Critical assessment of missense variant effect predictors on disease-relevant variant data.

Regular, systematic, and independent assessment of computational tools used to predict the pathogenicity of missense variants is necessary to evaluate their clinical and research utility and suggest directions for future improvement. Here, as part of the sixth edition of the Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) challenge, we assess missense variant effect predictors (or variant impact predictors) on an evaluation dataset of rare missense variants from disease-relevant databases. Our assessment evaluates predictors submitted to the CAGI6 Annotate-All-Missense challenge, predictors commonly used by the clinical genetics community, and recently developed deep learning methods for variant effect prediction. To explore a variety of settings that are relevant for different clinical and research applications, we assess performance within different subsets of the evaluation data and within high-specificity and high-sensitivity regimes. We find strong performance of many predictors across multiple settings. Meta-predictors tend to outperform their constituent individual predictors; however, several individual predictors have performance similar to that of commonly used meta-predictors. The relative performance of predictors differs in high-specificity and high-sensitivity regimes, suggesting that different methods may be best suited to different use cases. We also characterize two potential sources of bias. Predictors that incorporate allele frequency as a predictive feature tend to have reduced performance when distinguishing pathogenic variants from very rare benign variants, and predictors supervised on pathogenicity labels from curated variant databases often learn label imbalances within genes. Overall, we find notable advances over the oldest and most cited missense variant effect predictors and continued improvements among the most recently developed tools, and the CAGI Annotate-All-Missense challenge (also termed the Missense Marathon) will continue to assess state-of-the-art methods as the field progresses. Together, our results help illuminate the current clinical and research utility of missense variant effect predictors and identify potential areas for future development.

An algorithm for decoy-free false discovery rate estimation in XL-MS/MS proteomics.

MOTIVATION: Cross-linking tandem mass spectrometry (XL-MS/MS) is an established analytical platform used to determine distance constraints between residues within a protein or from physically interacting proteins, thus improving our understanding of protein structure and function. To aid biological discovery with XL-MS/MS, it is essential that pairs of chemically linked peptides be accurately identified, a process that requires: (i) database search, that creates a ranked list of candidate peptide pairs for each experimental spectrum and (ii) false discovery rate (FDR) estimation, that determines the probability of a false match in a group of top-ranked peptide pairs with scores above a given threshold. Currently, the only available FDR estimation mechanism in XL-MS/MS is the target-decoy approach (TDA). However, despite its simplicity, TDA has both theoretical and practical limitations that impact the estimation accuracy and increase run time over potential decoy-free approaches (DFAs). RESULTS: We introduce a novel decoy-free framework for FDR estimation in XL-MS/MS. Our approach relies on multi-sample mixtures of skew normal distributions, where the latent components correspond to the scores of correct peptide pairs (both peptides identified correctly), partially incorrect peptide pairs (one peptide identified correctly, the other incorrectly), and incorrect peptide pairs (both peptides identified incorrectly). To learn these components, we exploit the score distributions of first- and second-ranked peptide-spectrum matches for each experimental spectrum and subsequently estimate FDR using a novel expectation-maximization algorithm with constraints. We evaluate the method on ten datasets and provide evidence that the proposed DFA is theoretically sound and a viable alternative to TDA owing to its good performance in terms of accuracy, variance of estimation, and run time. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: https://github.com/shawn-peng/xlms.

Critical assessment of variant prioritization methods for rare disease diagnosis within the rare genomes project.

BACKGROUND: A major obstacle faced by families with rare diseases is obtaining a genetic diagnosis. The average "diagnostic odyssey" lasts over five years and causal variants are identified in under 50%, even when capturing variants genome-wide. To aid in the interpretation and prioritization of the vast number of variants detected, computational methods are proliferating. Knowing which tools are most effective remains unclear. To evaluate the performance of computational methods, and to encourage innovation in method development, we designed a Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) community challenge to place variant prioritization models head-to-head in a real-life clinical diagnostic setting. METHODS: We utilized genome sequencing (GS) data from families sequenced in the Rare Genomes Project (RGP), a direct-to-participant research study on the utility of GS for rare disease diagnosis and gene discovery. Challenge predictors were provided with a dataset of variant calls and phenotype terms from 175 RGP individuals (65 families), including 35 solved training set families with causal variants specified, and 30 unlabeled test set families (14 solved, 16 unsolved). We tasked teams to identify causal variants in as many families as possible. Predictors submitted variant predictions with estimated probability of causal relationship (EPCR) values. Model performance was determined by two metrics, a weighted score based on the rank position of causal variants, and the maximum F-measure, based on precision and recall of causal variants across all EPCR values. RESULTS: Sixteen teams submitted predictions from 52 models, some with manual review incorporated. Top performers recalled causal variants in up to 13 of 14 solved families within the top 5 ranked variants. Newly discovered diagnostic variants were returned to two previously unsolved families following confirmatory RNA sequencing, and two novel disease gene candidates were entered into Matchmaker Exchange. In one example, RNA sequencing demonstrated aberrant splicing due to a deep intronic indel in ASNS, identified in trans with a frameshift variant in an unsolved proband with phenotypes consistent with asparagine synthetase deficiency. CONCLUSIONS: Model methodology and performance was highly variable. Models weighing call quality, allele frequency, predicted deleteriousness, segregation, and phenotype were effective in identifying causal variants, and models open to phenotype expansion and non-coding variants were able to capture more difficult diagnoses and discover new diagnoses. Overall, computational models can significantly aid variant prioritization. For use in diagnostics, detailed review and conservative assessment of prioritized variants against established criteria is needed.

Predicting the impact of rare variants on RNA splicing in CAGI6.

Variants which disrupt splicing are a frequent cause of rare disease that have been under-ascertained clinically. Accurate and efficient methods to predict a variant's impact on splicing are needed to interpret the growing number of variants of unknown significance (VUS) identified by exome and genome sequencing. Here, we present the results of the CAGI6 Splicing VUS challenge, which invited predictions of the splicing impact of 56 variants ascertained clinically and functionally validated to determine splicing impact. The performance of 12 prediction methods, along with SpliceAI and CADD, was compared on the 56 functionally validated variants. The maximum accuracy achieved was 82% from two different approaches, one weighting SpliceAI scores by minor allele frequency, and one applying the recently published Splicing Prediction Pipeline (SPiP). SPiP performed optimally in terms of sensitivity, while an ensemble method combining multiple prediction tools and information from databases exceeded all others for specificity. Several challenge methods equalled or exceeded the performance of SpliceAI, with ultimate choice of prediction method likely to depend on experimental or clinical aims. One quarter of the variants were incorrectly predicted by at least 50% of the methods, highlighting the need for further improvements to splicing prediction methods for successful clinical application.

Critical assessment of variant prioritization methods for rare disease diagnosis within the Rare Genomes Project.

Background: A major obstacle faced by rare disease families is obtaining a genetic diagnosis. The average "diagnostic odyssey" lasts over five years, and causal variants are identified in under 50%. The Rare Genomes Project (RGP) is a direct-to-participant research study on the utility of genome sequencing (GS) for diagnosis and gene discovery. Families are consented for sharing of sequence and phenotype data with researchers, allowing development of a Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) community challenge, placing variant prioritization models head-to-head in a real-life clinical diagnostic setting. Methods: Predictors were provided a dataset of phenotype terms and variant calls from GS of 175 RGP individuals (65 families), including 35 solved training set families, with causal variants specified, and 30 test set families (14 solved, 16 unsolved). The challenge tasked teams with identifying the causal variants in as many test set families as possible. Ranked variant predictions were submitted with estimated probability of causal relationship (EPCR) values. Model performance was determined by two metrics, a weighted score based on rank position of true positive causal variants and maximum F-measure, based on precision and recall of causal variants across EPCR thresholds. Results: Sixteen teams submitted predictions from 52 models, some with manual review incorporated. Top performing teams recalled the causal variants in up to 13 of 14 solved families by prioritizing high quality variant calls that were rare, predicted deleterious, segregating correctly, and consistent with reported phenotype. In unsolved families, newly discovered diagnostic variants were returned to two families following confirmatory RNA sequencing, and two prioritized novel disease gene candidates were entered into Matchmaker Exchange. In one example, RNA sequencing demonstrated aberrant splicing due to a deep intronic indel in ASNS, identified in trans with a frameshift variant, in an unsolved proband with phenotype overlap with asparagine synthetase deficiency. Conclusions: By objective assessment of variant predictions, we provide insights into current state-of-the-art algorithms and platforms for genome sequencing analysis for rare disease diagnosis and explore areas for future optimization. Identification of diagnostic variants in unsolved families promotes synergy between researchers with clinical and computational expertise as a means of advancing the field of clinical genome interpretation.

New mixture models for decoy-free false discovery rate estimation in mass spectrometry proteomics.

MOTIVATION: Accurate estimation of false discovery rate (FDR) of spectral identification is a central problem in mass spectrometry-based proteomics. Over the past two decades, target-decoy approaches (TDAs) and decoy-free approaches (DFAs) have been widely used to estimate FDR. TDAs use a database of decoy species to faithfully model score distributions of incorrect peptide-spectrum matches (PSMs). DFAs, on the other hand, fit two-component mixture models to learn the parameters of correct and incorrect PSM score distributions. While conceptually straightforward, both approaches lead to problems in practice, particularly in experiments that push instrumentation to the limit and generate low fragmentation-efficiency and low signal-to-noise-ratio spectra. RESULTS: We introduce a new decoy-free framework for FDR estimation that generalizes present DFAs while exploiting more search data in a manner similar to TDAs. Our approach relies on multi-component mixtures, in which score distributions corresponding to the correct PSMs, best incorrect PSMs and second-best incorrect PSMs are modeled by the skew normal family. We derive EM algorithms to estimate parameters of these distributions from the scores of best and second-best PSMs associated with each experimental spectrum. We evaluate our models on multiple proteomics datasets and a HeLa cell digest case study consisting of more than a million spectra in total. We provide evidence of improved performance over existing DFAs and improved stability and speed over TDAs without any performance degradation. We propose that the new strategy has the potential to extend beyond peptide identification and reduce the need for TDA on all analytical platforms. AVAILABILITYAND IMPLEMENTATION: https://github.com/shawn-peng/FDR-estimation. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Enumerating consistent sub-graphs of directed acyclic graphs: an insight into biomedical ontologies.

Motivation: Modern problems of concept annotation associate an object of interest (gene, individual, text document) with a set of interrelated textual descriptors (functions, diseases, topics), often organized in concept hierarchies or ontologies. Most ontology can be seen as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where nodes represent concepts and edges represent relational ties between these concepts. Given an ontology graph, each object can only be annotated by a consistent sub-graph; that is, a sub-graph such that if an object is annotated by a particular concept, it must also be annotated by all other concepts that generalize it. Ontologies therefore provide a compact representation of a large space of possible consistent sub-graphs; however, until now we have not been aware of a practical algorithm that can enumerate such annotation spaces for a given ontology. Results: We propose an algorithm for enumerating consistent sub-graphs of DAGs. The algorithm recursively partitions the graph into strictly smaller graphs until the resulting graph becomes a rooted tree (forest), for which a linear-time solution is computed. It then combines the tallies from graphs created in the recursion to obtain the final count. We prove the correctness of this algorithm, propose several practical accelerations, evaluate it on random graphs and then apply it to characterize four major biomedical ontologies. We believe this work provides valuable insights into the complexity of concept annotation spaces and its potential influence on the predictability of ontological annotation. Availability and implementation: https://github.com/shawn-peng/counting-consistent-sub-DAG. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.