Effects of geographic and economic heterogeneity on the burden of rotavirus diarrhea and the impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination in Nigeria.

Child mortality from rotavirus gastroenteritis remains high in Nigeria, representing 14% of all rotavirus deaths worldwide. Here, we examine the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of national rotavirus vaccine introduction in geographic and economic subpopulations of Nigeria. We projected the health and economic outcomes of rotavirus vaccination in children over the first five years of life using a spreadsheet-based model. We modeled child populations using national survey data on rotavirus mortality risk factors and vaccination coverage to predict burden and impact across regional and wealth quintile subpopulations within Nigeria. Our base case considered introduction of a general rotavirus vaccine, modeled to encompass characteristics of existing vaccines, versus no vaccine. Base case costs were estimated from the government perspective, assuming Gavi subsidies, over the first five years. We also present estimates from the cost of vaccination from the perspective of Gavi. We explored uncertainty in model parameters through probabilistic uncertainty, one-way sensitivity, and scenario analyses. According to our estimates, rotavirus enteritis was responsible for 47,898 [95% Uncertainty Limits: 35,361; 63,703] child deaths per year, with approximately 80% of the national burden concentrated in the three northern regions of Nigeria. Rotavirus vaccination was estimated to prevent 6,454 [3,960; 9,721] deaths, 13% [9%; 18%] of the national annual RV burden. National ICERs for rotavirus vaccination from the Nigerian government and Gavi perspectives were US$47 [$18; $105] and $62 [$29; $130] per DALY averted, respectively. General rotavirus vaccination was projected to reduce rotavirus mortality by only 6% [4%; 9%] in the North West region compared to 35% [24%; 47%] in the South East region. Base case ICERs ranged from US$25 [10; 56] per DALY averted in North West to US$64 [18; 157] per DALY averted in South South. Gavi perspective ICERs ranged from US$33 [$15; $68] in North West to US$88 [35; 191] per DALY averted in South South. According to one-way sensitivity analyses, ICERs were most sensitive to vaccine efficacy, followed by estimated administrative costs and rotavirus mortality. Disparities in mortality reduction were largely driven by inequality in vaccination coverage across regions and between socioeconomic subpopulations. Due to high, persistent, and inequitable burden of rotavirus in Nigeria, routine vaccination with any of these rotavirus vaccines would be an high impact and cost-effective strategy in reducing child mortality.

Effects of geographic and economic heterogeneity on the burden of rotavirus diarrhea and the impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination in Pakistan.

Globally, rotavirus is a leading cause of childhood diarrhea and related mortality. Although rotavirus vaccination has been introduced in many countries worldwide, there are numerous low- to middle-income countries that have not yet introduced. Pakistan is one of the countries with the highest number of rotavirus deaths in children under five years. Although rotavirus infection is almost universal among children, mortality is often a result of poor nutrition and lack of access to health care and other aspects of poverty. We assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of introducing childhood rotavirus vaccination in Pakistan. We use household data from the 2012-2013 Demographic Health survey in Pakistan to estimate heterogeneity in rotavirus mortality risk, vaccination benefits, and cost-effectiveness across geographic and economic groups. We estimate two-dose rotavirus vaccination coverage that would be distributed through a routine vaccination program. In addition, we estimate rotavirus mortality (burden), and other measures of vaccine cost-effectiveness and impact by subpopulations of children aggregated by region and economic status. Results indicate that the highest estimated regional rotavirus burden is in Sindh (3.3 rotavirus deaths/1000 births) and Balochistan (3.1 rotavirus deaths/1000 births), which also have the lowest estimated vaccination coverage, particularly for children living in the poorest households. In Pakistan, introduction could prevent 3061 deaths per year with current routine immunization patterns at an estimated $279/DALY averted. Increases in coverage to match the region with highest coverage (Islamabad) could prevent an additional 1648 deaths per year. Vaccination of children in the highest risk regions could result in a fourfold mortality reduction as compared to low risk children, and children in the poorest households have a three to four times greater mortality reduction benefit than the richest. Based on the analysis presented here, the benefits and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination can be maximized by reaching economically and geographically vulnerable children.

Effects of geographic and economic heterogeneity on rotavirus diarrhea burden and vaccination impact and cost-effectiveness in the Lao People's Democratic Republic.

Rotavirus enteritis is responsible for nearly 200,000 child deaths worldwide in 2015. Globally, many low- and middle-income countries have introduced rotavirus vaccine, resulting in documented reductions in hospitalizations and child mortality. We examined the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of introducing rotavirus vaccination in Lao People's Democratic Republic using an Excel-based spreadsheet model. We estimated mortality risk factors, patterns of care seeking, and vaccination access to predict outcomes for regional, provincial, and socioeconomic subpopulations for one birth cohort through their first five years of life and life course in Disability-Adjusted Life Years estimates. Socioeconomic status was defined by categorizing households into regional wealth quintiles based on a national asset index. We modeled a two-dose ROTARIX vaccine under current Gavi pricing and efficacy estimates from Bangladesh and Vietnam. DPT1 and DPT2 coverages were used to estimate rotavirus vaccination coverage. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of uncertainty on model parameters on predicted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), including scenarios of increases in vaccination coverage. Rotavirus vaccination would prevent 143 child deaths/year, or 28% of annual rotavirus burden. The estimated national level ICER for rotavirus vaccination was $140/DALY, with regional socioeconomic subpopulation estimates ranging from $72/DALY for the poorest in the Central region to $353/DALY for the richest in the North region, indicating high cost-effectiveness. Within regions, ICERs are most favorable for children in the poorer and poorest quintiles. However, the full benefits of rotavirus vaccination will only be realized by reducing disparities in vaccination coverage, access to treatment, and environmental health. Improving vaccination coverage to equitable levels alone would prevent 87 additional child deaths per year.

Health gains and financial risk protection: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment and prevention of diarrhoea in Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVES: Policymakers face many decisions when considering public financing for health, including the kind of health interventions to include in a publically financed package. The consequences of these choices will influence health outcomes as well as the financial risk protection provided to different segments of the population. The purpose of this study is to illustrate the size and distribution of benefits due to treatment and prevention of diarrhoea (ie, rotavirus vaccination). METHODS: We use an economic model to examine the impacts of universal public finance (UPF) of diarrhoeal treatment alone, as opposed to diarrhoeal treatment along with rotavirus vaccination in Ethiopia using extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA). ECEA allows us to measure the health gains and financial risk protection provided by these interventions for each wealth quintile. Our model compares a baseline situation with diarrhoeal treatment seeking of 32% (overall) and no rotavirus vaccination, to a situation where UPF increases treatment seeking by 20 percentage points for each quintile and rotavirus vaccination reaches DTP (diphteria, pertussis, tetanus) 2 levels for each quintile (overall rate of 52%). We calculate deaths averted, private expenditures averted and costs incurred by the government under the baseline situation and with UPF. RESULTS: We find that diarrhoeal treatment paired with rotavirus vaccination is more cost effective than diarrhoeal treatment alone for the metrics we examine in this paper (deaths and private expenditures averted). Per US$1 million invested, diarrhoeal treatment saves 44 lives and averts US$115,000 in private expenditures. For the same investment, diarrhoeal treatment and rotavirus vaccination save 61 lives and avert US$150,000 in private expenditures. The health benefits of these interventions tend to benefit the poor, while the financial benefits favour the better-off. CONCLUSIONS: Policymakers should consider multiple benefit streams as well as their scale and incidence when considering public finance of health interventions.