Seasonality of the incidence of bronchiolitis in infants — Brazil, 2016-2022: An interrupted time-series analysis / Sazonalidade da incidência de bronquiolite em lactentes — Brasil, 2016-2022: Uma análise de série temporal interrompida

ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate the seasonality of acute bronchiolitis in Brazil during the 2020-2022 season and compare it with the previous seasons. Methods: Data from the incidence of hospitalizations due to acute bronchiolitis in infants <1 year of age were obtained from the Department of Informatics of the Brazilian Public Health database for the period between 2016 and 2022. These data were also analyzed by macro-regions of Brazil (North, Northeast, Southeast, South, and Midwest). To describe seasonal and trend characteristics over time, we used the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages Model. Results: Compared to the pre-COVID-19 period, the incidence of hospitalizations related to acute bronchiolitis decreased by 97% during non-pharmacological interventions (March 2020 - August 2021) but increased by 95% after non-pharmacological interventions relaxation (September 2021 - December 2022), resulting in a 16% overall increase. During the pre-COVID-19 period, hospitalizations for acute bronchiolitis followed a seasonal pattern, which was disrupted in 2020-2021 but recovered in 2022, with a peak occurring in May, approximately 4% higher than the pre-COVID-19 peak. Conclusions: This study underscores the significant influence of COVID-19 interventions on acute bronchiolitis hospitalizations in Brazil. The restoration of a seasonal pattern in 2022 highlights the interplay between public health measures and respiratory illness dynamics in young children.

RESUMO Objetivo: Avaliar a sazonalidade da bronquiolite aguda no Brasil durante a temporada 2020-2022 e compará-la com a das temporadas anteriores. Métodos: Os dados de incidência de internações por bronquiolite aguda em lactentes <1 ano de idade foram obtidos do Departamento de Informática da base de dados da Saúde Pública Brasileira para o período entre 2016 e 2022. Esses dados também foram analisados por macrorregiões do Brasil (Norte, Nordeste, Sudeste, Sul e Centro-Oeste). Para descrever características sazonais e de tendência ao longo do tempo, utilizamos o Modelo de Médias Móveis Integradas Autorregressivas Sazonais. Resultados: Em comparação com o período pré-COVID-19, a incidência de hospitalizações relacionadas com bronquiolite aguda diminuiu 97% durante as intervenções não farmacológicas (março de 2020 - agosto de 2021), mas aumentou 95% após a flexibilização das intervenções não farmacológicas (setembro de 2021 - dezembro de 2022), resultando no aumento geral de 16%. Durante o período pré-COVID-19, as hospitalizações por bronquiolite aguda seguiram um padrão sazonal, que foi interrompido em 2020-2021, mas recuperaram-se em 2022, com um pico ocorrido em maio, aproximadamente 4% superior ao pico pré-COVID-19. Conclusões: Este estudo ressalta a influência significativa das intervenções contra a COVID-19 nas hospitalizações por bronquiolite aguda no Brasil. A restauração de um padrão sazonal em 2022 sublinha a interação entre as medidas de saúde pública e a dinâmica das doenças respiratórias em crianças pequenas.

Seasonality of the incidence of bronchiolitis in infants - Brazil, 2016-2022: An interrupted time-series analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the seasonality of acute bronchiolitis in Brazil during the 2020-2022 season and compare it with the previous seasons. METHODS: Data from the incidence of hospitalizations due to acute bronchiolitis in infants <1 year of age were obtained from the Department of Informatics of the Brazilian Public Health database for the period between 2016 and 2022. These data were also analyzed by macro-regions of Brazil (North, Northeast, Southeast, South, and Midwest). To describe seasonal and trend characteristics over time, we used the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages Model. RESULTS: Compared to the pre-COVID-19 period, the incidence of hospitalizations related to acute bronchiolitis decreased by 97% during non-pharmacological interventions (March 2020 - August 2021) but increased by 95% after non-pharmacological interventions relaxation (September 2021 - December 2022), resulting in a 16% overall increase. During the pre-COVID-19 period, hospitalizations for acute bronchiolitis followed a seasonal pattern, which was disrupted in 2020-2021 but recovered in 2022, with a peak occurring in May, approximately 4% higher than the pre-COVID-19 peak. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the significant influence of COVID-19 interventions on acute bronchiolitis hospitalizations in Brazil. The restoration of a seasonal pattern in 2022 highlights the interplay between public health measures and respiratory illness dynamics in young children.

Impact of COVID-19 mitigation strategies on asthma hospitalizations in Brazil.

Background: In 2020, a unique social experience was provided by the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Interventions to tackle the pandemic may affect the burden of other respiratory diseases. Objective: This study aims to assess the impact of the COVID-19 mitigation strategies on hospitalizations for asthma in children aged between 1 and 14 years, adults aged between 20 and 59 years, and elderly older than 60 years. Methods: Data from hospital admissions for asthma were obtained from the Department of Informatics of Brazilian Public Health System database in the period between January 2016 and December 2020 and analyzed by age groups. To evaluate the effect of containment measures on the incidence of asthma and respiratory system diseases (total), the absolute reduction and relative reduction were calculated by analyzing the subsets from 2016 to 2019 versus 2020. Results: There was a significant reduction in the average incidence of hospitalizations in 2020, with numbers ranging from -59% (incidence rate ratio, 0.41 [0.37-0.45]) for age 1 to 14 years (prepandemic 1,393.2/100,000 vs pandemic 574.9/100.000), -37% (incidence rate ratio, 0.63 [0.49-0.80]) for age 20 to 59 years (prepandemic 160.2/100,000 vs pandemic 101.1/100,000), and -60% (incidence rate ratio, 0.40 [0.33-0.47]) for older than 60 years (prepandemic 460.6/100,000 vs pandemic 185.3/100,000). Conclusions: Ashtma hospitalizations decreased in 2020, especially in the pediatric group and the older group during the COVID-19 pandemic, which may be associated with the reduction in the incidence of many respiratory viral infections.