J-shape relation of blood pressure reduction and outcome in acute intracerebral hemorrhage: A pooled analysis of INTERACT2 and ATACH-II individual participant data.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to better define the shape of association between the degree ("magnitude") of early (< 1 h) reduction in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and outcomes in patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) through pooled analysis of the second Intensive Blood Pressure Reduction in Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage Trial (INTERACT2) and second Antihypertensive Treatment of Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage (ATACH-II) datasets. METHODS: Association of the continuous magnitude of SBP reduction described using cubic splines and an ordinal measure of the functional outcome on the modified Rankin scale (mRS) scores at 90 days were analyzed in generalized linear mixed models. Models were adjusted for achieved (mean) and variability (standard deviation, SD) of SBP between 1 and 24 h, various baseline covariates, and trial as a random effect. RESULTS: Among 3796 patients (mean age 63.1 (SD = 13.0) years; female 37.4%), with a mean magnitude (< 1 h) of SBP reduction of 28.5 (22.8) mmHg, those with larger magnitude were more often non-Asian and female, had higher baseline SBP, received multiple blood pressure (BP) lowering agents, and achieved lower SBP levels in 1-24 h. Compared to those patients with no SBP reduction within 1 h (reference), the adjusted odds of unfavorable functional outcome, according to a shift in mRS scores, were lower for SBP reductions up to 60 mmHg with an inflection point between 32 and 46 mmHg, but significantly higher for SBP reductions > 70 mmHg. Similar J-shape associations were evident across various time epochs across 24 h and consistent according to baseline hematoma volume and SBP and history of hypertension. INTERPRETATION: A moderate degree of rapid SBP lowering is associated with improved functional outcome after ICH, but large SBP reductions over 1 h (e.g. from > 200 to target < 140 mmHg) were associated with reduction, or reversal, of any such benefit.

Intensive blood pressure lowering with nicardipine and outcomes after intracerebral hemorrhage: An individual participant data systematic review.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Nicardipine has strong, rapidly acting antihypertensive activity. The effects of acute systolic blood pressure levels achieved with intravenous nicardipine after onset of intracerebral hemorrhage on clinical outcomes were determined. METHODS: A systematic review and individual participant data analysis of articles before 1 October 2020 identified on PubMed were performed (PROSPERO: CRD42020213857). Prospective studies involving hyperacute intracerebral hemorrhage adults treated with intravenous nicardipine whose outcome was assessed using the modified Rankin Scale were eligible. Outcomes included death or disability at 90 days, defined as the modified Rankin Scale score of 4-6, and hematoma expansion, defined as an increase ≥6 mL from baseline to 24-h computed tomography. SUMMARY OF REVIEW: Three studies met the eligibility criteria. For 1265 patients enrolled (age 62.6 ± 13.0 years, 484 women), death or disability occurred in 38.2% and hematoma expansion occurred in 17.4%. Mean hourly systolic blood pressure during the initial 24 h was positively associated with death or disability (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.26 per 10 mmHg) and hematoma expansion (1.16, 1.02-1.32). Mean hourly systolic blood pressure from 1 h to any timepoint during the initial 24 h was positively associated with death or disability. Later achievement of systolic blood pressure to ≤140 mmHg increased the risk of death or disability (aOR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.05 per hour). CONCLUSIONS: Rapid lowering of systolic blood pressure by continuous administration of intravenous nicardipine during the initial 24 h in hyperacute intracerebral hemorrhage was associated with lower risks of hematoma expansion and 90-day death or disability without increasing serious adverse events.

Regional Differences in the Response to Acute Blood Pressure Lowering After Cerebral Hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the impact of intensive blood pressure (BP) lowering right after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) on clinical and hematoma outcomes among patients from different geographic locations, we performed a prespecified subanalysis of a randomized, multinational, 2-group, open-label trial to determine the efficacy of rapidly lowering BP in hyperacute ICH (Antihypertensive Treatment of Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage [ATACH]-2), involving 537 patients from East Asia and 463 recruited outside of Asia. METHODS: Eligible patients were randomly assigned to a systolic BP target of 110 to 139 mm Hg (intensive treatment) or 140 to 179 mm Hg (standard treatment). Predefined outcomes were poor functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 4-6 at 90 days), death within 90 days, hematoma expansion at 24 hours, and cardiorenal adverse events within 7 days. RESULTS: Poor functional outcomes (32.0% vs 45.9%), death (1.9% vs 13.3%), and cardiorenal adverse events (3.9% vs 11.2%) occurred significantly less frequently in patients from Asia than those outside of Asia. The treatment-by-cohort interaction was not significant for any outcomes. Only patients from Asia showed a lower incidence of hematoma expansion with intensive treatment (adjusted relative risk [RR] 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.38-0.83). Both Asian (RR 3.53, 95% CI 1.28-9.64) and non-Asian (RR 1.71, 95% CI 1.00-2.93) cohorts showed a higher incidence of cardiorenal adverse events with intensive treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Poor functional outcomes and death 90 days after ICH were less common in patients from East Asia than those outside of Asia. Hematoma expansion, a potential predictor for poor clinical outcome, was attenuated by intensive BP lowering only in the Asian cohort. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT01176565. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class II evidence that, for patients from East Asia with ICH, intensive blood pressure lowering significantly reduces the risk of hematoma expansion.

Sex Differences in Blood Pressure-Lowering Therapy and Outcomes Following Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Results From ATACH-2.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Evidence regarding sex differences in clinical outcomes and treatment effect following intracerebral hemorrhage is limited. Using the ATACH-2 trial (Antihypertensive Treatment in Intracerebral Hemorrhage-2) data, we explored whether sex disparities exist in outcomes and response to intensive blood pressure (BP)-lowering therapy. METHODS: Eligible intracerebral hemorrhage subjects were randomly assigned to intensive (target systolic BP, 110-139 mm Hg) or standard (140-179 mm Hg) BP-lowering therapy within 4.5 hours after onset. Relative risk of death or disability corresponding to the modified Rankin Scale score of 4 to 6 was calculated, and interaction between sex and treatment was explored. RESULTS: In total, 380 women and 620 men were included. Women were older, more prescribed antihypertensive drugs before onset, and had more lobar intracerebral hemorrhage than men. Hematoma expansion was observed less in women. After multivariable adjustment, the relative risk of death or disability in women was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.02-1.37, P=0.023). The relative risk of death or disability between intensive versus standard BP-lowering therapy was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.74-1.13) in women versus 1.13 (95% CI, 0.92-1.39) in men (P for interaction=0.11), with inconclusive Gail-Simmon test (P=0.16). CONCLUSIONS: Women had a higher risk of death or disability following intracerebral hemorrhage. The benefit of intensive BP-lowering therapy in women is inconclusive, consistent with the overall results of ATACH-2. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01176565.

Late Neurological Deterioration after Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A post hoc Analysis of the ATACH-2 Trial.

BACKGROUND: Neurological deterioration (ND) has a major influence on the prognosis of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH); however, factors associated with ND occurring after 24 h of ICH onset are unknown. METHODS: We performed exploratory analyses of data from the Antihypertensive Treatment of Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage 2 trial, which compared intensive and standard blood pressure lowering treatment in ICH. NDs were captured on the adverse event case report form. Logistic regression analysis was performed to examine the independent predictors of late ND. RESULTS: Among 1,000 participants with acute ICH, 82 patients (8.2%) developed early ND (≤24 h), and 64 (6.4%) had late ND. Baseline hematoma volume (adjusted OR [aOR] per 1-cm3 increase 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.06, p < 0.0001), hematoma volume increase in 24 h (aOR 2.24, 95% CI 1.23-4.07, p = 0.008), and the presence of intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH; aOR 2.38, 95% CI 1.32-4.29, p = 0.004) were independent predictors of late ND (vs. no late ND). Late ND was a significant risk factor for poor 90-day outcome (OR 3.46, 95% CI 1.82-6.56). No statistically significant difference in the incidence of late ND was noted between the 2 treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: Initial hematoma volume, early hematoma volume expansion, and IVH are independent predictors of late ND after ICH. Intensive reduction in the systolic blood pressure level does not prevent the development of late ND.

National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale: An Alternative Primary Outcome Measure for Trials of Acute Treatment for Ischemic Stroke.

Background and Purpose- The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 3 months is the most commonly used primary outcome measure in stroke treatment trials, but it lacks specificity and requires long-term follow-up interviews, which consume time and resources. An alternative may be the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), early after stroke. Our aim was to evaluate whether the NIHSS assessed within 1 week after treatment could serve as a primary outcome measure for trials of acute treatment for ischemic stroke. Methods- We used data from 2 randomized controlled trials of endovascular treatment for ischemic stroke: the positive MR CLEAN (Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial of Endovascular Treatment for Acute Ischemic Stroke in the Netherlands; N=500) and the neutral IMS (Interventional Management of Stroke) III trial (N=656). We used a causal mediation model, with linear and ordinal logistic regression adjusted for confounders, to evaluate the NIHSS 24 hours and 5 to 7 days after endovascular treatment as primary outcome measures (instead of the mRS at 3 months) in both trials. Patients who had died before the NIHSS was assessed received the maximum score of 42. NIHSS+1 was then log10-transformed. Results- In both trials, there was a significant correlation between the NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days and the mRS. In MR CLEAN, we found a significant effect of endovascular treatment on the mRS and on the NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days. After adjustment for NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days, the effect of endovascular treatment on the mRS decreased from common odds ratio 1.68 (95% CI, 1.22-2.32) to respectively 1.36 (95% CI, 0.97-1.91) and 1.24 (95% CI, 0.87-1.79), indicating that treatment effect on the mRS is in large part mediated by the NIHSS. In the IMS III trial there was no treatment effect on the NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days, corresponding with the absence of a treatment effect on the mRS. Conclusions- The NIHSS within 1 week satisfies the requirements for a surrogate end point and may be used as a primary outcome measure in trials of acute treatment for ischemic stroke, particularly in phase II(b) trials. This could reduce stroke-outcome assessment to its essentials (ie, neurological deficit), and reduce trial duration and costs. Whether and under which conditions it could be used in phase III trials requires a debate in the field with all parties. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: http://www.isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN10888758; https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00359424.

Assessment of the End Point Adjudication Process on the Results of the Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke (POINT) Trial: A Secondary Analysis.

Importance: Debate continues about the value of event adjudication in clinical trials and whether independent centralized assessments improve reliability and validity of study results in masked randomized trials compared with local, investigator-assessed end points. Objective: To assess the results of the adjudicated end point process in the Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke (POINT) trial by comparing end points assessed by local site investigators with centrally adjudicated end points. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is an ad hoc secondary analysis of a randomized, double-blind clinical trial comparing safety and effectiveness of clopidogrel bisulphate plus aspirin vs placebo plus aspirin. Patients received either 600 mg of clopidogrel bisulphate on day 1, then 75 mg per day through day 90 plus 50 to 325 mg of aspirin per day, or the same range of dosages of placebo plus aspirin. Investigators reported all potential end points; independent masked adjudicators were randomly assigned to review using definitions specified in the study protocol. This was a multicenter study; 269 international sites in 10 countries enrolled from May 28, 2010, to December 19, 2017. The study enrolled 4881 patients 18 years or older with transient ischemic attack or minor acute ischemic stroke within 12 hours of symptom onset and followed for 90 days from randomization; last follow-up was completed in March 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: Independent adjudicators external to the study and masked to study treatment assignment adjudicated 467 primary and secondary effectiveness outcomes and major and minor bleeding events, including the primary composite end point, which was the risk of a composite of major ischemic events at 90 days, defined as ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or death from an ischemic vascular event. The primary safety end point was major hemorrhage. All components of the primary and safety outcomes were adjudicated. Results: In this secondary analysis of an international randomized clinical trial, a total of 269 sites worldwide randomized 4881 patients (median age, 65.0 years; interquartile range, 55-74 years); 55.0% were male. The primary results have been published previously. The hazard ratios for clopidogrel plus aspirin vs placebo plus aspirin for the primary composite end point were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.59-0.95) for adjudicator-assessed events and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.60-0.95) for investigator-assessed events. Agreement between adjudicator and investigator assessments was 90.7%. The hazard ratios for clopidogrel plus aspirin vs placebo plus aspirin for the primary safety end point were 2.32 (95% CI, 1.10-4.87) for adjudicator-assessed events and 2.58 (95% CI, 1.19-5.58) for investigator-assessed events, with an agreement rate of 77.5%. Conclusions and Relevance: Independent end point adjudication did not substantially alter estimates of the primary treatment effectiveness in the POINT trial. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00991029.

Blood pressure control and clinical outcomes in acute intracerebral haemorrhage: a preplanned pooled analysis of individual participant data.

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty persists over the effects of blood pressure lowering in acute intracerebral haemorrhage. We aimed to combine individual patient-level data from the two largest randomised controlled trials of blood pressure lowering strategies in patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage to determine the strength of associations between key measures of systolic blood pressure control and safety and efficacy outcomes. METHODS: We did a preplanned pooled analysis of individual patient-level data acquired from the main phase of the Intensive Blood Pressure Reduction in Acute Cerebral Haemorrhage Trial (INTERACT2) and the second Antihypertensive Treatment of Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage (ATACH-II) trial. These trials included adult patients aged 19-99 years with spontaneous (non-traumatic) intracerebral haemorrhage and elevated systolic blood pressure, without a clear indication or contraindication to treatment. Patients were excluded if they had a structural cerebral cause for the intracerebral haemorrhage, had a low score (3-5) on the Glasgow Coma Scale, or required immediate neurosurgery. Our primary analysis assessed the independent associations between three post-randomisation systolic blood pressure summary measures-magnitude of reduction in 1 h, mean achieved systolic blood pressure, and variability in systolic blood pressure between 1 h and 24 h-and the primary outcome of functional status, as defined by the distribution of scores on the modified Rankin Scale at 90 days post-randomisation. We analysed the systolic blood pressure measures as continuous variables using generalised linear mixed models, adjusted for baseline covariables and trial. The primary and safety analyses were done in a modified intention-to-treat population, which only included patients with sufficient data on systolic blood pressure. FINDINGS: 3829 patients (mean age 63·1 years [SD 12·9], 1429 [37%] women, and 2490 [65%] Asian ethnicity) were randomly assigned in INTERACT2 and ATACH-II, with a median neurological impairment defined by scores on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale of 11 (IQR 6-16) and median time from the onset of symptoms of intracerebral haemorrhage to randomisation of 3·6 h (2·7-4·4). We excluded 20 patients with insufficient or no systolic blood pressure data, and we imputed missing systolic blood pressure data in 23 (1%) of the remaining 3809 patients. Overall, the mean magnitude of early systolic blood pressure reduction was 29 mm Hg (SD 22), and subsequent mean systolic blood pressure achieved was 147 mm Hg (15) and variability in systolic blood pressure was 14 mm Hg (8). Achieved systolic blood pressure was continuously associated with functional status (improvement per 10 mm Hg increase adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·90 [95% CI 0·87-0·94], p<0·0001). Symptomatic hypotension occurred in 28 (1%) patients, renal serious adverse events occurred in 26 (1%) patients, and cardiac serious adverse events occurred in 99 (3%) patients. INTERPRETATION: Our pooled analyses indicate that achieving early and stable systolic blood pressure seems to be safe and associated with favourable outcomes in patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage of predominantly mild-to-moderate severity. FUNDING: None.

Time Course for Benefit and Risk of Clopidogrel and Aspirin After Acute Transient Ischemic Attack and Minor Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND: In patients with acute minor ischemic stroke or high-risk transient ischemic attack enrolled in the POINT trial (Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke [POINT] Trial), the combination of clopidogrel and aspirin for 90 days reduced major ischemic events but increased major hemorrhage in comparison to aspirin alone. METHODS: In a secondary analysis of POINT (N=4881), we assessed the time course for benefit and risk from the combination of clopidogrel and aspirin. The primary efficacy outcome was a composite of ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or ischemic vascular death. The primary safety outcome was major hemorrhage. Risks and benefits were estimated for delayed times of treatment initiation using left-truncated models. RESULTS: Through 90 days, the rate of major ischemic events was initially high then decreased markedly, whereas the rate of major hemorrhage remained low but relatively constant throughout. With the use of a model-based approach, the optimal change point for major ischemic events was 21 days (0-21 days hazard ratio 0.65 for clopidogrel-aspirin versus aspirin; 95% CI, 0.50-0.85; P=0.0015, in comparison to 22-90 days hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 0.81-2.35; P=0.24). Models showed benefits of clopidogrel-aspirin for treatment delayed as long as 3 days after symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS: The benefit of clopidogrel-aspirin occurs predominantly within the first 21 days, and outweighs the low, but ongoing risk of major hemorrhage. When considered with the results of the CHANCE trial (Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients With Non-disabling Cerebrovascular Events), a similar trial treating with clopidogrel-aspirin for 21 days and showing no increase in major hemorrhage, these results suggest that limiting clopidogrel-aspirin use to 21 days may maximize benefit and reduce risk after high-risk transient ischemic attack or minor ischemic stroke. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00991029.

Risk for Major Hemorrhages in Patients Receiving Clopidogrel and Aspirin Compared With Aspirin Alone After Transient Ischemic Attack or Minor Ischemic Stroke: A Secondary Analysis of the POINT Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Results show the short-term risk of hemorrhage in treating patients with acute transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor acute ischemic stroke (AIS) with clopidogrel plus aspirin or aspirin alone. Objective: To characterize the frequency and kinds of major hemorrhages in the Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke (POINT) trial. Design, Setting, and Participants: This secondary analysis of the POINT randomized, double-blind clinical trial conducted in 10 countries in North America, Europe, and Australasia included patients with high-risk TIA or minor AIS who were randomized within 12 hours of symptom onset and followed up for 90 days. The total enrollment, which occurred from May 28, 2010, through December 17, 2017, was 4881 and constituted the intention-to-treat group; 4819 (98.7%) were included in the as-treated analysis group. The primary safety analyses were as-treated, classifying patients based on study drug actually received. Intention-to-treat analyses were performed as secondary analyses. Data were analyzed in April 2018. Interventions: Patients were assigned to receive clopidogrel (600 mg loading dose on day 1 followed by 75 mg daily for days 2-90) or placebo; all patients also received open-label aspirin, 50 to 325 mg/d. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary safety outcome was all major hemorrhages. Other safety outcomes included minor hemorrhages. Results: A total of 269 sites worldwide randomized 4881 patients (median age, 65.0 years [interquartile range, 55-74 years]; 2195 women [45.0%]); the primary results have been published previously. In the as-treated analyses, major hemorrhage occurred in 21 patients (0.9%) receiving clopidogrel plus aspirin and 6 (0.2%) in the aspirin alone group (hazard ratio, 3.57; 95% CI, 1.44-8.85; P = .003; number needed to harm, 159). There were 4 fatal hemorrhages (0.1%; 3 in the clopidogrel plus aspirin group and 1 in the aspirin alone group); 3 of the 4 were intracranial. There were 7 intracranial hemorrhages (0.1%); 5 were in the clopidogrel plus aspirin group and 2 in the aspirin plus placebo group. The most common location of major hemorrhages was in the gastrointestinal tract. Conclusions and Relevance: The risk for major hemorrhages in patients receiving either clopidogrel plus aspirin or aspirin alone after TIA or minor AIS was low. Nevertheless, treatment with clopidogrel plus aspirin increased the risk of major hemorrhages over aspirin alone from 0.2% to 0.9%. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00991029.

Deferoxamine mesylate in patients with intracerebral haemorrhage (i-DEF): a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Iron from haemolysed blood is implicated in secondary injury after intracerebral haemorrhage. We aimed to assess the safety of the iron chelator deferoxamine mesylate in patients with intracerebral haemorrhage and to establish whether the drug merits investigation in a phase 3 trial. METHODS: We did a multicentre, futility-design, randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 2 trial at 40 hospitals in Canada and the USA. Adults aged 18-80 years with primary, spontaneous, supratentorial intracerebral haemorrhage were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive deferoxamine mesylate (32 mg/kg per day) or placebo (saline) infusions for 3 consecutive days within 24 h of haemorrhage onset. Randomisation was done via a web-based trial-management system centrally in real time, and treatment allocation was concealed from both participants and investigators. The primary outcome was good clinical outcome, which was defined as a modified Rankin Scale score of 0-2 at day 90. We did a futility analysis: if the 90% upper confidence bound of the absolute risk difference between the two groups in the proportion of participants with a good clinical outcome was less than 12% in favour of deferoxamine mesylate, then to move to a phase 3 efficacy trial would be futile. Primary outcome and safety data were analysed in the modified intention-to-treat population, comprising only participants in whom the study infusions were initiated. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02175225, and is completed. FINDINGS: We recruited 294 participants between Nov 23, 2014, and Nov 10, 2017. The modified intention-to-treat population consisted of 144 patients assigned to the deferoxamine mesylate group and 147 assigned to the placebo group. At day 90, among patients with available data for the primary outcome, 48 (34%) of 140 participants in the deferoxamine mesylate group, and 47 (33%) of 143 patients in the placebo group, had modified Rankin Scale scores of 0-2 (adjusted absolute risk difference 0·6% [90% upper confidence bound 6·8%]). By day 90, 70 serious adverse events were reported in 39 (27%) of 144 patients in the deferoxamine mesylate group, and 78 serious adverse events were reported in 49 (33%) of 147 patients in the placebo group. Ten (7%) participants in the deferoxamine mesylate and 11 (7%) in the placebo group died. None of the deaths were judged to be treatment related. INTERPRETATION: Deferoxamine mesylate was safe. However, the primary result showed that further study of the efficacy of deferoxamine mesylate with anticipation that the drug would significantly improve the chance of good clinical outcome (ie, mRS score of 0-2) at day 90 would be futile. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health and US National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke.

Association of Very Early Serum Levels of S100B, Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein, Ubiquitin C-Terminal Hydrolase-L1, and Spectrin Breakdown Product with Outcome in ProTECT III.

Rapid risk-stratification of patients with acute traumatic brain injury (TBI) would inform management decisions and prognostication. The objective of this serum biomarker study (Biomarkers of Injury and Outcome [BIO]-Progesterone for Traumatic Brain Injury, Experimental Clinical Treatment [ProTECT]) was to test the hypothesis that serum biomarkers of structural brain injury, measured at a single, very early time-point, add value beyond relevant clinical covariates when predicting unfavorable outcome 6 months after moderate-to-severe acute TBI. BIO-ProTECT utilized prospectively collected samples obtained from subjects with moderate-to-severe TBI enrolled in the ProTECT III clinical trial of progesterone. Serum samples were obtained within 4 h after injury. Glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), S100B, αII-spectrin breakdown product of molecular weight 150 (SBDP150), and ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase-L1 (UCH-L1) were measured. The association between log-transformed biomarker levels and poor outcome, defined by a Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOS-E) score of 1-4 at 6 months post-injury, were estimated via logistic regression. Prognostic models and a biomarker risk score were developed using bootstrapping techniques. Of 882 ProTECT III subjects, samples were available for 566. Each biomarker was associated with 6-month GOS-E (p < 0.001). Compared with a model containing baseline patient variables/characteristics, inclusion of S100B and GFAP significantly improved prognostic capacity (p ≤ 0.05 both comparisons); conversely, UCH-L1 and SBDP did not. A final predictive model incorporating baseline patient variables/characteristics and biomarker data (S100B and GFAP) had the best prognostic capability (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI]: CI 0.81-0.89). Very early measurements of brain-specific biomarkers are independently associated with 6-month outcome after moderate-to-severe TBI and enhance outcome prediction.

Treatment effect on ordinal functional outcome using piecewise multistate Markov model with unobservable baseline: an application to the modified Rankin scale.

In clinical trials, longitudinally assessed ordinal outcomes are commonly dichotomized and only the final measure is used for primary analysis, partly for ease of clinical interpretation. Dichotomization of the ordinal scale and failure to utilize the repeated measures can reduce statistical power. Additionally, in certain emergent settings, the same measure cannot be assessed at baseline prior to treatment. For such a data set, a piecewise-constant multistate Markov model that incorporates a latent model for the unobserved baseline measure is proposed. These models can be useful in analyzing disease history data and are advantageous in clinical applications where a disease process naturally moves through increasing stages of severity. Two examples are provided using acute stroke clinical trials data. Conclusions drawn in this article are consistent with those from the primary analysis for treatment effect in both of the motivating examples. Use of these models allows for a more refined examination of treatment effect and describes the movement between health states from baseline to follow-up visits which may provide more clinical insight into the treatment effect.

Clinical Outcomes Depending on Acute Blood Pressure After Cerebral Hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between clinical outcomes and acute systolic blood pressure (SBP) levels achieved after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). METHODS: Eligible patients who were randomized to the ATACH-2 (Antihypertensive Treatment in Intracerebral Hemorrhage 2) trial (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01176565) were divided into 5 groups by 10-mmHg strata of average hourly minimum SBP (<120, 120-130, 130-140, 140-150, and ≥ 150 mmHg) during 2 to 24 hours after randomization. Outcomes included: 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 4 to 6; hematoma expansion, defined as an increase ≥6 ml from baseline to 24-hour computed tomography; and cardiorenal adverse events within 7 days. RESULTS: Of the 1,000 subjects in ATACH-2, 995 with available SBP data were included in the analyses. The proportion of mRS 4 to 6 was 37.5, 36.0, 42.8, 38.6, and 38.0%, respectively. For the "140 to 150" group relative to the "120 to 130," the odds ratio (OR), adjusting for sex, race, age, onset-to-randomization time, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, hematoma volume, and hematoma location, was 1.62 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-2.58). Hematoma expansion was identified in 16.9, 13.7, 21.4, 18.5, and 26.4%, respectively. The 140 to 150 (OR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.05-3.09) and "≥150" (1.98; 1.12-3.51) showed a higher frequency of expansion than the 120 to 130 group. Cardiorenal events occurred in 13.6, 16.6, 11.5, 8.1, and 8.2%, respectively. The 140 to 150 (0.43; 0.19-0.88) and ≥ 150 (0.44; 0.18-0.96) showed a lower frequency of the events than the 120 to 130. INTERPRETATION: Beneficial effects of lowering and maintaining SBP at 120 to 130 mmHg during the first 24 hours on clinical outcomes by suppressing hematoma expansion was somewhat offset by cardiorenal complications. ANN NEUROL 2019;85:105-113.

The AtRial Cardiopathy and Antithrombotic Drugs In prevention After cryptogenic stroke randomized trial: Rationale and methods.

RATIONALE: Recent data suggest that a thrombogenic atrial substrate can cause stroke in the absence of atrial fibrillation. Such an atrial cardiopathy may explain some proportion of cryptogenic strokes. AIMS: The aim of the ARCADIA trial is to test the hypothesis that apixaban is superior to aspirin for the prevention of recurrent stroke in subjects with cryptogenic ischemic stroke and atrial cardiopathy. SAMPLE SIZE ESTIMATE: 1100 participants. METHODS AND DESIGN: Biomarker-driven, randomized, double-blind, active-control, phase 3 clinical trial conducted at 120 U.S. centers participating in NIH StrokeNet. POPULATION STUDIED: Patients ≥ 45 years of age with embolic stroke of undetermined source and evidence of atrial cardiopathy, defined as ≥ 1 of the following markers: P-wave terminal force >5000 µV × ms in ECG lead V1, serum NT-proBNP > 250 pg/mL, and left atrial diameter index ≥ 3 cm/m2 on echocardiogram. Exclusion criteria include any atrial fibrillation, a definite indication or contraindication to antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy, or a clinically significant bleeding diathesis. Intervention: Apixaban 5 mg twice daily versus aspirin 81 mg once daily. Analysis: Survival analysis and the log-rank test will be used to compare treatment groups according to the intention-to-treat principle, including participants who require open-label anticoagulation for newly detected atrial fibrillation. STUDY OUTCOMES: The primary efficacy outcome is recurrent stroke of any type. The primary safety outcomes are symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and major hemorrhage other than intracranial hemorrhage. DISCUSSION: ARCADIA is the first trial to test whether anticoagulant therapy reduces stroke recurrence in patients with atrial cardiopathy but no known atrial fibrillation.

Statistical analysis plan for pooled individual patient data from two landmark randomized trials (INTERACT2 and ATACH-II) of intensive blood pressure lowering treatment in acute intracerebral hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: There is persistent uncertainty over the benefits of early intensive systolic blood pressure lowering in acute intracerebral hemorrhage. In particular, over the timing, target, and intensity of systolic blood pressure control for optimum balance of potential benefits (i.e. functional recovery) and risks (e.g. cerebral ischemia). AIMS: To determine associations of early systolic blood pressure lowering parameters and outcomes in patients with a hypertensive response in acute intracerebral hemorrhage. Secondary aims are to identify the modifying effects of patient characteristics and an optimal systolic blood pressure lowering profile. METHODS: Individual participant data pooled analyses of two large, multicenter, randomized controlled trials specifically undertaken to assess the effects of early intensive systolic blood pressure reduction on clinical outcomes in acute intracerebral hemorrhage: the Intensive Blood Pressure in Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage Trial (INTERACT2) and the Antihypertensive Treatment of Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage (ATACH-II) trial. Combined data will include baseline characteristics; systolic blood pressure in the first 24 h; process of care measures; and key efficacy and safety outcomes. OUTCOMES: The primary outcome is functional recovery, defined by an ordinal distribution of scores on the modified Rankin scale at 90 days post-randomization. Secondary outcomes include various standard binary cut-points for disability-free survival on the modified Rankin scale, and health-related quality of life at 90 days. Safety outcomes include symptomatic hypotension requiring corrective therapy and early neurologic deterioration within 24 h, and deaths, any serious adverse event, and cardiac and renal serious adverse events, within 90 days. DISCUSSION: A pre-determined protocol was developed to facilitate successful collaboration and reduce analysis bias arising from prior knowledge of the findings. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifiers for INTERACT2 (NCT00716079) and ATACH-II (NCT01176565).

Blood Pressure-Attained Analysis of ATACH 2 Trial.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We compared the rates of death or disability, defined by modified Rankin Scale score of 4 to 6, at 3 months in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage according to post-treatment systolic blood pressure (SBP)-attained status. METHODS: We divided 1000 subjects with SBP ≥180 mm Hg who were randomized within 4.5 hours of symptom onset as follows: SBP <140 mm Hg achieved or not achieved within 2 hours; subjects in whom SBP <140 mm Hg was achieved within 2 hours were further divided: SBP <140 mm Hg for 21 to 22 hours (reduced and maintained) or SBP was ≥140 mm Hg for at least 2 hours during the period between 2 and 24 hours (reduced but not maintained). RESULTS: Compared with subjects without reduction of SBP <140 mm Hg within 2 hours, subjects with reduction and maintenance of SBP <140 mm Hg within 2 hours had a similar rate of death or disability (relative risk of 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.29). The rates of neurological deterioration within 24 hours were significantly higher in reduced and maintained group (10.4%; relative risk, 1.98; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-3.62) and in reduced but not maintained group (11.5%; relative risk, 2.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-3.75) compared with reference group. The rates of cardiac-related adverse events within 7 days were higher among subjects with reduction and maintenance of SBP <140 mmHg compared to subjects without reduction (11.2% versus 6.4%). CONCLUSIONS: No decline in death or disability but higher rates of neurological deterioration and cardiac-related adverse events were observed among intracerebral hemorrhage subjects with reduction with and without maintenance of intensive SBP goals. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01176565.

Clopidogrel and Aspirin in Acute Ischemic Stroke and High-Risk TIA.

BACKGROUND: Combination antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel and aspirin may reduce the rate of recurrent stroke during the first 3 months after a minor ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). A trial of combination antiplatelet therapy in a Chinese population has shown a reduction in the risk of recurrent stroke. We tested this combination in an international population. METHODS: In a randomized trial, we assigned patients with minor ischemic stroke or high-risk TIA to receive either clopidogrel at a loading dose of 600 mg on day 1, followed by 75 mg per day, plus aspirin (at a dose of 50 to 325 mg per day) or the same range of doses of aspirin alone. The dose of aspirin in each group was selected by the site investigator. The primary efficacy outcome in a time-to-event analysis was the risk of a composite of major ischemic events, which was defined as ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or death from an ischemic vascular event, at 90 days. RESULTS: A total of 4881 patients were enrolled at 269 international sites. The trial was halted after 84% of the anticipated number of patients had been enrolled because the data and safety monitoring board had determined that the combination of clopidogrel and aspirin was associated with both a lower risk of major ischemic events and a higher risk of major hemorrhage than aspirin alone at 90 days. Major ischemic events occurred in 121 of 2432 patients (5.0%) receiving clopidogrel plus aspirin and in 160 of 2449 patients (6.5%) receiving aspirin plus placebo (hazard ratio, 0.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.95; P=0.02), with most events occurring during the first week after the initial event. Major hemorrhage occurred in 23 patients (0.9%) receiving clopidogrel plus aspirin and in 10 patients (0.4%) receiving aspirin plus placebo (hazard ratio, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.10 to 4.87; P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with minor ischemic stroke or high-risk TIA, those who received a combination of clopidogrel and aspirin had a lower risk of major ischemic events but a higher risk of major hemorrhage at 90 days than those who received aspirin alone. (Funded by the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke; POINT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00991029 .).

Thrombectomy for Stroke at 6 to 16 Hours with Selection by Perfusion Imaging.

BACKGROUND: Thrombectomy is currently recommended for eligible patients with stroke who are treated within 6 hours after the onset of symptoms. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, randomized, open-label trial, with blinded outcome assessment, of thrombectomy in patients 6 to 16 hours after they were last known to be well and who had remaining ischemic brain tissue that was not yet infarcted. Patients with proximal middle-cerebral-artery or internal-carotid-artery occlusion, an initial infarct size of less than 70 ml, and a ratio of the volume of ischemic tissue on perfusion imaging to infarct volume of 1.8 or more were randomly assigned to endovascular therapy (thrombectomy) plus standard medical therapy (endovascular-therapy group) or standard medical therapy alone (medical-therapy group). The primary outcome was the ordinal score on the modified Rankin scale (range, 0 to 6, with higher scores indicating greater disability) at day 90. RESULTS: The trial was conducted at 38 U.S. centers and terminated early for efficacy after 182 patients had undergone randomization (92 to the endovascular-therapy group and 90 to the medical-therapy group). Endovascular therapy plus medical therapy, as compared with medical therapy alone, was associated with a favorable shift in the distribution of functional outcomes on the modified Rankin scale at 90 days (odds ratio, 2.77; P<0.001) and a higher percentage of patients who were functionally independent, defined as a score on the modified Rankin scale of 0 to 2 (45% vs. 17%, P<0.001). The 90-day mortality rate was 14% in the endovascular-therapy group and 26% in the medical-therapy group (P=0.05), and there was no significant between-group difference in the frequency of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (7% and 4%, respectively; P=0.75) or of serious adverse events (43% and 53%, respectively; P=0.18). CONCLUSIONS: Endovascular thrombectomy for ischemic stroke 6 to 16 hours after a patient was last known to be well plus standard medical therapy resulted in better functional outcomes than standard medical therapy alone among patients with proximal middle-cerebral-artery or internal-carotid-artery occlusion and a region of tissue that was ischemic but not yet infarcted. (Funded by the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke; DEFUSE 3 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02586415 .).