Using healthcare systems data for outcomes in clinical trials: issues to consider at the design stage.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare system data (HSD) are increasingly used in clinical trials, augmenting or replacing traditional methods of collecting outcome data. This study, PRIMORANT, set out to identify, in the UK context, issues to be considered before the decision to use HSD for outcome data in a clinical trial is finalised, a methodological question prioritised by the clinical trials community. METHODS: The PRIMORANT study had three phases. First, an initial workshop was held to scope the issues faced by trialists when considering whether to use HSDs for trial outcomes. Second, a consultation exercise was undertaken with clinical trials unit (CTU) staff, trialists, methodologists, clinicians, funding panels and data providers. Third, a final discussion workshop was held, at which the results of the consultation were fed back, case studies presented, and issues considered in small breakout groups. RESULTS: Key topics included in the consultation process were the validity of outcome data, timeliness of data capture, internal pilots, data-sharing, practical issues, and decision-making. A majority of consultation respondents (n = 78, 95%) considered the development of guidance for trialists to be feasible. Guidance was developed following the discussion workshop, for the five broad areas of terminology, feasibility, internal pilots, onward data sharing, and data archiving. CONCLUSIONS: We provide guidance to inform decisions about whether or not to use HSDs for outcomes, and if so, to assist trialists in working with registries and other HSD providers to improve the design and delivery of trials.

Hepatic steatosis in people older and younger than fifty who are living with HIV and HIV-negative controls: A cross-sectional study nested within the POPPY cohort.

BACKGROUND: Hepatic steatosis is a major cause of chronic liver disease associated with several negative health outcomes. We compared the prevalence of and factors associated with steatosis in people living with and without HIV. METHODS: Older (>50 years) and younger (<50 years) people with HIV and older HIV-negative controls (>50 years) underwent liver transient elastography examination with controlled attenuation parameter (steatosis ≥238 dB/m, moderate/severe steatosis ≥280 dB/m, liver fibrosis ≥7.1 kPa). We compared groups using logistic regression/Chi-squared/Fisher's exact/Kruskal-Wallis tests. RESULTS: In total, 317 participants (109 older people with HIV; 101 younger people with HIV; 107 HIV-negative controls) were predominantly white (86%) and male (76%), and 21% were living with obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 ). Most (97%) people with HIV had undetectable HIV RNA. The prevalence of fibrosis was 8.4%, 3.0%, and 6.5% in the three groups, respectively (p = 0.26). Fibrosis was predominately (>65%) mild. The prevalence of steatosis was the same in older people with HIV (66.4%) and controls (66.4%) but lower in younger people with HIV (37.4%; p < 0.001). After adjustment, younger people with HIV were less likely to have steatosis (odds ratio [OR] 0.26; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.14-0.52) than controls, but male sex (OR 2.45; 95% CI 1.20-4.50) and high waist-to-hip ratio (OR 3.04; 95% CI 1.74-5.33) were associated with an increased odds of steatosis. We found no association between steatosis and HIV-related variables. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis was similar between older participants regardless of HIV status. Age, sex, and abdominal obesity, but not HIV-related variables, were associated with steatosis. Interventions for controlling obesity should be integrated into routine HIV care.

Statistical primer: using prognostic models to predict the future: what cardiothoracic surgery can learn from Strictly Come Dancing.

OBJECTIVES: Prognostic models are widely used across medicine and within cardiothoracic surgery, where predictive tools such as EuroSCORE are commonplace. Such models are a useful component of clinical assessment but may be misapplied. In this article, we demonstrate some of the major issues with risk scores by using the popular BBC television programme Strictly Come Dancing (known as Dancing with the Stars in many other countries) as an example. METHODS: We generated a multivariable prognostic model using data from the then-completed 19 series of Strictly Come Dancing to predict prospectively the results of the 20th series. RESULTS: The initial model based solely on demographic data was limited in its predictive value (0.25, 0.22; R2 and Spearman's rank correlation, respectively) but was substantially improved following the introduction of early judges' scores deemed representative of whether contestants could actually dance (0.40, 0.30). We then utilize our model to discuss the difficulties and pitfalls in using and interpreting prognostic models in cardiothoracic surgery and beyond, particularly where these do not adequately capture potentially important prognostic information. CONCLUSION: Researchers and clinicians alike should use prognostic models cautiously and not extrapolate conclusions from demographic data alone.

Use of albumin infusion for cirrhosis-related complications: An international position statement.

Background & Aims: Numerous studies have evaluated the role of human albumin (HA) in managing various liver cirrhosis-related complications. However, their conclusions remain partially controversial, probably because HA was evaluated in different settings, including indications, patient characteristics, and dosage and duration of therapy. Methods: Thirty-three investigators from 19 countries with expertise in the management of liver cirrhosis-related complications were invited to organise an International Special Interest Group. A three-round Delphi consensus process was conducted to complete the international position statement on the use of HA for treatment of liver cirrhosis-related complications. Results: Twelve clinically significant position statements were proposed. Short-term infusion of HA should be recommended for the management of hepatorenal syndrome, large volume paracentesis, and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in liver cirrhosis. Its effects on the prevention or treatment of other liver cirrhosis-related complications should be further elucidated. Long-term HA administration can be considered in specific settings. Pulmonary oedema should be closely monitored as a potential adverse effect in cirrhotic patients receiving HA infusion. Conclusions: Based on the currently available evidence, the international position statement suggests the potential benefits of HA for the management of multiple liver cirrhosis-related complications and summarises its safety profile. However, its optimal timing and infusion strategy remain to be further elucidated. Impact and implications: Thirty-three investigators from 19 countries proposed 12 position statements on the use of human albumin (HA) infusion in liver cirrhosis-related complications. Based on current evidence, short-term HA infusion should be recommended for the management of HRS, LVP, and SBP; whereas, long-term HA administration can be considered in the setting where budget and logistical issues can be resolved. However, pulmonary oedema should be closely monitored in cirrhotic patients who receive HA infusion.

Investigating potential confounding by indication when considering the association between proton pump inhibitor use, infection, hepatic encephalopathy and mortality in hospitalised decompensated cirrhosis: a post-hoc analysis of the ATTIRE trial.

Background: Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are commonly prescribed to prevent and treat upper gastrointestinal ulceration and bleeding. Studies have identified increased incidence of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and hepatic encephalopathy (HE) in cirrhosis patients taking PPIs. However, results are conflicting, and as PPIs are prescribed for variceal bleeding, a major risk factor for infection and HE, it is challenging to discern whether these associations are causal. Methods: In this post-hoc analysis of the ATTIRE trial, we pooled all patient data to investigate the effects of PPI use on clinical outcomes. ATTIRE was a multicentre, open-label, randomised trial of targeted 20% human albumin solution (HAS) daily infusions versus standard care involving 777 adults with decompensated cirrhosis hospitalised with acute complications and albumin <30 g/L. Study recruitment was between Jan 25, 2016, and June 28, 2019, at 35 hospitals across England, Scotland, and Wales. Key exclusion criteria were advanced hepatocellular carcinoma with life expectancy <8 weeks and patients receiving palliative care. In ATTIRE, patients were grouped by PPI use at trial entry. We studied infection and HE at baseline and incidence of hospital acquired infection, new onset HE, renal dysfunction and mortality. We attempted with propensity score matching to account for differences in disease severity. Findings: Overall PPI use at baseline was not associated with increased incidence of infection, renal dysfunction or mortality, but was associated with significantly increased incidence of grade III/IV HE during hospital stay (P = 0.011). This was only significant for those taking intravenous PPIs and these patients had >10 times the incidence of variceal bleeding and near double the 28-day mortality compared to non-PPI patients. However, propensity score matching was not possible as there was such a strong selection of patients for PPI use, that we could not find sufficient non-PPI patients to match to. We found no impact of PPI use on plasma markers of bacterial translocation, infection or systemic inflammation. Interpretations: Our real-world data from a completed randomised trial show that PPIs are widely prescribed in the UK and judicious use appears safe in patients hospitalised with decompensated cirrhosis. However, patients prescribed PPIs had fundamentally different phenotypes to those not prescribed PPIs, a form of confounding by indication, which should be strongly considered when interpreting studies and making recommendations about their use. Funding: Wellcome Trust and Department of Health and Social Care.

Parenclitic Network Mapping Identifies Response to Targeted Albumin Therapy in Patients Hospitalized With Decompensated Cirrhosis.

INTRODUCTION: The efficacy of targeted albumin therapy in the management of decompensatory events in cirrhosis is unclear, with different reports showing conflicting results. It is possible that only certain subgroups of patients may benefit from targeted albumin administration. However, extensive conventional subgroup analyses have not yet identified these subgroups. Albumin is an important regulator of physiological networks and may interact with homeostatic mechanism differently in patients according to the integrity of their physiological network. In this study, we aimed to assess the value of network mapping in predicting response to targeted albumin therapy in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: This is a substudy of the ATTIRE trial, a multicenter randomized trial conducted to assess the effect of targeted albumin therapy in cirrhosis. Baseline serum bilirubin, albumin, sodium, creatinine, CRP, white cell count (WCC), international normalized ratio, heart rate, and blood pressure of 777 patients followed up for 6 months were used for network mapping using parenclitic analysis. Parenclitic network analysis involves measuring the deviation of each patient from the existing network of physiological interactions in a reference population. RESULTS: Overall network connectivity and deviations along the WCC-CRP axis predicted 6-month survival independent of age and model for end-stage liver disease in the standard care arm. Patients with lower deviation along the WCC-CRP axis showed lower survival in response to targeted albumin administration over a 6-month follow-up period. Likewise, patients with higher overall physiological connectivity survived significantly less than the standard care group after targeted albumin infusion. DISCUSSION: The parenclitic network mapping can predict the survival of patients with cirrhosis and identify patient subgroups that do not benefit from targeted albumin therapy.

Evaluating the Role of Antibiotics in Patients Admitted to Hospital With Decompensated Cirrhosis: Lessons From the ATTIRE Trial.

INTRODUCTION: Hospital-acquired infections (HAI) are common in cirrhosis with antibiotics frequently used to prevent infections, but their efficacy for this role is unknown. To investigate this, we used Albumin to Prevent Infection in Chronic Liver Failure (ATTIRE) data to evaluate whether antibiotic use in patients without infection prevented HAI. METHODS: In ATTIRE patients without infection at baseline grouped by antibiotic prescription or not, we studied HAI during trial treatment period and mortality, with propensity score matching to account for differences in disease severity. RESULTS: Two hundred three of 408 patients prescribed antibiotics at enrollment did not have infection and they were more unwell than noninfected patients not given antibiotics. There were no differences in subsequent HAI comparing antibiotic treated (39/203, 19.2%) to nonantibiotic treated (73/360, 20.3%; P = 0.83). Twenty-eight-day mortality was higher in antibiotic-treated patients ( P = 0.004) likely reflecting increased disease severity. Matching groups using propensity scoring revealed no differences in HAI or mortality. In noninfected patients at enrollment treated with/without rifaximin, there were no differences in HAI ( P = 0.16) or mortality, confirmed with propensity matching. Patients given long-term antibiotic prophylaxis at discharge had no differences in 6-month mortality compared with nonantibiotic patients, although antibiotic-treated patients had more infections at trial entry, with numbers too small for matching. DISCUSSION: Half of antibiotics at study entry were given to patients without an infection diagnosis which did not reduce the overall risk of HAI or improve mortality. This supports prompt de-escalation or discontinuation of antibiotics guided by culture sensitivities at 24-48 hours after commencement if no infection and the patient is improving.

Use of non-selective B-blockers is safe in hospitalised decompensated cirrhosis patients and exerts a potential anti-inflammatory effect: Data from the ATTIRE trial.

Background: Nonselective B-blockers (NSBBs) are believed to have pleiotropic effects beyond reducing portal pressure. However, studies also report potential harm in patients hospitalized with cirrhosis and ascites. We therefore investigated whether NSBB use at ATTIRE trial entry (Albumin to prevent infection in chronic liver failure, 2016-19) was associated with increased renal or cardiovascular dysfunction, compared the incidence of infection and plasma markers of systemic inflammation, and examined mortality at 28-days, 3 and 6-months. Methods: In ATTIRE patients grouped by NSBB use at trial entry, we studied infection at baseline, hospital acquired infection and organ dysfunction during trial treatment period and mortality, with propensity score matching to account for differences in disease severity. Findings: There were no differences in renal or cardiovascular dysfunction between patients treated with NSBBs or not, during days 3-15 of hospitalization, despite elevated serum creatinine in NSBB patients at hospitalisation. Use of NSBBs was associated with a significant reduction in infection at hospitalization (p = 0.006), lower white cell counts throughout hospital stay (p < 0.001) and reduced plasma procalcitonin (p = 0.009) and interlukin-8 levels (p = 0.04) at baseline, but markers of bacterial translocation and systemic inflammation were the same in treatment groups. There was no reduction in hospital acquired infections in patients taking NSBBs and no beneficial impact on mortality at 28-days, 3 and 6-months. Interpretations: Our real-world data from a completed randomised trial show that use of NSBBs in decompensated cirrhosis patients is safe during hospitalisation. We also show a potential anti-inflammatory role for NSBBs which may be mediated by a downregulation of IL-8 induced leucocytosis, that was associated with reduced infection at baseline but not a survival benefit. Funding: Wellcome Trust and Department of Health and Social Care.

ASEPTIC: primary antibiotic prophylaxis using co-trimoxazole to prevent SpontanEous bacterial PeritoniTIs in Cirrhosis-study protocol for an interventional randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial infection is a major cause of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a serious and common infection in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. Secondary prophylactic antibiotic therapy has been shown to improve outcomes after an episode of SBP but primary prophylaxis to prevent the first episode of SBP remains contentious. The aim of this trial is to assess whether primary antibiotic prophylaxis with co-trimoxazole improves overall survival compared to placebo in adults with cirrhosis and ascites. METHODS: The ASEPTIC trial is a multicentre, placebo-controlled, double-blinded, randomised controlled trial (RCT) in England, Scotland, and Wales. Patients aged 18 years and older with cirrhosis and ascites requiring diuretic treatment or paracentesis, and no current or previous episodes of SBP, are eligible, subject to exclusion criteria. The trial aims to recruit 432 patients from at least 30 sites. Patients will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive either oral co-trimoxazole 960 mg or an identical placebo once daily for 18 months, with 6 monthly follow-up visits thereafter (with a maximum possible follow-up period of 48 months, and a minimum of 18 months). The primary outcome is overall survival. Secondary outcomes include the time to the first incidence of SBP, hospital admission rates, incidence of other infections (including Clostridium difficile) and antimicrobial resistance, patients' health-related quality of life, health and social care resource use, incidence of cirrhosis-related decompensation events, liver transplantation, and treatment-related serious adverse events. DISCUSSION: This trial will investigate the efficacy, safety, and cost-effectiveness of co-trimoxazole for patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites to determine whether this strategy improves clinical outcomes. Given there are no treatments that improve survival in decompensated cirrhosis outside of liver transplant, if the trial has a positive outcome, we anticipate widespread adoption of primary antibiotic prophylaxis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT043955365 . Registered on 18 April 2020. Research ethical approval was granted by the Research Ethics Committee (South Central - Oxford B; REC 19/SC/0311) and the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA).

Long-term albumin treatment in patients with cirrhosis and ascites.

Although proposed for the first time several decades ago, the possibility that long-term human albumin could be effective for the treatment of patients with cirrhosis and ascites has become a topic of scientific and clinical discussion in the last decade. Long-term albumin administration represents a completely different treatment perspective compared to acute or short-term uses of albumin. Results from the ANSWER and the MACHT studies indicate that long-term albumin treatment can be effective, safe and able to modify the course of the disease provided that albumin is given at a sufficient dose and for a sufficient time to restore physiological levels and functions of the circulating molecule, which are compromised, at least partially, in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Further clinical studies and randomised trials are warranted to confirm the clinical benefits of long-term albumin therapy. Important areas for further research include determining the precise target population, the biomarkers of response, the optimal dose and frequency of albumin infusions, the stopping rules, and the cost-effectiveness of treatment in different healthcare systems across the world, particularly in those where the logistical issues and costs related to the periodic intravenous infusions may represent an important limitation to the implementation of this innovative approach in clinical practice. In this review, we will critically analyse the available data on long-term albumin treatment, focusing on the differences that exist between studies, the controversial issues and the future perspectives.

Targeted Albumin Infusions Do Not Improve Systemic Inflammation or Cardiovascular Function in Decompensated Cirrhosis.

INTRODUCTION: Albumin is recommended in decompensated cirrhosis, and studies have shown potential immunomodulatory effects. However, 2 large trials of repeated albumin infusions demonstrated contrasting results between outpatients and hospitalized patients. We investigated markers of systemic inflammation, immune function, albumin binding, and cardiovascular function using samples from Albumin To prevenT Infection in chronic liveR failurE (ATTIRE) taken at baseline, day 5, and day 10 of the trial to identify why targeted albumin infusions had no effect in hospitalized patients. METHODS: Plasma samples were analyzed from 143 patients (n = 71 targeted albumin; n = 72 standard care at baseline) for cytokines, cardiovascular markers, prostaglandin E2, the effect of plasma on macrophage function, and albumin radioligand binding and oxidation status. The sample size was based on our feasibility study, and samples were selected by a trial statistician stratified by the serum albumin level and the presence of infection at randomization and analyses performed blinded to the study arm. Data were linked to 3-month mortality and treatment groups compared. RESULTS: Increased baseline model for end-stage liver disease score, white cell count, calprotectin, CD163, tumor necrosis factor, renin, atrial natriuretic peptide, and syndecan-1 were associated with 3-month mortality. Despite infusing substantially differing volumes of albumin, there were no significant differences in inflammatory markers, albumin-prostaglandin E2 binding, or cardiovascular markers between treatment arms. DISCUSSION: Contrary to many preclinical studies, targeted intravenous albumin therapy in hospitalized decompensated cirrhosis had no effect across a broad range of systemic inflammation, albumin function, and cardiovascular mediators and biomarkers compared with standard care, consistent with the null clinical findings.

Monocyte dysfunction in decompensated cirrhosis is mediated by the prostaglandin E2-EP4 pathway.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Infection is a major problem in advanced liver disease secondary to monocyte dysfunction. Elevated prostaglandin (PG)E2 is a mediator of monocyte dysfunction in cirrhosis; thus, we examined PGE2 signalling in outpatients with ascites and in patients hospitalised with acute decompensation to identify potential therapeutic targets aimed at improving monocyte dysfunction. METHODS: Using samples from 11 outpatients with ascites and 28 patients hospitalised with decompensated cirrhosis, we assayed plasma levels of PGE2 and lipopolysaccharide (LPS); performed quantitative real-time PCR on monocytes; and examined peripheral blood monocyte function. We performed western blotting and immunohistochemistry for PG biosynthetic machinery expression in liver tissue. Finally, we investigated the effect of PGE2 antagonists in whole blood using polychromatic flow cytometry and cytokine production. RESULTS: We show that hepatic production of PGE2 via the cyclo-oxygenase 1-microsomal PGE synthase 1 pathway, and circulating monocytes contributes to increased plasma PGE2 in decompensated cirrhosis. Transjugular intrahepatic sampling did not reveal whether hepatic or monocytic production was larger. Blood monocyte numbers increased, whereas individual monocyte function decreased as patients progressed from outpatients with ascites to patients hospitalised with acute decompensation, as assessed by Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA)-DR isotype expression and tumour necrosis factor alpha and IL6 production. PGE2 mediated this dysfunction via its EP4 receptor. CONCLUSIONS: PGE2 mediates monocyte dysfunction in decompensated cirrhosis via its EP4 receptor and dysfunction was worse in hospitalised patients compared with outpatients with ascites. Our study identifies a potential drug target and therapeutic opportunity in these outpatients with ascites to reverse this process to prevent infection and hospital admission. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis (jaundice, fluid build-up, confusion, and vomiting blood) have high infection rates that lead to high mortality rates. A white blood cell subset, monocytes, function poorly in these patients, which is a key factor underlying their sensitivity to infection. We show that monocyte dysfunction in decompensated cirrhosis is mediated by a lipid hormone in the blood, prostaglandin E2, which is present at elevated levels, via its EP4 pathway. This dysfunction worsens when patients are hospitalised with complications of cirrhosis compared with those in the outpatients setting, which supports the EP4 pathway as a potential therapeutic target for patients to prevent infection and hospitalisation.