Gender and contemporary risk of adverse events in atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The role of gender in decision-making for oral anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains controversial. METHODS: The population cohort study used electronic healthcare records of 16 587 749 patients from UK primary care (2005-2020). Primary (composite of all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke, or arterial thromboembolism) and secondary outcomes were analysed using Cox hazard ratios (HR), adjusted for age, socioeconomic status, and comorbidities. RESULTS: 78 852 patients were included with AF, aged 40-75 years, no prior stroke, and no prescription of oral anticoagulants. 28 590 (36.3%) were women, and 50 262 (63.7%) men. Median age was 65.7 years (interquartile range 58.5-70.9), with women being older and having other differences in comorbidities. During a total follow-up of 431 086 patient-years, women had a lower adjusted primary outcome rate with HR 0.89 vs. men (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87-0.92; P < .001) and HR 0.87 after censoring for oral anticoagulation (95% CI 0.83-0.91; P < .001). This was driven by lower mortality in women (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.83-0.89; P < .001). No difference was identified between women and men for the secondary outcomes of ischaemic stroke or arterial thromboembolism (adjusted HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.94-1.07; P = .87), any stroke or any thromboembolism (adjusted HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.96-1.07; P = .58), and incident vascular dementia (adjusted HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.97-1.32; P = .11). Clinical risk scores were only modest predictors of outcomes, with CHA2DS2-VA (ignoring gender) superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for primary outcomes in this population (receiver operating characteristic curve area 0.651 vs. 0.639; P < .001) and no interaction with gender (P = .45). CONCLUSIONS: Removal of gender from clinical risk scoring could simplify the approach to which patients with AF should be offered oral anticoagulation.

Key considerations for digital decentralised clinical trials from a feasibility study assessing pacing interventions for long COVID.

Post COVID-19 condition or long COVID is highly prevalent and often debilitating, with key symptoms including fatigue, breathlessness, and brain fog. There is currently a lack of evidence-based treatments for this highly complex syndrome. There is a need for clinical trial platforms to rapidly evaluate nonpharmacological treatments to support affected individuals with symptom management. We co-produced a mixed methods feasibility study to evaluate a multi-arm digital decentralised clinical trial (DCT) platform to assess non-pharmacological interventions for Long COVID, using pacing interventions as an exemplar. The study demonstrated that the platform was able to successfully e-consent participants, randomise them into one of four intervention arms, capture baseline data, and capture outcomes relevant to a health economic evaluation. The study also highlighted several challenges, including difficulties with recruitment, imposter participants, and high attrition rates. We highlight how these challenges can potentially be mitigated to make a fully powered DCT more feasible.

Clinical decision support systems for maternity care: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: The use of Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) is increasing throughout healthcare and may be able to improve safety and outcomes in maternity care, but maternity care has key differences to other disciplines that complicate the use of CDSS. We aimed to identify evaluated CDSS and synthesise evidence of their impact on maternity care. Methods: We conducted a systematic review for articles published before 24th May 2024 that described i) CDSS that ii) investigated the impact of their use iii) in maternity settings. Medline, CINAHL, CENTRAL and HMIC were searched for articles relating to evaluations of CDSS in maternity settings, with forward- and backward-citation tracing conducted for included articles. Risk of bias was assessed using the Mixed Methods Assessment Tool, and CDSS were described according to the clinical problem, purpose, design, and technical environment. Quantitative results from articles reporting appropriate data were meta-analysed to estimate odds of a CDSS achieving its desired outcome using a multi-level random effects model, first by individual CDSS and then across all CDSS. PROSPERO ID: CRD42022348157. Findings: We screened 12,039 papers and included 87 articles describing 47 unique CDSS. 24 articles (28%) described randomised controlled trials, 30 (34%) described non-randomised interventional studies, 10 (11%) described mixed methods studies, 10 (11%) described qualitative studies, 7 (8%) described quantitative descriptive studies, and 7 (8%) described economic evaluations. 49 (56%) were in High-Income Countries and 38 (44%) in Low- and Middle-Income countries, with no CDSS trialled in both income categories. Meta-analysis of 35 included studies found an odds ratio for improved outcomes of 1.69 (95% confidence interval 1.24-2.30). There was substantial variation in effects, aims, CDSS types, context, study designs, and outcomes. Interpretation: Most CDSS evaluations showed improvements in outcomes, but there was heterogeneity in all aspects of design and evaluation of systems. CDSS are increasingly important in delivering healthcare, and Electronic Health Records and mHealth will increase their availability, but traditional epidemiological methods may be limited in guiding design and demonstrating effectiveness due to rapid CDSS development lifecycles and the complex systems in which they are embedded. Development methods that are attentive to context, such as Human Centred Design, will help to meet this need. Funding: None.

Pregnancy complications and autoimmune diseases in women: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy complications might lead to the development of autoimmune diseases in women. This review aims to summarise studies evaluating the association between pregnancy complications and the development of autoimmune diseases in women. METHODS: Medline, CINAHL, and Cochrane databases were searched up to January 2024. Nineteen pregnancy complications and 15 autoimmune conditions were included. Title, abstract, full-text screening, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed by two reviewers independently. Data were synthesised using narrative and quantitative methods. Results were presented using odds ratios (OR), relative risks (RR), incidence rate ratios (IRR), and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Thirty studies were included. One study reported composite exposure to pregnancy complications had a risk of any autoimmune disease RR 3.20 (2.90-3.51) compared to women without pregnancy complications. Women with hyperemesis gravidarum had a higher risk of developing coeliac disease (n = 1) IRR 1.98 (1.27-2.94), Crohn's disease (n = 1) IRR 1.61 (1.25-2.04), psoriasis (n = 1) IRR 1.33 (1.01-1.71), and rheumatoid arthritis (n = 2) IRR 1.35 (1.09-1.64). Miscarriage associated with subsequent diagnosis of Sjogren syndrome (n = 2) IRR 1.33 (1.06-2.81) and rheumatoid arthritis (n = 4) OR 1.11 (1.04-1.20). Gestational hypertension/preeclampsia was linked with the development of systemic sclerosis (n = 2) IRR 2.60 (1.10-4.60) and T1DM (n = 2) IRR 2.37 (2.09-2.68). Stillbirth associated with composite autoimmune conditions (n = 2) RR 5.82 (95% CI 4.87-6.81) and aIRR 1.25 (1.12-1.40). Postpartum psychosis was associated with autoimmune thyroid disease (n = 1) aIRR2.26 (1.61-2.90). CONCLUSIONS: Women with pregnancy complications subsequently had a higher risk of being diagnosed with autoimmune conditions. Whether this is due to pre-existing undiagnosed health conditions or being causally linked to pregnancy complications is not known.

The effect of bariatric surgery on diabetes related foot complications among patients with type 2 diabetes: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Bariatric surgery leads to considerable weight loss and improved glycaemic control and seems to have a favourable impact on diabetes related foot complications (DFC). OBJECTIVES: To assess the effect of bariatric surgery on diabetes related foot complications in patients with type 2 diabetes and determine whether DFC symptoms are improved after bariatric surgery. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. The primary outcome was the presence of DFC after bariatric surgery. The secondary outcome was the improvement of DFC after bariatric surgery among patients who already had DFC before surgery. RESULTS: There were nine studies showing the presence of DFC post bariatric surgery and six detailing the changes in DFC post bariatric surgery. Bariatric surgery was not associated with a lower risk of developing or worsening DFC compared to conventional medical treatment based on 4 randomised control trials (IR 0.87, 95 % CI, 0.26, 2.98), while from observational studies was associated with 51 % lower risk of DFC (IR 0.49, 95 % CI, 0.31, 0.77). Bariatric surgery was associated with improvement in diabetic neuropathy assessment parameters including toe tuning fork score, self-reported neuropathy symptoms, neuropathy symptom score, and neuropathy symptom profile. CONCLUSION: Bariatric surgery led to a greater reduction in developing or worsening DFC among patients with type 2 diabetes compared to medical treatment in observational studies, but not among RCTs. Bariatric surgery was associated with improvements in diabetic neuropathy related assessment parameters and symptoms. Bariatric surgery could be a promising treatment for patients with type 2 diabetes who are at high risk of DFC.

Exploring the preferred integration approach for HIV, diabetes and hypertension care and associated barriers and facilitators in Central Tanzania: An exploratory qualitative study.

Timely diagnosis and management of diabetes and hypertension among people living with HIV (PLWH) is imperative; however, many barriers exist within the current model of care for these comorbidities. We aimed to understand how HIV, diabetes, and hypertension care should be delivered and the associated barriers and facilitators for the preferred delivery approach. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 16 PLWH with comorbidities of diabetes and/or hypertension (referred to hereafter as non-communicable diseases [NCDs]), 10 healthcare professionals (HCPs) that provide care for NCDs, and 10 HCPs that provide care for HIV. Participants were recruited from two healthcare facilities in Dodoma, Tanzania and interviewed in Swahili. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim and translated into English. We used the differentiated service delivery building blocks as a framework to determine where, who, what and when care should be provided. We applied the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) to HCP transcripts to determine barriers and facilitators for the preferred integration approach. There was a consensus among participants that all care for NCDs should be provided for PLWH at HIV clinics (known as care and treatment centres [CTCs]) by either CTC doctors or NCD specialists. Participants preferred flexible follow-up care for NCDs and for it to be aligned with HIV follow-up appointments. The main barriers were mapped to the TDF domains of environmental context and resources, and social influences; the former included the lack of NCD medications, NCD diagnostic equipment, space, staff and guidelines whereas the latter included negative influences from peers and traditional healers. Several facilitators were mentioned regarding CTC HCPs' knowledge, skills, optimism and beliefs regarding their capabilities to care for PLWH with NCDs. The preferred integration approach should be tested, utilising the enabling factors described. The barriers described must be addressed with or without integration to achieve optimal care for PLWH with NCDs.

Automating incidence and prevalence analysis in open cohorts.

MOTIVATION: Data is increasingly used for improvement and research in public health, especially administrative data such as that collected in electronic health records. Patients enter and exit these typically open-cohort datasets non-uniformly; this can render simple questions about incidence and prevalence time-consuming and with unnecessary variation between analyses. We therefore developed methods to automate analysis of incidence and prevalence in open cohort datasets, to improve transparency, productivity and reproducibility of analyses. IMPLEMENTATION: We provide both a code-free set of rules for incidence and prevalence that can be applied to any open cohort, and a python Command Line Interface implementation of these rules requiring python 3.9 or later. GENERAL FEATURES: The Command Line Interface is used to calculate incidence and point prevalence time series from open cohort data. The ruleset can be used in developing other implementations or can be rearranged to form other analytical questions such as period prevalence. AVAILABILITY: The command line interface is freely available from https://github.com/THINKINGGroup/analogy_publication .

The optimal second-line therapy for older adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus: protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis using individual participant data (IPD).

BACKGROUND: Due to increasing life expectancy, almost half of people with type 2 diabetes are aged 65 years or over worldwide. When metformin alone does not control blood sugar, the choice of which second-line therapy to prescribe next is not clear from currently available evidence. The existence of frailty and comorbidities in older adults further increases the complexity of medical decision-making. As only a relatively small proportion of trials report results separately for older adults, the relative efficacy and safety of second-line therapies in older adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus are unknown and require further investigation. This individual participant data (IPD) network meta-analysis evaluates the relative efficacy and safety of second-line therapies on their own or in combination in older adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: All relevant published and unpublished trials will be identified. Studies published prior to 2015 will be identified from two previous comprehensive aggregate data network meta-analyses. Searches will be conducted in CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE from 1st January 2015 onwards, and in clinicaltrials.gov from inception. Randomised controlled trials with at least 100 estimated older adults (≥ 65 years) receiving at least 24 weeks of intervention that assess the effects of glucose-lowering drugs on mortality, glycemia, vascular and other comorbidities outcomes, and quality of life will be eligible. The screening and data extraction process will be conducted independently by two researchers. The quality of studies will be assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool 2. Anonymised IPD of all eligible trials will be requested via clinical trial portals or by contacting the principal investigators or sponsors. Received data will be reanalysed where necessary to standardise outcome metrics. Network meta-analyses will be performed to determine the relative effectiveness of therapies. DISCUSSION: With the increasing number of older adults with type 2 diabetes worldwide, an IPD network meta-analysis using data from all eligible trials will provide new insights into the optimal choices of second-line antidiabetic drugs to improve patient management and reduce unnecessary adverse events and the subsequent risk of comorbidities in older adults. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42021272686.

Thromboembolic events and vascular dementia in patients with atrial fibrillation and low apparent stroke risk.

The prevention of thromboembolism in atrial fibrillation (AF) is typically restricted to patients with specific risk factors and ignores outcomes such as vascular dementia. This population-based cohort study used electronic healthcare records from 5,199,994 primary care patients (UK; 2005-2020). A total of 290,525 (5.6%) had a diagnosis of AF and were aged 40-75 years, of which 36,340 had no history of stroke, a low perceived risk of stroke based on clinical risk factors and no oral anticoagulant prescription. Matching was performed for age, sex and region to 117,298 controls without AF. During 5 years median follow-up (831,005 person-years), incident stroke occurred in 3.8% with AF versus 1.5% control (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 2.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.91-2.21; P < 0.001), arterial thromboembolism 0.3% versus 0.1% (HR 2.39, 95% CI 1.83-3.11; P < 0.001), and all-cause mortality 8.9% versus 5.0% (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.38-1.50; P < 0.001). AF was associated with all-cause dementia (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04-1.32; P = 0.010), driven by vascular dementia (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.33-2.12; P < 0.001) rather than Alzheimer's disease (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.70-1.03; P = 0.09). Death and thromboembolic outcomes, including vascular dementia, are substantially increased in patients with AF despite a lack of conventional stroke risk factors.

Diagnostic accuracy of digital technologies compared with 12-lead ECG in the diagnosis of atrial fibrillation in adults: A protocol for a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia in the world. AF increases the risk of stroke 5-fold, though the risk can be reduced with appropriate treatment. Therefore, early diagnosis is imperative but remains a global challenge. In low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), a lack of diagnostic equipment and under-resourced healthcare systems generate further barriers. The rapid development of digital technologies that are capable of diagnosing AF remotely and cost-effectively could prove beneficial for LMICs. However, evidence is lacking on what digital technologies exist and how they compare in regards to diagnostic accuracy. We aim to systematically review the diagnostic accuracy of all digital technologies capable of AF diagnosis. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase and Web of Science will be searched for eligible studies. Free text terms will be combined with corresponding index terms where available and searches will not be limited by language nor time of publication. Cohort or cross-sectional studies comprising adult (≥18 years) participants will be included. Only studies that use a 12-lead ECG as the reference test (comparator) and report outcomes of sensitivity, specificity, the diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) or the positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) will be included (or if they provide sufficient data to calculate these outcomes). Two reviewers will independently assess articles for inclusion, extract data using a piloted tool and assess risk of bias using the QUADAS-2 tool. The feasibility of a meta-analysis will be determined by assessing heterogeneity across the studies, grouped by index device, diagnostic threshold and setting. If a meta-analysis is feasible for any index device, pooled sensitivity and specificity will be calculated using a random effect model and presented in forest plots. DISCUSSION: The findings of our review will provide a comprehensive synthesis of the diagnostic accuracy of available digital technologies capable for diagnosing AF. Thus, this review will aid in the identification of which devices could be further trialed and implemented, particularly in a LMIC setting, to improve the early diagnosis of AF. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Systematic review registration: PROSPERO registration number is CRD42021290542. https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42021290542.

Prevalence, incidence and healthcare burden of eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis in the UK.

Background: Eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (EGPA) is a rare but serious disease characterised by the combination of small-to-medium vessel vasculitis, blood and tissue eosinophilia, and asthma and/or sinonasal disease. This study estimated the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed EGPA in the United Kingdom (UK), and described the demographics, clinical characteristics and healthcare resource utilisation (HCRU) of this population. Methods: This retrospective longitudinal study of patients with newly diagnosed EGPA (index) (2005-2019) used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink AURUM and Hospital Episode Statistics databases. The primary outcomes were the annual prevalence (2005-2019) and incidence (2006-2019) of EGPA, and secondary outcomes included patient demographics and clinical characteristics, and HCRU in the year pre- and post-index (diagnosis). Results: Populations of patients with EGPA comprised 940 prevalent cases and 502 incident cases, of which 377 were linked to Hospital Episode Statistics. EGPA prevalence increased from 22.7 to 45.6 cases per 1 000 000 (2005-2019), driven by patients aged ≥18 years. Incidence ranged from 2.3 to 4.0 per 1 000 000 person-years (2006-2019). Pre-index, the most common clinical symptoms were respiratory related, and the most common comorbidities were asthma (80.6%) and nasal polyps (32.1%). Post-index, 19.1% had an EGPA-related inpatient stay (median length of stay 11.0 days) and 38.7% had five or more oral corticosteroid (OCS) prescriptions with a mean OCS possession ratio per patient of 47.0%. Conclusions: Although EGPA incidence in the UK remains relatively stable, prevalence is increasing, and HCRU and OCS use remain frequent, suggesting considerable healthcare burden for patients with EGPA.

Risk factors for asthma-related hospital and intensive care admissions in children, adolescents and adults: a cohort study using primary and secondary care data.

BACKGROUND: Asthma remains a common cause of hospital admissions across the life course. We estimated the contribution of key risk factors to asthma-related hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions in children, adolescents and adults. METHODS: This was a UK-based cohort study using linked primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum) and secondary care (Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care) data. Patients were eligible if they were aged 5 years and older and had been diagnosed with asthma. This included 90 989 children aged 5-11 years, 114 927 adolescents aged 12-17 years and 1 179 410 adults aged 18 years or older. The primary outcome was asthma-related hospital admissions from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2019. The secondary outcome was asthma-related ICU admissions. Incidence rate ratios adjusted for demographic and clinical risk factors were estimated using negative binomial models. Population attributable fraction (PAF) was estimated for modifiable risk factors. RESULTS: Younger age groups, females and those from ethnic minority and lower socioeconomic backgrounds had an increased risk of asthma-related hospital admissions. Increasing medication burden, including excessive use of short-acting bronchodilators, was also strongly associated with the primary outcome. Similar risk factors were observed for asthma-related ICU admissions. The key potentially modifiable or treatable risk factors were smoking in adolescents and adults (PAF 6.8%, 95% CI 0.9% to 12.3% and 4.3%, 95% CI 3.0% to 5.7%, respectively), and obesity (PAF 23.3%, 95% CI 20.5% to 26.1%), depression (11.1%, 95% CI 9.1% to 13.1%), gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (2.3%, 95% CI 1.2% to 3.4%), anxiety (2.0%, 95% CI 0.5% to 3.6%) and chronic rhinosinusitis (0.8%, 95% CI 0.3% to 1.3%) in adults. CONCLUSIONS: There are significant sociodemographic inequalities in the rates of asthma-related hospital and ICU admissions. Treating age-specific modifiable risk factors should be considered an integral part of asthma management, which could potentially reduce the rate of avoidable hospital admissions.

Trends in the prevalence and pharmacological management of migraine during pregnancy in the UK, 2000-2018.

BACKGROUND: Migraine is common in women of reproductive age. This study aimed to (1) describe the prevalence of migraine in pregnant women in the UK, (2) identify drugs commonly prescribed for migraine during pregnancy and (3) identify characteristics associated with being prescribed medication for migraine during pregnancy. METHODS: The Clinical Practice Research Datalink pregnancy register, a database of pregnancy episodes identified in anonymised primary care health records, was used.Crude and age-standardised prevalence of migraine during pregnancy and the proportion of women with migraine prescribed drugs used for migraine management were calculated for each year between 2000 and 2018.Logistic regression was used to describe the relationship between patient characteristics and being prescribed migraine medication during pregnancy. RESULTS: 1 377 053 pregnancies were included, of which 187 328 were in women with a history of migraine. The age-adjusted prevalence increased from 11.4% in 2000 to 17.2% in 2018. There was an increase in the rates of prescription for numerous medications for the management of migraine.Older women (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.41 (1.20 to 1.66)), women of black (aOR 1.40 (1.32 to 1.48)) and South Asian ethnicity (aOR 1.48 (1.38 to 1.59)), those living in the most deprived areas (aOR 1.60 (1.54 to 1.66)), women who were obese (aOR 1.39 (1.35 to 1.43)), smokers (aOR 1.15 (1.12 to 1.18)) and those with comorbid conditions were more likely to receive a prescription during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of recorded migraine have increased over the past two decades as well as rates of prescribing in women with migraine. Higher prescribing rates are seen in certain groups, which has the potential to exacerbate health inequalities.

Individualized prevention of proton pump inhibitor related adverse events by risk stratification.

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are commonly used for gastric acid-related disorders, but their safety profile and risk stratification for high-burden diseases need further investigation. Analyzing over 2 million participants from five prospective cohorts from the US, the UK, and China, we found that PPI use correlated with increased risk of 15 leading global diseases, such as ischemic heart disease, diabetes, respiratory infections, and chronic kidney disease. These associations showed dose-response relationships and consistency across different PPI types. PPI-related absolute risks increased with baseline risks, with approximately 82% of cases occurring in those at the upper 40% of the baseline predicted risk, and only 11.5% of cases occurring in individuals at the lower 50% of the baseline risk. While statistical association does not necessarily imply causation, its potential safety concerns suggest that personalized use of PPIs through risk stratification might guide appropriate decision-making for patients, clinicians, and the public.

Increased risk of cardiovascular and renal disease, and diabetes for all women diagnosed with gestational diabetes mellitus in New Zealand-A national retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Gestational diabetes mellitus increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. The aim of this study is to compare cardiometabolic and renal outcomes for all women in New Zealand with gestational diabetes (2001-2010) with women without diabetes, 10-20 years following delivery. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study, utilizing a national dataset providing information for all women who gave birth between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2010 (n = 604 398). Adolescent girls <15 years, women ≥50 years and women with prepregnancy diabetes were excluded. In total 11 459 women were diagnosed with gestational diabetes and 11 447 were matched (for age and year of delivery) with 57 235 unexposed (control) women. A national hospital dataset was used to compare primary outcomes until 31 May 2021. RESULTS: After controlling for ethnicity, women with gestational diabetes were significantly more likely than control women to develop diabetes-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 20.06 and 95% confidence interval (CI) 18.46-21.79; a first cardiovascular event 2.19 (1.86-2.58); renal disease 6.34 (5.35-7.51) and all-cause mortality 1.55 (1.31-1.83), all p values <.0001. The HR and 95% CI remained similar after controlling for significant covariates: diabetes 18.89 (17.36-20.56), cardiovascular events 1.79 (1.52-2.12), renal disease 5.42 (4.55-6.45), and all-cause mortality 1.44 (1.21-1.70). When time-dependent diabetes was added to the model, significance remained for cardiovascular events 1.33 (1.10-1.61), p = .003 and renal disease 2.33 (1.88-2.88), p < .0001 but not all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Women diagnosed with gestational diabetes have an increased risk of adverse cardiometabolic and renal outcomes. Findings highlight the importance of follow-up screening for diabetes, cardiovascular risk factors, and renal disease.

Using Repeated Measurements to Predict Cardiovascular Risk in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

The QRISK cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment model is not currently optimized for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We aim to identify if the abundantly available repeatedly measured data for patients with T2D improves the predictive capability of QRISK to support the decision-making process regarding CVD prevention in patients with T2DM. We identified patients with T2DM aged 25 to 85, not on statin treatment and without pre-existing CVD from the IQVIA Medical Research Data United Kingdom primary care database and then followed them up until the first diagnosis of CVD, ischemic heart disease, or stroke/transient ischemic attack. We included traditional, nontraditional risk factors and relevant treatments for our analysis. We then undertook a Cox's hazards model accounting for time-dependent covariates to estimate the hazard rates for each risk factor and calculated a 10-year risk score. Models were developed for males and females separately. We tested the performance of our models using validation data and calculated discrimination and calibration statistics. The study included 198,835 (180,143 male with 11,976 outcomes and 90,466 female with 8,258 outcomes) patients. The 10-year predicted survival probabilities for females was 0.87 (0.87 to 0.87), whereas the observed survival estimates from the Kaplan-Meier curve for all female models was 0.87 (0.86 to 0.87). The predicted and observed survival estimates for males were 0.84 (0.84 to 0.84) and 0.84 (0.83 to 0.84) respectively. The Harrell's C-index of all female models and all male models were 0.71 and 0.69 respectively. We found that including time-varying repeated measures, only mildly improved CVD risk prediction for T2DM patients in comparison to the current practice standard. We advocate for further research using time-varying data to identify if the involvement of further covariates may improve the accuracy of currently accepted prediction models.

Post-hospitalisation asthma management in primary care: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines recommend that patients admitted to hospital for asthma attacks are reviewed in primary care following hospital discharge. AIM: To evaluate asthma management in primary care following a hospital admission for asthma and its associations with patient characteristics. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective cohort study using English primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database and linked Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care data. METHOD: Patients with asthma aged ≥5 years who had at least one asthma-related hospital admission from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2019 were included. The primary outcome was a composite of any of the following delivered in primary care within 28 days from hospital discharge: asthma review, asthma management plan, asthma medication prescriptions, demonstration of inhaler technique, or smoking cessation counselling. The association between patient characteristics and delivery of clinical care was assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: The study included 17 457 patients. A total of 10 515 (60.2%) patients received the primary outcome within 28 days of hospital discharge. There were 2311 (13.2%) who received an asthma review, 1459 (8.4%) an asthma management plan, 9996 (57.3%) an asthma medication, 1500 (8.6%) a demonstration of inhaler technique, and 52 (1.2% of smokers) had smoking cessation counselling. Patients from Black ethnic minority groups received less of this care (27%-54% lower odds, depending on age). However, short-acting bronchodilator prescriptions in the previous year were associated with an increased likelihood of the primary outcome. CONCLUSION: A significant proportion of patients do not receive timely follow-up in primary care following asthma-related admissions to hospital, particularly among Black ethnic minority groups.

Healthcare resource utilisation and economic burden attributable to back pain in primary care: A matched case-control study in the United Kingdom.

Objective: Incremental healthcare costs attributed to back pain, and characterisation by patient and clinical factors have rarely been documented. This study aimed to assess annual healthcare resource utilisation and costs associated with back pain in primary care. Methods: Using the IQVIA Medical Research Data (IMRD), patients with back pain were identified (study period: 01 January 2006 to 31 December 2015) using diagnostic records and analgesics prescriptions (n = 133,341), and propensity score matched 1:1 to patients without back pain. The annual incremental costs of back pain associated with consultations and prescriptions were estimated and extrapolated to a national level. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by restricting the study population to the most recent diagnosis of back pain. Variations in cost were assessed stratified by gender, age-groups, deprivation, and comorbidity categories. Results: The mean age was 57 years, and 62% were females in both the case and control groups. The total incremental healthcare costs associated with back pain was £32.5 million in 2015 (£35.9 million in 2020), with per-patient cost of £244 (£265 in 2020) per year. On a national level, this translated to an estimated £3.2 billion (£3.5 billion in 2020). Eighty percent of the costs were attributed to consultations; and female gender, older age, higher deprivation, and higher comorbidity were all associated with increased mean healthcare costs of patients with back pain. Conclusion: Our findings confirm the substantial healthcare costs attributed to back pain, even with primacy care costs only. The data also revealed significant cost variations across socio-demographic and clinical factors.

Prodromal symptoms of rheumatoid arthritis in a primary care database: variation by ethnicity and socioeconomic status.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether prodromal symptoms of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), as recorded in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum (CPRD) database of English primary care records, differ by ethnicity and socioeconomic status. METHODS: A cross-sectional study to determine the coding of common symptoms (≥0.1% in the sample) in the 24 months preceding RA diagnosis in CPRD Aurum, recorded between January 1st 2004 to May 1st 2022. Eligible cases were adults with a code for RA diagnosis. For each symptom, a logistic regression was performed with the symptom as dependent variable, and ethnicity and socioeconomic status as independent variables. Results were adjusted for sex, age, BMI, and smoking status. White ethnicity and the highest socioeconomic quintile were comparators. RESULTS: In total, 70115 cases were eligible for inclusion, of which 66.4% female. Twenty-one symptoms were coded in > 0.1% of cases so were included in the analysis. Patients of South Asian ethnicity had higher frequency of codes for several symptoms, with the largest difference by odds ratio being muscle cramps (OR 1.71, 1.44-2.57) and shoulder pain (1.44, 1.25-1.66). Patients of Black ethnicity had higher prevalence of several codes including unintended weight loss (2.02, 1.25-3.28) and ankle pain (1.51, 1.02-2.23). Low socioeconomic status was associated with morning stiffness (1.74, 1.08-2.80) and falls (1.37, 2.03-1.82). CONCLUSION: There are significant differences in coded symptoms between demographic groups, which must be considered in clinical practice in diverse populations and to avoid algorithmic bias in prediction tools derived from routinely collected healthcare data.