Projected loss of brown macroalgae and seagrasses with global environmental change.

Although many studies predict extensive future biodiversity loss and redistribution in the terrestrial realm, future changes in marine biodiversity remain relatively unexplored. In this work, we model global shifts in one of the most important marine functional groups-ecosystem-structuring macrophytes-and predict substantial end-of-century change. By modelling the future distribution of 207 brown macroalgae and seagrass species at high temporal and spatial resolution under different climate-change projections, we estimate that by 2100, local macrophyte diversity will decline by 3-4% on average, with 17 to 22% of localities losing at least 10% of their macrophyte species. The current range of macrophytes will be eroded by 5-6%, and highly suitable macrophyte habitat will be substantially reduced globally (78-96%). Global macrophyte habitat will shift among marine regions, with a high potential for expansion in polar regions.

Climate cascades affect coastal Antarctic seafloor ecosystem functioning.

Polar seafloor ecosystems are changing rapidly and dramatically, challenging previously held paradigms of extreme dynamical stability. Warming-related declines in polar sea ice are expected to alter fluxes of phytoplankton and under-ice algae to the seafloor. Yet, how changes in food flux cascade through to seafloor communities and functions remains unclear. We leveraged natural spatial and temporal gradients in summertime sea ice extent to better understand the trajectories and implications of climate-related change in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. McMurdo Sound was expected to be one of the last coastal marine environments on Earth to be affected by planetary warming, but the situation may be changing. Comparing satellite observations of selected coastal sites in McMurdo Sound between 2010-2017 and 2002-2009 revealed more ice-free days per year, and shorter distances to open water during the warmest months each year, in the more recent period. Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) climate indices peaked concurrently between 2014 and 2017 when sea ice breakouts in McMurdo Sound were most spatially and temporally extensive. Increases in sediment chlorophyll a and phaeophytin content (indicating increased deposition of detrital algal food material) were recorded during 2014-2017 at three coastal study sites in McMurdo Sound following the major sea ice breakouts. Soft-sediment seafloor ecosystem metabolism (measured in benthic incubation chambers as dissolved oxygen and inorganic nutrient fluxes) was correlated with sediment algal pigment concentration. Epifaunal invertebrate density, particularly opportunistic sessile suspension feeders, and infaunal community composition also shifted with increased food supply. The ecological characteristics and functions measured at the food-poor sites shifted towards those observed at richer sites at a surprisingly fast pace. These results indicate the sensitivity of the benthos and shed light on Antarctic marine trophic cascades and trajectories of response of iconic high-latitude seafloor habitats to a warming climate.