Tropical estuarine ecosystem change under the interacting influences of future climate and ecosystem restoration.

One of the largest restoration programs in the world, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) aims to restore freshwater inputs to Everglades wetlands and the Florida Bay estuary. This study predicted how the Florida Bay ecosystem may respond to hydrological restoration from CERP within the context of contemporary projected impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and increased future temperatures. A spatial-temporal dynamic model (Ecospace) was used to develop a spatiotemporal food web model incorporating environmental drivers of salinity, salinity variation, temperature, depth, distance to mangrove, and seagrass abundance and was used to predict responses of biomass, fisheries catch, and ecosystem resilience between current and future conditions. Changes in biomass between the current and future scenario suggest a suite of winners and losers, with many estuarine species increasing in both total biomass and spatial distribution. Notable biomass increases were predicted for important forage species, including bay anchovy (+32%), hardhead halfbeak (+19%), and pinfish (+31%), while decreases were predicted in mullet (-88%), clupeids (-55%), hardhead silverside (-15%), mojarras (-117%), and Portunid crabs (-16%). Increases in sportfish biomass included the angler-preferred spotted seatrout (+9%), red drum (+10%), and gray snapper (+8%), while decreases included sheepshead (-40%), Atlantic tarpon (-73%), and common snook (-507%). Ecosystem resilience and fisheries catch of angler-preferred species were predicted to improve in the future scenario in total, although a localized decline in resilience predicted for the Central Region may warrant further attention. Our results suggest the Florida Bay ecosystem is likely to achieve restoration benefits in spite of, and in some cases facilitated by, the projected future impacts from climate change due to the system's shallow depth and detrital dominance. The incorporation of climate impacts into long-term restoration planning using ecosystem modeling in similar systems facing unknown futures of SLR, warming seas, and shifting species distributions is recommended.

High-resolution Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Harmful Algae in the Indian River Lagoon (Florida)-A Case Study of Aureoumbra lagunensis, Pyrodinium bahamense, and Pseudo-nitzschia.

The Indian River Lagoon (IRL), located on the east coast of Florida, is a complex estuarine ecosystem that is negatively affected by recurring harmful algal blooms (HABs) from distinct taxonomic/functional groups. Enhanced monitoring was established to facilitate rapid quantification of three recurrent bloom taxa, Aureoumbra lagunensis, Pyrodinium bahamense, and Pseudo-nitzschia spp., and included corroborating techniques to improve the identification of small-celled nanoplankton (<10 µm in diameter). Identification and enumeration of these target taxa were conducted during 2015-2020 using a combination of light microscopy and species-specific approaches, specifically immunofluorescence flow cytometry as well as a newly developed qPCR assay for A. lagunensis presented here for the first time. An annual bloom index (ABI) was established for each taxon based on occurrence and abundance data. Blooms of A. lagunensis (>2×108 cells L-1) were observed in all six years sampled and across multiple seasons. In contrast, abundance of P. bahamense, largely driven by the annual temperature cycle that moderates life cycle transitions and growth, displayed a strong seasonal pattern with blooms (105-107 cells L-1) generally developing in early summer and subsiding in autumn. However, P. bahamense bloom development was delayed and abundance was significantly lower in years and locations with sustained A. lagunensis blooms. Pseudo-nitzschia spp. were broadly distributed with sporadic bloom concentrations (reaching 107 cells L-1), but with minimal concentrations of the toxin domoic acid detected (<0.02 µg L-1). In summer 2020, multiple monitoring tools characterized a novel nano-cyanobacterium bloom (reaching 109 cells L-1) that coincided with a decline in A. lagunensis and persisted into autumn. Statistical and time-series analyses of this spatiotemporally intensive dataset highlight prominent patterns in variability for some taxa, but also identifies challenges of characterizing mechanisms underlying more episodic yet persistent events. Nevertheless, the intersect of temperature and salinity as environmental proxies proved to be informative in delineating niche partitioning, not only in the case of taxa with long-standing data sets but also for seemingly unprecedented blooms of novel nanoplanktonic taxa.

Stable isotopes and mercury in a model estuarine fish: multibasin comparisons with water quality, community structure, and available prey base.

Stable-isotope ratios (δ(13)C and δ(15)N) and mercury in a model predator, and associated prey community assessments were used to make inferences regarding food web relationships and how these relationships are influenced by habitat variability and anthropogenic factors. Although interconnected, the three major basins of the Indian River Lagoon system on the Atlantic coast of Florida comprise noticeably different available habitat types with spatially distinct faunal communities and available prey for spotted seatrout, Cynoscion nebulosus, a model predatory fish species. Water quality, degree of urbanization, human population density, and levels of nitrogen enrichment clearly differ between these representative estuarine basins. The differences can influence feeding ecology and therefore result in different mercury concentrations and different stable-isotope signatures of spotted seatrout between basins. Mercury concentrations in spotted seatrout were greatest in Mosquito Lagoon (ML) and least in the Indian River Lagoon proper (IRL), although concentrations were low for all basins. Spotted seatrout from IRL were carbon-depleted and nitrogen-enriched compared with those from the other basins; this suggests either that the fish's primary source of carbon in IRL is an algae- or phytoplankton-based food web or that the pathway through the food web is shorter there. The δ(15)N values of IRL spotted seatrout were greater than those in the Banana River Lagoon or ML, suggesting slightly different trophic positioning of fish in these basins. The greater δ(15)N values in IRL spotted seatrout may also reflect the greater human population density and resultant anthropogenic inputs (e.g., observed higher total nitrogen levels) in IRL compared with the other more pristine basins examined. Understanding species' responses to broad-scale habitat heterogeneity in estuaries and knowing basin-specific differences in stable isotopes, mercury, prey communities, and comprehensive food web relationships will be useful in the future for long-term monitoring of impacts of anthropogenic disturbances and of recovery from restoration efforts.