Prognostic and predictive markers of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease in a clinical trial and long-term observational cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To explore prognostic and predictive markers of SSc-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) outcomes in a phase 3 trial (focuSSced) and prognostic markers in a real-world cohort (SMART). METHODS: The focuSSced SSc-ILD subgroup included 68 of 106 placebo-treated and 68 of 104 tocilizumab-treated patients. The SMART cohort included 505 patients with SSc-ILD. Linear mixed-effect models were used to identify factors associated with change in forced vital capacity (FVC). Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox regression were used for time-to-event analyses. RESULTS: In placebo-treated focuSSced patients, sex was a significant prognostic factor for FVC decline; males had increased risk for absolute decline ≥10% in percent-predicted FVC (ppFVC) and 0.22% faster weekly FVC decline than females (P = 0.0001). FVC was 9.8% lower in patients with CRP >6 mg/ml vs those with CRP ≤6 mg/ml (P = 0.0059). Tocilizumab reduced the risk for ≥10% decline in ppFVC in patients who were male, had earlier disease (<2 years duration), had IL-6 levels <10 pg/ml, or had anti-topoisomerase antibodies (ATA). In the SMART cohort, prognostic factors for ppFVC <70% were male sex, ATA, and low baseline FVC. Males had 3.3% lower FVC 1 year after disease onset (P < 0.001) and 0.6% faster yearly decline (P = 0.03) than females. CONCLUSION: Prognostic markers in SSc-ILD were similar between focuSSced and SMART. Male sex and inflammatory markers were associated with lower FVC but IL-6 ≥10 pg/ml was not predictive of response to tocilizumab. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02453256.

Dynamic Prediction of Pulmonary Hypertension in Systemic Sclerosis Using Landmark Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a serious complication of systemic sclerosis (SSc). In this study, we explored the prediction of short-term risk for PH using serial pulmonary function tests (PFTs) and other disease features. METHODS: SSc patients in whom disease onset occurred ≥10 years prior to data retrieval and for whom autoantibody specificity and PFT data were available were included in this study. Mixed-effects modeling was used to describe changes in PFTs over time. Landmarking was utilized to include serial assessments and stratified Cox proportional hazards regression analysis with landmarks as strata was used to develop the PH prediction models. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 1,247 SSc patients, 16.3% of whom were male and 35.8% of whom had diffuse cutaneous SSc. Anticentromere, antitopoisomerase, and anti-RNA polymerase antibodies were observed in 29.8%, 22.0%, and 11.4% of patients, respectively, and PH developed in 13.6% of patients. Over time, diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLco) and carbon monoxide transfer coefficient (Kco) declined in all SSc patients (up to 1.5% per year) but demonstrated much greater annual decline (up to 4.5% and 4.8%, respectively) in the 5-7 years preceding PH diagnosis. Comparisons between multivariable models including either DLco, Kco, or forced vital capacity (FVC)/DLco ratio, demonstrated that both absolute values and change over the preceding year in those measurements were strongly associated with the risk of PH (hazard ratio [HR] 0.93 and 0.76 for Kco and its change; HR 0.90 and 0.96 for DLco and its change; and HR 1.08 and 2.01 for FVC/DLco ratio and its change; P < 0.001 for all). The Kco-based model had the greatest discriminating ability (Harrell's C-statistic 0.903). CONCLUSION: Our findings strongly support the importance of PFT trends over time in identifying patients at risk of developing PH.

Autoantibody predictors of gastrointestinal symptoms in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence and burden of SSc-related gastrointestinal dysfunction (SSc-GI) and to evaluate associations with demographic, clinical and serological characteristics. METHODS: Patients completed the UCLA SCTC GIT 2.0 questionnaire for SSc-GI disease to assess the burden of GI disease across multiple functional and psychological domains. Questionnaire scores were assessed using non-parametric and quantile regression analyses. RESULTS: Our cohort included 526 patients with SSc, with a typical distribution of disease-associated autoantibodies (ACA, ARA, ATA, PM-Scl, U1RNP, U3RNP). We demonstrated associations between hallmark antibodies and the domain-specific burden of GI disease. In particular, ACA, ARA and ENA-negative demonstrated increased SSc-GI disease burden, while PM-Scl conferred relative protection. In a distributional analysis, associations with autoantibodies were particularly marked in those with the highest burden of GI disease. CONCLUSION: There is a significant burden of SSc-GI disease in patients with SSc; reflux and bloating symptoms are most prominent. SSc hallmark antibodies may predict increased risk of SSc-GI disease, in particular ACA and ARA, while PM-Scl may be protective.

Outcomes linked to eligibility for stem cell transplantation trials in diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to explore outcomes in a cohort of dcSSc patients fulfilling eligibility criteria for stem cell transplantation (SCT) studies but receiving standard immunosuppression. METHODS: From a large single-centre dcSSc cohort (n = 636), patients were identified using the published SCT trials' inclusion criteria. Patients meeting the trials' exclusion criteria were excluded. RESULTS: Of the 227 eligible patients, 214 met the inclusion criteria for ASTIS (Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation International Scleroderma), 82 for SCOT (Scleroderma: Cyclophosphamide Or Transplantation) and 185 for the UPSIDE (UPfront autologous haematopoietic Stem cell transplantation vs Immunosuppressive medication in early DiffusE cutaneous systemic sclerosis) trial, and 66 were excluded based on age >65 years, low diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (DLco), pulmonary hypertension or creatinine clearance <40 ml/min. The mean follow-up time was 12 years (s.d. 7). Among the eligible patients, 103 (45.4%) died. Survival was 96% at 2 years, 88% at 5 years, 73% at 10 years and 43% at 20 years. Compared with this 'SCT-eligible' cohort, those patients who would have been excluded from SCT trials had a worse long-term survival (97% at 2 years, 77% at 5 years, 52% at 10 years and 15% at 20 years, log rank P < 0.001). Excluded patients also had a significantly worse long-term event-free survival. Hazard of death was higher in patients with higher age at onset [hazard ratio (HR) 1.05, P < 0.001], higher ESR at baseline (HR 1.01, P = 0.025) and males (HR 2.12, P = 0.008). CONCLUSION: SCT inclusion criteria identify patients with poor outcome despite current best practice treatment. Patients meeting the inclusion criteria for SCT but who would have been excluded from the trials because of age, pulmonary hypertension, poor kidney function or DLco <40% had worse outcomes.

High proton pump inhibitor exposure increases risk of calcinosis in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use and the presence and severity of calcinosis in SSc. METHODS: We analysed data from two SSc cohorts from a single centre. Cohort 1 included 199 patients reviewed over 10 years, for whom retrospective data on PPI use and calcinosis were available. Cohort 2 was recruited prospectively and included 215 consecutive patients, who underwent clinical assessment. Outcomes of interest were presence of current calcinosis (CC) or calcinosis at any time (CAT). RESULTS: The cohort 1 data analysis showed that among patients on standard dose PPI 20% had calcinosis, while in those on high doses of PPI calcinosis was present in 39% (P = 0.003). Analysis of the data from cohort 2 confirmed these findings, demonstrating that the odds of CAT increased significantly with longer PPI exposure [odds ratio (OR) 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.06; P < 0.001], longer disease duration (OR 1.08, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.12; P < 0.001) and greater age (OR 1.03, CI: 1.01, 1.05; P = 0.010). Multivariable logistic regression showed that higher exposure to PPI remained a significant predictor of calcinosis, with PPI exposure >10 years increasing the risk of CAT >6-fold, compared with no PPI (OR 6.37, 95% CI: 1.92, 21.17; P = 0.003) after adjusting for disease duration and antibodies. CONCLUSION: We confirm a significant association between high PPI exposure with severity of calcinosis in SSc. Given the clinical impact of calcinosis and reflux in SSc, PPI exposure as a potentially modifiable risk factor for calcinosis requires further evaluation.

Comparing paediatric- and adult-onset linear morphoea in a large tertiary-referral scleroderma centre.

Background: Linear morphoea is a severe morphoea subtype associated with extracutaneous manifestations, potentially permanent disfigurement and functional impairment. Linear morphoea is more prevalent in paediatric patients, and knowledge of disease in adults is limited. The objective of this study was to compare paediatric- and adult-onset linear morphoea, in an exclusively adult population. Methodology: This was a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with linear morphoea seen over a 3-year period at a single-site adult tertiary-referral Connective Tissue Disease centre. Clinical markers of disease severity and course, including anatomical distribution, extracutaneous manifestations, cutaneous symptoms, associated autoimmunity, inflammatory blood parameters, Dermatology Life Quality Index scores, treatment requirements and modified Localised Scleroderma Activity Tool were assessed and compared in paediatric- and adult-onset linear morphoea. Results: Of 298 patients with morphoea seen during the study period, 135 had linear morphoea and 133 were included in the study. Most were female (78.9%), the mean age was 36.5 years and almost half (43.6%) had adult-onset disease. Disease was similarly severe between groups with regard to anatomical distribution, cutaneous symptoms (n = 89, 66.9%), extracutaneous manifestations (n = 76, 57.1%), antinuclear antibody-positivity (n = 40, 40.4%), raised erythrocyte sedimentation rate (n = 27, 25.0%) and associated autoimmune diagnoses (n = 15, 11.3%). Prescribed treatments were similar between groups; 73.7% receiving methotrexate and almost one-third (32.3%) requiring more than one steroid-sparing agent. Those with paediatric-onset had more disease-related damage, with a mean modified Localised Scleroderma Skin Damage Index score of 19.5 (95% confidence interval: 17.0-22.0) versus 8.1 (95% confidence interval: 4.4-11.8; p < 0.001). Significantly more patients with adult-onset linear morphoea had quiescent disease (p = 0.0332), and even after correcting for disease duration, paediatric-onset patients still had 2.6 times greater odds of active disease (odds ratio = 2.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.9-7.6; p = 0.083). Conclusion: Linear morphoea in adults can be a severe disease with extracutaneous, autoimmune and systemic features. Adults with paediatric-onset disease appear to have more severe cumulative damage, greater functional impairment and ongoing disease activity. This patient subgroup may require particularly close monitoring and more aggressive therapy.

Analysis of Anti-RNA Polymerase III Antibody-positive Systemic Sclerosis and Altered GPATCH2L and CTNND2 Expression in Scleroderma Renal Crisis.

OBJECTIVE: Scleroderma renal crisis (SRC) is a life-threatening complication of systemic sclerosis (SSc) strongly associated with anti-RNA polymerase III antibody (ARA) autoantibodies. We investigated genetic susceptibility and altered protein expression in renal biopsy specimens in ARA-positive patients with SRC. METHODS: ARA-positive patients (n = 99) with at least 5 years' follow-up (49% with a history of SRC) were selected from a well characterized SSc cohort (n = 2254). Cases were genotyped using the Illumina Human Omni-express chip. Based on initial regression analysis, 9 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) were chosen for validation in a separate cohort of 256 ARA-positive patients (40 with SRC). Immunostaining of tissue sections from SRC or control kidney was used to quantify expression of candidate proteins based upon genetic analysis of the discovery cohort. RESULTS: Analysis of 641,489 SNP suggested association of POU2F1 (rs2093658; P = 1.98 × 10-5), CTNND2 (rs1859082; P = 5.58 × 10-5), HECW2 (rs16849716; P = 1.2 × 10-4), and GPATCH2L (rs935332; P = 4.92 × 10-5) with SRC. Further, the validation cohort showed an association between rs935332 within the GPATCH2L region, with SRC (P = 0.025). Immunostaining of renal biopsy sections showed increased tubular expression of GPATCH2L (P = 0.026) and glomerular expression of CTNND2 (P = 0.026) in SRC samples (n = 8) compared with normal human kidney controls (n = 8), despite absence of any genetic replication for the associated SNP. CONCLUSION: Increased expression of 2 candidate proteins, GPATCH2L and CTNND2, in SRC compared with control kidney suggests a potential role in pathogenesis of SRC. For GPATCH2L, this may reflect genetic susceptibility in ARA-positive patients with SSc based upon 2 independent cohorts.

Defining genetic risk factors for scleroderma-associated interstitial lung disease : IRF5 and STAT4 gene variants are associated with scleroderma while STAT4 is protective against scleroderma-associated interstitial lung disease.

Although several genetic associations with scleroderma (SSc) are defined, very little is known on genetic susceptibility to SSc-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD). A number of common polymorphisms have been associated with SSc-ILD, but most have not been replicated in separate populations. Four SNPs in IRF5, and one in each of STAT4, CD226 and IRAK1, selected as having been previously the most consistently associated with SSc-ILD, were genotyped in 612 SSc patients, of European descent, of whom 394 had ILD. The control population (n = 503) comprised individuals of European descent from the 1000 Genomes Project. After Bonferroni correction, two of the IRF5 SNPs, rs2004640 (OR (95% CI)1.30 (1.10-1.54), pcorr = 0.015) and rs10488631 (OR 1.48 (1.14-1.92), pcorr = 0.022), and the STAT4 SNP rs7574865 (OR 1.43 (1.18-1.73), pcorr = 0.0015) were significantly associated with SSc compared with controls. However, none of the SNPs were significantly different between patients with SSc-ILD and controls. Two SNPs in IRF5, rs10488631 (OR 1.72 (1.24-2.39), pcorr = 0.0098), and rs2004640 (OR 1.39 (1.11-1.75), pcorr = 0.03), showed a significant difference in allele frequency between controls and patients without ILD, as did STAT4 rs7574865 (OR 1.86 (1.45-2.38), pcorr = 6.6 × 10-6). A significant difference between SSc with and without ILD was only observed for STAT4 rs7574865, being less frequent in patients with ILD (OR 0.66 (0.51-0.85), pcorr = 0.0084). In conclusion, IRF5 rs2004640 and rs10488631, and STAT4 rs7574865 were significantly associated with SSc as a whole. Only STAT4 rs7574865 showed a significant difference in allele frequency in SSc-ILD, with the T allele being protective against ILD.Key points• We confirm the associations of the IRF5 SNPs rs2004640 and rs10488631, and the STAT4 SNP rs7574865, with SSc as a whole.• None of the tested SNPs were risk factors for SSc-ILD specifically.• The STAT4 rs7574865 T allele was protective against the development of lung fibrosis in SSc patients.• Further work is required to understand the genetic basis of lung fibrosis in association with scleroderma.

Pathogenesis of systemic sclerosis associated interstitial lung disease.

Systemic sclerosis is an autoimmune disease leading to vasculopathy and fibrosis of skin and internal organs. Despite likely shared pathogenic mechanisms, the patterns of skin and lung fibrosis differ. Pathogenesis of interstitial lung disease, a major cause of death in systemic sclerosis, reflects the intrinsic disease pathobiology and is associated with distinct clinical phenotypes and laboratory characteristics. The commonest histological pattern of systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease is non-specific interstitial pneumonia. Systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease pathogenesis involves multiple components, including susceptibility and triggering factors, which could be genetic or environmental. The process is amplified likely through ongoing inflammation and the link between inflammatory activity and fibrosis with IL6 emerging as a key mediator. The disease is driven by epithelial injury, reflected by markers in the serum, such as surfactant proteins and KL-6. In addition, mediators that are produced by epithelial cells and that regulate inflammatory cell trafficking may be important, especially CCL2. Other factors, such as CXCL4 and CCL18, point towards immune-mediated damage or injury response. Monocytes and alternatively activated macrophages appear to be important. Transforming growth factor beta appears central to pathogenesis and regulates epithelial repair and fibroblast activation. Understanding pathogenesis may help to unravel the stages of systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease, risks of progression and determinants of outcome. With this article, we set out to review the multiple factors, including genetic, environmental, cellular and molecular, that may be involved in the pathogenesis of systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease and the mechanisms leading to sustained fibrosis. We propose a model for the pathogenesis of systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease, based on the available literature.

Using Autoantibodies and Cutaneous Subset to Develop Outcome-Based Disease Classification in Systemic Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the associations between autoantibodies, clinical presentation, and outcomes among patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) in order to develop a novel SSc classification scheme that would incorporate both antibodies and the cutaneous disease subset as criteria. METHODS: Demographic and clinical characteristics, including cutaneous subset, time of disease and organ complication onset, and autoantibody specificities, were determined in a cohort of SSc subjects. Survival analysis was used to assess the effect of the autoantibodies on organ disease and death. RESULTS: The study included 1,325 subjects. Among the antibody/skin disease subsets, anticentromere antibody-positive patients with limited cutaneous SSc (lcSSc) (n = 374) had the highest 20-year survival (65.3%), lowest incidence of clinically significant pulmonary fibrosis (PF) (8.5%) and scleroderma renal crisis (SRC) (0.3%), and lowest incidence of cardiac SSc (4.9%), whereas the frequency of pulmonary hypertension (PH) was similar to the mean value in the SSc cohort overall. The anti-Scl-70+ groups of patients with lcSSc (n = 138) and patients with diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc) (n = 149) had the highest incidence of clinically significant PF (86.1% and 84%, respectively, at 15 years). Anti-Scl-70+ patients with dcSSc had the lowest survival (32.4%) and the second highest incidence of cardiac SSc (12.9%) at 20 years. In contrast, in anti-Scl-70+ patients with lcSSc, other complications were rare, and these patients demonstrated the lowest incidence of PH (6.9%) and second highest survival (61.8%) at 20 years. Anti-RNA polymerase antibody-positive SSc patients (n = 147) had the highest incidence of SRC (28.1%) at 20 years. The anti-U3 RNP+ SSc group (n = 56) had the highest incidence of PH (33.8%) and cardiac SSc (13.2%) at 20 years. Among lcSSc patients with other autoantibodies (n = 295), the risk of SRC and cardiac SSc was low at 20 years (2.7% and 2.4%, respectively), while the frequencies of other outcomes were similar to the mean values in the full SSc cohort. Patients with dcSSc who were positive for other autoantibodies (n = 166) had a poor prognosis, demonstrating the second lowest survival (33.6%) and frequent organ complications. CONCLUSION: These findings highlight the importance of autoantibodies, cutaneous subset, and disease duration when assessing morbidity and mortality in patients with SSc. Our novel classification scheme may improve disease monitoring and benefit future clinical trial designs in SSc.

Vasodilators and low-dose acetylsalicylic acid are associated with a lower incidence of distinct primary myocardial disease manifestations in systemic sclerosis: results of the DeSScipher inception cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the influence of vasodilator drugs on the occurrence of features depending on myocardial ischaemia/fibrosis (ventricular arrhythmias, Q waves, cardiac blocks, pacemaker implantation, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <55%, and/or congestive heart failure and sudden cardiac death) in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: 601 patients with SSc were enrolled from 1 December 2012 to 30 November 2015 and had a second visit 0.5-4 years apart. 153 received no vasodilators; 448 received vasodilator therapy (ie, calcium channel blockers and/or ACE inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers or combinations of them), 89 of them being also treated with either endothelin receptor antagonists or PDE5 inhibitors or prostanoids. Associations between the occurrence of myocardial disease manifestations and any demographic, disease and therapeutic aspect were investigated by Cox regression analysis. A Cox frailty survival model with centre of enrolment as random effect was performed. RESULTS: During 914 follow-up patient-years, 12 ventricular arrhythmias, 5 Q waves, 40 cardiac blocks, 6 pacemaker implantations and 19 reduced LVEF and/or congestive heart failure (CHF) occurred. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, vasodilator therapy was associated with a lower incidence of ventricular arrhythmias (p=0.03); low-dose acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) with a lower incidence of cardiac blocks and/or Q waves and/or pacemaker implantation (p=0.02); active disease with a higher incidence of LVEF <55% and/or CHF and cardiac blocks and/or Q waves and/or pacemaker implantation (p=0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The present study might suggest a preventative effect on the occurrence of distinct myocardial manifestations by vasodilator therapy and low-dose ASA.

Elevated kynurenine levels in diffuse cutaneous and anti-RNA polymerase III positive systemic sclerosis.

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a systemic disease characterized by vasculopathy, progressive fibrosis and autoimmune activation. Tryptophan (Trp) metabolism has been linked to altered immune cell function and to malignancy. We have investigated the role of Trp metabolic pathway in SSc measuring serum Trp, Kynurenine (Kyn) and Trp/Kyn ratio in a cohort of 97 SSc patients and 10 healthy controls. Association with disease characteristics was evaluated. We found that Trp levels in SSc patients were significantly lower compared to HCs. We also found that patients with diffuse cutaneous (dcSSc) had lower levels of Trp compared to limited cutaneous (lcSSc). These results were paralleled by higher levels of Kyn found in SSc patients compared to HCs and significantly lower levels in dcSSc compared to lcSSc. The autoantibody profile was also found to be significantly associated with Kyn and Trp levels as anti-RNA-polymerase III (ARA) positive patients were shown to have lower Trp levels and higher Kyn levels compared with anti-centromere and anti-topoisomerase I positive patients. Moreover, the highest Trp/Kyn was found in ARA+ patients with dcSSc, suggesting that an activation of the Kyn pathway, is more specifically associated with this subset of SSc patients. Stability over time makes these markers of Trp metabolism feasible for SSc stratification.

Nearest Consensus Clustering Classification to Identify Subclasses and Predict Disease.

Disease subtyping, which helps to develop personalized treatments, remains a challenge in data analysis because of the many different ways to group patients based upon their data. However, if we can identify subclasses of disease, then it will help to develop better models that are more specific to individuals and should therefore improve prediction and understanding of the underlying characteristics of the disease in question. This paper proposes a new algorithm that integrates consensus clustering methods with classification in order to overcome issues with sample bias. The new algorithm combines K-means with consensus clustering in order build cohort-specific decision trees that improve classification as well as aid the understanding of the underlying differences of the discovered groups. The methods are tested on a real-world freely available breast cancer dataset and data from a London hospital on systemic sclerosis, a rare potentially fatal condition. Results show that "nearest consensus clustering classification" improves the accuracy and the prediction significantly when this algorithm has been compared with competitive similar methods.

Distinctive clinical phenotype of anti-centromere antibody-positive diffuse systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to define clinical characteristics and long-term survival of patients with dcSSc and positive ACA. METHODS: We identified all cases of ACA+ SSc in our cohort (n = 1313). Those with dcSSc (ACA+ diffuse) were compared with representative groups of consecutive ACA+ patients with limited subset (ACA+ limited) and ACA- dcSSc (non-ACA diffuse). RESULTS: Thirty-five patients (2.7%) were ACA+ diffuse. The peak modified Rodnan skin score was not significantly different between the dcSSc subgroups, but it occurred later in the disease course in ACA+ diffuse (88.54 vs 30.65 months, P < 0.001). Patterns of organ involvement were different between the groups. ACA+ diffuse had a higher incidence of interstitial lung disease than ACA+ limited (22.86 vs 4.43%, P = 0.001), but lower than non-ACA diffuse (41.18%, P = 0.042). More patients developed pulmonary hypertension in the ACA+ diffuse group (28.5 vs 12.0% ACA+ limited or 12.0% non-ACA diffuse), although this was attributable to the longer follow-up in these patients. The cumulative incidence of pulmonary hypertension was not different from the other two groups. The incidence of cardiac involvement was similar between the dcSSc groups, and scleroderma renal crisis was more frequent in the non-ACA diffuse group. Survival in ACA+ patients was similar in both subsets, whereas non-ACA diffuse had higher mortality. CONCLUSION: ACA+ dcSSc is uncommon and has a distinct clinical phenotype, with a more insidious onset of skin and organ involvement. Even in dcSSc, ACA appears protective for organ-based complications, namely interstitial lung disease and scleroderma renal crisis, and is associated with a better survival than expected in dcSSc.

Functional disability and its predictors in systemic sclerosis: a study from the DeSScipher project within the EUSTAR group.

Objectives: The multisystem manifestations of SSc can greatly impact patients' quality of life. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with disability in SSc. Methods: SSc patients from the prospective DeSScipher cohort who had completed the scleroderma health assessment questionnaire (SHAQ), a disability score that combines the health assessment questionnaire and five visual analogue scales, were included in this analysis. The effect of factors possibly associated with disability was analysed with multiple linear regressions. Results: The mean SHAQ and HAQ scores of the 944 patients included were 0.87 (s.d. = 0.66) and 0.92 (s.d. = 0.78); 59% of the patients were in the mild to moderate difficulty SHAQ category (0 ⩽ SHAQ < 1), 34% in the moderate to severe disability category (1 ⩽ SHAQ < 2) and 7% in the severe to very severe disability category (2 ⩽ SHAQ ⩽ 3). The means of the visual analogue scales scores were in order of magnitude: overall disease severity (37 mm), RP (31 mm), pulmonary symptoms (24 mm), gastrointestinal symptoms (20 mm) and digital ulcers (19 mm). In multiple regression, the main factors associated with high SHAQ scores were the presence of dyspnoea [modified New York Heart Association (NYHA) class IV (regression coefficient B = 0.62), modified NYHA class III (B = 0.53) and modified NYHA class II (B = 0.21; all vs modified NYHA class I)], FM (B = 0.37), muscle weakness (B = 0.27), digital ulcers (B = 0.20) and gastrointestinal symptoms (oesophageal symptoms, B = 0.16; stomach symptoms, B = 0.15; intestinal symptoms, B = 0.15). Conclusion: SSc patients perceive dyspnoea, pain, digital ulcers, muscle weakness and gastrointestinal symptoms as the main factors driving their level of disability, unlike physicians who emphasize objective measures of disability.

Characteristics and Survival of Anti-U1 RNP Antibody-Positive Patients With Connective Tissue Disease-Associated Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

OBJECTIVE: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a severe complication of connective tissue diseases (CTDs). This study aimed to investigate the clinical and hemodynamic characteristics and survival of anti-U1 RNP-positive patients with CTD-associated PAH, with a focus on systemic sclerosis (SSc)-associated PAH. METHODS: We implemented a prospective database that included patients with CTD-associated PAH for whom there were clinical, autoantibody, and mortality data. We compared clinical and hemodynamic characteristics to anti-U1 RNP antibody status. We then assessed whether anti-U1 RNP antibodies could be a prognostic factor in CTD-associated PAH with a focus on SSc-associated PAH. RESULTS: We studied a total of 342 patients with CTD-associated PAH, of whom 36 (11%) were anti-U1 RNP antibody positive. Anti-U1 RNP-positive patients were younger and less functionally impaired than were anti-U1 RNP-negative patients in CTD- and SSc-associated PAH. Hemodynamic parameters were similar in anti-U1 RNP-positive and anti-U1 RNP-negative patients. In CTD-associated PAH, anti-U1 RNP positivity was associated with decreased mortality in univariable analysis (hazard ratio 0.34 [95% confidence interval 0.18-0.65], P < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, anti-U1 RNP positivity was also associated with decreased mortality (hazard ratio 0.44 [95% confidence interval 0.20-0.97], P = 0.043) independently of age, sex, functional parameters, lung involvement, and hemodynamic parameters. Results were similar in SSc-associated PAH, although the association between anti-U1 RNP positivity and survival did not reach significance in univariable (hazard ratio 0.47 [95% confidence interval 0.22-1.02], P = 0.055) and multivariable (hazard ratio 0.47 [95% confidence interval 0.20-1.11], P = 0.085) analyses. CONCLUSION: Anti-U1 RNP positivity was associated with distinct clinical characteristics and survival in CTD- and SSc-associated PAH. While hemodynamic parameters were similar in anti-U1 RNP-positive and anti-U1 RNP-negative patients, our results suggest that anti-U1 RNP positivity could be a factor protecting against mortality in CTD- and SSc-associated PAH.

Derivation and External Validation of a Prediction Rule for Five-Year Mortality in Patients With Early Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Although diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) is associated with a reduction in life expectancy, there are no validated prognostic models for determining 5-year mortality in patients with dcSSc. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a rule for predicting 5-year mortality in patients with early dcSSc. METHODS: We studied an inception cohort of 388 US Caucasian patients with early dcSSc (<2 years from the appearance of the first symptom). Predefined baseline variables were analyzed in a stepwise logistic regression model in order to identify factors independently associated with 5-year all-cause mortality. We rounded the beta weights to the nearest integer and summed the points assigned to each variable in order to stratify patients into low-risk (<0 points), moderate-risk (1-2 points), and high-risk (≥3 points) groups. We then applied this rule to an external validation cohort of 144 Caucasian patients with early dcSSc from the Royal Free Hospital cohort and compared stratum-specific 5-year mortality. RESULTS: Six independent predictors (rounded beta weight) comprised the model: age at first visit (points allotted: -1, 0, or 1), male sex (points allotted: 0 or 1), tendon friction rubs (points allotted: 0 or 1), gastrointestinal involvement (points allotted: 0 or 1), RNA polymerase III antibodies (points allotted: 0 or 1), and anemia (points allotted: 0 or 1). The 3-level risk stratification model performed well, with no significant differences between the US derivation cohort and the UK validation cohort. CONCLUSION: We derived and externally validated, in US and UK cohorts, an easy-to-use 6-variable prediction rule that assigns low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk categories for 5-year mortality in patients with early dcSSc. Only history, physical examination, and basic laboratory assessments are required.