Impact of the visceral leishmaniasis elimination initiative on Leishmania donovani transmission in Nepal: a 10-year repeat survey.

BACKGROUND: Nepal launched a visceral leishmaniasis (also known as kala-azar) elimination initiative in 2005. We primarily aimed to assess whether transmission of Leishmania donovani had decreased since the launch of the initiative. We also assessed the validity of the direct agglutination test (DAT) as a marker of infection, in view of future surveillance systems. METHODS: We did a repeat survey in a population aged 2 years and older for whom baseline serological data were available from 2006. Data were from three districts in the eastern region of Nepal. The primary outcome of interest was prevalent infection with L donovani as measured with DAT (cutoff value ≥1:3200). We compared age group-specific and cluster-specific seroprevalences in 2016 with those in 2006, using χ2 tests, with a specific focus on the comparison of seroprevalences in children born between 1996 and 2005, and those born between 2006 and 2015. To estimate the overall adjusted risk ratio for being seropositive in 2016 compared with 2006, we fitted a Poisson model controlling for age, sex, and cluster. FINDINGS: Between Oct 17, 2016, and Dec 26, 2016, we assessed 6609 individuals. DAT prevalence in children younger than 10 years was 4·1% (95% CI 3·2-5·4) in 2006 versus 0·5% (0·1-1·7) in 2016 (p<0·0001). Seroprevalence was lower in 2016 than in 2006 in all age groups and in all repeated clusters. The overall adjusted risk ratio of being seropositive was 0·44 (95% CI 0·37-0·52) for 2016 compared with 2006, and 0·04 (0·01-0·16) in children younger than 10 years. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show that transmission of L donovani in Nepal has decreased significantly between 2006 and 2016, coinciding with the elimination programme. DAT seems useful for monitoring of L donovani transmission. FUNDING: The Directorate-General for Development Cooperation of Belgium.

Determinants for progression from asymptomatic infection to symptomatic visceral leishmaniasis: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infections outnumber clinical presentations, however the predictors for development of active disease are not well known. We aimed to identify serological, immunological and genetic markers for progression from L. donovani infection to clinical Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). METHODS: We enrolled all residents >2 years of age in 27 VL endemic villages in Bihar (India). Blood samples collected on filter paper on two occasions 6-12 months apart, were tested for antibodies against L. donovani with rK39-ELISA and DAT. Sero converters, (negative for both tests in the first round but positive on either of the two during the second round) and controls (negative on both tests on both occasions) were followed for three years. At the start of follow-up venous blood was collected for the following tests: DAT, rK39- ELISA, Quantiferon assay, SNP/HLA genotyping and L.donovani specific quantitative PCR. RESULTS: Among 1,606 subjects enrolled,17 (8/476 seroconverters and 9/1,130 controls) developed VL (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.1-8.3). High DAT and rK39 ELISA antibody titers as well as positive qPCR were strongly and significantly associated with progression from seroconversion to VL with odds ratios of 19.1, 30.3 and 20.9 respectively. Most VL cases arose early (median 5 months) during follow-up. CONCLUSION: We confirmed the strong association between high DAT and/or rK39 titers and progression to disease among asymptomatic subjects and identified qPCR as an additional predictor. Low predictive values do not warrant prophylactic treatment but as most progressed to VL early during follow-up, careful oberservation of these subjects for at least 6 months is indicated.

Evolutionary genomics of epidemic visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent.

Leishmania donovani causes visceral leishmaniasis (VL), the second most deadly vector-borne parasitic disease. A recent epidemic in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) caused up to 80% of global VL and over 30,000 deaths per year. Resistance against antimonial drugs has probably been a contributing factor in the persistence of this epidemic. Here we use whole genome sequences from 204 clinical isolates to track the evolution and epidemiology of L. donovani from the ISC. We identify independent radiations that have emerged since a bottleneck coincident with 1960s DDT spraying campaigns. A genetically distinct population frequently resistant to antimonials has a two base-pair insertion in the aquaglyceroporin gene LdAQP1 that prevents the transport of trivalent antimonials. We find evidence of genetic exchange between ISC populations, and show that the mutation in LdAQP1 has spread by recombination. Our results reveal the complexity of L. donovani evolution in the ISC in response to drug treatment.

Transmission of Leishmania donovani in the Hills of Eastern Nepal, an Outbreak Investigation in Okhaldhunga and Bhojpur Districts.

BACKGROUND: In the Indian subcontinent, Visceral leishmaniasis is endemic in a geographical area coinciding with the Lower Gangetic Plain, at low altitude. VL occurring in residents of hill districts is therefore often considered the result of Leishmania donovani infection during travel. Early 2014 we conducted an outbreak investigation in Okhaldhunga and Bhojpur districts in the Nepal hills where increasing number of VL cases have been reported. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A house-to-house survey in six villages documented retrospectively 35 cases of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). Anti-Leishmania antibodies were found in 22/23 past-VL cases, in 40/416 (9.6%) persons without VL and in 12/155 (7.7%) domestic animals. An age- and sex- matched case-control study showed that exposure to known VL-endemic regions was no risk factor for VL, but having a VL case in the neighbourhood was. SSU-rDNA PCR for Leishmania sp. was positive in 24 (5%) of the human, in 18 (12%) of the animal samples and in 16 (14%) bloodfed female Phlebotomus argentipes sand flies. L. donovani was confirmed in two asymptomatic individuals and in one sand fly through hsp70-based sequencing. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This is epidemiological and entomological evidence for ongoing local transmission of L. donovani in villages at an altitude above 600 meters in Nepal, in districts considered hitherto non-endemic for VL. The VL Elimination Initiative in Nepal should therefore consider extending its surveillance and control activities in order to assure VL elimination, and the risk map for VL should be redesigned.

Health & Demographic Surveillance System profile: the Muzaffarpur-TMRC Health and Demographic Surveillance System.

The Muzaffarpur-TMRC Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), established in 2007, was developed as an enlargement of the scope of a research collaboration on the project Visceral Leishmaniasis in Bihar, which had been ongoing since 2005. The HDSS is located in a visceral leishmaniasis (VL)-endemic area in the Muzaffarpur district of Bihar state in India. It is the only HDSS conducting research on VL, which is a vector-borne infectious disease transmitted by female phlebotomine sandflies and is fatal if left untreated. Currently the HDSS serves a population of over 105,000 in 66 villages. The HDSS collects data on vital events including pregnancies, births, deaths, migration and marriages, as well as other socio-economic indicators, at regular intervals. Incident VL cases are identified. The HDSS team is experienced in conducting both qualitative and quantitative studies, sample collection and rapid diagnostic tests in the field. In each village, volunteers connect the HDSS team with the community members. The Muzaffarpur-TMRC HDSS provides opportunities for studies on VL and other neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and their interaction with demographic events such as migration. Queries related to research collaborations and data sharing can be sent to Dr Shyam Sundar at [drshyamsundar@hotmail.com].

Failure of miltefosine treatment for visceral leishmaniasis in children and men in South-East Asia.

BACKGROUND: High frequency of relapse in miltefosine-treated visceral leishmaniasis (VL) patients in India and Nepal followed up for twelve months. OBJECTIVE: To identify epidemiological and clinical risk factors for relapse of VL in patients recently treated with standard dosing of miltefosine in India and Nepal. DESIGN: Prospective observational study in three Primary Health Centers and one reference center in Muzaffarpur district, Bihar, India; and two zonal hospitals and a university hospital in South-east Nepal; records of all consenting patients diagnosed with VL and treated with miltefosine according to the current treatment guidelines of the Kala azar elimination program between 2009 and 2011. RESULTS: We compared the clinical records of 78 cases of relapse with those of 775 patients who had no record of subsequent relapse. Relapse was 2 times more common amongst male patients (IRR 2.14, 95% CI 1.27-3.61), and 2 to 3 times more frequent in the age groups below 15 compared to the over 25 year olds (age 10 to 14: IRR 2.53; 95% CI 1.37-4.65 and Age 2 to 9: IRR 3.19; 95% CI 1.77-5.77). History of earlier VL episodes, or specific clinical features at time of diagnosis such as duration of symptoms or spleen size were no predictors of relapse. CONCLUSIONS: Young age and male gender were associated with increased risk of VL relapse after miltefosine, suggesting that the mechanism of relapse is mainly host-related i.e. immunological factors and/or drug exposure (pharmacokinetics). The observed decrease in efficacy of miltefosine may be explained by the inclusion of younger patients compared to the earlier clinical trials, rather than by a decreased susceptibility of the parasite to miltefosine. Our findings highlight the importance of proper clinical trials in children, including pharmacokinetics, to determine the safety, efficacy, drug exposure and therapeutic response of new drugs in this age group.

Model-based investigations of different vector-related intervention strategies to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis on the Indian subcontinent.

The elimination of infectious diseases requires reducing transmission below a certain threshold. The Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) Elimination Initiative in Southeast Asia aims to reduce the annual VL incidence rate below 1 case per 10,000 inhabitants in endemic areas by 2015 via a combination of case management and vector control. Using a previously developed VL transmission model, we investigated transmission thresholds dependent on measures reducing the sand fly density either by killing sand flies (e.g., indoor residual spraying and long-lasting insecticidal nets) or by destroying breeding sites (e.g., environmental management). Model simulations suggest that elimination of VL is possible if the sand fly density can be reduced by 67% through killing sand flies, or if the number of breeding sites can be reduced by more than 79% through measures of environmental management. These results were compared to data from two recent cluster randomised controlled trials conducted in India, Nepal and Bangladesh showing a 72% reduction in sand fly density after indoor residual spraying, a 44% and 25% reduction through the use of long-lasting insecticidal nets and a 42% reduction after environmental management. Based on model predictions, we identified the parameters within the transmission cycle of VL that predominantly determine the prospects of intervention success. We suggest further research to refine model-based predictions into the elimination of VL.

Risk factors for visceral leishmaniasis and asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infection in India and Nepal.

There is increasing interest in the role of asymptomatic infection in transmission of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). We studied the individual, household and environmental factors associated with asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infected individuals and VL. 7,538 individuals living in VL endemic villages in India and Nepal were divided into three mutually exclusive groups based on their VL history and Direct Agglutination Test (DAT) results in yearly serosurveys over a two-year period. The groups were (1) VL cases, (2) asymptomatically infected individuals (seroconverters) and (3) seronegative individuals. VL cases and seroconverters were compared to seronegative individuals in mixed logistic regression models. The risk of seroconversion and disease was significantly increased in individuals aged 14 to 24 years old and by the presence of other DAT-positive, asymptomatically infected individuals and VL cases in the house. The risk of seroconversion was higher in Indian than in Nepalese villages and it increased significantly with age, but not so for VL. This study demonstrates that, when risk factors for leishmanial infection and VL disease are evaluated in the same population, epidemiological determinants for asymptomatic infection and VL are largely similar.

Strong association between serological status and probability of progression to clinical visceral leishmaniasis in prospective cohort studies in India and Nepal.

INTRODUCTION: Asymptomatic persons infected with the parasites causing visceral leishmaniasis (VL) usually outnumber clinically apparent cases by a ratio of 4-10 to 1. We assessed the risk of progression from infection to disease as a function of DAT and rK39 serological titers. METHODS: We used available data on four cohorts from villages in India and Nepal that are highly endemic for Leishmania donovani. In each cohort two serosurveys had been conducted. Based on results of initial surveys, subjects were classified as seronegative, moderately seropositive or strongly seropositive using both DAT and rK39. Based on the combination of first and second survey results we identified seroconvertors for both markers. Seroconvertors were subdivided in high and low titer convertors. Subjects were followed up for at least one year following the second survey. Incident VL cases were recorded and verified. RESULTS: We assessed a total of 32,529 enrolled subjects, for a total follow-up time of 72,169 person years. Altogether 235 incident VL cases were documented. The probability of progression to disease was strongly associated with initial serostatus and with seroconversion; this was particularly the case for those with high titers and most prominently among seroconvertors. For high titer DAT convertors the hazard ratio reached as high as 97.4 when compared to non-convertors. The strengths of the associations varied between cohorts and between markers but similar trends were observed between the four cohorts and the two markers. DISCUSSION: There is a strongly increased risk of progressing to disease among DAT and/or rK39 seropositives with high titers. The options for prophylactic treatment for this group merit further investigation, as it could be of clinical benefit if it prevents progression to disease. Prophylactic treatment might also have a public health benefit if it can be corroborated that these asymptomatically infected individuals are infectious for sand flies.

Failure of miltefosine in visceral leishmaniasis is associated with low drug exposure.

BACKGROUND: Recent reports indicated high miltefosine treatment failure rates for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) on the Indian subcontinent. To further explore the pharmacological factors associated with these treatment failures, a population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic study was performed to examine the relationship between miltefosine drug exposure and treatment failure in a cohort of Nepalese patients with VL. METHODS: Miltefosine steady-state blood concentrations at the end of treatment were analyzed using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. A population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic analysis was performed using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling and a logistic regression model. Individual estimates of miltefosine exposure were explored for their relationship with treatment failure. RESULTS: The overall probability of treatment failure was 21%. The time that the blood concentration was >10 times the half maximal effective concentration of miltefosine (median, 30.2 days) was significantly associated with treatment failure: each 1-day decrease in miltefosine exposure was associated with a 1.08-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.17) increased odds of treatment failure. CONCLUSIONS: Achieving a sufficient exposure to miltefosine is a significant and critical factor for VL treatment success, suggesting an urgent need to evaluate the recently proposed optimal allometric miltefosine dosing regimen. This study establishes the first evidence for a drug exposure-effect relationship for miltefosine in the treatment of VL.

Relapse after treatment with miltefosine for visceral leishmaniasis is associated with increased infectivity of the infecting Leishmania donovani strain.

UNLABELLED: Leishmania donovani is an intracellular protozoan parasite that causes leishmaniasis, which can range from a self-healing cutaneous disease to a fatal visceral disease depending on the infecting species. Miltefosine is currently the latest and only oral antileishmanial that came out of drug discovery pipelines in the past few decades, but recent reports indicate a significant decline in its efficacy against visceral leishmaniasis (also known as kala-azar) in the Indian subcontinent. This relapse rate of up to 20% within 12 months after treatment was shown not to be related to reinfection, drug quality, drug exposure, or drug-resistant parasites. We therefore aimed to assess other phenotypes of the parasite that may affect treatment outcome and found a significant association between the number of metacyclic parasites, parasite infectivity, and patient treatment outcome in the Indian subcontinent. Together with previous studies on resistance of L. donovani against pentavalent antimonials, these data suggest that the infectivity of the parasite, or related phenotypes, might be a more determinant factor for treatment failure in visceral leishmaniasis than drug susceptibility, warranting a reassessment of our current view on treatment failure and drug resistance in leishmaniasis and beyond. IMPORTANCE: The high miltefosine relapse rate poses a major challenge for the current Kala-Azar Elimination Program in the Indian subcontinent and other leishmaniasis control programs worldwide. This relapse rate could not be related to reinfection, drug-resistant parasites, or reduced treatment quality. Here we report that an increased infectivity of the parasite is associated with miltefosine relapse of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) patients. These results supplement those obtained with antimonial-resistant L. donovani where an increased infectivity was also observed. This challenges the current view of Leishmania drug susceptibility being the biggest parasitic factor that contributes to treatment failure in leishmaniasis. These selected more infectious parasites may pose an additional burden to leishmaniasis control programs, highlighting the importance of multifaceted control measures to achieve leishmaniasis elimination in the Indian subcontinent and other regions where leishmaniasis is endemic.

In vitro susceptibility of Leishmania donovani to miltefosine in Indian visceral leishmaniasis.

Promastigote miltefosine (MIL) susceptibility was performed on Leishmania donovani isolates from Indian patients with visceral leishmaniasis treated with MIL. Isolates that were obtained before the onset of MIL treatment, after completion of treatment (29th day), or at the time of treatment failure, were screened using in vitro promastigote assay. The MIL susceptibility of the pre-treatment isolates (N = 24, mean IC50 ± SEM = 3.74 ± 0.38 µM) was significantly higher than that of the post-treatment group (N = 26, mean IC50 ± SEM = 6.15 ± 0.52 µM; P = 0.0006) but was similar in the cured patients (N = 22, mean IC50 ± SEM = 5.58 ± 0.56 µM) and those who failed treatment (N = 28, mean IC50 ± SEM = 4.53 ± 0.47 µM). The pre/post-treatment results thus showed a 2-fold difference, whereas isolated from cured versus failed patients showed a similar susceptibility, suggesting that this higher tolerance is not responsible for MIL-treatment failure. Our work highlights the need for careful monitoring of MIL susceptibility for implementation in national VL elimination programs.

Molecular and serological markers of Leishmania donovani infection in healthy individuals from endemic areas of Bihar, India.

OBJECTIVES: Recent epidemiological reports indicate that asymptomatic human infections with Leishmania donovani, the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis or Kala-azar (KA), occur frequently in India. We explored markers of infection. METHODS: Blood samples were collected from 286 healthy subjects from 16 villages in the Muzaffarpur district of Bihar. These individuals were classified into three groups: (i) persons with no history of KA and living in a house where no KA cases were previously reported, (ii) persons with no history of KA but living in a house where KA cases were diagnosed at the time of sampling or in the past, and (iii) successfully treated KA patients. Each sample was tested using a Leishmania-specific PCR to detect Leishmania DNA, and two serological tests to demonstrate anti-Leishmania antibodies: the Direct Agglutination Test and rK39 ELISA. RESULTS: PCR positivity was similar among the three groups (20-25%). In contrast, among treated patients, the percentage of serologically positive individuals was roughly five times that of healthy individuals with no KA history, as measured with either test. Living in a house where KA had been reported did not affect seropositivity. CONCLUSION: A significant proportion of asymptomatic infections of Leishmania exist in endemic regions. Using a combination of molecular and serological tests increases the capacity to detect infections at different stages. Further work is required to understand the kinetics of the markers.

Retrospective Quarterly Cohort Monitoring for patients with Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: outcomes of a pilot project.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a new tool for the monitoring of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) treatment outcomes in primary healthcare (PHC) settings, adapted from the standardised Retrospective Quarterly Cohort Monitoring done in tuberculosis control. METHODS: We developed standard case definitions for early and late VL treatment outcomes, a single register allowing for one-line entry per patient as registration tool, and quarterly reporting formats for the clinical outcomes. We pilot-tested these tools in three Indian Primary Health Centres and two Nepalese district hospitals, as well as in a charity VL treatment centre and a university hospital. RESULTS: Data collection for early treatment outcome was easily implemented but information on late treatment outcome was hard to obtain. Effectiveness of Miltefosine under routine care conditions was about 87% at end of treatment, and 76% at 6 months post-treatment related to the high number of patients lost to follow up at the latter end point. CONCLUSION: A retrospective cohort monitoring methodology is conceptually a good framework for monitoring clinical outcomes for chronic conditions as VL. The monitoring of early outcomes of VL treatment is perfectly feasible in Primary Care settings. The completeness of information on late outcomes can be improved by a number of strategies that remain to be field tested. Generally, clinical outcome monitoring should be strengthened in the VL control programmes.

Increasing failure of miltefosine in the treatment of Kala-azar in Nepal and the potential role of parasite drug resistance, reinfection, or noncompliance.

BACKGROUND: Miltefosine (MIL), the only oral drug for visceral leishmaniasis (VL), is currently the first-line therapy in the VL elimination program of the Indian subcontinent. Given the paucity of anti-VL drugs and the looming threat of resistance, there is an obvious need for close monitoring of clinical efficacy of MIL. METHODS: In a cohort study of 120 VL patients treated with MIL in Nepal, we monitored the clinical outcomes up to 12 months after completion of therapy and explored the potential role of drug compliance, parasite drug resistance, and reinfection. RESULTS: The initial cure rate was 95.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 92.2-99.4) and the relapse rate at 6 and 12 months was 10.8% (95% CI, 5.2-16.4) and 20.0% (95% CI, 12.8-27.2) , respectively. No significant clinical risk factors of relapse apart from age <12 years were found. Parasite fingerprints of pretreatment and relapse bone marrow isolates within 8 patients were similar, suggesting that clinical relapses were not due to reinfection with a new strain. The mean promastigote MIL susceptibility (50% inhibitory concentration) of isolates from definite cures was similar to that of relapses. Although more tolerant strains were observed, parasite resistance, as currently measured, is thus not likely involved in MIL treatment failure. Moreover, MIL blood levels at the end of treatment were similar in cured and relapsed patients. CONCLUSIONS: Relapse in one-fifth of the MIL-treated patients observed in our study is an alarming signal for the VL elimination campaign, urging for further review and cohort monitoring.

Adherence to miltefosine treatment for visceral leishmaniasis under routine conditions in Nepal.

OBJECTIVE: To assess patient adherence to unsupervised single-drug miltefosine treatment for visceral leishmaniasis and to identify the factors influencing adherence. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study of 171 patients with Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in three healthcare settings in Nepal. Adherence was assessed through pill count, checking of treatment cards and adherence questionnaires, as well as miltefosine concentration measurements at the end of treatment. Poor adherence was defined as less than 90% of required capsules taken. RESULTS: Patient adherence to miltefosine was 83%. Predictors of adherence were being the male sex (OR = 2.60, 95% CI 1.02-6.67) and knowing the duration of treatment (OR = 3.05, 95% CI 1.16-8.04). Adherence was also better for patients who were literate and knew the side effects of treatment. Gastrointestinal side effects and negligence after the resolution of clinical symptoms of VL were the main reasons for poor adherence. Poor adherence was associated (though not statistically significant) with future relapse. CONCLUSION: Effective counselling during the treatment, a short take-home message on VL and on side effects and action of miltefosine, and follow-up visits are the best way to prevent poor adherence. Single end-of-treatment measurements of miltefosine concentrations as objective assessment of adherence would only be useful in addition to the subjective assessments when substantial doses of miltefosine have been missed.