British Axial Spondyloarthritis Inception Cohort (BAxSIC): a protocol for a multicentre real-world observational cohort study of early axial spondyloarthritis.

Objectives: Timely diagnosis remains a challenge in axial SpA (axSpA). In addition, data are scarce on the impact of diagnostic delay and disease progression in affected individuals. The British Axial Spondyloarthritis Inception Cohort (BAxSIC) study aims to investigate the impact of newly diagnosed axSpA, the natural history of the disease and the effect of diagnostic delay on disease outcomes. Methods: BAxSIC is a prospective, multicentre, observational study. Eligible participants are adults (≥16 years of age), with a physician-confirmed diagnosis of axSpA in the 6 months prior to study entry, recruited from secondary and tertiary rheumatology centres in the UK. Participants will be followed up for 3 years, with in-person visits at baseline and 24 months. In addition, patient self-reported assessments will be recorded remotely via the online electronic case report form (eCRF) at 6, 12, 18, 30 and 36 months. Results: The first patient was enrolled in BAxSIC in June 2023. Recruitment is currently ongoing and is planned to end in June 2026. Initial results will be available in 2027. Since opening, the trial has undergone two protocol amendments. Conclusion: The BAxSIC study is the first inception cohort designed to investigate the impact of diagnostic delay on clinical presentation and long-term functional outcomes in patients with axSpA in the UK. With an innovative, patient-led virtual longitudinal data collection model, data generated from this study will help inform and improve the care of people newly diagnosed with axSpA. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (http://clinicaltrials.gov), NCT05676775.

Enhanced surveillance for the detection of psoriatic arthritis in a UK primary care psoriasis population: results from the TUDOR trial.

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to determine whether early detection of undiagnosed psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in a primary care psoriasis population improves outcome in physical function at 24 months post-registration. METHODS: A multicentre, prospective, parallel group cluster randomised controlled trial in patients with psoriasis was conducted. Participants with suspected inflammatory arthritis on screening were referred for an assessment of PsA (enhanced surveillance (ES) arm: at baseline, 12 and 24 months; standard care (SC) arm: at 24 months). The primary outcome measure was the Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index (HAQ-DI) at 24 months post registration in participants diagnosed with PsA. RESULTS: A total of 2225 participants across 135 GP practices registered: 1123 allocated to ES and 1102 to SC. The primary analysis population consisted of 87 participants with a positive diagnosis of PsA: 64 in ES, 23 in SC. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) for achieving a HAQ-DI score of 0 at 24 months post registration in ES compared with SC was 0.64 (95% CI (0.17, 2.38)), and the adjusted OR of achieving a higher (non-zero) HAQ-DI score at 24 months post registration in ES relative to SC arm was 1.12 (95% CI: 0.67, 1.86), indicating no evidence of a difference between the two treatment groups (p= 0.66). CONCLUSION: The trial was underpowered for demonstrating the prespecified treatment effect; in patients with psoriasis there was no evidence that early diagnosis of PsA by ES in primary care changes physical function at 24 months compared with SC. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: The TUDOR trial is registered as ISRCTN38877516.

Granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor neutralisation in patients with axial spondyloarthritis in the UK (NAMASTE): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) is a proinflammatory cytokine overproduced in several inflammatory and autoimmune diseases, including axial spondyloarthritis. Namilumab is a human IgG1 monoclonal anti-GM-CSF antibody that potently neutralises human GM-CSF. We aimed to assess the efficacy of namilumab in participants with moderate-to-severe active axial spondyloarthritis. METHODS: This proof-of-concept, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2, Bayesian (NAMASTE) trial was done at nine hospitals in the UK. Participants aged 18-75 years with axial spondyloarthritis, meeting the Assessment in SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS) criteria and the ASAS-defined MRI criteria, with active disease as defined by a Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI), were eligible. Those who had inadequately responded or had intolerance to previous treatment with an anti-TNF agent were included. Participants were randomly assigned (6:1) to receive subcutaneous namilumab 150 mg or placebo at weeks 0, 2, 6, and 10. Participants, site staff (except pharmacy staff), and central study staff were masked to treatment assignment. The primary endpoint was the proportion of participants who had an ASAS ≥20% improvement (ASAS20) clinical response at week 12 in the full analysis set (all randomly assigned participants). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03622658). FINDINGS: From Sept 6, 2018, to July 25, 2019, 60 patients with moderate-to-severe active axial spondyloarthritis were assessed for eligibility and 42 were randomly assigned to receive namilumab (n=36) or placebo (n=six). The mean age of participants was 39·5 years (SD 13·3), 17 were women, 25 were men, 39 were White, and seven had previously received anti-TNF therapy. The primary endpoint was not met. At week 12, the proportion of patients who had an ASAS20 clinical response was lower in the namilumab group (14 of 36) than in the placebo group (three of six; estimated between-group difference 6·8%). The Bayesian posterior probability η was 0·72 (>0·927 suggests high clinical significance). The rates of any treatment-emergent adverse events in the namilumab group were similar to those in the placebo group (31 vs five). INTERPRETATION: Namilumab did not show efficacy compared with placebo in patients with active axial spondyloarthritis, but the treatment was generally well tolerated. FUNDING: Izana Bioscience, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (BRC), NIHR Birmingham BRC, and Clinical Research Facility.

The predictive role of symptoms in COVID-19 diagnostic models: A longitudinal insight.

To investigate the symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection, their dynamics and their discriminatory power for the disease using longitudinally, prospectively collected information reported at the time of their occurrence. We have analysed data from a large phase 3 clinical UK COVID-19 vaccine trial. The alpha variant was the predominant strain. Participants were assessed for SARS-CoV-2 infection via nasal/throat PCR at recruitment, vaccination appointments, and when symptomatic. Statistical techniques were implemented to infer estimates representative of the UK population, accounting for multiple symptomatic episodes associated with one individual. An optimal diagnostic model for SARS-CoV-2 infection was derived. The 4-month prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was 2.1%; increasing to 19.4% (16.0%-22.7%) in participants reporting loss of appetite and 31.9% (27.1%-36.8%) in those with anosmia/ageusia. The model identified anosmia and/or ageusia, fever, congestion, and cough to be significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Symptoms' dynamics were vastly different in the two groups; after a slow start peaking later and lasting longer in PCR+ participants, whilst exhibiting a consistent decline in PCR- participants, with, on average, fewer than 3 days of symptoms reported. Anosmia/ageusia peaked late in confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (day 12), indicating a low discrimination power for early disease diagnosis.