Preclinical pilot studies: Five common pitfalls and how to avoid them.

Pilots are small-scale initial experiments that are intended to guide the design of future, larger studies, with a view to increasing their effectiveness. In this statistical primer we highlight five common mistakes that limit the utility of pilot studies and provide practical guidance to avoid such errors and increase their effectiveness. The common thread connecting these mistakes is insufficient planning and over-interpretation of the results. This approach compromises the ultimate goals of the research programme and the future experimental cascade. In support of our view that over-interpretation is an error, we present a simple simulation to demonstrate that pilots will generally generate an inaccurate estimate of the variability of the biological endpoint under study and that frequent under-estimation will lead to inconclusive and unethical subsequent experiments. We argue that well planned pilots are an important part of the research cascade and still need to be implemented to a high standard.

Developmental origin of oligodendrocytes determines their function in the adult brain.

In the mouse embryonic forebrain, developmentally distinct oligodendrocyte progenitor cell populations and their progeny, oligodendrocytes, emerge from three distinct regions in a spatiotemporal gradient from ventral to dorsal. However, the functional importance of this oligodendrocyte developmental heterogeneity is unknown. Using a genetic strategy to ablate dorsally derived oligodendrocyte lineage cells (OLCs), we show here that the areas in which dorsally derived OLCs normally reside in the adult central nervous system become populated and myelinated by OLCs of ventral origin. These ectopic oligodendrocytes (eOLs) have a distinctive gene expression profile as well as subtle myelination abnormalities. The failure of eOLs to fully assume the role of the original dorsally derived cells results in locomotor and cognitive deficits in the adult animal. This study reveals the importance of developmental heterogeneity within the oligodendrocyte lineage and its importance for homeostatic brain function.

Overcoming Osimertinib Resistance with AKT Inhibition in EGFRm-Driven Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer with PIK3CA/PTEN Alterations.

PURPOSE: Osimertinib is an EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor indicated for the treatment of EGFR-mutated (EGFRm)-driven lung adenocarcinomas. Osimertinib significantly improves progression-free survival in first-line-treated patients with EGFRm advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Despite the durable disease control, the majority of patients receiving osimertinib eventually develop disease progression. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: ctDNA profiling analysis of on-progression plasma samples from patients treated with osimertinib in both first- (phase III, FLAURA trial) and second-line trials (phase III, AURA3 trial) revealed a high prevalence of PIK3CA/AKT/PTEN alterations. In vitro and in vivo evidence using CRISPR-engineered NSCLC cell lines and patient-derived xenograft (PDX) models supports a functional role for PIK3CA and PTEN mutations in the development of osimertinib resistance. RESULTS: These alterations are functionally relevant as EGFRm NSCLC cells with engineered PIK3CA/AKT/PTEN alterations develop resistance to osimertinib and can be resensitized by treatment with the combination of osimertinib and the AKT inhibitor capivasertib. Moreover, xenograft and PDX in vivo models with PIK3CA/AKT/PTEN alterations display limited sensitivity to osimertinib relative to models without alterations, and in these double-mutant models, capivasertib and osimertinib combination elicits an improved antitumor effect versus osimertinib alone. CONCLUSIONS: Together, this approach offers a potential treatment strategy for patients with EGFRm-driven NSCLC who have a suboptimal response or develop resistance to osimertinib through PIK3CA/AKT/PTEN alterations. See related commentary by Vokes et al., p. 3968.

5-HT 2A and 5-HT 2C receptor antagonism differentially modulate reinforcement learning and cognitive flexibility: behavioural and computational evidence.

RATIONALE: Cognitive flexibility, the ability to adapt behaviour in response to a changing environment, is disrupted in several neuropsychiatric disorders, including obsessive-compulsive disorder and major depressive disorder. Evidence suggests that flexibility, which can be operationalised using reversal learning tasks, is modulated by serotonergic transmission. However, how exactly flexible behaviour and associated reinforcement learning (RL) processes are modulated by 5-HT action on specific receptors is unknown. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the effects of 5-HT2A receptor (5-HT2AR) and 5-HT2C receptor (5-HT2CR) antagonism on flexibility and underlying RL mechanisms. METHODS: Thirty-six male Lister hooded rats were trained on a touchscreen visual discrimination and reversal task. We evaluated the effects of systemic treatments with the 5-HT2AR and 5-HT2CR antagonists M100907 and SB-242084, respectively, on reversal learning and performance on probe trials where correct and incorrect stimuli were presented with a third, probabilistically rewarded, stimulus. Computational models were fitted to task choice data to extract RL parameters, including a novel model designed specifically for this task. RESULTS: 5-HT2AR antagonism impaired reversal learning only after an initial perseverative phase, during a period of random choice and then new learning. 5-HT2CR antagonism, on the other hand, impaired learning from positive feedback. RL models further differentiated these effects. 5-HT2AR antagonism decreased punishment learning rate (i.e. negative feedback) at high and low doses. The low dose also decreased reinforcement sensitivity (beta) and increased stimulus and side stickiness (i.e., the tendency to repeat a choice regardless of outcome). 5-HT2CR antagonism also decreased beta, but reduced side stickiness. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that 5-HT2A and 5-HT2CRs both modulate different aspects of flexibility, with 5-HT2ARs modulating learning from negative feedback as measured using RL parameters and 5-HT2CRs for learning from positive feedback assessed through conventional measures.

The ATR inhibitor ceralasertib potentiates cancer checkpoint immunotherapy by regulating the tumor microenvironment.

The Ataxia telangiectasia and Rad3-related (ATR) inhibitor ceralasertib in combination with the PD-L1 antibody durvalumab demonstrated encouraging clinical benefit in melanoma and lung cancer patients who progressed on immunotherapy. Here we show that modelling of intermittent ceralasertib treatment in mouse tumor models reveals CD8+ T-cell dependent antitumor activity, which is separate from the effects on tumor cells. Ceralasertib suppresses proliferating CD8+ T-cells on treatment which is rapidly reversed off-treatment. Ceralasertib causes up-regulation of type I interferon (IFNI) pathway in cancer patients and in tumor-bearing mice. IFNI is experimentally found to be a major mediator of antitumor activity of ceralasertib in combination with PD-L1 antibody. Improvement of T-cell function after ceralasertib treatment is linked to changes in myeloid cells in the tumor microenvironment. IFNI also promotes anti-proliferative effects of ceralasertib on tumor cells. Here, we report that broad immunomodulatory changes following intermittent ATR inhibition underpins the clinical therapeutic benefit and indicates its wider impact on antitumor immunity.

Reconsidering repurposing: long-term metformin treatment impairs cognition in Alzheimer's model mice.

Metformin, a primary anti-diabetic medication, has been anticipated to provide benefits for Alzheimer's disease (AD), also known as "type 3 diabetes". Nevertheless, some studies have demonstrated that metformin may trigger AD pathology and even elevate AD risk in humans. Despite this, limited research has elucidated the behavioral outcomes of metformin treatment, which would hold significant translational value. Thus, we aimed to perform thorough behavioral research on the prolonged administration of metformin to mice: We administered metformin (300 mg/kg/day) to transgenic 3xTg-AD and non-transgenic (NT) C57BL/6 mice over 1 and 2 years, respectively, and evaluated their behaviors across multiple domains via touchscreen operant chambers, including motivation, attention, memory, visual discrimination, and cognitive flexibility. We found metformin enhanced attention, inhibitory control, and associative learning in younger NT mice (≤16 months). However, chronic treatment led to impairments in memory retention and discrimination learning at older age. Furthermore, metformin caused learning and memory impairment and increased levels of AMPKα1-subunit, ß-amyloid oligomers, plaques, phosphorylated tau, and GSK3ß expression in AD mice. No changes in potential confounding factors on cognition, including levels of motivation, locomotion, appetite, body weight, blood glucose, and serum vitamin B12, were observed in metformin-treated AD mice. We also identified an enhanced amyloidogenic pathway in db/db mice, as well as in Neuro2a-APP695 cells and a decrease in synaptic markers, such as PSD-95 and synaptophysin in primary neurons, upon metformin treatment. Our findings collectively suggest that the repurposing of metformin should be carefully reconsidered when this drug is used for individuals with AD.

Refining the study of decision-making in animals: differential effects of d-amphetamine and haloperidol in a novel touchscreen-automated Rearing-Effort Discounting (RED) task and the Fixed-Ratio Effort Discounting (FRED) task.

Effort-based decision-making is impaired in multiple psychopathologies leading to significant impacts on the daily life of patients. Preclinical studies of this important transdiagnostic symptom in rodents are hampered, however, by limitations present in currently available decision-making tests, including the presence of delayed reinforcement and off-target cognitive demands. Such possible confounding factors can complicate the interpretation of results in terms of decision-making per se. In this study we addressed this problem using a novel touchscreen Rearing-Effort Discounting (RED) task in which mice choose between two single-touch responses: rearing up to touch an increasingly higher positioned stimulus to obtain a High Reward (HR) or touching a lower stimulus to obtain a Low Reward (LR). To explore the putative advantages of this new approach, RED was compared with a touchscreen version of the well-studied Fixed Ratio-based Effort Discounting (FRED) task, in which multiple touches are required to obtain an HR, and a single response is required to obtain an LR. Results from dopaminergic (haloperidol and d-amphetamine), behavioral (changes in the order of effort demand; fixed-ratio schedule in FRED or response height in RED), and dietary manipulations (reward devaluation by pre-feeding) were consistent with the presence of variables that may complicate interpretation of conventional decision-making tasks, and demonstrate how RED appears to minimize such variables.

Comparable roles for serotonin in rats and humans for computations underlying flexible decision-making.

Serotonin is critical for adapting behavior flexibly to meet changing environmental demands. Cognitive flexibility is important for successful attainment of goals, as well as for social interactions, and is frequently impaired in neuropsychiatric disorders, including obsessive-compulsive disorder. However, a unifying mechanistic framework accounting for the role of serotonin in behavioral flexibility has remained elusive. Here, we demonstrate common effects of manipulating serotonin function across two species (rats and humans) on latent processes supporting choice behavior during probabilistic reversal learning, using computational modelling. The findings support a role of serotonin in behavioral flexibility and plasticity, indicated, respectively, by increases or decreases in choice repetition ('stickiness') or reinforcement learning rates following manipulations intended to increase or decrease serotonin function. More specifically, the rate at which expected value increased following reward and decreased following punishment (reward and punishment 'learning rates') was greatest after sub-chronic administration of the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) citalopram (5 mg/kg for 7 days followed by 10 mg/kg twice a day for 5 days) in rats. Conversely, humans given a single dose of an SSRI (20 mg escitalopram), which can decrease post-synaptic serotonin signalling, and rats that received the neurotoxin 5,7-dihydroxytryptamine (5,7-DHT), which destroys forebrain serotonergic neurons, exhibited decreased reward learning rates. A basic perseverative tendency ('stickiness'), or choice repetition irrespective of the outcome produced, was likewise increased in rats after the 12-day SSRI regimen and decreased after single dose SSRI in humans and 5,7-DHT in rats. These common effects of serotonergic manipulations on rats and humans-identified via computational modelling-suggest an evolutionarily conserved role for serotonin in plasticity and behavioral flexibility and have clinical relevance transdiagnostically for neuropsychiatric disorders.

Whole-cage randomization for animal studies with unequal cage or group sizes.

Following good statistical practice, in vivo study investigators allocate animals into two or more treatment groups using a randomization routine to eliminate selection bias and balance known and unknown confounding factors. For some studies, however, randomization at the individual animal level cannot be implemented. For example, for studies that involve co-housed male mice, an animal-level randomization can place unfamiliar mice together in the same cage, which can trigger fighting. To meet the ethical obligations to enhance the welfare of an animal used in science, the experimental procedures are, therefore, often modified, and male mice, possibly from the same brood, may be housed together. It follows that animal allocation into groups must proceed at the whole-cage level. Given the small sample sizes in animal studies, controlling baseline variables can be quite challenging. The difficulty greatly increases with a whole-cage randomization restriction. When the number of animals per cage or the treatment group sizes are unequal, there is no algorithm in the literature to perform the task. We propose a novel, fast, and reliable algorithm to provide a whole-cage randomization that balances one or more baseline variables across groups. The algorithm was applied to a realistic example dataset.

Statistical simulations show that scientists need not increase overall sample size by default when including both sexes in in vivo studies.

In recent years, there has been a strong drive to improve the inclusion of animals of both sexes in the design of in vivo research studies, driven by a need to increase sex representation in fundamental biology and drug development. This has resulted in inclusion mandates by funding bodies and journals, alongside numerous published manuscripts highlighting the issue and providing guidance to scientists. However, progress is slow and barriers to the routine use of both sexes remain. A frequent, major concern is the perceived need for a higher overall sample size to achieve an equivalent level of statistical power, which would result in an increased ethical and resource burden. This perception arises from either the belief that sex inclusion will increase variability in the data (either through a baseline difference or a treatment effect that depends on sex), thus reducing the sensitivity of statistical tests, or from misapprehensions about the correct way to analyse the data, including disaggregation or pooling by sex. Here, we conduct an in-depth examination of the consequences of including both sexes on statistical power. We performed simulations by constructing artificial datasets that encompass a range of outcomes that may occur in studies studying a treatment effect in the context of both sexes. This includes both baseline sex differences and situations in which the size of the treatment effect depends on sex in both the same and opposite directions. The data were then analysed using either a factorial analysis approach, which is appropriate for the design, or a t test approach following pooling or disaggregation of the data, which are common but erroneous strategies. The results demonstrate that there is no loss of power to detect treatment effects when splitting the sample size across sexes in most scenarios, providing that the data are analysed using an appropriate factorial analysis method (e.g., two-way ANOVA). In the rare situations where power is lost, the benefit of understanding the role of sex outweighs the power considerations. Additionally, use of the inappropriate analysis pipelines results in a loss of statistical power. Therefore, we recommend analysing data collected from both sexes using factorial analysis and splitting the sample size across male and female mice as a standard strategy.

Procalcitonin Values Fail to Track the Presence of Secondary Bacterial Infections in COVID-19 ICU Patients.

The development of secondary bacterial infections in COVID-19 patients has been associated with increased mortality and worse clinical outcomes. Consequently, many patients have received empirical antibiotic therapies with the potential to further exacerbate an ongoing antimicrobial resistance crisis. The pandemic has seen a rise in the use of procalcitonin testing to guide antimicrobial prescribing, although its value remains elusive. This single-centre retrospective study sought to analyse the efficacy of procalcitonin in identifying secondary infections in COVID-19 patients and evaluate the proportion of patients prescribed antibiotics to those with confirmed secondary infection. Inclusion criteria comprised patients admitted to the Grange University Hospital intensive care unit with SARS-CoV-2 infection throughout the second and third waves of the pandemic. Data collected included daily inflammatory biomarkers, antimicrobial prescriptions, and microbiologically proven secondary infections. There was no statistically significant difference between PCT, WBC, or CRP values in those with an infection versus those without. A total of 57.02% of patients had a confirmed secondary infection, with 80.2% prescribed antibiotics in Wave 2, compared to 44.07% with confirmed infection and 52.1% prescribed antibiotics in Wave 3. In conclusion, procalcitonin values failed to indicate the emergence of critical care-acquired infection in COVID-19 patients.

Postoperative Handheld Gastric Point-of-Care Ultrasound and Delayed Bowel Function.

BACKGROUND: Delayed bowel function (DBF) following intra-abdominal surgery is a common problem that contributes to postoperative complications and prolonged length of stay. Use of a handheld gastric point-of-care ultrasound (GPOCUS) can identify a full vs empty stomach in the postoperative period. We hypothesized that the findings of a full stomach identified on a postoperative day 1 (POD1) GPOCUS exam would predict an increased risk of delayed bowel function. STUDY DESIGN: A blinded, prospective cohort study was performed. Postoperative colorectal surgery patients were identified as having either a full or empty stomach based on previously published definitions. GPOCUS examinations were performed on POD1 using a handheld ultrasound device, and the clinicians were blinded to the results. Demographic and perioperative data were collected. The primary outcome variable was gastrointestinal-3 (GI-3) recovery, defined as time to tolerance of diet and either flatus or bowel movement. RESULTS: Fifty-six patients agreed to participate in the study; fifty were eligible and included. Eighteen patients' stomachs were identified as full on POD1 GPOCUS examination, and thirty-two were identified as empty. No significant demographic or perioperative differences existed between groups. Patients with full stomachs had significantly delayed GI-3 recovery (4 vs 1 days, p < 0.0001) and longer length of stay (5 vs 3 days, p < 0.0001). Full-stomach patients also had significantly more emesis and nasogastric tube (NGT) placement (both p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: GPOCUS performed on POD1 can predict DBF, length of stay, likelihood of emesis, and NGT placement. Use of handheld devices for GPOCUS showed promise for the identification of patients at high risk for DBF and could provide an opportunity for pre-emptive intervention.

Joseph Murray: Pioneering Plastic Surgeon and Father of the First Organ Transplant.

Dr. Joseph Murray was a plastic surgeon who is best known for performing the first successful human organ transplant. After graduating from Harvard Medical School and completing a surgical internship at Peter Bent Brigham Hospital, Murray enlisted in the US Army Medical Corp and spent 5 years at Valley Forge General Hospital treating World War II soldiers injured in combat. He treated hundreds of burn victims with skin grafts and took an interest in the variable process of graft rejection based on both the patient's relation to the graft donor and the patient's level of immunocompetency. His work at Valley Forge set the stage for his research investigating the feasibility of kidney transplantation and immunosuppression. He went on to perform the first successful kidney transplant between identical twins in 1954, between fraternal twins in 1959, and between an unrelated donor and recipient in 1962. For his efforts, he was awarded the 1990 Nobel Prize in Medicine.

Retrospective analysis of the potential use of virtual control groups in preclinical toxicity assessment using the eTOX database.

Virtual Control Groups (VCGs) based on Historical Control Data (HCD) in preclinical toxicity testing have the potential to reduce animal usage. As a case study we retrospectively analyzed the impact of replacing Concurrent Control Groups (CCGs) with VCGs on the treatment-relatedness of 28 selected histopathological findings reported in either rat or dog in the eTOX database. We developed a novel methodology whereby statistical predictions of treatment-relatedness using either CCGs or VCGs of varying covariate similarity to CCGs were compared to designations from original toxicologist reports; and changes in agreement were used to quantify changes in study outcomes. Generally, the best agreement was achieved when CCGs were replaced with VCGs with the highest level of similarity; the same species, strain, sex, administration route, and vehicle. For example, balanced accuracies for rat findings were 0.704 (predictions based on CCGs) vs. 0.702 (predictions based on VCGs). Moreover, we identified covariates which resulted in poorer identification of treatment-relatedness. This was related to an increasing incidence rate divergence in HCD relative to CCGs. Future databases which collect data at the individual animal level including study details such as animal age and testing facility are required to build adequate VCGs to accurately identify treatment-related effects.

Statistical analysis of preclinical inter-species concordance of histopathological findings in the eTOX database.

Preclinical inter-species concordance can increase the predictivity of observations to the clinic, potentially reducing drug attrition caused by unforeseen adverse events. We quantified inter-species concordance of histopathological findings and target organ toxicities across four preclinical species in the eTOX database using likelihood ratios (LRs). This was done whilst only comparing findings between studies with similar compound exposure (Δ|Cmax| ≤ 1 log-unit), repeat-dosing duration, and animals of the same sex. We discovered 24 previously unreported significant inter-species associations between histopathological findings encoded by the HPATH ontology. More associations with strong positive concordance (33% LR+ > 10) relative to strong negative concordance (12.5% LR- < 0.1) were identified. Of the top 10 most positively concordant associations, 60% were computed between different histopathological findings indicating potential differences in inter-species pathogenesis. We also observed low inter-species target organ toxicity concordance. For example, liver toxicity concordance in short-term studies between female rats and dogs observed an average LR+ of 1.84, and an average LR- of 0.73. This was corroborated by similarly low concordance between rodents and non-rodents for 75 candidate drugs in AstraZeneca. This work provides new statistically significant associations between preclinical species, but finds that concordance is rare, particularly between the absence of findings.

Orographic amplification of El Niño teleconnections on winter precipitation across the Intermountain West of North America.

A large proportion of western North America experiences regular water stress, compounded by high seasonal and interannual variability. In the Intermountain West region, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a critical control on winter precipitation, but the nature of this signal is entangled with a combination of orographic effects and long-term climate trends. This study employs a spatially distributed, nonlinear spline model to isolate ENSO impacts from these other factors using gauge-based observations starting in 1871. In contrast to previous modelling approaches, our approach uses original gauge data, without shortening the record to accommodate a common period. This enables more detailed separation of ENSO effects from the confounding influence of topography and long-term trends, whereas the longer time frame permits more robust correlation with the ENSO signal. Here we show that the complex topography of the Intermountain West exaggerates the underlying ENSO signal, producing a 2.3-5.8 times increase in the range of ENSO-induced precipitation changes along high-elevation western slopes relative to lower elevations. ENSO effects on winter precipitation can be as large as ± 100 mm at high elevations. Further, our approach reveals that the previously recognized dipolar pattern of positive (negative) association of ENSO with precipitation in the south (north) manifests as an incremental relationship in the south but as a near-binary switch in effects between El Niño and La Niña in the north. The location and extent of the strongest precipitation differences vary during the positive and negative ENSO phases within each region. The intricacies of these spatial- and elevation-based modulations of ENSO impacts are especially informative for the northern centre of this dipole, where ENSO-precipitation relationships have previously been difficult to resolve.

Relaxin/insulin-like family peptide receptor 4 (Rxfp4) expressing hypothalamic neurons modulate food intake and preference in mice.

OBJECTIVE: Insulin-like peptide 5 (INSL5) signalling, through its cognate receptor relaxin/insulin-like family peptide receptor 4 (RXFP4), has been reported to be orexigenic, and the high fat diet (HFD) preference observed in wildtype mice is altered in Rxfp4 knock-out mice. In this study, we used a new Rxfp4-Cre mouse model to investigate the mechanisms underlying these observations. METHODS: We generated transgenic Rxfp4-Cre mice and investigated central expression of Rxfp4 by RT-qPCR, RNAscope and intraparenchymal infusion of INSL5. Rxfp4-expressing cells were chemogenetically manipulated in global Cre-reporter mice using designer receptors exclusively activated by designer drugs (DREADDs) or after stereotactic injection of a Cre-dependent AAV-DIO-Dq-DREADD targeting a population located in the ventromedial hypothalamus (RXFP4VMH). Food intake and feeding motivation were assessed in the presence and absence of a DREADD agonist. Rxfp4-expressing cells in the hypothalamus were characterised by single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNAseq) and the connectivity of RXFP4VMH cells was investigated using viral tracing. RESULTS: Rxfp4-Cre mice displayed Cre-reporter expression in the hypothalamus. Active expression of Rxfp4 in the adult mouse brain was confirmed by RT-qPCR and RNAscope. Functional receptor expression was supported by cyclic AMP-responses to INSL5 application in ex vivo brain slices and increased HFD and highly palatable liquid meal (HPM), but not chow, intake after intra-VMH INSL5 infusion. scRNAseq of hypothalamic RXFP4 neurons defined a cluster expressing VMH markers, alongside known appetite-modulating neuropeptide receptors (Mc4r, Cckar and Nmur2). Viral tracing demonstrated RXFP4VMH neural projections to nuclei implicated in hedonic feeding behaviour. Whole body chemogenetic inhibition (Di-DREADD) of Rxfp4-expressing cells, mimicking physiological INSL5-RXFP4 Gi-signalling, increased intake of the HFD and HPM, but not chow, whilst activation (Dq-DREADD), either at whole body level or specifically within the VMH, reduced HFD and HPM intake and motivation to work for the HPM. CONCLUSION: These findings identify RXFP4VMH neurons as regulators of food intake and preference, and hypothalamic RXFP4 signalling as a target for feeding behaviour manipulation.