How Do We Assess Controversies Using Evidence-Based Radiology?

At its best, the practice of medicine involves careful integration of experience and evidence. Generating evidence to address controversies in radiology - and translating such evidence to practice - requires appropriate selection of methods, and an understanding of the strengths, shortcomings, and biases inherent to different research designs and analyses. Equipped with such knowledge, the radiologic community can ensure that both research and clinical practice in our discipline excels, and that those questions that will be the most critical to answer will be formulated for successful investigation in the years to come.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Screening for Pancreatic Cancer Among High-Risk Populations.

PURPOSE: We evaluated the potential cost-effectiveness of combined magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) among populations at high risk for the disease. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model of the natural history of PDAC to estimate the lifetime health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of PDAC screening among populations with specific genetic risk factors for PDAC, including BRCA1 and BRCA2, PALB2, ATM, Lynch syndrome, TP53, CDKN2A, and STK11. For each high-risk population, we simulated 29 screening strategies, defined by starting age and frequency. Screening included MRI with follow-up EUS in a subset of patients. Costs of tests were based on Medicare reimbursement for MRI, EUS, fine-needle aspiration biopsy, and pancreatectomy. Cancer-related cost by stage of disease and phase of treatment was based on the literature. For each high-risk population, we performed an incremental cost-effectiveness analysis, assuming a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $100,000 US dollars (USD) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: For men with relative risk (RR) 12.33 (CDKN2A) and RR 28 (STK11), annual screening was cost-effective, starting at age 55 and 40 years, respectively. For women, screening was only cost-effective for those with RR 28 (STK11), with annual screening starting at age 45 years. CONCLUSION: Combined MRI/EUS screening may be a cost-effective approach for the highest-risk populations (among mutations considered, those with RR >12). However, for those with moderate risk (RR, 5-12), screening would only be cost-effective at higher WTP thresholds (eg, $200K USD/QALY) or with once-only screening.

Ultrasound Surveillance of Small, Incidentally Detected Gallbladder Polyps: Projected Benefits by Sex, Age, and Comorbidity Level.

OBJECTIVE: Incidentally detected gallbladder polyps are commonly encountered when performing upper abdominal ultrasound. Our purpose was to estimate the life expectancy (LE) benefit of ultrasound-based gallbladder surveillance in patients with small (6-7 to <10 mm), incidentally detected gallbladder polyps, accounting for patient sex, age, and comorbidity level. METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic Markov model to evaluate hypothetical cohorts of women and men with small gallbladder polyps, with varying age (66-80 years) and comorbidity level (none, mild, moderate, severe). Drawing from current evidence, in the base case, we assumed no increased risk of gallbladder cancer in patients with small gallbladder polyps. To estimate maximal possible LE gains from surveillance, we assumed perfect cancer control consequent to 5 years of surveillance. We varied key assumptions including cancer risk and test performance characteristics in sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Projected LE gains from surveillance were <3 days across most cohorts and scenarios evaluated. For 66- and 80-year-olds with no comorbidities, LE gains were 1.46 and 1.45 days, respectively, for women, and 0.67 and 0.75 days for men. With 10 years of surveillance, LE gains increased to 2.94 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities (men: 1.35 days). If we assumed a 10% increase in gallbladder cancer risk among individuals with polyps, LE gains increased slightly to 1.60 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities (men: 0.74 days). Results were sensitive to test performance and surgical mortality. DISCUSSION: Even under unrealistic, optimistic assumptions of cancer control, ultrasound surveillance of incidentally detected small gallbladder polyps provided limited benefit.

Introduction of a daily peer learning process with added value for faculty and trainees.

OBJECTIVE: To implement a new daily peer learning (PL) conference which incorporates faculty and trainees within the abdominal imaging division of a large academic medical center, and to determine participants' level of satisfaction and preference over the pre-existing peer review (PR) model. METHODS: We replaced our pre-existing PR-based tool with a daily hour-long case-based PL teaching conference over a 3-month pilot period. Faculty and trainees were surveyed about their experience at the end of the pilot period. RESULTS: A total of 711 cases were logged during the pilot period (median 9 cases per day). We received 30 survey responses from a total of 48 eligible participants. Survey responses from both faculty and trainees on the new PL conference were overwhelmingly favorable, including unanimous support for permanently replacing the existing PR tool with the new PL conference. CONCLUSION: Our successful pilot of a daily PL conference replacing an existing PR tool adds to the growing body of evidence of radiologists strongly supporting PL based processes over PR. Our paradigm of actively involving trainees within the process can serve as a model for other institutions.

Genetic testing to guide screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: Results of a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: First-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have elevated PDAC risk, partially due to germline genetic variants. We evaluated the potential effectiveness of genetic testing to target MRI-based screening among FDRs. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model of PDAC, calibrated to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data, to estimate the potential life expectancy (LE) gain of screening for each of the following groups of FDRs: individuals who test positive for each of eight variants associated with elevated PDAC risk (e.g., BRCA2, CDKN2A); individuals who test negative; and individuals who do not test. Screening was assumed to take place if LE gains were achievable. We simulated multiple screening approaches, defined by starting age and frequency. Sensitivity analysis evaluated changes in results given varying model assumptions. RESULTS: For women, 92% of mutation carriers had projected LE gains from screening for PDAC, if screening strategies (start age, frequency) were optimized. Among carriers, LE gains ranged from 0.1 days (ATM+ women screened once at age 70) to 510 days (STK11+ women screened annually from age 40). For men, LE gains were projected for all mutation carriers, ranging from 0.2 days (BRCA1+ men screened once at age 70) to 620 days (STK11+ men screened annually from age 40). For men and women who did not undergo genetic testing, or for whom testing showed no variant, screening yielded small LE benefit (0-2.1 days). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic testing of FDRs can inform targeted PDAC screening by identifying which FDRs may benefit.

Liquid Biopsy, Diagnostic Imaging, and Future Synergies.

Imaging plays an integral role in the initial diagnosis and longitudinal care of patients with cancer. Liquid biopsies, which most commonly involve genetic analysis of circulating free DNA, have emerged as important complementary tools in cancer care with the potential to interface with imaging at each step of the cancer care continuum. Here, the authors use non-small-cell lung cancer as a paradigm to elucidate factors driving the need for liquid biopsy in the spectrum of lung cancer care, demonstrate ways in which liquid biopsy has already changed standard clinical practice, and discuss anticipated synergies of liquid biopsy and imaging in screening and early detection and in monitoring of disease.

Managing Incidental Findings on Thoracic CT: Lung Findings. A White Paper of the ACR Incidental Findings Committee.

The ACR Incidental Findings Committee presents recommendations for managing incidentally detected lung findings on thoracic CT. The Chest Subcommittee is composed of thoracic radiologists who endorsed and developed the provided guidance. These recommendations represent a combination of current published evidence and expert opinion and were finalized by informal iterative consensus. The recommendations address commonly encountered incidental findings in the lungs and are not intended to be a comprehensive review of all pulmonary incidental findings. The goal is to improve the quality of care by providing guidance on management of incidentally detected thoracic findings.

Rethinking the Approach to Artificial Intelligence for Medical Image Analysis: The Case for Precision Diagnosis.

To date, widely generalizable artificial intelligence (AI) programs for medical image analysis have not been demonstrated, including for mammography. Rather than pursuing a strategy of collecting ever-larger databases in the attempt to build generalizable programs, we suggest three possible avenues for exploring a precision medicine or precision imaging approach. First, it is now technologically feasible to collect hundreds of thousands of multi-institutional cases along with other patient data, allowing stratification of patients into subpopulations that have similar characteristics in the manner discussed by the National Research Council in its white paper on precision medicine. A family of AI programs could be developed across different examination types that are matched to specific patient subpopulations. Such stratification can help address bias, including racial or ethnic bias, by allowing unbiased data aggregation for creation of subpopulations. Second, for common examinations, larger institutions may be able to collect enough of their own data to train AI programs that reflect disease prevalence and variety in their respective unique patient subpopulations. Third, high- and low-probability subpopulations can be identified by application of AI programs, thereby allowing their triage off the radiology work list. This would reduce radiologists' workloads, providing more time for interpretation of the remaining examinations. For high-volume procedures, investigators should come together to define reference standards, collect data, and compare the merits of pursuing generalizability versus a precision medicine subpopulation-based strategy.

Surveillance in Older Women With Incidental Ovarian Cysts: Maximal Projected Benefits by Age and Comorbidity Level.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to estimate effects on life expectancy (LE) of imaging-based ovarian surveillance after detection of incidental postmenopausal ovarian cysts, under different assumptions of patient age, comorbidity level, and cancer risk and detection. METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to estimate LE benefits. Hypothetical cohorts of postmenopausal women with simple ovarian cysts were evaluated, with varied age (66-80 years) and comorbidity level (none, mild, moderate, severe). For each cohort, imaging "follow-up" (2 years) and "no-follow-up" strategies were compared. Consistent with current evidence, increased cancer risk in patients with cysts was not assumed; however, incident ovarian cancers could be detected during follow-up. To estimate theoretical maximal LE gains from follow-up, perfect ovarian cancer detection and treatment during follow-up were assumed. This and other key assumptions were varied in sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Projected LE gains from follow-up were limited. For 66-, 70-, 75-, and 80-year-old women with no comorbidities, LE gains were 5.1, 5.1, 4.5, and 3.7 days; with severe comorbidities, they were 3.5, 3.2, 2.7, and 2.1 days. With sensitivity of 50% for cancer detection, they were 3.7 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities and 1.3 days for 80-year-old women with severe comorbidities. When cancer risk for women with cysts was assumed to be elevated (1.1 times average risk), LE gains increased only modestly (5.6 and 2.3 days for analogous cohorts). CONCLUSIONS: Even in the circumstance of perfect ovarian cancer detection and treatment, surveillance of postmenopausal women (≥66 years of age) with simple cysts affords limited benefits, particularly in women with advanced age and comorbidities.

ACR Appropriateness Criteria® Pretreatment Evaluation and Follow-Up of Endometrial Cancer.

To date, there is little consensus on the role of pelvic imaging in assessing local disease extent during initial staging in patients with endometrial carcinoma, with practices differing widely across centers. However, when pretreatment assessment of local tumor extent is indicated, MRI is the preferred imaging modality. Preoperative imaging of endometrial carcinoma can define the extent of disease and indicate the need for subspecialist referral in the presence of deep myometrial invasion, cervical extension, or suspected lymphadenopathy. If distant metastatic disease is clinically suspected, preoperative assessment with cross-sectional imaging or PET/CT may be performed. However, most patients with low-grade disease are at low risk of lymph node and distant metastases. Thus, this group may not require a routine pretreatment evaluation for distant metastases. Recurrence rates in patients with endometrial carcinoma are infrequent. Therefore, radiologic evaluation is typically used only to investigate suspicion of recurrent disease due to symptoms or physical examination and not for routine surveillance after treatment. The American College of Radiology Appropriateness Criteria are evidence-based guidelines for specific clinical conditions that are reviewed annually by a multidisciplinary expert panel. The guideline development and revision include an extensive analysis of current medical literature from peer reviewed journals and the application of well-established methodologies (RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation or GRADE) to rate the appropriateness of imaging and treatment procedures for specific clinical scenarios. In those instances where evidence is lacking or equivocal, expert opinion may supplement the available evidence to recommend imaging or treatment.

Diabetes, Weight Change, and Pancreatic Cancer Risk.

Importance: Pancreatic cancer is the third-leading cause of cancer death in the United States; however, few high-risk groups have been identified to facilitate early diagnosis strategies. Objective: To evaluate the association of diabetes duration and recent weight change with subsequent risk of pancreatic cancer in the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study obtained data from female participants in the Nurses' Health Study and male participants in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study, with repeated exposure assessments over 30 years. Incident cases of pancreatic cancer were identified from self-report or during follow-up of participant deaths. Deaths were ascertained through reports from the next of kin, the US Postal Service, or the National Death Index. Data collection was conducted from October 1, 2018, to December 31, 2018. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2019, to June 30, 2019. Exposures: Duration of physician-diagnosed diabetes and recent weight change. Main Outcome and Measures: Hazard ratios (HRs) for subsequent development of pancreatic cancer. Results: Of the 112 818 women (with a mean [SD] age of 59.4 [11.7] years) and 46 207 men (with a mean [SD] age of 64.7 [10.8] years) included in the analysis, 1116 incident cases of pancreatic cancers were identified. Compared with participants with no diabetes, those with recent-onset diabetes had an age-adjusted HR for pancreatic cancer of 2.97 (95% CI, 2.31-3.82) and those with long-standing diabetes had an age-adjusted HR of 2.16 (95% CI, 1.78-2.60). Compared with those with no weight loss, participants who reported a 1- to 4-lb weight loss had an age-adjusted HR for pancreatic cancer of 1.25 (95% CI, 1.03-1.52), those with a 5- to 8-lb weight loss had an age-adjusted HR of 1.33 (95% CI, 1.06-1.66), and those with more than an 8-lb weight loss had an age-adjusted HR of 1.92 (95% CI, 1.58-2.32). Participants with recent-onset diabetes accompanied by weight loss of 1 to 8 lb (91 incident cases per 100 000 person-years [95% CI, 55-151]; HR, 3.61 [95% CI, 2.14-6.10]) or more than 8 lb (164 incident cases per 100 000 person-years [95% CI, 114-238]; HR, 6.75 [95% CI, 4.55-10.00]) had a substantially increased risk for pancreatic cancer compared with those with neither exposure (16 incident cases per 100 000 person-years; 95% CI, 14-17). Incidence rates were even higher among participants with recent-onset diabetes and weight loss with a body mass index of less than 25 before weight loss (400 incident cases per 100 000 person-years) or whose weight loss was not intentional judging from increased physical activity or healthier dietary choices (334 incident cases per 100 000 person-years). Conclusions and Relevance: This study demonstrates that recent-onset diabetes accompanied by weight loss is associated with a substantially increased risk for developing pancreatic cancer. Older age, previous healthy weight, and no intentional weight loss further elevate this risk.

Abdominal Imaging Findings in COVID-19: Preliminary Observations.

Background Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, a target of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), demonstrates its highest surface expression in the lung, small bowel, and vasculature, suggesting abdominal viscera may be susceptible to injury. Purpose To report abdominal imaging findings in patients with coronavirus disease 2019. Materials and Methods In this retrospective cross-sectional study, patients consecutively admitted to a single quaternary care center from March 27 to April 10, 2020, who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were included. Abdominal imaging studies performed in these patients were reviewed, and salient findings were recorded. Medical records were reviewed for clinical data. Univariable analysis and logistic regression were performed. Results A total of 412 patients (average age, 57 years; range, 18 to >90 years; 241 men, 171 women) were evaluated. A total of 224 abdominal imaging studies were performed (radiography, n = 137; US, n = 44; CT, n = 42; MRI, n = 1) in 134 patients (33%). Abdominal imaging was associated with age (odds ratio [OR], 1.03 per year of increase; P = .001) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission (OR, 17.3; P < .001). Bowel-wall abnormalities were seen on 31% of CT images (13 of 42) and were associated with ICU admission (OR, 15.5; P = .01). Bowel findings included pneumatosis or portal venous gas, seen on 20% of CT images obtained in patients in the ICU (four of 20). Surgical correlation (n = 4) revealed unusual yellow discoloration of the bowel (n = 3) and bowel infarction (n = 2). Pathologic findings revealed ischemic enteritis with patchy necrosis and fibrin thrombi in arterioles (n = 2). Right upper quadrant US examinations were mostly performed because of liver laboratory findings (87%, 32 of 37), and 54% (20 of 37) revealed a dilated sludge-filled gallbladder, suggestive of bile stasis. Patients with a cholecystostomy tube placed (n = 4) had negative bacterial cultures. Conclusion Bowel abnormalities and gallbladder bile stasis were common findings on abdominal images of patients with coronavirus disease 2019. Patients who underwent laparotomy often had ischemia, possibly due to small-vessel thrombosis. © RSNA, 2020.

Genetic and Circulating Biomarker Data Improve Risk Prediction for Pancreatic Cancer in the General Population.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer is the third leading cause of cancer death in the United States, and 80% of patients present with advanced, incurable disease. Risk markers for pancreatic cancer have been characterized, but combined models are not used clinically to identify individuals at high risk for the disease. METHODS: Within a nested case-control study of 500 pancreatic cancer cases diagnosed after blood collection and 1,091 matched controls enrolled in four U.S. prospective cohorts, we characterized absolute risk models that included clinical factors (e.g., body mass index, history of diabetes), germline genetic polymorphisms, and circulating biomarkers. RESULTS: Model discrimination showed an area under ROC curve of 0.62 via cross-validation. Our final integrated model identified 3.7% of men and 2.6% of women who had at least 3 times greater than average risk in the ensuing 10 years. Individuals within the top risk percentile had a 4% risk of developing pancreatic cancer by age 80 years and 2% 10-year risk at age 70 years. CONCLUSIONS: Risk models that include established clinical, genetic, and circulating factors improved disease discrimination over models using clinical factors alone. IMPACT: Absolute risk models for pancreatic cancer may help identify individuals in the general population appropriate for disease interception.