A global transition to flash droughts under climate change.

Flash droughts have occurred frequently worldwide, with a rapid onset that challenges drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities. However, there is no consensus on whether flash droughts have become the new normal because slow droughts may also increase. In this study, we show that drought intensification rates have sped up over subseasonal time scales and that there has been a transition toward more flash droughts over 74% of the global regions identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Extreme Events during the past 64 years. The transition is associated with amplified anomalies of evapotranspiration and precipitation deficit caused by anthropogenic climate change. In the future, the transition is projected to expand to most land areas, with larger increases under higher-emission scenarios. These findings underscore the urgency for adapting to faster-onset droughts in a warmer future.

Global distribution, trends, and drivers of flash drought occurrence.

Flash drought is characterized by a period of rapid drought intensification with impacts on agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, and the human environment. Addressing these challenges requires a fundamental understanding of flash drought occurrence. This study identifies global hotspots for flash drought from 1980-2015 via anomalies in evaporative stress and the standardized evaporative stress ratio. Flash drought hotspots exist over Brazil, the Sahel, the Great Rift Valley, and India, with notable local hotspots over the central United States, southwestern Russia, and northeastern China. Six of the fifteen study regions experienced a statistically significant increase in flash drought during 1980-2015. In contrast, three study regions witnessed a significant decline in flash drought frequency. Finally, the results illustrate that multiple pathways of research are needed to further our understanding of the regional drivers of flash drought and the complex interactions between flash drought and socioeconomic impacts.

Remote sensing of the impact of flash drought events on terrestrial carbon dynamics over China.

BACKGROUND: Flash drought poses a great threat to terrestrial ecosystems and influences carbon dynamics due to its unusually rapid onset and increasing frequency in a warming climate. Understanding the response of regional terrestrial carbon dynamics to flash drought requires long-term observations of carbon fluxes and soil moisture at a large scale. Here, MODIS satellite observations of ecosystem productivity and ERA5 reanalysis modeling of soil moisture are used to detect the response of ecosystems to flash drought over China. RESULTS: The results show that GPP, NPP, and LAI respond to 79-86% of the flash drought events over China, with highest and lowest response frequency for NPP and LAI, respectively. The discrepancies in the response of GPP, NPP, and LAI to flash drought result from vegetation physiological and structural changes. The negative anomalies of GPP, NPP, and LAI occur within 19 days after the start of flash drought, with the fastest response occurring over North China, and slower responses in southern and northeastern China. Water use efficiency (WUE) is increased in most regions of China except for western regions during flash drought, illustrating the resilience of ecosystems to rapid changes in soil moisture conditions. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows the rapid response of ecosystems to flash drought based on remote-sensing observations, especially for northern China with semiarid climates. Besides, NPP is more sensitive than GPP and LAI to flash drought under the influence of vegetation respiration and physiological regulations. Although the mean WUE increases during flash drought over most of China, western China shows less resilience to flash drought with little changes in WUE during the recovery stage. This study highlights the impacts of flash drought on ecosystems and the necessity to monitor rapid drought intensification.