 24%). The adjusted odds ratio (OR) for the "worsening" outcomes of new knee pain, KL worsening, and medial JSN worsening were 1.0 (0.7-1.3), 1.0 (0.8-1.3), and 1.1 (0.9-1.4), respectively. The gardeners/yardworkers had an adjusted OR of 1.2 (0.9-1.7) for improved knee pain compared with non-gardners/yardworkers. CONCLUSION: Gardening/yardwork is not associated with knee OA progression and should not be discouraged in those with knee OA. Key Points • Gardening/yardwork is not associated with knee OA symptomatic or structural progression. • Gardening/yardwork should not be discouraged in people with knee OA.

Gait Alterations and Association With Worsening Knee Pain and Physical Function: A Machine Learning Approach With Wearable Sensors in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to identify gait alterations related to worsening knee pain and worsening physical function, using machine learning approaches applied to wearable sensor-derived data from a large observational cohort. METHODS: Participants in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) completed a 20-m walk test wearing inertial sensors on their lower back and ankles. Parameters describing spatiotemporal features of gait were extracted from these data. We used an ensemble machine learning technique ("super learning") to optimally discriminate between those with and without worsening physical function and, separately, those with and without worsening pain over two years. We then used log-binomial regression to evaluate associations of the top 10 influential variables selected with super learning with each outcome. We also assessed whether the relation of altered gait with worsening function was mediated by changes in pain. RESULTS: Of 2,324 participants, 29% and 24% had worsening knee pain and function over two years, respectively. From the super learner, several gait parameters were found to be influential for worsening pain and for worsening function. After adjusting for confounders, greater gait asymmetry, longer average step length, and lower dominant frequency were associated with worsening pain, and lower cadence was associated with worsening function. Worsening pain partially mediated the association of cadence with function. CONCLUSION: We identified gait alterations associated with worsening knee pain and those associated with worsening physical function. These alterations could be assessed with wearable sensors in clinical settings. Further research should determine whether they might be therapeutic targets to prevent worsening pain and worsening function.

Essential Fatty Acids and Osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Inflammation worsens joint destruction in osteoarthritis (OA) and aggravates pain. Although n-3 fatty acids reduce inflammation, different n-3 fatty acids have different effects on inflammation and clinical outcomes, with eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) having the strongest effect. We examined whether specific essential fatty acid levels affected the development of OA. METHODS: We studied participants from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) at risk of developing knee OA. As part of MOST, participants were asked repeatedly about knee pain, and knee radiographs and magnetic resonance images (MRIs) were obtained. Using baseline fasting samples, we analyzed serum fatty acids with standard assays. After excluding participants with baseline OA, we defined two sets of cases based on their status through 60 months' follow-up: those developing incident radiographic OA and those developing incident symptomatic OA (knee pain and radiographic OA). Controls did not develop these outcomes. Additionally, we examined worsening of MRI cartilage damage and synovitis and worsening knee pain and evaluated the number of hand joints affected by nodules. In regression models, we tested the association of each OA outcome with levels of specific n-3 and n-6 fatty acids, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, education, physical activity, race, baseline pain, smoking, statin use, and depressive symptoms. RESULTS: We studied 363 cases with incident symptomatic knee OA and 295 with incident radiographic knee OA. The mean age was 62 years (59% women). We found no associations of specific n-3 fatty acid levels, including EPA, or of n-6 fatty acid levels with incident OA (eg, for incident symptomatic knee OA, the odds ratio per SD increase in EPA was 1.0 [95% confidence interval 0.87-1.17]). Results for other OA outcomes also failed to suggest a protective effect of specific n-3 fatty acids with OA outcomes. CONCLUSION: We found no association of serum levels of EPA or of other specific n-3 fatty acids or n-6 fatty acids with risk of incident knee OA or other OA outcomes.

Assessing the association of epigenetic age acceleration with osteoarthritis in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST).

PURPOSE: Advancing age is one of the strongest risk factors for osteoarthritis (OA). DNA methylation-based measures of epigenetic age acceleration may provide insights into mechanisms underlying OA. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study in a subset of 671 participants ages 45-69 years with no or mild radiographic knee OA. DNA methylation was assessed with the Illumina Infinium MethylationEPIC 850K array. We calculated predicted epigenetic age according to Hannum, Horvath, PhenoAge, and GrimAge epigenetic clocks, then regressed epigenetic age on chronological age to obtain the residuals. Associations between the residuals and knee, hand, and multi-joint OA were assessed using logistic regression, adjusted for chronological age, sex, clinical site, smoking status, and race. RESULTS: Twenty-three percent met criteria for radiographic hand OA, 25% met criteria for radiographic knee OA, and 8% met criteria for multi-joint OA. Mean chronological age (SD) was 58.4 (6.7) years. Mean predicted epigenetic age (SD) according to Horvath, Hannum, PhenoAge, and GrimAge epigenetic clocks was 64.9 (6.4), 68.6 (5.9), 50.5 (7.7), and 67.0 (6.2), respectively. Horvath epigenetic age acceleration was not associated with an increased odds of hand OA, odds ratio (95% confidence intervals) = 1.03 (0.99-1.08), with similar findings for knee and multi-joint OA. We found similar magnitudes of associations for Hannum epigenetic age, PhenoAge, and GrimAge acceleration compared to Horvath epigenetic age acceleration. CONCLUSIONS: Epigenetic age acceleration as measured by various well-validated epigenetic clocks based on DNA methylation was not associated with increased risk of knee, hand, or multi-joint OA independent of chronological age.

Thigh muscle and fat volumes are associated with knee cartilage abnormalities and bone marrow edema-like lesions: data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations of thigh muscle and fat volumes with structural abnormalities on MRI related to knee osteoarthritis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: MRI studies of the thighs and knees from 100 individuals were randomly selected from the Osteoarthritis Initiative Cohort. Whole Organ MR Scoring (WORMS) and effusion-synovitis scoring were performed in all knee MRI. Thigh muscles, intermuscular fat, and subcutaneous fat were manually segmented in 15 consecutive MR thigh images. Radiographic Kellgren-Lawrence grades (KLG) were also obtained in all knee radiographs. Independent t-tests were used to investigate the associations between thigh muscle and fat volumes, and sex. Mixed-effects analyses were obtained to investigate the associations between thigh muscle and fat volumes, KLG, WOMAC pain score, cartilage and bone marrow WORMS, as well as effusion-synovitis scores. RESULTS: Women had higher subcutaneous fat volume than men (616.82 vs. 229.13 cm3, p < 0.01) and men had higher muscle volumes than women (p < 0.01). Quadriceps (coef = -2.15, p = 0.01) and vastus medialis (coef = -1.84, p = 0.03) volumes were negatively associated with the WORMS cartilage scores. Intermuscular fat volume (coef = 0.48, p = 0.01) was positively associated with WORMS bone marrow edema-like lesion (BMEL) scores. The quadriceps (coef = -0.99, p < 0.01) and hamstring (coef = -0.59, p = 0.01) volumes were negatively associated with WORMS BMEL scores. No evidence of an association was found between thigh muscle and fat volumes with KLG and effusion-synovitis grading (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Increased quadriceps and hamstring volumes were negatively associated with cartilage lesion and BMEL scores while no evidence of an association was found between thigh muscle and fat volumes, and radiographic knee osteoarthritis or effusion-synovitis grading.

Strength Training Is Associated With Less Knee Osteoarthritis: Data From the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate the relationship of a history of strength training with symptomatic and structural outcomes of knee osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: This study was a retrospective, cross-sectional study within the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), a multicenter prospective longitudinal observational study. Data were collected at four OAI clinical sites: Memorial Hospital of Rhode Island, the Ohio State University, the University of Pittsburgh, and the University of Maryland/Johns Hopkins. The study included 2,607 participants with complete data on strength training, knee pain, and radiographic evidence of knee OA (male, 44.2%; mean ± SD age 64.3 ± 9.0 years; mean ± SD body mass index 28.5 ± 4.9 kg/m2 ). We used a self-administered questionnaire at the 96-month OAI visit to evaluate the exposure of strength training participation during four time periods throughout a participant's lifetime (ages 12-18, 19-34, 35-49, and ≥50 years old). The outcomes (dependent variables) were radiographic OA (ROA), symptomatic radiographic OA (SOA), and frequent knee pain. RESULTS: The fully adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for frequent knee pain, ROA, and SOA among those who participated in strength training any time in their lives were 0.82 (0.68-0.97), 0.83 (0.70-0.99), and 0.77 (0.63-0.94), respectively. Findings were similar when looking at the specific age ranges. CONCLUSION: Strength training is beneficial for future knee health, counteracting long-held assumptions that strength training has adverse effects.

Association of Medial Meniscus Root Tears and Nonroot Tears With Worsening of Radiographic Knee Osteoarthritis.

Background: Medial meniscus root tears (RTs) are associated with the development and worsening of knee osteoarthritis (OA), but little is known about their progression when compared with meniscal tears that spare the root (nonroot tears; NRTs). Purpose: To compare radiographic worsening of OA in knees with RTs versus NRTs and to identify factors associated with radiographic worsening of OA in knees with RTs. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Using the Osteoarthritis Initiative database, we included knees with medial meniscus RTs and NRTs present at the baseline visit (baseline tears) and new RTs and NRTs observed at 12- to 48-month annual follow-up visits (incident tears). Worsening of radiographic OA was defined for baseline tears as an increase in Kellgren-Lawrence grade (KLG) during the subsequent 12 months of follow-up; for incident tears, worsening was defined as either concurrent (increase in KLG over the 12 months preceding tear appearance on magnetic resonance imaging) or subsequent (increase in KLG during the 12 months after tear appearance). Odds ratios (ORs), adjusted for covariates, were calculated for the association of worsening by type of tear. Results: Included were 39 knees with baseline RTs, 633 knees with baseline NRTs, 33 knees with incident RTs, and 234 knees with incident NRTs. Radiographic OA worsening subsequent to meniscal tear identification was no different for baseline RTs (15%) or baseline NRTs (14%; adjusted OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 0.52-3.47), nor did subsequent worsening differ for incident RTs (19%) versus incident NRTs (18%; adjusted OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.15-1.83). Concurrent radiographic OA worsening was seen at a significantly higher rate for incident RTs (64%) versus incident NRTs (21%; adjusted OR, 3.00; 95% CI, 1.21-7.47). Incident RTs in knees without radiographic OA (KLG 0-1) before the tear had a high rate of worsening (94%, n = 16) and were more likely to worsen than those in knees with radiographic OA (KLG ≥2) present before the tear. Conclusion: Compared with NRTs, incident RTs were associated with a significantly increased risk of worsening radiographic OA over a 12-month period concurrent with the appearance of the tear. Incident RTs in knees without radiographic OA at baseline had a high rate of worsening.

Associations between weight change, knee subcutaneous fat and cartilage thickness in overweight and obese individuals: 4-Year data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To assess (i) the impact of changes in body weight on changes in joint-adjacent subcutaneous fat (SCF) and cartilage thickness over 4 years and (ii) the relation between changes in joint-adjacent SCF and knee cartilage thickness. DESIGN: Individuals from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (total=399) with > 10% weight gain (n=100) and > 10% weight loss (n=100) over 4 years were compared to a matched control cohort with less than 3% change in weight (n=199). 3.0T Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) of the right knee was performed at baseline and after 4 years to quantify joint-adjacent SCF and cartilage thickness. Linear regression models were used to evaluate the associations between the (i) weight change group and 4-year changes in both knee SCF and cartilage thickness, and (ii) 4-year changes in knee SCF and in cartilage thickness. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, baseline body mass index (BMI), tibial diameter (and weight change group in analysis (ii)). RESULTS: Individuals who lost weight over 4-years had significantly less joint-adjacent SCF (beta range, medial/lateral joint sides: 2.2-4.2 mm, p < 0.001) than controls; individuals who gained weight had significantly greater joint-adjacent SCF than controls (beta range: -1.4 to -3.9 mm, p < 0.001). No statistically significant associations were found between weight change and cartilage thickness change. However, increases in joint-adjacent SCF over 4 years were significantly associated with decreases in cartilage thickness (p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Weight change was associated with joint-adjacent SCF, but not with change in cartilage thickness. However, 4-year increases in joint-adjacent SCF were associated with decreases in cartilage thickness independent of baseline BMI and weight change group.

Hip Abductor Weakness and Its Association With New or Worsened Knee Pain: Data From the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study.

OBJECTIVE: Hip abductors, important for controlling pelvic and femoral orientation during gait, may affect knee pain. Our objective was to evaluate the relation of hip abductor strength to worsened or new-onset frequent knee pain. Given previously noted associations of knee extensor strength with osteoarthritis in women, we performed sex-specific analyses. METHODS: We used data from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis study. Hip abductor and knee extensor strength was measured. Knee pain was assessed using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) questionnaire and a question about frequent knee pain at baseline (144-month visit), and 8, 16, and 24 months thereafter. Knee pain outcomes were worsened knee pain (2-point increase in WOMAC pain) and incident frequent knee pain (answering yes to the frequent knee pain question among those without frequent knee pain at baseline). Leg-specific analyses tested hip abductor strength as a risk factor for worsened and new frequent knee pain, adjusting for potential covariates. Additionally, we stratified by knee extensor strength (high versus low). RESULTS: Among women, compared to the highest quartile of hip abductor strength, the lowest quartile had 1.7 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.1-2.6) times the odds of worsened knee pain; significant associations were limited to women with high knee extensor strength (odds ratio 2.0 [95% CI 1.1-3.5]). We found no relation of abductor strength to worsening knee pain in men or with incident frequent knee pain in men or women. CONCLUSION: Hip abductor weakness was associated with worsening knee pain in women with strong knee extensors, but not with incident frequent knee pain in men or women. Knee extensor strength may be necessary, but not sufficient, to prevent pain worsening.

Comparison of evaluation metrics of deep learning for imbalanced imaging data in osteoarthritis studies.

PURPOSE: To compare the evaluation metrics for deep learning methods that were developed using imbalanced imaging data in osteoarthritis studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study utilized 2996 sagittal intermediate-weighted fat-suppressed knee MRIs with MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score readings from 2467 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative study. We obtained probabilities of the presence of bone marrow lesions (BMLs) from MRIs in the testing dataset at the sub-region (15 sub-regions), compartment, and whole-knee levels based on the trained deep learning models. We compared different evaluation metrics (e.g., receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and precision-recall (PR) curves) in the testing dataset with various class ratios (presence of BMLs vs. absence of BMLs) at these three data levels to assess the model's performance. RESULTS: In a subregion with an extremely high imbalance ratio, the model achieved a ROC-AUC of 0.84, a PR-AUC of 0.10, a sensitivity of 0, and a specificity of 1. CONCLUSION: The commonly used ROC curve is not sufficiently informative, especially in the case of imbalanced data. We provide the following practical suggestions based on our data analysis: 1) ROC-AUC is recommended for balanced data, 2) PR-AUC should be used for moderately imbalanced data (i.e., when the proportion of the minor class is above 5% and less than 50%), and 3) for severely imbalanced data (i.e., when the proportion of the minor class is below 5%), it is not practical to apply a deep learning model, even with the application of techniques addressing imbalanced data issues.

Gait, physical activity and tibiofemoral cartilage damage: a longitudinal machine learning analysis in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study.

OBJECTIVE: To (1) develop and evaluate a machine learning model incorporating gait and physical activity to predict medial tibiofemoral cartilage worsening over 2 years in individuals without advanced knee osteoarthritis and (2) identify influential predictors in the model and quantify their effect on cartilage worsening. DESIGN: An ensemble machine learning model was developed to predict worsened cartilage MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score at follow-up from gait, physical activity, clinical and demographic data from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study. Model performance was evaluated in repeated cross-validations. The top 10 predictors of the outcome across 100 held-out test sets were identified by a variable importance measure. Their effect on the outcome was quantified by g-computation. RESULTS: Of 947 legs in the analysis, 14% experienced medial cartilage worsening at follow-up. The median (2.5-97.5th percentile) area under the receiver operating characteristic curve across the 100 held-out test sets was 0.73 (0.65-0.79). Baseline cartilage damage, higher Kellgren-Lawrence grade, greater pain during walking, higher lateral ground reaction force impulse, greater time spent lying and lower vertical ground reaction force unloading rate were associated with greater risk of cartilage worsening. Similar results were found for the subset of knees with baseline cartilage damage. CONCLUSIONS: A machine learning approach incorporating gait, physical activity and clinical/demographic features showed good performance for predicting cartilage worsening over 2 years. While identifying potential intervention targets from the model is challenging, lateral ground reaction force impulse, time spent lying and vertical ground reaction force unloading rate should be investigated further as potential early intervention targets to reduce medial tibiofemoral cartilage worsening.

The effect of interactions between BMI and sustained depressive symptoms on knee osteoarthritis over 4 years: data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

BACKGROUND: To assess the compound effects of BMI and sustained depressive symptoms on changes in knee structure, cartilage composition, and knee pain over 4 years using statistical interaction analyses. METHODS: One thousand eight hundred forty-four individuals from the Osteoarthritis Initiative Database were analyzed at baseline and 4-year follow-up. Individuals were categorized according to their BMI and presence of depressive symptoms (based on the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (threshold≥16)) at baseline and 4-year follow-up. 3 T MRI was used to quantify knee cartilage T2 over 4 years, while radiographs were used to assess joint space narrowing (JSN). Mixed effects models examined the effect of BMI-depressive symptoms interactions on outcomes of cartilage T2, JSN, and knee pain over 4-years. RESULTS: The BMI-depressive symptoms interaction was significantly associated with knee pain (p < 0.001) changes over 4 years, but not with changes in cartilage T2 (p = 0.27). In women, the BMI-depressive symptoms interaction was significantly associated with JSN (p = 0.01). In a group-based analysis, participants with obesity and depression had significantly greater 4-year changes in knee pain (coeff.(obesity + depression vs. no_obesity + no_depression) = 4.09, 95%CI = 3.60-4.58, p < 0.001), JSN (coeff. = 0.60, 95%CI = 0.44-0.77, p < 0.001), and cartilage T2 (coeff. = 1.09, 95%CI = 0.68-1.49, p < 0.001) than participants without depression and normal BMI. CONCLUSIONS: The compound effects of obesity and depression have greater impact on knee pain and JSN progression compared to what would be expected based on their individual effects.

Do associations with hand OA vary by knee osteoarthritis phenotype? Cross-sectional data from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study.

Objective: Osteoarthritis (OA) is highly heterogeneous and has both biomechanical and systemic components that may not have the same etiology. We therefore aimed to identify specific knee OA phenotypes that may be more strongly associated with hand OA to refine the criteria used to define multi-joint OA. Design: We assessed data from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST). We ascertained hand OA from bilateral hand photographs; scores for each joint row were summed to yield an aggregate hand OA score. Knee OA was ascertained from bilateral posteroanterior knee radiographs read for Kellgren-Lawrence grade and individual radiographic features. We tested associations between hand and knee OA with phenotypes including symptomatic OA, hyper- and atrophic knee OA, and one excluding post-traumatic OA. Associations between hand and knee OA were assessed with logistic regression, adjusted for age. Results: We studied 2493 participants with hand and knee OA measures. Median age was 63 years with 57% women. 55% had an aggregate hand OA score ≥2; frequency of knee OA phenotypes ranged from 8% to 34%. The age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) was 1.14 (95% confidence interval (CI) â€‹= â€‹1.04-1.26) for knee OA per standard deviation of the hand OA aggregate score. Hand OA associations with symptomatic knee OA and knee OA excluding post-traumatic knee OA were OR â€‹= â€‹1.16 (95% CI â€‹= â€‹1.03-1.31) and OR â€‹= â€‹1.21 (95% CI â€‹= â€‹1.08-1.35), respectively. No other knee OA phenotype reached statistical significance. Conclusions: Age-adjusted associations between hand and knee OA were modest and were largely similar across knee OA phenotypes.

Selection of Knees With Subsequent Cartilage Thickness Loss Based on Magnetic Resonance Imaging Semiquantitative Grading: Data From the Osteoarthritis Initiative Foundation for the National Institutes of Health Biomarker Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate which magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based articular pathologies are predictive of subsequent medial femorotibial compartment quantitative cartilage thickness loss and therefore suitable for enrichment of clinical trials with participants showing a high likelihood for structural progression. METHODS: Semiquantitative MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score (MOAKS) assessments at baseline and quantitative cartilage thickness measurements at baseline and year-2 follow-up were performed in 599 participants (age 62 years; body mass index 31 kg/m2 ; 59% female) from the Osteoarthritis Initiative-based Foundation for the National Institutes of Health Osteoarthritis Biomarkers Consortium. Knees were classified as medial femorotibial compartment (MFTC) progressors or nonprogressors based on MFTC cartilage thickness change (smallest detectable change threshold -111 µm). Logistic regression was used to investigate the association between baseline presence and severity of MFTC MOAKS pathologies with subsequent MFTC progression. The standardized response mean (SRM) was computed to estimate the sensitivity to change that can be achieved when selecting knees based on MOAKS pathologies. RESULTS: Presence of MFTC MOAKS cartilage damage (odds ratio [OR] 2.77 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.76, 4.36]), MFTC bone marrow lesions (OR 2.69 [95% CI 1.89, 3.83]), medial meniscus extrusion or damage (OR 2.21 [95% CI 1.37, 3.55]), as well as MOAKS severity subscales for cartilage and meniscus damage were associated with subsequent progression. The SRM was greater in knees with than in knees without the presence of these pathologies and was associated with the severity of those pathologies. CONCLUSION: MRI-based grading of articular pathologies makes it possible to specifically select progressor knees suitable for inclusion in clinical trials but also to identify knees in which treatment is not indicated (e.g., knees without cartilage damage despite presence of radiographic osteoarthritis).

Relation of Temporal Asymmetry During Walking to Two-Year Knee Pain Outcomes in Those With Mild-to-Moderate Unilateral Knee Pain: An Exploratory Analysis From the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to explore the cross-sectional relation of unilateral knee pain severity and temporal asymmetry during walking and to determine relations of temporal asymmetry during walking to 2-year changes in ipsilateral and contralateral knee pain in those with mild-to-moderate unilateral knee pain. METHODS: The Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study is a prospective cohort study of adults with or at risk for knee osteoarthritis. The current study included participants with unilateral knee pain. Gait was assessed during self-selected and fast walking at baseline. Knee pain was assessed at baseline and 2 years. We calculated limb symmetry indices (LSIs; nonpainful limb/painful limb × 100) for stance, single-limb support time, and double-limb support time, then examined their relations to unilateral knee pain severity, incident contralateral knee pain, and persistent ipsilateral knee pain. RESULTS: Unilateral knee pain severity was not associated with temporal asymmetry during self-selected or fast walking. At 2 years, 17.1% of participants had incident contralateral knee pain and 51.4% had persistent ipsilateral knee pain. For self-selected walking, greater LSIs (i.e., longer time on the nonpainful limb) for stance and single-limb support time were associated with decreased odds of incident contralateral knee pain. Measures of temporal asymmetry were not associated with persistent ipsilateral knee pain, except for single-limb support time during fast walking. CONCLUSION: For those with unilateral knee pain, temporal asymmetry during walking is not associated with pain severity. However, select measures of stance and single-limb support time during self-selected and fast walking relate to longitudinal knee pain outcomes.

Effects of Weight Change on Knee and Hip Radiographic Measurements and Pain Over Four Years: Data From the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of weight loss and weight gain on hip and knee radiographic changes, pain, and joint replacement over 4 years. METHODS: Participants (n = 2,752) from the Osteoarthritis Initiative were classified as those with weight gain (more than 5% gain), weight loss (more than -5% loss), or as controls (-3% to 3% change) over 4 years. Generalized estimating equations (adjusted for age, sex, and body mass index) were used to assess the relationship between the weight-change group and 4-year changes in knee radiographic osteoarthritis (OA) (Kellgren/Lawrence [K/L] grade), hip OA (Croft summary grade), joint space narrowing (JSN), and joint pain. RESULTS: For radiographic knee OA, weight loss was associated with significantly lower odds of K/L grade worsening over 4 years (odds ratio [OR] 0.69 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.53-0.91], P = 0.009), and weight gain was significantly associated with higher odds of medial knee JSN (OR 1.29 [95% CI 1.01-1.64], P = 0.038) compared to controls. For knee pain, weight loss was significantly associated with knee pain resolution over 4 years (OR 1.40 [95% CI 1.06-1.86], P = 0.019) while weight gain was associated with knee pain development (OR 1.34 [95% CI 1.08-1.67], P = 0.009) compared to controls. For all hip outcomes, no significant associations (P > 0.05) were found with weight-change groups. The associations between the weight-change group and total hip or total knee replacement were not significant (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: This large, longitudinal study (n = 2,752 with 4-year follow-up) suggests that weight loss may protect against, and weight gain may exacerbate, radiographic and symptomatic knee OA, while weight change (at a 5% threshold) does not have significant effects on hip OA.