Structural change in feedlot cattle death loss rates.

Introduction: Industry reports and anecdotal evidence indicate that the death loss rate in cattle feedlots has increased over time. Such increases in death loss rates impact feedlot cost and thus profitability. Objectives: The primary objective of this study is to examine whether feedlot death loss rates in cattle have changed over time, to analyze the nature of any identified structural change, and to identify possible catalysts for that change. Methods: Data from the Kansas Feedlot Performance and Feed Cost Summary from 1992 through 2017 is used to model feedlot death loss rate as a function of feeder cattle placement weight, days on feed, time, and seasonality in the form of monthly dummy variables. Commonly used tests of structural change, including the CUSUM, CUSUMSQ, and Bai and Perron methods, are implemented to examine the existence and nature of any structural changes in the proposed model. All tests indicate the presence of structural breaks in the model, including both systematic change and abrupt change. Following a synthesis of structural test results, the final model is modified to include a structural shift parameter for the period from December 2000 to September 2010. Results: Models indicate that days on feed has a significant positive influence on death loss rate. Trend variables indicate that death loss rates have increased systematically over the period studied. However, the structural shift parameter in the modified model is positive and significant for December 2000 to September 2010, indicating that death loss is higher on average during this period. Variance of death loss percentage is also higher during this period. Parallels between evidence of structural change and possible industry and environmental catalysts are also discussed. Conclusions: Statistical evidence does indicate changes in the structure of death loss rates. Ongoing factors such as changes in feeding rations prompted by market forces and feeding technologies may have contributed to systematic change. Other events, such as weather events and beta agonist use could result in abrupt changes. No clear evidence directly connects these factors to death loss rates and disaggregated data would be required to facilitate such a study.

The Effect of Market Forces on Bovine Respiratory Disease.

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is a persistent negative economic impact on beef and dairy industries and the inability to show any progress in controlling BRD is a source of increasing frustration among animal health professionals and the industry. The complex economic structure of the cattle industry leads to market failures in which cow-calf producers do not have sufficient economic incentive to invest in improved BRD control. This leads to higher costs for stocker and feedlot sectors. An industry-wide comprehensive effort is needed to coordinate and motivate enhanced BRD control focusing on producing healthy calves with less morbidity rather than treatment.

Economic considerations of enhanced BRD control.

Cattle producers and animal health professionals are increasingly frustrated by the inability to reduce the impacts of bovine respiratory disease (BRD). Improved BRD control is difficult due to the complex nature of the disease; the complexity of cattle industry structure and function; and the imbalance of economic incentives for enhanced BRD control. Success in improving BRD control will depend on an industry-wide comprehensive effort to address lifetime animal health issues as well as correcting or offsetting imbalances in economic benefits and costs for enhanced animal health management across cattle production sectors.

Economics of stocker production.

The beef cattle industry, like any industry, is subject to economic signals to increase or decrease production according to short-run and long-run market conditions. Profitable stocker production is the result of careful matching of economic conditions to alternative animal production systems combined with sound animal and business management. The economics of stocker production are driven by the feeder cattle price-weight relation that combines broad market signals about how much production is needed with complex and subtle signals about how that production should be accomplished. The result is a dynamic set of values of gain that direct producers to adjust the level, type, and timing of stocker production according to changing market conditions.

Beef cattle growing and backgrounding programs.

The stocker industry is one of many diverse production and marketing activities that make up the United States beef industry. The stocker industry is probably the least understood industry sector and yet it plays a vital role in helping the industry exploit its competitive advantage of using forage resources and providing an economical means of adjusting the timing and volume of cattle and meat in a complex market environment.