The subjective wellbeing of people living with Multiple Sclerosis in Australia: insights from the Personal Wellbeing Index.

OBJECTIVES: Subjective wellbeing has been defined as an individual's personal appraisal of their quality of life. Subjective wellbeing is associated with positive health behaviours and improved coping abilities. This study aimed to investigate the subjective wellbeing of people living with multiple sclerosis (MS), using the novel Personal Wellbeing Index, and make comparisons with the general population. METHODS: Cross-sectional data was obtained from the Australian Multiple Sclerosis Longitudinal Study and the How Is Your Life Australian general population study in August-October 2020. Subjective wellbeing was measured as life satisfaction using the Personal Wellbeing Index. This instrument measures life satisfaction globally and in seven life domains, allowing the importance of domain-specific life satisfaction to be explored. Descriptive and multivariable regression analyses were conducted. RESULTS: One thousand six hundred eighty-three MS and 1,021 general population participants entered the study (mean age 52.4 and 58.6; female 79.9% and 52.4%, respectively). For people living with MS the most important life domains were standard of living and achieving in life. The domain of personal health was more influential for people living with MS (p < 0.01) than the general population. The life domains most susceptible to MS-related disability were personal health, achieving in life, and community connectedness (p < 0.01 for these domains). CONCLUSION: Personal health and achieving in life are key domains through which the subjective wellbeing of people living with MS is modified. This study recommends the development of interventions to support healthy perceptions of illness and continued employment as paramount in improving the subjective wellbeing of people living with MS.

The Impact of Unrelated Future Medical Costs on Economic Evaluation Outcomes for Different Models of Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: This study leveraged data from 11 independent international diabetes models to evaluate the impact of unrelated future medical costs on the outcomes of health economic evaluations in diabetes mellitus. METHODS: Eleven models simulated the progression of diabetes and occurrence of its complications in hypothetical cohorts of individuals with type 1 (T1D) or type 2 (T2D) diabetes over the remaining lifetime of the patients to evaluate the cost effectiveness of three hypothetical glucose improvement interventions versus a hypothetical control intervention. All models used the same set of costs associated with diabetes complications and interventions, using a United Kingdom healthcare system perspective. Standard utility/disutility values associated with diabetes-related complications were used. Unrelated future medical costs were assumed equal for all interventions and control arms. The statistical significance of changes on the total lifetime costs, incremental costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) before and after adding the unrelated future medical costs were analysed using t-test and summarized in incremental cost-effectiveness diagrams by type of diabetes. RESULTS: The inclusion of unrelated costs increased mean total lifetime costs substantially. However, there were no significant differences between the mean incremental costs and ICERs before and after adding unrelated future medical costs. Unrelated future medical cost inclusion did not alter the original conclusions of the diabetes modelling evaluations. CONCLUSIONS: For diabetes, with many costly noncommunicable diseases already explicitly modelled as complications, and with many interventions having predominantly an effect on the improvement of quality of life, unrelated future medical costs have a small impact on the outcomes of health economic evaluations.

Estimation of Transition Probabilities from a Large Cohort (> 6000) of Australians Living with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) for Changing Disability Severity Classifications, MS Phenotype, and Disease-Modifying Therapy Classifications.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune/neurodegenerative disease associated with progressing disability affecting mostly women. We aim to estimate transition probabilities describing MS-related disability progression from no disability to severe disability. Transition probabilities are a vital input for health economics models. In MS, this is particularly relevant for pharmaceutical agency reimbursement decisions for disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). METHODS: Data were obtained from Australian participants of the MSBase registry. We used a four-state continuous-time Markov model to describe how people with MS transition between disability milestones defined by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (scale 0-10): no disability (EDSS of 0.0), mild (EDSS of 1.0-3.5), moderate (EDSS of 4.0-6.0), and severe (EDSS of 6.5-9.5). Model covariates included sex, DMT usage, MS-phenotype, and disease duration, and analysis of covariate groups were also conducted. All data were recorded by the treating neurologist. RESULTS: A total of N = 6369 participants (mean age 42.5 years, 75.00% female) with 38,837 person-years of follow-up and 54,570 clinical reviews were identified for the study. Annual transition probabilities included: remaining in the no, mild, moderate, and severe states (54.24%, 82.02%, 69.86%, 77.83% respectively) and transitioning from no to mild (42.31%), mild to moderate (11.38%), and moderate to severe (9.41%). Secondary-progressive MS was associated with a 150.9% increase in the hazard of disability progression versus relapsing-remitting MS. CONCLUSIONS: People with MS have an approximately 45% probability of transitioning from the no disability state after one year, with people with progressive MS transitioning from this health state at a much higher rate. These transition probabilities will be applied in a publicly available health economics simulation model for Australia and similar populations, intended to support reimbursement of a plethora of existing and upcoming interventions including medications to reduce progression of MS.

Healthcare costs attributable to diabetes in pregnancy: A cost of illness study in Tasmania, Australia.

AIMS: To estimate the direct costs during the prenatal, delivery and postpartum periods in mothers with diabetes in pregnancy, compared to those without. METHODS: This study used a population-based dataset from 2004 to 2017, including 57,090 people with diabetes and 114,179 people without diabetes in Tasmania, Australia. Based on diagnostic codes, delivery episodes with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) were identified and matched with delivery episodes without diabetes in pregnancy. A group of delivery episodes with pre-existing diabetes was identified for comparison. Hospitalisation, emergency department and pathology costs of these groups were calculated and adjusted to 2020-2021 Australian dollars. RESULTS: There were 2774 delivery episodes with GDM, 2774 delivery episodes without diabetes and 237 delivery episodes with pre-existing diabetes identified. Across the 24-month period, the pre-existing diabetes group required the highest costs, totalling $23,536/person. This was followed by the GDM ($13,210/person), and the no diabetes group ($11,167/person). The incremental costs of GDM over the no diabetes group were $890 (95% CI 635; 1160) in the year preceding delivery; $812 (616; 1031) within the delivery period and $341 (110; 582) in the year following delivery (p < 0.05). Within the year preceding delivery, the incremental costs in the prenatal period were $803 (579; 1058) (p < 0.05). Within the year following delivery, the incremental costs in the postpartum period were $137 (55; 238) (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our results emphasised the importance of proper management of diabetes in pregnancy in the prenatal and postpartum periods and highlighted the significance of screening and preventative strategies for diabetes in pregnancy.

Is public transport a promising strategy for increasing physical activity? Evidence from a study of objectively measured public transport use and physical activity.

BACKGROUND: Greater public transport use has been linked to higher physical activity levels. However, neither the amount of physical activity associated with each daily public transport trip performed, nor the potential total physical activity gain associated with an increase in trips/day, has been determined. Using objective measures, we aimed to quantify the association between public transport use, physical activity and sedentary time. METHODS: A longitudinal study of Australian adults living in Hobart, Tasmania, who were infrequent bus users (≥ 18 years; used bus ≤ 2 times/week). The number of bus trips performed each day was determined from objective smartcard data provided by the public transportation (bus) provider across a 36-week study timeframe. Accelerometer measured steps/day (primary outcome), moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (min/day), and sedentary time (min/day) were assessed across four separate one-week periods. RESULTS: Among 73 participants across 1483 day-level observations, on days that public transport was used, participants achieved significantly more steps (ß = 2147.48; 95%CI = 1465.94, 2829.03), moderate to vigorous physical activity (ß = 22.79; 95% CI = 14.33, 31.26), and sedentary time (ß = 37.00; 95% CI = 19.80, 54.21) compared to days where no public transport trips were made. The largest increase in steps per day associated with a one-trip increase was observed when the number of trips performed each day increased from zero to one (ß = 1761.63; 95%CI = 821.38, 2701.87). The increase in the number of steps per day was smaller and non-significant when the number of trips performed increased from one to two (ß = 596.93; 95%CI=-585.16, 1779.01), and two to three or more (ß = 632.39; 95%CI=-1331.45, 2596.24) trips per day. Significant increases in sedentary time were observed when the number of trips performed increased from zero to one (ß = 39.38; 95%CI = 14.38, 64.39) and one to two (ß = 48.76; 95%CI = 25.39, 72.12); but not when bus trips increased from two to three or more (ß=-27.81; 95%CI=-76.00, 20.37). CONCLUSIONS: Greater public transport use was associated with higher physical activity and sedentary behaviour. Bus use may yield cumulative increases in steps that amount to 15-30% of the daily recommended physical activity target. A policy and public health focus on intersectoral action to promote public transport may yield meaningful increases in physical activity and subsequent health benefits.

Significantly increasing multiple sclerosis prevalence in Australia from 2010 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence is increasing globally. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether increased prevalence is continuing within Australia using our validated prescription-based ascertainment method. METHODS: We used methods employed in our 2010 and 2017 prevalence estimates. Disease-modifying therapy (DMT) prescriptions were extracted from Australia's Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme data for January-December 2021. DMT penetrance was calculated using data from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study. We divided the total number of monthly prescriptions by 12 or 2 (except alemtuzumab), adjusted for DMT penetrance and Australian population estimates. Prevalences in Australian states/territories were age-standardised. 2021 prevalence estimates were compared with 2010 and 2017 prevalence estimates using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Number of people with MS in Australia in 2021 was 33,335; an increase of 7728 from 2017 (30.2%) and 12,092 from 2010 (56.6%) and increasing at a faster rate than population change (+10.1%, +14.1%). Age-standardised prevalence was 136.1/100,000 (increased from 103.7/100,000 in 2017). The previously demonstrated positive latitudinal gradient in 2010 and 2017 persisted in 2021, with Tasmania (southernmost state) having the highest prevalence (age-standardised: 203.5/100,000) while northernmost states had the lowest. CONCLUSIONS: In line with global trends, MS prevalence is escalating in Australia, particularly in higher-latitude states. MS prevention is crucial to halt this disturbing trend.

Exploring the workplace factors and their influence on the employment outcomes for people with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: High unemployment rate of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) is associated with substantial economic costs. Whilst the impact of MS symptoms and other disease-related factors on employment outcomes of PwMS has been assessed, limited evidence exists on the impacts of workplace factors. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the most common individual and group workplace factors associated with unemployment or a perceived risk of unemployment in PwMS, and to identify patient subgroups that are more susceptible to changes in employment status due to such factors. METHODS: Data from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study (AMSLS) on employment status and workplace factors were used. Fifteen workplace factors were classified under four groups: organisational, commuting, moving around at work, and equipment usage factors. Participants answered 'Yes' to each factor if it related to their unemployment and/or perceived risk of becoming unemployed and a group factor was considered "Yes" if at least one individual factor within it was answered as "Yes". The proportions of "Yes" responses were calculated for both individual and group factors. Total number of individual factors was calculated and descriptive analyses and ordered logistic regression were used to summarize the total number of factors affecting each participant, and their association with participants' occupations, sex, disability severity and disease duration. RESULTS: Common workplace factors influencing employment were organisational (39.8 % perceived risk, 44.0 % lost employment), commuting (28.9 % perceived risk) and equipment usage difficulty (30.9 % lost employment). Common individual factors included inflexible working conditions, lack of suitable work, commuting difficulties, architectural barriers, and requirement to stand for long periods to use equipment. Professionals, blue-collar workers, and those with moderate/severe disability were more likely to report a higher number of workplace factors risking their employment. CONCLUSIONS: Workplace factors undermine PwMS employment, with variations among subgroups based on occupation and disability severity. Understanding these barriers is crucial for supporting PwMS in the workforce.

Examining the Impact of Structural Uncertainty Across 10 Type 2 Diabetes Models: Results From the 2022 Mount Hood Challenge.

OBJECTIVES: The Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network aimed to examine the impact of model structural uncertainty on the estimated cost-effectiveness of interventions for type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Ten independent modeling groups completed a blinded simulation exercise to estimate the cost-effectiveness of 3 interventions in 2 type 2 diabetes populations. Modeling groups were provided with a common baseline population, cost and utility values associated with different model health states, and instructions regarding time horizon and discounting. We collated the results to identify variation in predictions of net monetary benefit (NMB) and the drivers of those differences. RESULTS: Overall, modeling groups agreed which interventions had a positive NMB (ie, were cost-effective), Although estimates of NMB varied substantially-by up to £23 696 for 1 intervention. Variation was mainly driven through differences in risk equations for complications of diabetes and their implementation between models. The number of modeled health states was also a significant predictor of NMB. CONCLUSIONS: This exercise demonstrates that structural uncertainty between different health economic models affects cost-effectiveness estimates. Although it is reassuring that a decision maker would likely reach similar conclusions on which interventions were cost-effective using most models, the range in numerical estimates generated across different models would nevertheless be important for price-setting negotiations with intervention developers. Minimizing the impact of structural uncertainty on healthcare decision making therefore remains an important priority. Model registries, which record and compare the impact of structural assumptions, offer one potential avenue to improve confidence in the robustness of health economic modeling.

Unravelling the health and economic burden of interstitial lung diseases in adults in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Interstitial lung diseases (ILD) are a heterogenous group of over 200 disorders affecting the pulmonary interstitium. Although there have been advances in knowledge on ILDs in Australia, the characterisation of the health and economic burden of disease remained largely undetermined until recently. OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this review is to provide a synopsis of health and economic burden of ILDs in Australia, based on recently completed research. DISCUSSION: Recent research has demonstrated that idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is the most frequent ILD in Australia. Incidence and prevalence of IPF have demonstrated an increasing trend over the past decades. Mortality has also increased over the past decades, but has shown a slight decreasing trend recently, since the introduction of antifibrotic medication. Health-related quality of life is poor in patients with IPF, and care is estimated to cost approximately AU$299 million per year in Australia. Early diagnosis and referral to tertiary care is crucial for favourable outcomes, and general practitioners are considerably important to this as the first interface to identify patients at risk and detect early symptoms of ILDs.

The quality of life impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns for people living with multiple sclerosis (MS): evidence from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study.

PURPOSE: People living with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) in metropolitan Victoria, Australia, experienced a 112-day, COVID-19-related lockdown in mid-2020. Contemporaneously, Australian PwMS elsewhere experienced minimal restrictions, resulting in a natural experiment. This study investigated the relationships between lockdowns, COVID-19-related adversity, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). It also generated health state utilities (HSU) representative of changes in HRQoL. METHODS: Data were extracted from Australian MS Longitudinal Study surveys, which included the Assessment of Quality of Life-Eight Dimensions (AQoL-8D) instrument and a COVID-19 questionnaire. This COVID-19 questionnaire required participants to rank their COVID-19-related adversity across seven health dimensions. Ordered probits were used to identify variables contributing to adversity. Linear and logit regressions were applied to determine the impact of adversity on HRQoL, defined using AQoL-8D HSUs. Qualitative data were examined thematically. RESULTS: N = 1666 PwMS (average age 58.5; 79.8% female; consistent with the clinical presentation of MS) entered the study, with n = 367 (22.0%) exposed to the 112-day lockdown. Lockdown exposure and disability severity were strongly associated with higher adversity rankings (p < 0.01). Higher adversity rankings were associated with lower HSUs. Participants reporting major adversity, across measured health dimensions, had a mean HSU 0.161 (p < 0.01) lower than participants reporting no adversity and were more likely (OR: 2.716, p < 0.01) to report a clinically significant HSU reduction. Themes in qualitative data supported quantitative findings. CONCLUSIONS: We found that COVID-19-related adversity reduced the HRQoL of PwMS. Our HSU estimates can be used in health economic models to evaluate lockdown cost-effectiveness for people with complex and chronic (mainly neurological) diseases.

Creating an interactive map visualising the geographic variations of the burden of diabetes to inform policymaking: An example from a cohort study in Tasmania, Australia.

OBJECTIVES: To visualise the geographic variations of diabetes burden and identify areas where targeted interventions are needed. METHODS: Using diagnostic criteria supported by hospital codes, 51,324 people with diabetes were identified from a population-based dataset during 2004-2017 in Tasmania, Australia. An interactive map visualising geographic distribution of diabetes prevalence, mortality rates, and healthcare costs in people with diabetes was generated. The cluster and outlier analysis was performed based on statistical area level 2 (SA2) to identify areas with high (hot spot) and low (cold spot) diabetes burden. RESULTS: There were geographic variations in diabetes burden across Tasmania, with highest age-adjusted prevalence (6.1%), excess cost ($2627), and annual costs per person ($5982) in the West and Northwest. Among 98 SA2 areas, 16 hot spots and 25 cold spots for annual costs, and 10 hot spots and 10 cold spots for diabetes prevalence were identified (p<0.05). 15/16 (94%) and 6/10 (60%) hot spots identified were in the West and Northwest. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a method to graphically display important diabetes outcomes for different geographical areas. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: The method presented in our study could be applied to any other diseases, regions, and countries where appropriate data are available to identify areas where interventions are needed to improve diabetes outcomes.

Assessing health state utilities for people with myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome in Australia using the EQ-5D-5L, AQoL-8D and EQ-5D-5L-psychosocial instruments.

PURPOSE: Myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) is a chronic condition with a constellation of symptoms presenting as severe and profound fatigue of ≥ 6 months not relieved by rest. ME/CFS affects health-related quality of life (HRQoL), which can be measured using multi-attribute health state utility (HSU) instruments. The aims of this study were to quantify HSUs for people living with ME/CFS, and to identify an instrument that is preferentially sensitive for ME/CFS. METHODS: Cross-sectional national survey of people with ME/CFS using the AQoL-8D and EQ-5D-5L. Additional questions from the AQoL-8D were used as 'bolt-ons' to the EQ-5D-5L (i.e., EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial). Disability and fatigue severity were assessed using the De Paul Symptom Questionnaire-Short Form (DSQ-SF). HSUs were generated using Australian tariffs. Mean HSUs were stratified for sociodemographic and clinical factors. Bland-Altman plots were used to compare the three HSU instruments. RESULTS: For the 198 participants, mean HSUs (95% confidence intervals) were EQ-5D-5L: 0.46 (0.42-0.50); AQoL-8D: 0.43 (0.41-0.45); EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial: 0.44 (0.42-0.46). HSUs were substantially lower than population norms: EQ-5D-5L: 0.89; AQoL-8D: 0.77. As disability and fatigue severity increased, HSUs decreased in all three instruments. Bland-Altman plots revealed interchangeability between the AQoL-8D and EQ-5D-5LPsychosocial. Floor and ceiling effects of 13.5% and 2.5% respectively were observed for the EQ-5D-5L instrument only. CONCLUSIONS: ME/CFS has a profound impact on HRQoL. The AQoL-8D and EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial can be used interchangeably: the latter represents a reduced participant burden.

Exploring the cost-effectiveness of EBV vaccination to prevent multiple sclerosis in an Australian setting.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence suggests the potential of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) vaccination in preventing multiple sclerosis (MS). We aimed to explore the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical EBV vaccination to prevent MS in an Australian setting. METHODS: A five-state Markov model was developed to simulate the incidence and subsequent progression of MS in a general Australian population. The model inputs were derived from published Australian sources. Hypothetical vaccination costs, efficacy and strategies were derived from literature. Total lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated for two hypothetical prevention strategies versus no prevention from the societal and health system payer perspectives. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 5% annually. One-way, two-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: From societal perspective, EBV vaccination targeted at aged 0 and aged 12 both dominated no prevention (ie, cost saving and increasing QALYs). However, vaccinating at age 12 was more cost-effective (total lifetime costs reduced by $A452/person, QALYs gained=0.007, ICER=-$A64 571/QALY gained) than vaccinating at age 0 (total lifetime costs reduced by $A40/person, QALYs gained=0.003, ICER=-$A13 333/QALY gained). The probabilities of being cost-effective under $A50 000/QALY gained threshold for vaccinating at ages 0 and 12 were 66% and 90%, respectively. From health system payer perspective, the EBV vaccination was cost-effective at age 12 only. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of EBV vaccination to prevent MS under a wide range of plausible scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: MS prevention using future EBV vaccinations, particularly targeted at adolescence population, is highly likely to be cost-effective.

The disease-modifying therapy utilisation and cost trend for multiple sclerosis in Australia between 2013 and 2022.

BACKGROUND: The MS disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) prescribing landscape in Australia have changed over time. OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the utilisation and cost trends of MS-related DMTs in Australia over 10 years and investigated differences between States/Territories. METHODS: The prescription and costs of 16 DMTs were extracted from the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme for 2013-2022. Descriptive approaches analysed the total number of people prescribed DMTs and total DMT costs per 10,000 population, proportions of prescriptions/costs by DMT groups and the number of people prescribed each individual DMT and costs of each DMT over the 10-year period. All estimates were for Australia and each State/Territory individually. RESULTS: The number of people prescribed DMT and costs per 10,000 population had substantial growth between 2013 and 2022: 125%/164% for Australia, and 94%-251%/129%-373% for individual States/Territories. Higher efficacy group accounted for 54% of total people prescribed DMTs in 2013 and 75% in 2022. Fingolimod was the most popular DMT until 2020, then was dominated by ocrelizumab. The trends of individual DMT prescriptions and costs differed between states particularly in Western Australia (WA), Tasmania and Northern Territory (NT). CONCLUSION: DMT prescriptions and costs continuously increased over the last decade, particularly for higher efficacy DMTs, and their trends differed between States/Territories.

The economic burden of myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome in Australia.

Objective This study aimed to estimate costs of myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) to patients, government and Australian society. Methods Australian ME/CFS patients and their carers were recruited using convenience sampling. Patients completed an online retrospective cost diary, providing ME/CFS-related direct medical, non-medical and indirect costs. Informal care costs were collected directly from carers. Data from the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme and Medicare Benefits Schedule were linked to participant survey data. Annual per patient and total societal costs were estimated, broken down by category and presented in 2021 AUD. Factors associated with higher costs were investigated using generalised linear models. Results One hundred and seventy five patients (mean age 49 years s.d. 14, 79.4% female) completed the cost diary. Estimated total annual societal costs of ME/CFS in Australia ranged between $1.38 and $10.09 billion, with average annual total costs of $63 400/patient. Three-quarters of these costs were due to indirect costs ($46 731). Disability severity was the key factor associated with higher costs, particularly for indirect costs (being 2.27-fold higher for severe disability than no/mild disability). Conclusions ME/CFS poses a significant economic burden in Australia, owing mainly to high indirect and informal care costs.

Using qualitative free-text data to investigate the lived experience of the COVID-19 pandemic for a large cohort of Australians with different multiple sclerosis related disability levels.

BACKGROUND: No large-scale qualitative studies have investigated the lived experience of people living with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) during the pandemic according to their disability level. We used qualitative research methods to investigate the lived experience of a large cohort of Australians living with differing multiple sclerosis (MS)-related disability levels during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also provided useful contextualisation to existing quantitative work. METHODS: This was a retrospective survey-based mixed-methods cohort study. A quality-of-life study was conducted within the Australian MS Longitudinal Study during the pandemic. Disability severity was calculated using the Patient Determined Disease Steps. Qualitative free-text data regarding COVID-19 impacts was collected/analysed for word frequency and also thematically (inductively/deductively using sophisticated grounded theory) using NVivo software. We also triangulated word frequency with emerging themes. RESULTS: N=509 PwMS participated providing n=22 530 words of COVID-19-specific data. Disability severity could be calculated for n=501 PwMS. The word 'working' was important for PwMS with no disability, and 'support' and 'isolation' for higher disability levels. For PwMS with milder disability, thematic analysis established that multitasking increased stress levels, particularly if working from home (WFH) and home-schooling children. If not multitasking, WFH was beneficial for managing fatigue. PwMS with severe disability raised increased social isolation as a concern including prepandemic isolation. CONCLUSIONS: We found negative impacts of multitasking and social isolation for PwMS during the pandemic. WFH was identified as beneficial for some. We recommend targeted resourcing decisions for PwMS in future pandemics including child-care relief and interventions to reduce social isolation and suggest that these could be incorporated into some form of advanced care planning. As the nature of work changes postpandemic, we also recommend a detailed investigation of WFH for PwMS including providing tailored employment assistance.

trips4health: a single-blinded randomised controlled trial incentivising adult public transport use for physical activity gain.

BACKGROUND: Public transport users tend to accumulate more physical activity than non-users; however, whether physical activity is increased by financially incentivising public transport use is unknown. The trips4health study aimed to determine the impact of an incentive-based public transport intervention on physical activity. METHODS: A single-blinded randomised control trial of a 16-week incentive-based intervention involved Australian adults who were infrequent bus users (≥ 18 years; used bus ≤ 2 times/week) split equally into intervention and control groups. The intervention group were sent weekly motivational text messages and awarded smartcard bus credit when targets were met. The intervention group and control group received physical activity guidelines. Accelerometer-measured steps/day (primary outcome), self-reported transport-related physical activity (walking and cycling for transport) and total physical activity (min/week and MET-min/week) outcomes were assessed at baseline and follow-up. RESULTS: Due to the COVID pandemic, the trial was abandoned prior to target sample size achievement and completion of all assessments (N = 110). Steps/day declined in both groups, but by less in the intervention group [-557.9 steps (-7.9%) vs.-1018.3 steps/week (-13.8%)]. In the intervention group, transport-related physical activity increased [80.0 min/week (133.3%); 264.0 MET-min/week (133.3%)] while total physical activity levels saw little change [35.0 min/week (5.5%); 25.5 MET-min/week (1.0%)]. Control group transport-related physical activity decreased [-20.0 min/week (-27.6%); -41.3 MET-min/week (-17.3%)], but total physical activity increased [260.0 min/week (54.5%); 734.3 MET-min/week (37.4%)]. CONCLUSION: This study found evidence that financial incentive-based intervention to increase public transport use is effective in increasing transport-related physical activity These results warrant future examination of physical activity incentives programs in a fully powered study with longer-term follow-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered with the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry August 14th, 2019: ACTRN12619001136190; https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=377914&isReview=true.

Calibration of the IQVIA Core Diabetes Model to the stroke outcomes from the SUSTAIN 6 cardiovascular outcomes trial of once-weekly semaglutide.

AIMS: In the SUSTAIN 6 cardiovascular outcomes trial, once-weekly semaglutide was associated with a statistically significant reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events compared with placebo. To date, no studies have assessed how accurately existing diabetes models predict the outcomes observed in SUSTAIN 6. The aims of this analysis were to investigate the performance of the IQVIA Core Diabetes Model when used to predict the SUSTAIN 6 trial outcomes, to calibrate the model such that projected outcomes reflected observed outcomes, and to examine the impact of calibration on the cost-effectiveness of once-weekly semaglutide from a UK healthcare payer perspective. METHODS: The IQVIA Core Diabetes Model was calibrated to ensure that the projected non-fatal stroke event rates reflected the non-fatal stroke event rates observed in SUSTAIN 6 over a two-year time horizon. Cost-effectiveness analyses of once-weekly semaglutide versus placebo plus standard of care were conducted over a lifetime horizon using the uncalibrated and calibrated models to assess the impact on cost-effectiveness outcomes. RESULTS: To replicate the non-fatal stroke event rate in SUSTAIN 6, calibration of the model through the application of relative risks for stroke of 1.07 and 1.65 with once-weekly semaglutide and placebo, respectively, was required. In the long-term cost-effectiveness analysis, the uncalibrated model projected an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for once-weekly semaglutide versus placebo plus standard of care of GBP 22,262 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, which fell to GBP 17,594 per QALY gained when the calibrated model was used. CONCLUSIONS: The requirement for calibration to replicate the outcomes observed in SUSTAIN 6 suggests that the reductions in risk of cardiovascular complications observed with once-weekly semaglutide cannot be solely explained by differences in conventional risk factors. Accurate estimation of the risk of diabetes-related complications using methods such as calibration is important to ensure accurate cost-effectiveness analyses are conducted.

Estimating the disutility of relapse in relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis using the EQ-5D-5L, AQoL-8D, EQ-5D-5L-psychosocial, and SF-6D: implications for health economic evaluation models.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Relapses are an important clinical feature of multiple sclerosis (MS) that result in temporary negative changes in quality of life (QoL), measured by health state utilities (HSUs) (disutilities). We aimed to quantify disutilities of relapse in relapsing remitting MS (RRMS), secondary progressive MS (SPMS), and relapse onset MS [ROMS (including both RRMS and SPMS)] and examine these values by disability severity using four multi-attribute utility instruments (MAUIs). METHODS: We estimated (crude and adjusted and stratified by disability severity) disutilities (representing the mean difference in HSUs of 'relapse' and 'no relapse' groups as well as 'unsure' and 'no relapse' groups) in RRMS (n = 1056), SPMS (n = 239), and ROMS (n = 1295) cohorts from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study's 2020 QoL survey, using the EQ-5D-5L, AQoL-8D, EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial, and SF-6D MAUIs. RESULTS: Adjusted mean overall disutilities of relapse in RMSS/SPMS/ROMS were - 0.101/- 0.149/- 0.129 (EQ-5D-5L), - 0.092/- 0.167/- 0.113 (AQoL-8D), - 0.080/- 0.139/- 0.097 (EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial), and - 0.116/- 0.161/- 0.130 (SF-6D), approximately 1.5 times higher in SPMS than in RRMS, in all MAUI. All estimates were statistically significant and/or clinically meaningful. Adjusted disutilities of RRMS and ROMS demonstrated a U-shaped relationship between relapse disutilities and disability severity. Relapse disutilities were higher in 'severe' disability than 'mild' and 'moderate' in the SPMS cohort. CONCLUSION: MS-related relapses are associated with substantial utility decrements. As the type and severity of MS influence disutility of relapse, the use of disability severity and MS-type-specific disutility inputs is recommended in future health economic evaluations of MS. Our study supports relapse management and prevention as major mechanisms to improve QoL in people with MS.

Cardiovascular and health cost impacts of cuff blood pressure underestimation and overestimation of invasive aortic systolic blood pressure.

OBJECTIVE: Hypertension management is directed by cuff blood pressure (BP), but this may be inaccurate, potentially influencing cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and health costs. This study aimed to determine the impact on CVD events and related costs of the differences between cuff and invasive SBP. METHODS: Microsimulations based on Markov modelling over one year were used to determine the differences in the number of CVD events (myocardial infarction or coronary death, stroke, atrial fibrillation or heart failure) predicted by Framingham risk and total CVD health costs based on cuff SBP compared with invasive (aortic) SBP. Modelling was based on international consortium data from 1678 participants undergoing cardiac catheterization and 30 separate studies. Cuff underestimation and overestimation were defined as cuff SBP less than invasive SBP and cuff SBP greater than invasive SBP, respectively. RESULTS: The proportion of people with cuff SBP underestimation versus overestimation progressively increased as SBP increased. This reached a maximum ratio of 16 : 1 in people with hypertension grades II and III. Both the number of CVD events missed (predominantly stroke, coronary death and myocardial infarction) and associated health costs increased stepwise across levels of SBP control, as cuff SBP underestimation increased. The maximum number of CVD events potentially missed (11.8/1000 patients) and highest costs ($241 300 USD/1000 patients) were seen in people with hypertension grades II and III and with at least 15 mmHg of cuff SBP underestimation. CONCLUSION: Cuff SBP underestimation can result in potentially preventable CVD events being missed and major increases in health costs. These issues could be remedied with improved cuff SBP accuracy.