The GenoPred pipeline: a comprehensive and scalable pipeline for polygenic scoring.

MOTIVATION: Polygenic scoring is an approach for estimating an individual's likelihood of a given outcome. Polygenic scores are typically calculated from genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics and individual-level genotype data for the target sample. Going from genotype to interpretable polygenic scores involves many steps and there are many methods available, limiting the accessibility of polygenic scores for research and clinical application. Additional challenges exist for studies in ancestrally diverse populations. We have implemented the leading polygenic scoring methodologies within an easy-to-use pipeline called GenoPred. RESULTS: Here, we present the GenoPred pipeline, an easy-to-use, high-performance, reference-standardized, and reproducible workflow for polygenic scoring. It requires minimal inputs and offers various configuration options to cater to a range of use cases. GenoPred implements a comprehensive set of analyses, including genotype and GWAS quality control, target sample ancestry inference, polygenic score file generation using a range of leading methods, and target sample scoring. GenoPred standardizes the polygenic scoring process using reference genetic data, providing interpretable polygenic scores. The pipeline is applicable to GWAS and targets data from any population within the reference, facilitating studies of diverse ancestry. GenoPred is a Snakemake pipeline with associated Conda software environments, ensuring reproducibility. We apply the pipeline to UK Biobank data demonstrating the pipeline's simplicity, efficiency, and performance. The GenoPred pipeline provides a novel resource for polygenic scoring, integrating a range of complex processes within an easy-to-use framework. GenoPred widens access to the leading polygenic scoring methodology and their application to studies of diverse ancestry. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Freely available on the web at https://github.com/opain/GenoPred.

Harnessing transcriptomic signals for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis to identify novel drugs and enhance risk prediction.

Introduction: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease. This study integrates common genetic association results from the latest ALS genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics with functional genomic annotations with the aim of providing mechanistic insights into ALS risk loci, inferring drug repurposing opportunities, and enhancing prediction of ALS risk and clinical characteristics. Methods: Genes associated with ALS were identified using GWAS summary statistic methodology including SuSiE SNP-based fine-mapping, and transcriptome- and proteome-wide association study (TWAS/PWAS) analyses. Using several approaches, gene associations were integrated with the DrugTargetor drug-gene interaction database to identify drugs that could be repurposed for the treatment of ALS. Furthermore, ALS gene associations from TWAS were combined with observed blood expression in two external ALS case-control datasets to calculate polytranscriptomic scores and evaluate their utility for prediction of ALS risk and clinical characteristics, including site of onset, age at onset, and survival. Results: SNP-based fine-mapping, TWAS and PWAS identified 118 genes associated with ALS, with TWAS and PWAS providing novel mechanistic insights. Drug repurposing analyses identified six drugs significantly enriched for interactions with ALS associated genes, though directionality could not be determined. Additionally, drug class enrichment analysis showed gene signatures linked to calcium channel blockers may reduce ALS risk, whereas antiepileptic drugs may increase ALS risk. Across the two observed expression target samples, ALS polytranscriptomic scores significantly predicted ALS risk (R 2 = 5.1 %; p-value = 3.2 × 10-27) and clinical characteristics. Conclusions: Functionally-informed analyses of ALS GWAS summary statistics identified novel mechanistic insights into ALS aetiology, highlighted several therapeutic research avenues, and enabled statistically significant prediction of ALS risk.

Ancestry-aligned polygenic scores combined with conventional risk factors improve prediction of cardiometabolic outcomes in African populations.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a major health concern in Africa. Improved identification and treatment of high-risk individuals can reduce adverse health outcomes. Current CVD risk calculators are largely unvalidated in African populations and overlook genetic factors. Polygenic scores (PGS) can enhance risk prediction by measuring genetic susceptibility to CVD, but their effectiveness in genetically diverse populations is limited by a European-ancestry bias. To address this, we developed models integrating genetic data and conventional risk factors to assess the risk of developing cardiometabolic outcomes in African populations. METHODS: We used summary statistics from a genome-wide association meta-analysis (n = 14,126) in African populations to derive novel genome-wide PGS for 14 cardiometabolic traits in an independent African target sample (Africa Wits-INDEPTH Partnership for Genomic Research (AWI-Gen), n = 10,603). Regression analyses assessed relationships between each PGS and corresponding cardiometabolic trait, and seven CVD outcomes (CVD, heart attack, stroke, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, and obesity). The predictive utility of the genetic data was evaluated using elastic net models containing multiple PGS (MultiPGS) and reference-projected principal components of ancestry (PPCs). An integrated risk prediction model incorporating genetic and conventional risk factors was developed. Nested cross-validation was used when deriving elastic net models to enhance generalisability. RESULTS: Our African-specific PGS displayed significant but variable within- and cross- trait prediction (max.R2 = 6.8%, p = 1.86 × 10-173). Significantly associated PGS with dyslipidaemia included the PGS for total cholesterol (logOR = 0.210, SE = 0.022, p = 2.18 × 10-21) and low-density lipoprotein (logOR = - 0.141, SE = 0.022, p = 1.30 × 10-20); with hypertension, the systolic blood pressure PGS (logOR = 0.150, SE = 0.045, p = 8.34 × 10-4); and multiple PGS associated with obesity: body mass index (max. logOR = 0.131, SE = 0.031, p = 2.22 × 10-5), hip circumference (logOR = 0.122, SE = 0.029, p = 2.28 × 10-5), waist circumference (logOR = 0.013, SE = 0.098, p = 8.13 × 10-4) and weight (logOR = 0.103, SE = 0.029, p = 4.89 × 10-5). Elastic net models incorporating MultiPGS and PPCs significantly improved prediction over MultiPGS alone. Models including genetic data and conventional risk factors were more predictive than conventional risk models alone (dyslipidaemia: R2 increase = 2.6%, p = 4.45 × 10-12; hypertension: R2 increase = 2.6%, p = 2.37 × 10-13; obesity: R2 increase = 5.5%, 1.33 × 10-34). CONCLUSIONS: In African populations, CVD and associated cardiometabolic trait prediction models can be improved by incorporating ancestry-aligned PGS and accounting for ancestry. Combining PGS with conventional risk factors further enhances prediction over traditional models based on conventional factors. Incorporating data from target populations can improve the generalisability of international predictive models for CVD and associated traits in African populations.

Metabolic activity of CYP2C19 and CYP2D6 on antidepressant response from 13 clinical studies using genotype imputation: a meta-analysis.

Cytochrome P450 enzymes including CYP2C19 and CYP2D6 are important for antidepressant metabolism and polymorphisms of these genes have been determined to predict metabolite levels. Nonetheless, more evidence is needed to understand the impact of genetic variations on antidepressant response. In this study, individual clinical and genetic data from 13 studies of European and East Asian ancestry populations were collected. The antidepressant response was clinically assessed as remission and percentage improvement. Imputed genotype was used to translate genetic polymorphisms to metabolic phenotypes (poor, intermediate, normal, and rapid+ultrarapid) of CYP2C19 and CYP2D6. CYP2D6 structural variants cannot be imputed from genotype data, limiting the determination of metabolic phenotypes, and precluding testing for association with response. The association of CYP2C19 metabolic phenotypes with treatment response was examined using normal metabolizers as the reference. Among 5843 depression patients, a higher remission rate was found in CYP2C19 poor metabolizers compared to normal metabolizers at nominal significance but did not survive after multiple testing correction (OR = 1.46, 95% CI [1.03, 2.06], p = 0.033, heterogeneity I2 = 0%, subgroup difference p = 0.72). No metabolic phenotype was associated with percentage improvement from baseline. After stratifying by antidepressants primarily metabolized by CYP2C19, no association was found between metabolic phenotypes and antidepressant response. Metabolic phenotypes showed differences in frequency, but not effect, between European- and East Asian-ancestry studies. In conclusion, metabolic phenotypes imputed from genetic variants using genotype were not associated with antidepressant response. CYP2C19 poor metabolizers could potentially contribute to antidepressant efficacy with more evidence needed. Sequencing and targeted pharmacogenetic testing, alongside information on side effects, antidepressant dosage, depression measures, and diverse ancestry studies, would more fully capture the influence of metabolic phenotypes.

Evaluation of polygenic scoring methods in five biobanks shows larger variation between biobanks than methods and finds benefits of ensemble learning.

Methods of estimating polygenic scores (PGSs) from genome-wide association studies are increasingly utilized. However, independent method evaluation is lacking, and method comparisons are often limited. Here, we evaluate polygenic scores derived via seven methods in five biobank studies (totaling about 1.2 million participants) across 16 diseases and quantitative traits, building on a reference-standardized framework. We conducted meta-analyses to quantify the effects of method choice, hyperparameter tuning, method ensembling, and the target biobank on PGS performance. We found that no single method consistently outperformed all others. PGS effect sizes were more variable between biobanks than between methods within biobanks when methods were well tuned. Differences between methods were largest for the two investigated autoimmune diseases, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis and type 1 diabetes. For most methods, cross-validation was more reliable for tuning hyperparameters than automatic tuning (without the use of target data). For a given target phenotype, elastic net models combining PGS across methods (ensemble PGS) tuned in the UK Biobank provided consistent, high, and cross-biobank transferable performance, increasing PGS effect sizes (ß coefficients) by a median of 5.0% relative to LDpred2 and MegaPRS (the two best-performing single methods when tuned with cross-validation). Our interactively browsable online-results and open-source workflow prspipe provide a rich resource and reference for the analysis of polygenic scoring methods across biobanks.

Integrating human endogenous retroviruses into transcriptome-wide association studies highlights novel risk factors for major psychiatric conditions.

Human endogenous retroviruses (HERVs) are repetitive elements previously implicated in major psychiatric conditions, but their role in aetiology remains unclear. Here, we perform specialised transcriptome-wide association studies that consider HERV expression quantified to precise genomic locations, using RNA sequencing and genetic data from 792 post-mortem brain samples. In Europeans, we identify 1238 HERVs with expression regulated in cis, of which 26 represent expression signals associated with psychiatric disorders, with ten being conditionally independent from neighbouring expression signals. Of these, five are additionally significant in fine-mapping analyses and thus are considered high confidence risk HERVs. These include two HERV expression signatures specific to schizophrenia risk, one shared between schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, and one specific to major depressive disorder. No robust signatures are identified for autism spectrum conditions or attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in Europeans, or for any psychiatric trait in other ancestries, although this is likely a result of relatively limited statistical power. Ultimately, our study highlights extensive HERV expression and regulation in the adult cortex, including in association with psychiatric disorder risk, therefore providing a rationale for exploring neurological HERV expression in complex neuropsychiatric traits.

Psychosis Endophenotypes: A Gene-Set-Specific Polygenic Risk Score Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Endophenotypes can help to bridge the gap between psychosis and its genetic predispositions, but their underlying mechanisms remain largely unknown. This study aims to identify biological mechanisms that are relevant to the endophenotypes for psychosis, by partitioning polygenic risk scores into specific gene sets and testing their associations with endophenotypes. STUDY DESIGN: We computed polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder restricted to brain-related gene sets retrieved from public databases and previous publications. Three hundred and seventy-eight gene-set-specific polygenic risk scores were generated for 4506 participants. Seven endophenotypes were also measured in the sample. Linear mixed-effects models were fitted to test associations between each endophenotype and each gene-set-specific polygenic risk score. STUDY RESULTS: After correction for multiple testing, we found that a reduced P300 amplitude was associated with a higher schizophrenia polygenic risk score of the forebrain regionalization gene set (mean difference per SD increase in the polygenic risk score: -1.15 µV; 95% CI: -1.70 to -0.59 µV; P = 6 × 10-5). The schizophrenia polygenic risk score of forebrain regionalization also explained more variance of the P300 amplitude (R2 = 0.032) than other polygenic risk scores, including the genome-wide polygenic risk scores. CONCLUSIONS: Our finding on reduced P300 amplitudes suggests that certain genetic variants alter early brain development thereby increasing schizophrenia risk years later. Gene-set-specific polygenic risk scores are a useful tool to elucidate biological mechanisms of psychosis and endophenotypes, offering leads for experimental validation in cellular and animal models.

Meta-analysis of CYP2C19 and CYP2D6 metabolic activity on antidepressant response from 13 clinical studies using genotype imputation.

Cytochrome P450 enzymes including CYP2C19 and CYP2D6 are important for antidepressant metabolism and polymorphisms of these genes have been determined to predict metabolite levels. Nonetheless, more evidence is needed to understand the impact of genetic variations on antidepressant response. In this study, individual clinical and genetic data from 13 studies of European and East Asian ancestry populations were collected. The antidepressant response was clinically assessed as remission and percentage improvement. Imputed genotype was used to translate genetic polymorphisms to metabolic phenotypes (poor, intermediate, normal, and rapid+ultrarapid) of CYP2C19 and CYP2D6. The association of CYP2C19 and CYP2D6 metabolic phenotypes with treatment response was examined using normal metabolizers as the reference. Among 5843 depression patients, a higher remission rate was found in CYP2C19 poor metabolizers compared to normal metabolizers at nominal significance but did not survive after multiple testing correction (OR=1.46, 95% CI [1.03, 2.06], p=0.033, heterogeneity I2=0%, subgroup difference p=0.72). No metabolic phenotype was associated with percentage improvement from baseline. After stratifying by antidepressants primarily metabolized by CYP2C19 and CYP2D6, no association was found between metabolic phenotypes and antidepressant response. Metabolic phenotypes showed differences in frequency, but not effect, between European- and East Asian-ancestry studies. In conclusion, metabolic phenotypes imputed from genetic variants using genotype were not associated with antidepressant response. CYP2C19 poor metabolizers could potentially contribute to antidepressant efficacy with more evidence needed. CYP2D6 structural variants cannot be imputed from genotype data, limiting inference of pharmacogenetic effects. Sequencing and targeted pharmacogenetic testing, alongside information on side effects, antidepressant dosage, depression measures, and diverse ancestry studies, would more fully capture the influence of metabolic phenotypes.

Stratified genome-wide association analysis of type 2 diabetes reveals subgroups with genetic and environmental heterogeneity.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous illness caused by genetic and environmental factors. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many genetic variants associated with T2D and found evidence of differing genetic profiles by age-at-onset. This study seeks to explore further the genetic and environmental drivers of T2D by analyzing subgroups on the basis of age-at-onset of diabetes and body mass index (BMI). In the UK Biobank, 36 494 T2D cases were stratified into three subgroups, and GWAS was performed for all T2D cases and for each subgroup relative to 421 021 controls. Altogether, 18 single nucleotide polymorphisms were significantly associated with T2D genome-wide in one or more subgroups and also showed evidence of heterogeneity between the subgroups (Cochrane's Q P < 0.01), with two SNPs remaining significant after multiple testing (in CDKN2B and CYTIP). Combined risk scores, on the basis of genetic profile, BMI and age, resulted in excellent diabetes prediction [area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.92]. A modest improvement in prediction (AUC = 0.93) was seen when the contribution of genetic and environmental factors was evaluated separately for each subgroup. Increasing sample sizes of genetic studies enables us to stratify disease cases into subgroups, which have sufficient power to highlight areas of genetic heterogeneity. Despite some evidence that optimizing combined risk scores by subgroup improves prediction, larger sample sizes are likely needed for prediction when using a stratification approach.

Could interventions on physical activity mitigate genomic liability for obesity? Applying the health disparity framework in genetically informed studies.

Polygenic scores (PGS) are now commonly available in longitudinal cohort studies, leading to their integration into epidemiological research. In this work, our aim is to explore how polygenic scores can be used as exposures in causal inference-based methods, specifically mediation analyses. We propose to estimate the extent to which the association of a polygenic score indexing genetic liability to an outcome could be mitigated by a potential intervention on a mediator. To do this this, we use the interventional disparity measure approach, which allows us to compare the adjusted total effect of an exposure on an outcome, with the association that would remain had we intervened on a potentially modifiable mediator. As an example, we analyse data from two UK cohorts, the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS, N = 2575) and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC, N = 3347). In both, the exposure is genetic liability for obesity (indicated by a PGS for BMI), the outcome is late childhood/early adolescent BMI, and the mediator and potential intervention target is physical activity, measured between exposure and outcome. Our results suggest that a potential intervention on child physical activity can mitigate some of the genetic liability for childhood obesity. We propose that including PGSs in a health disparity measure approach, and causal inference-based methods more broadly, is a valuable addition to the study of gene-environment interplay in complex health outcomes.

Harnessing Transcriptomic Signals for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis to Identify Novel Drugs and Enhance Risk Prediction.

Introduction: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease. This study integrates the latest ALS genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics with functional genomic annotations with the aim of providing mechanistic insights into ALS risk loci, inferring drug repurposing opportunities, and enhancing prediction of ALS risk and clinical characteristics. Methods: Genes associated with ALS were identified using GWAS summary statistic methodology including SuSiE SNP-based fine-mapping, and transcriptome- and proteome-wide association study (TWAS/PWAS) analyses. Using several approaches, gene associations were integrated with the DrugTargetor drug-gene interaction database to identify drugs that could be repurposed for the treatment of ALS. Furthermore, ALS gene associations from TWAS were combined with observed blood expression in two external ALS case-control datasets to calculate polytranscriptomic scores and evaluate their utility for prediction of ALS risk and clinical characteristics, including site of onset, age at onset, and survival. Results: SNP-based fine-mapping, TWAS and PWAS identified 117 genes associated with ALS, with TWAS and PWAS providing novel mechanistic insights. Drug repurposing analyses identified five drugs significantly enriched for interactions with ALS associated genes, with directional analyses highlighting α-glucosidase inhibitors may exacerbate ALS pathology. Additionally, drug class enrichment analysis showed calcium channel blockers may reduce ALS risk. Across the two observed expression target samples, ALS polytranscriptomic scores significantly predicted ALS risk (R2 = 4%; p-value = 2.1×10-21). Conclusions: Functionally-informed analyses of ALS GWAS summary statistics identified novel mechanistic insights into ALS aetiology, highlighted several therapeutic research avenues, and enabled statistically significant prediction of ALS risk.

Clinicians' Perceptions towards Precision Medicine Tools for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Stratification in South Africa.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in South Africa. Risk stratification is the preferred approach to disease prevention, but identifying patients at high risk for CVD remains challenging. Assessing genetic risk could improve stratification and inform a clinically relevant precision medicine (PM) approach. Clinicians are critical to PM adoption, thus, this study explores practicing clinicians' perceptions of PM-based CVD risk stratification in South Africa's public health setting. Practicing clinicians (n = 109) at four teaching hospitals in Johannesburg, South Africa, completed an electronic self-administered survey. The effect of demographic and professional characteristics on PM-based CVD risk stratification perceptions was assessed. Fewer than 25% of respondents used clinical genetic testing, and 14% had formal genetics training. 78% had a low mean knowledge score, with higher scores associated with genetic training (p < 0.0005) and research involvement (p < 0.05). Despite limited knowledge and resources, 84% perceived PM approaches positively. 57% felt confident in applying the PM-based approach, with those already undertaking CVD risk stratification more confident (p < 0.001). High cost and limited access to genetics services are key barriers. Integrating genetic information into established clinical tools will likely increase confidence in using PM approaches. Addressing the genetics training gap and investment into the country's genomics capacity is needed to advance PM in South Africa.

Transcriptome-wide association study of HIV-1 acquisition identifies HERC1 as a susceptibility gene.

The host genetic factors conferring protection against HIV type 1 (HIV-1) acquisition remain elusive, and in particular the contributions of common genetic variants. Here, we performed the largest genome-wide association meta-analysis of HIV-1 acquisition, which included 7,303 HIV-1-positive individuals and 587,343 population controls. We identified 25 independent genetic loci with suggestive association, of which one was genome-wide significant within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) locus. After exclusion of the MHC signal, linkage disequilibrium score regression analyses revealed a SNP heritability of 21% and genetic correlations with behavioral factors. A transcriptome-wide association study identified 15 susceptibility genes, including HERC1, UEVLD, and HIST1H4K. Convergent evidence from conditional analyses and fine-mapping identified HERC1 downregulation in immune cells as a robust mechanism associated with HIV-1 acquisition. Functional studies on HERC1 and other identified candidates, as well as larger genetic studies, have the potential to further our understanding of the host mechanisms associated with protection against HIV-1.

The consequences of a year of the COVID-19 pandemic for the mental health of young adult twins in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all our lives, not only through the infection itself but also through the measures taken to control the spread of the virus (e.g. lockdown). AIMS: Here, we investigated how the COVID-19 pandemic and unprecedented lockdown affected the mental health of young adults in England and Wales. METHOD: We compared the mental health symptoms of up to 4773 twins in their mid-20s in 2018 prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (T1) and during four-wave longitudinal data collection during the pandemic in April, July and October 2020, and in March 2021 (T2-T5) using phenotypic and genetic longitudinal designs. RESULTS: The average changes in mental health were small to medium and mainly occurred from T1 to T2 (average Cohen d = 0.14). Despite the expectation of catastrophic effects of the pandemic on mental health, we did not observe trends in worsening mental health during the pandemic (T3-T5). Young people with pre-existing mental health problems were disproportionately affected at the beginning of the pandemic, but their increased problems largely subsided as the pandemic persisted. Twin analyses indicated that the aetiology of individual differences in mental health symptoms did not change during the lockdown (average heritability 33%); the average genetic correlation between T1 and T2-T5 was 0.95, indicating that genetic effects before the pandemic were substantially correlated with genetic effects up to a year later. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that on average the mental health of young adults in England and Wales has been remarkably resilient to the effects of the pandemic and associated lockdown.

Identifying the Common Genetic Basis of Antidepressant Response.

Background: Antidepressants are a first-line treatment for depression. However, only a third of individuals experience remission after the first treatment. Common genetic variation, in part, likely regulates antidepressant response, yet the success of previous genome-wide association studies has been limited by sample size. This study performs the largest genetic analysis of prospectively assessed antidepressant response in major depressive disorder to gain insight into the underlying biology and enable out-of-sample prediction. Methods: Genome-wide analysis of remission (n remit = 1852, n nonremit = 3299) and percentage improvement (n = 5218) was performed. Single nucleotide polymorphism-based heritability was estimated using genome-wide complex trait analysis. Genetic covariance with eight mental health phenotypes was estimated using polygenic scores/AVENGEME. Out-of-sample prediction of antidepressant response polygenic scores was assessed. Gene-level association analysis was performed using MAGMA and transcriptome-wide association study. Tissue, pathway, and drug binding enrichment were estimated using MAGMA. Results: Neither genome-wide association study identified genome-wide significant associations. Single nucleotide polymorphism-based heritability was significantly different from zero for remission (h 2 = 0.132, SE = 0.056) but not for percentage improvement (h 2 = -0.018, SE = 0.032). Better antidepressant response was negatively associated with genetic risk for schizophrenia and positively associated with genetic propensity for educational attainment. Leave-one-out validation of antidepressant response polygenic scores demonstrated significant evidence of out-of-sample prediction, though results varied in external cohorts. Gene-based analyses identified ETV4 and DHX8 as significantly associated with antidepressant response. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that antidepressant response is influenced by common genetic variation, has a genetic overlap schizophrenia and educational attainment, and provides a useful resource for future research. Larger sample sizes are required to attain the potential of genetics for understanding and predicting antidepressant response.

Exploring polygenic-environment and residual-environment interactions for depressive symptoms within the UK Biobank.

Substantial advances have been made in identifying genetic contributions to depression, but little is known about how the effect of genes can be modulated by the environment, creating a gene-environment interaction. Using multivariate reaction norm models (MRNMs) within the UK Biobank (N = 61294-91644), we investigate whether the polygenic and residual variance components of depressive symptoms are modulated by 17 a priori selected covariate traits-12 environmental variables and 5 biomarkers. MRNMs, a mixed-effects modelling approach, provide unbiased polygenic-covariate interaction estimates for a quantitative trait by controlling for outcome-covariate correlations and residual-covariate interactions. A continuous depressive symptom variable was the outcome in 17 MRNMs-one for each covariate trait. Each MRNM had a fixed-effects model (fixed effects included the covariate trait, demographic variables, and principal components) and a random effects model (where polygenic-covariate and residual-covariate interactions are modelled). Of the 17 selected covariates, 11 significantly modulate deviations in depressive symptoms through the modelled interactions, but no single interaction explains a large proportion of phenotypic variation. Results are dominated by residual-covariate interactions, suggesting that covariate traits (including neuroticism, childhood trauma, and BMI) typically interact with unmodelled variables, rather than a genome-wide polygenic component, to influence depressive symptoms. Only average sleep duration has a polygenic-covariate interaction explaining a demonstrably nonzero proportion of the variability in depressive symptoms. This effect is small, accounting for only 1.22% (95% confidence interval: [0.54, 1.89]) of variation. The presence of an interaction highlights a specific focus for intervention, but the negative results here indicate a limited contribution from polygenic-environment interactions.

A tool for translating polygenic scores onto the absolute scale using summary statistics.

There is growing interest in the clinical application of polygenic scores as their predictive utility increases for a range of health-related phenotypes. However, providing polygenic score predictions on the absolute scale is an important step for their safe interpretation. We have developed a method to convert polygenic scores to the absolute scale for binary and normally distributed phenotypes. This method uses summary statistics, requiring only the area-under-the-ROC curve (AUC) or variance explained (R2) by the polygenic score, and the prevalence of binary phenotypes, or mean and standard deviation of normally distributed phenotypes. Polygenic scores are converted using normal distribution theory. We also evaluate methods for estimating polygenic score AUC/R2 from genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics alone. We validate the absolute risk conversion and AUC/R2 estimation using data for eight binary and three continuous phenotypes in the UK Biobank sample. When the AUC/R2 of the polygenic score is known, the observed and estimated absolute values were highly concordant. Estimates of AUC/R2 from the lassosum pseudovalidation method were most similar to the observed AUC/R2 values, though estimated values deviated substantially from the observed for autoimmune disorders. This study enables accurate interpretation of polygenic scores using only summary statistics, providing a useful tool for educational and clinical purposes. Furthermore, we have created interactive webtools implementing the conversion to the absolute ( https://opain.github.io/GenoPred/PRS_to_Abs_tool.html ). Several further barriers must be addressed before clinical implementation of polygenic scores, such as ensuring target individuals are well represented by the GWAS sample.