Gendered Parenthood-Employment Gaps from Midlife: A Demographic Perspective Across Three Different Welfare Systems.

Women's labor force participation has increased in Western countries, but gender gaps remain, especially among parents. Using a novel comparative perspective, we assess women's and men's employment trajectories from midlife onward by parity and education. We provide insights into the gendered parenthood-employment gaps examining the long-term implications of parenthood beyond the core childbearing ages by decomposing years lived between ages 40-74, in years of employment, joblessness, and retirement. Using multistate incidence-based life tables, we compare different cultural and institutional contexts: Finland, Italy, and the USA. Our results document large cross-national variation, with education playing a key role. In Finland, the number of years of employment increases with parity for women and men, and the gender gap is small; in the USA, the relationship between parity and years of employment is relatively flat, although a gender gap emerges among those with two or more children; in Italy, the number of years of employment decreases sharply for women as parity increases, while it increases for men. Notably, education has a similar positive impact on years of employment across all groups in Finland. In contrast, in the USA and Italy, the gender gap is only half as large among highly educated mothers as it is among low educated mothers. The employment trajectories of childless women and men differ greatly across countries.

Cross-sectional average length of life by parity: Country comparisons.

This study aims to present an alternative measure of fertility-cross-sectional average length of life by parity (CALP)-which: (1) is a period fertility indicator using all available cohort information; (2) captures the dynamics of parity transitions; and (3) links information on fertility quantum and timing together as part of a single phenomenon. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, we calculate CALP for 12 countries in the Global North. Our results show that women spend the longest time at parity zero on average, and in countries where women spend comparatively longer time at parity zero, they spend fewer years at parities one and two. The analysis is extended by decomposing the differences in CALPs between Sweden and the United States, revealing age- and cohort-specific contributions to population-level differences in parity-specific fertility patterns. The decomposition illustrates how high teenage fertility in the United States dominates the differences between these two countries in the time spent at different parities.

Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010.

In the 2010s, fertility has declined in the Nordic countries, most strikingly in Finland, and first births drive the decline. It remains unclear whether this decline results from decreased fertility within unions, changing union dynamics, or both. Thus, we investigated changes in the union-first birth dynamics from 2000 through 2018 in Finland using full-coverage population register data and an incidence-based multistate model. To do so, we calculated the yearly age-specific transition probabilities across states of single, cohabitation, marriage, and first births among 15- to 45-year-old childless men and women. We found lower fertility rates in unions after 2010, increasing dissolution rates amongst cohabiting couples, and long-term declines in the transition to marriage. Counterfactual simulations showed that, for the decline in first births since 2010, fertility within unions matters more (three-quarters) than union dynamics (one-quarter): that is, lower fertility in cohabitating and married individuals explained 42% and 13% of the decline, respectively, and decreasing fertility rates among couples entering cohabitation explained a further 17%. Decreasing marriage (19%) and cohabitation rates (2-4%) as well as higher union dissolution rates (6%) explained a smaller share of the first birth decline. The decline in first births was somewhat sharper among the lower social strata, but across strata the decreasing first birth transitions in unions explained most of the decline. To conclude, while changing union dynamics provide a partial explanation, postponing or foregoing fertility within unions represents the primary reason for the fertility decline. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-022-09605-8.

The gendered impacts of delayed parenthood: A dynamic analysis of young adulthood.

Young adulthood is a dynamic and demographically dense stage in the life course. This poses a challenge for research on the socioeconomic consequences of parenthood timing, which most often focuses on women. We chart the dynamics of delayed parenthood and its implications for educational and labor market trajectories for young adult women and men using a novel longitudinal analysis approach, the parametric g-formula. This method allows the estimation of both population-averaged effects (among all women and men) and average treatment effects (among mothers and fathers). Based on high-quality data from Finnish registers, we find that later parenthood exacerbates the educational advantage of women in comparison to men and attenuates the income advantage of men in comparison to women across young adult ages. Gender differences in the consequences of delayed parenthood on labor market trajectories are largely not explained by changes in educational trajectories. Moreover, at the time of entering parenthood, delayed parenthood improves the incomes of fathers more than those of mothers, thereby exacerbating existing gender differences. The results provide population-level evidence on how the delay of parenthood has contributed to the strengthening of women's educational position relative to that of men. Further, the findings on greater increases in fathers' than mothers' incomes at the time of entering parenthood, as followed by postponement, may help explain why progress in achieving gender equality in the division of paid and unpaid work in families has been slow.

Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries.

With historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries, raising the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-30s. This is a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980-2010. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from 2 children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility (below 1.6), and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised.

Cross-Sectional Average Length of Life Childless.

Increases in the average age at first birth and in the proportion of women remaining childless have extended the total number of years that women spend childless during their reproductive lifetime in several countries. To quantify the number of years that reproductive-age women live without children, we introduce the cross-sectional average length of life childless (CALC). This measure includes all the age-specific first-birth information available for the cohorts present at time t; it is a period measure based on cohort data. Using the Human Fertility Database, CALC is calculated for the year 2015 for all countries with long enough histories of fertility available. Results show that women in the majority of the studied countries spend, on average, more than half of their reproductive lives childless. Furthermore, the difference between CALCs in two countries can be decomposed to give a clear visualization of how each cohort contributes to the difference in the duration of the length of childless life in those populations. Our illustration of the decomposition shows that (1) in recent years, female cohorts in Japan and Spain at increasingly younger ages have been contributing to more years of childless life compared with those in Sweden, (2) the United States continues to represent an exception among the high-income countries with a low expectation for childless life of women, and (3) Hungary experienced a strong period effect of the recent Great Recession. These examples show that CALC and its decomposition can provide insights into first-birth patterns.

Educational Differences in Cohort Fertility Across Sub-national Regions in Europe.

Educational differences in female cohort fertility vary strongly across high-income countries and over time, but knowledge about how educational fertility differentials play out at the sub-national regional level is limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, as regionally varying contextual conditions may affect fertility. This study provides for the first time for a large number of European countries a comprehensive account of educational differences in the cohort fertility rate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise data from population registers, censuses, and large-sample surveys for 15 countries to measure women's completed fertility by educational level and region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educational differences in CFRs and levels of economic development, we link our data to regional GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in the regional fertility estimates. We document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable regional variation in the gradient. The steepness of the gradient is inversely related to the economic development level. It is steepest in the least developed regions and close to zero in the most developed regions. This tendency is observed within countries as well as across all regions of all countries. Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women's fertility, suggest that higher levels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more in-depth sub-national-level fertility analyses by education.

All-time low period fertility in Finland: Demographic drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications.

The ongoing period fertility decline in the Nordic countries is particularly strong in Finland, where the total fertility rate (TFR) reached an all-time low of 1.41 in 2018. We analyse the decrease in Finland's TFR in 2010-17, and assess its consequences for cohort fertility using complementary approaches. Decomposition of this fertility decline shows that first births and women aged <30 are making the largest contributions. However, women aged 30-39 are also, for the first time in decades, experiencing a sustained fertility decline. Tempo adjustments to the TFR suggest that quantum change is part of the decline. Several forecasting methods indicate that cohort fertility is likely to decline from the long-lasting level of 1.85-1.95 to 1.75 or lower among women born in the mid-1980s. Without an exceptionally strong recovery in fertility, Finnish cohort fertility is likely to decline to levels currently observed among countries with very low fertility.

Education, Other Socioeconomic Characteristics Across the Life Course, and Fertility Among Finnish Men.

The level of education and other adult socioeconomic characteristics of men are known to associate with their fertility, but early-life socioeconomic characteristics may also be related. We studied how men's adult and early-life socioeconomic characteristics are associated with their eventual fertility and whether the differences therein by educational level are explained or mediated by other socioeconomic characteristics. The data on men born in 1940-1950 (N = 37,082) were derived from the 1950 Finnish census, which is linked to later registers. Standard and sibling fixed-effects Poisson and logistic regression models were used. Education and other characteristics were positively associated with the number of children, largely stemming from a higher likelihood of a first birth among the more socioeconomically advantaged men. The educational gradient in the number of children was not explained by early socioeconomic or other characteristics shared by brothers, but occupational position and income in adulthood mediated approximately half of the association. Parity-specific differences existed: education and many other socioeconomic characteristics predicted the likelihood of a first birth more strongly than that of a second birth, and the mediating role of occupational position and income was also strongest for first births. Relatively small differences were found in the likelihood of a third birth. In men, education is positively associated with eventual fertility after controlling for early socioeconomic and other characteristics shared by brothers. Selective entry into fatherhood based on economic provider potential may contribute considerably to educational differentials in the number of children among men.

Number of children and later-life mortality among Finns born 1938-50.

We investigated the association between number of offspring and later-life mortality of Finnish men and women born 1938-50, and whether the association was explained by living conditions in own childhood and adulthood, chronic conditions, fertility timing, and unobserved characteristics common to siblings. We used a longitudinal 1950 census sample to estimate mortality at ages 50-72. Relative to parents of two children, all-cause mortality is highest among childless men and women, and elevated among those with one child, independently of observed confounders. Fixed-effect models, which control for unobserved characteristics shared by siblings, clearly support these findings among men. Cardiovascular mortality is higher among men with no, one, or at least four children than among those with two. Living conditions in adulthood contribute to the association between the number of children and mortality to a greater extent than childhood background, and chronic conditions contribute to the excess mortality of the childless.

Is young fatherhood causally related to midlife mortality? A sibling fixed-effect study in Finland.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that young fatherhood is associated with higher later-life mortality. It is unclear whether the association is credible, in the sense that mortality and young fatherhood appear to be associated because both are determined by family-related environmental, socioeconomic and genetic characteristics. METHODS: We used a household-based 10% sample drawn from the 1950 Finnish census to estimate all-cause mortality of fathers born during 1940-1950. The fathers were followed from age 45 until death, or the end of age 54. We used a standard Cox model and a sibling fixed-effects Cox model to examine whether the effect of young fatherhood was independent of observed adulthood characteristics and unobserved early-life characteristics shared by brothers. RESULTS: Men who had their first child before the age of 22 or at ages 22-24 had higher mortality as compared with their brothers who had their first child at the median or mean age of 25-26. Men who had their first child later at ages 30-44 had lower mortality than their brothers who had a first child before the age of 25. The pattern of results from a standard model was similar to that obtained from a fixed-effects sibling model. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest a causal effect of young fatherhood on mortality and highlight the need to support young fathers in their family life to improve health behaviours and health.

Renal tumour anatomical characteristics and functional outcome after partial nephrectomy.

OBJECTIVE: Anatomical features of renal tumours may be useful in predicting glomerular filtration rate (GFR) after partial nephrectomy. In this study, anatomical classification systems (ACSs) were compared to predict changes in renal function after surgery. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A group of 294 patients with T1 renal tumours receiving partial nephrectomy between January 2006 and June 2013 were identified from the institutional kidney tumour database. Preoperative images from computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging were reviewed to assess diameter, PADUA (preoperative aspects and dimensions used for an anatomical) classification score, RENAL (radius, exophytic/endophytic properties of the tumour, nearness of tumour deepest portion to the collecting system or sinus, anterior/posterior descriptor and location relative to polar lines) nephrometry score, centrality index (C index) and renal tumour invasion index (RTII). GFR was estimated using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation preoperatively and 3 months after operation. Linear and logistic regression were applied as statistical methods. RESULTS: Mean tumour diameter was 3.0 ± 2.2 cm (range 1.0-7.0 cm). GFR was 85 ± 22 ml/min/1.73 m² before the operation and 77 ± 21 ml/min/1.73 m² (-8% change) 3 months after the operation. In univariate linear regression, the percentage change in GFR was weakly but statistically significantly associated with surgical approach (p = 0.04), indication for nephron sparing (p = 0.02), preoperative GFR (p < 0.001), PADUA (p = 0.02), RENAL (p = 0.01) and RTII (p = 0.003). In multivariate logistic regression analysis among patients with tumours 3 cm or larger, PADUA (odds ratio 1.55, p = 0.021) and RTII (odds ratio 3.87, p = 0.037) predicted at least a 20% reduction in GFR. CONCLUSIONS: Renal tumour ACSs may be clinically useful in predicting changes in renal function after partial nephrectomy in patients with larger tumours. The performance of RTII is equal to that of other ACSs in predicting changes in GFR.

Effect of family background on the educational gradient in lifetime fertility of Finnish women born 1940-50.

An inverse association between education and fertility in women has been found in many societies but the causes of this association remain inadequately understood. We investigated whether observed and unobserved family-background characteristics explained educational differences in lifetime fertility among 35,212 Finnish women born in 1940-50. Poisson and logistic regression models, adjusted for measured socio-demographic family-background characteristics and for unobserved family characteristics shared by siblings, were used to analyse the relationship between education and the number of children, having any children, and fertility beyond the first child. The woman's education and the socio-economic position of the family were negatively associated with fertility. Observed family characteristics moderately (3-28 per cent) explained the association between education and fertility, and results from models including unobserved characteristics supported this interpretation. The remaining association may represent a causal relationship between education and fertility or joint preferences that form independently of our measures of background.

Educational differences in completed fertility: a behavioral genetic study of Finnish male and female twins.

Despite the large body of research on educational differences in fertility, how genetic and environmental influences may contribute to educational differences in completed fertility is not well understood. This study examines the association between educational level and completed fertility in a sample of Finnish male and female twins born between 1950 and 1957 with register-based fertility follow-up until 2009. The results show that poorly educated men and highly educated women are least likely to have any children and have lower completed fertility in general. Behavioral genetics analysis suggests that the association between education and having any children in both sexes is influenced by factors shared by co-twins and that these factors are genetic rather than common environmental. No evidence of a causal pathway between education and having any children independent of these shared influences is found. These findings suggest that familial factors may play a role in the process through which educational differences in completed fertility are formed.

Height, age at first birth, and lifetime reproductive success: a prospective cohort study of Finnish male and female twins.

The associations between height and reproductive success in humans have attracted long-time scientific interest, but in addition to rather mixed previous results, little is still known about the background mechanisms of these associations. We analyzed the association of adult height with age at first birth and lifetime reproductive success using a twin study design that is able to optimally take into account family background and estimate the contributions of genetic and environmental factors. Information on live births as of June 2009 for 7,830 Finnish twins born 1950-1957 was extracted from the national population register. We found evidence for non-linear associations in men, as men in the third sex-specific height quintile had the highest probability of having one to two children, or three or more children at individual level analyses, and also to have any children when analyzing twin pairs discordant for height. Furthermore, the probability of having a spouse was highest in the third height category in men. Short stature was associated with earlier age at first birth in females, explained by correlated genetic factors, but not with lifetime number of children or having a spouse. Our results suggest that average stature may give some advantage for reproduction in males. In females, genetic factors explained the association between short stature and young age at first birth, which may suggest the role of hormonal factors.