Rapid weight change as a predictor of disability among community-dwelling Japanese older adults.

AIM: To fill the knowledge gap regarding weight change and the onset of disability in community-dwelling Japanese older adults, we investigated the potential effects of rapid weight change on disability risk as defined by Japan's long-term care insurance (LTCI) system. METHODS: We analyzed data from a longitudinal study of 10 375 community-dwelling older Japanese adults (≥65 years) who were not LTCI needs certified at baseline and joined the study from 2002 to 2005. Weight change (percentage) was calculated by subtracting participants' weight in the previous year from that measured during a physical examination at study commencement. The five weight-change categories ranged from sizable weight loss (≤ -8.0%) to sizable weight gain (≥ +8.0%). Disability was defined according to LTCI certifications at follow-up. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for new-onset disability using a Cox proportional hazards model that fitted the proportional subdistribution hazards regression model with weights for competing risks of death. RESULTS: During the mean 10.5-year follow-up, 2994 participants developed a disability. Sizable weight loss (HR [95% confidence intervals], 1.41 [1.17-1.71]) and weight loss (1.20 [1.05-1.36]) were significant predictors of disability onset. Sizable weight gain (1.45 [1.07-1.97]) corresponded to severe disability. Stratified analyses by lifestyle and initial body mass index categories revealed more pronounced associations between weight change and disability risk in the unhealthy lifestyle and below initial normal body mass index groups. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid and sizable weight gain could be additional criteria for disability risk in older adults. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2023; 23: 809-816.

The Potential of a Stroke Registry Using Diagnosis Procedure Combination Data from All Hospitals in a Japanese Prefecture.

OBJECTIVES: In Japan, many hospitals have joined the diagnosis procedure combination/per-diem payment system (DPC/PDPS), which provides unified information about inpatients. DPC data are digitized, and the number of participating hospitals has increased recently. Herein, we evaluated the potential of a stroke registry constructed using these unified DPC data from all hospitals in the Iwate Prefecture, Japan. METHODS: The proportion of cerebrovascular disease (CVD) cases registered by DPC-participating hospitals was calculated and compared with all registered cases in the Iwate Stroke Registry in 2008-2017. The cases were categorized based on sex, age-groups, stroke subtypes, and first-ever onset or recurrence onset. Based on the registered cases in the stroke registry, the accuracy of the CVD cases extracted by the disease name from DPC data of a typical core hospital and a typical noncore hospital was evaluated. RESULTS: Of the 71 hospitals with 9,992 beds in the Iwate Prefecture in 2018, 50 hospitals with 8,316 beds participated in the DPC system. The proportion of registered cases from participating hospitals was 95.2% (44,779/47,018) for all stroke types (95.6% men and 94.9% women), 94.3% for cerebral infarction, 97.0% for intracerebral hemorrhage, and 98.7% for subarachnoid hemorrhage, whereas it was 95.7% for first-ever onset and 94.1% for recurrent onset. The proportion of registered cases decreased with increasing patient age. Attending doctors and researchers registered 486 and 41 CVD cases from the core and noncore hospitals, respectively, whereas 455 and 46 CVD cases were extracted from the DPC data of these hospitals, respectively. This yielded 86.6% sensitivity, 99.3% specificity, 92.5% positive predictive value, and 98.7% negative predictive value for the core hospital; these values were 92.7%, 98.6%, 82.6%, and 99.5%, respectively, for the noncore hospital. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS: The stroke registry constructed using DPC data from all hospitals of Iwate Prefecture appears to be adequately complete and accurate.

Association between Milk Intake and Incident Stroke among Japanese Community Dwellers: The Iwate-KENCO Study.

We aimed to evaluate the association between the milk consumption and incident stroke in a Japanese population, where milk consumption is lower than that of Western countries. In total, 14,121 participants (4253 men and 9868 women) aged 40-69 years, free from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) were prospectively followed for 10.7 years. Participants were categorized into four groups according to the milk intake frequency obtained from a brief-type self-administered diet questionnaire. The adjusted HRs of total stroke, ischemic stroke and haemorrhagic stroke associated with milk intake frequency were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow-up, 478 stroke cases were detected (208 men and 270 women). Compared to women with a milk intake of <2 cups/week, those with an intake of 7 to <12 cups/week had a significantly low risk of ischemic stroke in a model adjusting CVD risk factors; the HR (95% CI) was 0.53 (0.32-0.88). No significant associations were found in men. This study suggested that milk intake of 7 to <12 cups/week decreased the risk of ischemic stroke in Japanese women. Milk intake of about 1 to <2 cups/day may be effective in the primary prevention of ischemic stroke in a population with low milk intake.

Utility of urinary albumin excretion as an index for stratifying the residual cardiovascular risk in patients undergoing antihypertensive agents treatment.

BACKGROUND: Patients treated with antihypertensive medication, even those with well controlled blood pressure (BP), are at higher risk for the development of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in comparison to nonhypertensive individuals with optimal risk levels. We hypothesized that this residual risk could be stratified based on urinary albumin excretion (UAE). METHODS: A total of 13 082 middle-aged and older individuals with SBP/DBP of less than 160/100 mmHg and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratios (UACRs) of less than 300 mg/g, and who were free from ASCVD events, were followed to investigate the incidence of ASCVD. The baseline BP was classified into four categories: normal BP (BP1), high normal BP (BP2), elevated BP (BP3), and grade 1 hypertension (BP4) based on the 2019 Japanese Society of Hypertension guidelines. RESULTS: After an average 10.6 ±â€Š2.6 years of follow-up, the multivariable hazard ratio for the development of ASCVD (n = 994) was already increased in medicated hypertensive patients with BP1 in comparison with untreated individuals with BP1; however, among medicated hypertensive patients, this risk was separated between the UAE groups, which were classified according to the median UACR (male, 15.4 mg/g; female, 19.0 mg/g). In medicated hypertensive patients with any category of BP1-BP3, the adjusted risk of the development of ASCVD in those with lower and higher UACRs was comparable to that observed in untreated individuals in the BP1 and BP4 categories, respectively. CONCLUSION: In medicated patients with well controlled hypertension, UAE is useful for stratifying the residual risk of developing ASCVD in comparison to nonhypertensive individuals with optimal risk levels.

Low educational level increases functional disability risk subsequent to heart failure in Japan: On behalf of the Iwate KENCO study group.

OBJECTIVES: The risk factors that contribute to future functional disability after heart failure (HF) are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to determine potential risk factors to future functional disability after HF in the general older adult population in Japan. METHODS: The subjects who were community-dwelling older adults aged 65 or older without a history of cardiovascular diseases and functional disability were followed in this prospective study for 11 years. Two case groups were determined from the 4,644 subjects: no long-term care insurance (LTCI) after HF (n = 52) and LTCI after HF (n = 44). We selected the controls by randomly matching each case of HF with three of the remaining 4,548 subjects who were event-free during the period: those with no LTCI and no HF with age +/-1 years and of the same sex, control for the no LTCI after HF group (n = 156), and control for the LTCI after HF group (n = 132). HF was diagnosed according to the Framingham diagnostic criteria. Individuals with a functional disability were those who had been newly certified by the LTCI during the observation period. Objective data including blood samples and several socioeconomic items in the baseline survey were assessed using a self-reported questionnaire. RESULTS: Significantly associated risk factors were lower educational levels (odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 3.72 [1.63-8.48]) in the LTCI after HF group and hypertension (2.20 [1.10-4.43]) in no LTCI after HF group. Regular alcohol consumption and unmarried status were marginally significantly associated with LTCI after HF (OR [95% CI]; drinker = 2.69 [0.95-7.66]; P = 0.063; unmarried status = 2.54 [0.91-7.15]; P = 0.076). CONCLUSION: Preventive measures must be taken to protect older adults with unfavorable social factors from disability after HF via a multidisciplinary approach.

Slightly Elevated Serum Ionic Fluoride Levels Inhibit Insulin Secretion and Increase Glucose Levels in a General Japanese Population: a Cross-sectional Study.

A cross-sectional study was performed to investigate the relationships between serum fluoride levels, glucose levels, and insulin secretion in a general population. A total of 330 healthy subjects (167 men; 163 women) aged between 40 and 69 years were examined. Lifestyle information was obtained using questionnaires. Blood samples were collected in the early morning, and biochemical parameters and glucose indices were measured. Serum ionic fluoride (SIF) levels were assessed using a highly sensitive method. Relationships between glucose indices and SIF levels were investigated using a multiple linear regression analysis. SIF levels positively correlated with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and glycohemoglobin (HbA1c) levels in both sexes. In women, SIF levels negatively correlated with homeostasis model assessment insulin secretion (HOMA-ß) levels. In men, the proportion of regular drinkers negatively correlated with HOMA-ß, but not SIF levels. Although SIF levels < 1 µmol/L were associated with reduced insulin secretion and increased FPG levels, the risk of diabetes was not elevated. These results suggest that increased SIF levels caused by a large fluoride intake and compromised renal function combined with poor lifestyle choices elevate the risk of diabetes. Further studies are warranted to elucidate the effects of fluoride on glucose metabolism.

Occurrence of Cerebrovascular Diseases Decreased after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011.

BACKGROUND: A temporary increase in the occurrence of cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs) after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011 was reported; however, no studies have been conducted to investigate long-term effects. We assessed the long-term impact of the disaster on the incidence of CVDs. METHODS: Incidence data for CVDs from 2008 to 2017 were acquired from the population-based Stroke Registry with an inventory survey of Iwate Prefecture, Japan. Part of the coastal area in Iwate Prefecture was mildly flooded and the other part was severely flooded. Age-adjusted incidence rates of CVDs (according to the Japanese standard population) were calculated for each area. The relative risk (RR) of incidence based on the years before the disaster (2008-2010), adjusted by stratified age groups, was calculated for the year of the disaster (2011), and the years after the disaster (2012-2017) in each area. RESULTS: The age-adjusted incidence rates gradually decreased in all areas, with the exception of a temporary increase among men who lived on the coast the year the disaster occurred. The adjusted RR in the disaster year were not significant in any area and those of the postdisaster years were 0.91 (95% CI 0.87-0.96) for all inland men, 0.93 (0.89-0.97) for all inland women, 0.85 (0.78-0.93) for all coastal men, 0.87 (0.81-0.94) for all coastal women, 0.88 (0.80-0.98) for men at mildly flooded coast, 0.82 (0.75-0.89) for women at mildly flooded coast, 0.79 (0.68-0.91) for men at severely flooded coast, and 0.98 (0.86-1.11) for women at severely flooded coast. CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of CVDs in the flooded coastal areas did not increase in the year of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami; furthermore, it decreased for men according to the severity of flood damage in the subsequent years; this can be attributed to supportive activities for the tsunami victims and the migration of the population.

Poor self-rated health predicts the incidence of functional disability in elderly community dwellers in Japan: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although previous large population studies showed elderly with poor self-rated health (SRH) to be at a high risk of functional disability in Western countries, there have been few studies in which the association between SRH and functional disability was investigated in Japanese community dwellers. The association between SRH and functional disability, defined as certification of the long-term care insurance (LTCI) system, in Japanese elderly community dwellers was examined in this study. METHODS: A total of 10,690 individuals (39.5% men, mean age of 71.4 years) who were 65 years of age or more who did not have a history of cardiovascular disease or LTCI certification were followed in this prospective study for 10.5 years. SRH was classified into four categories: good, rather good, neither good nor poor, and poor. A Cox proportional-hazards model was used to determine the hazard ratios (HRs) for the incidence of functional disability among the SRH groups for each sex. RESULTS: The number of individuals with functional disability was 3377. Men who rated poor for SRH scored significantly higher for functional disability (HR [95% confidence interval]: poor = 1.74 [1.42, 2.14]) while women who rated rather good, neither good nor poor, and poor scored significantly higher for functional disability (rather good =1.12 [1.00, 1.25], neither good nor poor = 1.29 [1.13, 1.48], poor = 1.92 [1.65, 2.24]: p for trend < 0.001 in both sexes). CONCLUSION: Self-rated health, therefore, might be a useful predictor of functional disability in elderly people.

Additional prognostic value of electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy in traditional cardiovascular risk assessments in chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is a common predictor of the cardiovascular prognosis in chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, whether or not electrocardiography-derived LVH (ECG-LVH) has prognostic value in patients with various degrees of CKD and improves the cardiovascular risk stratification based on traditional risk factors remains unclear. METHODS: A total of 7206 participants at least 40 years of age who were free from cardiovascular events in a general population were followed for the incidence of cardiovascular events. CKD was confirmed by either the presence of a reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (<60 ml/min per 1.73 m) or albuminuria, defined as a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) of at least 30 mg/g Cr. RESULTS: A total of 1886 (26.2%) had CKD, of which 1471 (78.0%) had a preserved eGFR (CKD stage 1-2). After an average 11.3 years of follow-up, the adjusted hazard ratio for the incidence of cardiovascular events significantly increased for ECG-LVH according to the Sokolow--Lyon voltage, Cornell voltage, or Cornell voltage product among participants with CKD (hazard ratio 1.47, P = 0.002), in contrast to those without CKD (hazard ratio 1.15, P = 0.210). The inclusion of any ECG-LVH parameters improved the accuracy of reclassification in any risk prediction model based on the eGFR, UACR, or Framingham 10-year risk score in the CKD participants (net reclassification improvement = 0.13-0.32, all P values <0.040). CONCLUSION: In patients with CKD stage 1-5, ECG-LVH is useful for predicting the risk of future cardiovascular events and adds prognostic information to traditional cardiovascular risk assessments.

Ten-Year Cerebrovascular Disease Trend Occurrence by Population-based Stroke Registry in an Aging Japan Local Prefecture.

BACKGROUND: Cerebrovascular diseases are a major cause of death for Japanese people, but up-to-date national or prefectural incidences are unknown. We calculated the last 10-year cerebrovascular diseases incidence in an aging local prefecture in Japan with 1.2 million inhabitants and used the data to predict the future incidence. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed inventory surveys from the Iwate Stroke Registry (data from the whole Iwate Prefecture) from 2008 to 2017. We compared age-adjusted and age-specific incidence rates between the first half period from 2008 to 2012 and the last half period from 2013 to 2017. We used the incidence change rate and the forecasted population number to predict the future incidence. RESULTS: In a decade, the age-adjusted cerebrovascular diseases incidence rate per 100,000 person-years in the Japan standard population decreased from 212.1 to 176.8 in men and from 123.1 to 97.0 in women. The age-specific incidence rates and the number of incidences of those younger than 55 years decreased only slightly, but those of people 55 years or older decreased. The total number of incidence in 2040 will decrease to two-thirds of the value in 2015, but the number of incidence of those 85 years and older will increase by 2040. CONCLUSIONS: The cerebrovascular diseases rate and number of incidence decreased during the last decade and will decrease in the future, but the incidence in the oldest-old will increase. Specific nursing care and social measures to treat cerebrovascular diseases in the oldest-old will be needed.

Burden of high blood pressure as a contributing factor to stroke in the Japanese community-based diabetic population.

Diabetes mellitus is characterized by alterations in blood glucose (BG) metabolism, and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) has been widely used as a marker of the BG concentration. Diabetes often coexists with high blood pressure (BP). High BP and hyperglycemia are well-known risk factors of stroke. We examined the extent to which the increased risk of stroke in diabetic individuals is attributable to BP and BG using prospectively collected data from the Japanese general population. During an average 8.3 ± 2.2 years of follow-up, out 1606 diabetic individuals aged ≥40 years who were free of cardiovascular disease, 119 participants (7.4%) developed stroke. In multivariable analysis, a significant difference in the risk of incident stroke was noted among the BP categories, including normotension (BP1), prehypertension (BP2), and hypertension (BP3; P for trend = 0.001). By contrast, no difference was noted among the BG categories, including HbA1c levels <7.0% (HB1), 7.0-7.9% (HB2), and ≥8.0% (HB3; P for trend = 0.430). Compared with the category that included both BP1 and HB1, the population-attributable fraction (PAF) for stroke incidence was 52.0% from the BP2 and BP3 categories and 24.1% from the HB2 and HB3 categories, and the increased incidence from the HB2 and HB3 categories was mostly caused from coexistent BP2 and BP3 categories. In conclusion, in the Japanese community-based diabetic population, concomitant BP elevation largely contributes to the increased incidence of stroke and links BG elevation, as indicated by HbA1c, to the increased risk of stroke.

Prognostic Value of Electrocardiographic Left Ventricular Hypertrophy on Cardiovascular Risk in a Non-Hypertensive Community-Based Population.

BACKGROUND: The appearance of left ventricular hypertrophy on 12-lead electrocardiography (ECG-LVH) has been clarified to be associated with the risk of incidence of cardiovascular events (CVEs) in hypertensive individuals and the general population, but not enough in non-hypertensive individuals. METHODS: A total of 4,927 non-hypertensive individuals ≥40 years of age who were free of CVE in the general population were followed for the incidence of CVE. ECG-LVH was defined according to criteria of the Sokolow-Lyon (SL) voltage, Cornell voltage (CV), or Cornell voltage product (CP). RESULTS: During the average 9.8 ± 2.0 years of follow-up, 267 individuals (5.4%) had their first CVE. The hazard ratio (HR) for the incidence of CVE after full adjustment by potential confounders significantly increased in the individuals with ECG-LVH by any criteria of the SL voltage, CV, and CP (HR = 1.77, P < 0.001) compared to those with no ECG-LVH. This association was also significant in individuals without any of obesity, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus or those with systolic blood pressure (BP) <120 mm Hg and diastolic BP <80 mm Hg. Furthermore, ECG-LVH by each criteria provided the reclassification improvement for the CVE risk prediction model by the Framingham 10-year risk score (the net reclassification improvement = 0.17-0.22, each P value < 0.010). CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of hypertension, ECG-LVH parameters are associated with the increased risk of developed CVEs independent of the established risk factors and provide the additional prognostic value in an assessment of the CVE risk using the traditional risk factors.

Ability of B-Type Natriuretic Peptide Testing to Predict Cardioembolic Stroke in the General Population　- Comparisons With C-Reactive Protein and Urinary Albumin.

BACKGROUND: The ability of cardiovascular biomarkers to predict the incidence of stroke subtypes remains ill-defined in the general population.Methods and Results:The blood levels of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and urinary albumin corrected by urinary creatinine (UACR) were determined in a general population (n=13,575). The ability to predict the incidence of ischemic stroke subtypes (lacunar, atherothrombotic, cardioembolic) for each biomarker was assessed based on the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and using Cox proportional hazard modeling. The predictive abilities of UACR and hs-CRP for any subtype of ischemic event were found to be suboptimal. However, the ability of BNP to predict the incidence of cardioembolic stroke was excellent (AUC-ROC=0.81). When BNP was added to established stroke risk factors, the ability to predict cardioembolic stroke in terms of the AUC-ROC significantly improved (4-year follow-up, P=0.018; 8-year follow-up, P=0.009). Furthermore, when BNP was added to the JPHC score, the ability to predict cardioembolic stroke was significantly improved (net reclassification improvement=0.968, P<0.0001: integrated discrimination improvement=0.039, P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In the general population, plasma BNP was an excellent biomarker for predicting the incidence of cardioembolic stroke when used alone or in combination with established stroke risk factors.

Temporal Trends in the Incidence and Clinical Features of Acute Myocardial Infarction in a Japanese Rural Area From 2006 to 2014.

BACKGROUND: Recent temporal trends in the incidence and clinical features of acute myocardial infarction (MI) in the Japanese population are not well known.Methods and Results:This study used comprehensive registration for first-ever MI during the 9-year period from 2006 to 2014 in a rural area of northeastern Japan. The study period was divided into three 3-year terms (T1, 2006-2008; T2, 2009-2011; T3, 2012-2014). During the study period, a total of 814 patients with MI were registered. Although the age-adjusted incidence rate (100,000 person-years) in the middle-aged group (<70 years) was relatively stable, the rate for the elderly group (≥70 years) in T3 was significantly lower than that in T1 in both men (368 vs. 279; P<0.01) and women (204 vs. 108; P<0.01). In the general population of the study area, the rate of prescribed anticholesterol drugs was significantly increased during the study period, especially in the elderly population (P<0.01). From a clinical perspective, although the performance rate of primary percutaneous coronary intervention significantly increased with a shortened duration of hospital stay, the in-hospital mortality rate, especially in the elderly, did not significantly decrease during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The present study is the first to demonstrate a decreased age-adjusted incidence of MI during the period from 2006 to 2014 in a Japanese rural population, especially in the elderly.

Long-Term Effects of the 2011 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami on Incidence of Fatal and Nonfatal Myocardial Infarction.

This study aimed to examine the long-term effects of the 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami on the incidence of fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI). In the present study, the incidence of 2 types of cardiac events was comprehensively recorded. The study area was divided into 2 zones based on the severity of tsunami damage, which was determined by the percentage of the inundated area within the residential area (<10%, low-impact zone and ≥10%, high-impact zone). The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and 95% CI for both types of cardiac events during the disaster year and the postdisaster years were determined in each zone. During the 4-year period after the disaster, the SIRs for nonfatal MI did not change to a statistically significant extent in either zones. For fatal MI, the SIR was stable during the study period in the low-impact zone. However, in the high-impact zone, the SIR was significantly elevated in the disaster year of 2011 (1.80 [95% CI 1.32 to 2.28]), and this increase was sustained for the following 3 years (2012, 2.06 [1.55 to 2.57]; 2013, 1.99 [1.49 to 2.48]; 2014, 2.12 [1.62 to 2.63]). The SIRs for fatal MI for the 4 postdisaster years in the municipal areas were significantly correlated with the percentage of the inundated area (r = 0.83; p <0.001) and the number of deaths due to the tsunami (r = 0.77; p <0.005) but not with the maximum seismic intensity (r = 0.43; p = 0.12). In conclusion, these results suggest that the devastating tsunami was associated with a continual increase in the incidence of fatal MI among disaster survivors.

Risk of stroke and heart failure attributable to atrial fibrillation in middle-aged and elderly people: Results from a five-year prospective cohort study of Japanese community dwellers.

BACKGROUND: The relative and absolute risks of stroke and heart failure attributable to atrial fibrillation (AF) have not been sufficiently examined. METHODS: A prospective study of 23,731 community-dwelling Japanese individuals was conducted. Participants were divided into two groups based on the presence or absence of prevalent AF (n = 338 and n = 23,393, respectively). Excess events (EE) due to AF and relative risks (RRs) determined using the non-AF group as the reference for incident stroke and heart failure were estimated using Poisson regression stratified by age groups (middle-aged: 40-69 years old; elderly: 70 years of age or older) after adjustment for sex and age. RESULTS: There were 611 cases of stroke and 98 cases of heart failure during the observation period (131,088 person-years). AF contributed to a higher risk of stroke both in middle-aged individuals (EE 10.4 per 1000 person-years; RR 4.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.88-8.29) and elderly individuals (EE 18.3 per 1000 person-years; RR 3.05; 95% CI, 2.05-4.54). AF also contributed to a higher risk of heart failure in middle-aged individuals (EE 3.7 per 1000 person-years; RR 8.18; 95% CI, 2.41-27.8) and elderly individuals (EE 15.4 per 1000 person-years; RR 7.82; 95% CI, 4.11-14.9). Results obtained from multivariate-adjusted analysis were similar (stroke: EE 8.9 per 1000 person-years; RR 4.40; 95% CI, 2.57-7.55 in middle-aged and EE 17.4 per 1000 person-years; RR 2.97; 95% CI, 1.99-4.43 in elderly individuals; heart failure: EE 3.1 per 1000 person-years; RR 7.22; 95% CI, 2.06-25.3 in middle-aged and EE 14.1 per 1000 person-years; RR 7.41; 95% CI, 3.86-14.2 in elderly individuals). CONCLUSIONS: AF increased the risk of stroke by the same magnitude as that reported previously in Western countries. AF increased the RR of heart failure more than that in Western populations.

Sustained Increase in the Incidence of Acute Decompensated Heart Failure After the 2011 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami.

This study investigated the long-term impact of the 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami on the incidence of acute decompensated heart failure (HF) in the disaster area. This was a population-based study using comprehensive registration for all hospitals within the study area. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for new onset of HF during the disaster year (2011) and postdisaster years (2012 to 2014) were determined. When SIR were compared between the low- and high-impact areas, as defined by the extent of tsunami inundation in residential areas, SIR showed a significant increase in high-impact areas in 2011 (1.67, 95% CI 1.45 to 1.88) and tended to return to baseline in 2012, the first postdisaster year (1.25, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.43). The rate again increased in 2013 (1.38, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.57) and 2014 (1.55, 95% CI 1.35 to 1.75). In low-impact areas, no such increase was apparent during either the disaster year or the postdisaster years. Mean postdisaster period SIR for municipalities significantly correlated with the percentage of tsunami flooding in residential areas (r = 0.52, p <0.05) and with the percentage of refugees within the population (r = 0.74, p <0.01). There was no significant relation between maximum seismic intensity and mean SIR in these municipalities. In conclusion, these results suggest that the catastrophic tsunami but not the earthquake per se resulted in a prolonged increase in the incidence of HF among the general population living in tsunami-stricken areas.

Comparison between urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and urine protein dipstick testing for prevalence and ability to predict the risk for chronic kidney disease in the general population (Iwate-KENCO study): a prospective community-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: This study compared the combination of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) vs. eGFR and urine protein reagent strip testing to determine chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence, and each method's ability to predict the risk for cardiovascular events in the general Japanese population. METHODS: Baseline data including eGFR, UACR, and urine dipstick tests were obtained from the general population (n = 22 975). Dipstick test results (negative, trace, positive) were allocated to three levels of UACR (<30, 30-300, >300), respectively. In accordance with Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes CKD prognosis heat mapping, the cohort was classified into four risk grades (green: grade 1; yellow: grade 2; orange: grade 3, red: grade 4) based on baseline eGFR and UACR levels or dipstick tests. RESULTS: During the mean follow-up period of 5.6 years, 708 new onset cardiovascular events were recorded. For CKD identified by eGFR and dipstick testing (dipstick test ≥ trace and eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)), the incidence of CKD was found to be 9 % in the general population. In comparison to non-CKD (grade 1), although cardiovascular risk was significantly higher in risk grades ≥3 (relative risk (RR) = 1.70; 95 % CI: 1.28-2.26), risk predictive ability was not significant in risk grade 2 (RR = 1.20; 95 % CI: 0.95-1.52). When CKD was defined by eGFR and UACR (UACR ≥30 mg/g Cr and eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)), prevalence was found to be 29 %. Predictive ability in risk grade 2 (RR = 1.41; 95 % CI: 1.19-1.66) and risk grade ≥3 (RR = 1.76; 95 % CI: 1.37-2.28) were both significantly greater than for non-CKD. Reclassification analysis showed a significant improvement in risk predictive abilities when CKD risk grading was based on UACR rather than on dipstick testing in this population (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although prevalence of CKD was higher when detected by UACR rather than urine dipstick testing, the predictive ability for cardiovascular events from UACR-based risk grading was superior to that of dipstick-based risk grading in the general population.

Low-grade albuminuria and incidence of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in nondiabetic and normotensive individuals.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies indicate that, in people with diabetes or hypertension and in the general population, low-grade albuminuria (LGA) below the microalbuminuria threshold is a predictor for incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. However, it remains unclear whether LGA predicts the risk of CVD incidence and death in nondiabetic and normotensive individuals. METHODS: A total of 3599 individuals aged not less than 40 years from the general population who are free of CVD in nondiabetic and normotensive individuals with preserved glomerular filtration rate were followed for CVD incidence and all-cause death. LGA was defined as urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR) less than 30  mg/g. It was examined whether there is an association between LGA and CVD incidence or all-cause death. RESULTS: During the average 5.9 years of follow-up, 61 individuals had first CVD events, and 85 individuals died. The hazard ratios (HRs) for CVD incidence and all-cause death after full adjustment by potential confounders increased significantly in the top tertile of LGA (UACR ≥ 9.6  mg/g for men, ≥ 12.0  mg/g for women) compared with the first tertile [HR = 2.79, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.41-5.52, HR = 1.69, 95% CI, 1.00-2.84, respectively]. Population-attributable fractions of the top tertile of LGA for CVD incidence and all-cause death were 37.9 and 20.1%, respectively. CONCLUSION: In apparently healthy individuals with optimal blood pressure and no diabetes, LGA independently predicts CVD incidence and all-cause death, particularly with the large contribution to the excessive incidence of CVD.

Standardized Prevalence Ratios for Atrial Fibrillation in Adult Dialysis Patients in Japan.

BACKGROUND: While it is assumed that dialysis patients in Japan have a higher prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) than the general population, the magnitude of this difference is not known. METHODS: Standardized prevalence ratios (SPRs) for AF in dialysis patients (n = 1510) were calculated compared to data from the general population (n = 26 454) living in the same area. RESULTS: The prevalences of AF were 3.8% and 1.6% in dialysis patients and the general population, respectively. In male subjects, these respective values were 4.9% and 3.3%, and in female subjects they were 1.6% and 0.6%. The SPRs for AF were 2.53 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.88-3.19) in all dialysis patients, 1.80 (95% CI, 1.30-2.29) in male dialysis patients, and 2.13 (95% CI, 0.66-3.61) in female dialysis patients. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of AF in dialysis patients was twice that in the population-based controls. Since AF strongly contributes to a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in the general population, further longitudinal studies should be conducted regarding the risk of several outcomes attributable to AF among Japanese dialysis patients.