Avoidable burden of stomach cancer and potential gains in healthy life years from gradual reductions in salt consumption in Vietnam, 2019-2030: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: Excess salt consumption is causally linked with stomach cancer, and salt intake among adults in Vietnam is about twice the recommended levels. The aim of this study was to quantify the future burden of stomach cancer that could be avoided from population-wide salt reduction in Vietnam. DESIGN: A dynamic simulation model was developed to quantify the impacts of achieving the 2018 National Vietnam Health Program (8 g/d by 2025 and 7 g/d by 2030) and the WHO (5 g/d) salt reduction policy targets. Data on salt consumption were obtained from the Vietnam 2015 WHO STEPS survey. Health outcomes were estimated over 6-year (2019-2025), 11-year (2019-2030) and lifetime horizons. We conducted one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. SETTING: Vietnam. PARTICIPANTS: All adults aged ≥ 25 years (61 million people, 48·4 % men) alive in 2019. RESULTS: Achieving the 2025 and 2030 national salt targets could result in 3400 and 7200 fewer incident cases of stomach cancer, respectively, and avert 1900 and 4800 stomach cancer deaths, respectively. Achieving the WHO target by 2030 could prevent 8400 incident cases and 5900 deaths from stomach cancer. Over the lifespan, this translated to 344 660 (8 g/d), 411 060 (7 g/d) and 493 633 (5 g/d) health-adjusted life years gained, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A sizeable burden of stomach cancer could be avoided, with gains in healthy life years if national and WHO salt targets were attained. Our findings provide impetus for policy makers in Vietnam and Asia to intensify salt reduction strategies to combat stomach cancer and mitigate pressure on the health systems.

Dietary Salt Reduction, Prevalence of Hypertension and Avoidable Burden of Stroke in Vietnam: Modelling the Health and Economic Impacts.

Dietary salt reduction has been recommended as a cost-effective population-wide strategy to prevent cardiovascular disease. The health and economic impact of salt consumption on the future burden of stroke in Vietnam is not known. Objective: To estimate the avoidable incidence of and deaths from stroke, as well as the healthy life years and healthcare costs that could be gained from reducing salt consumption in Vietnam. Methods: This was a macrosimulation health and economic impact assessment study. Data on blood pressure, salt consumption and stroke epidemiology were obtained from the Vietnam 2015 STEPS survey and the Global Burden of Disease study. A proportional multi-cohort multistate lifetable Markov model was used to estimate the impact of achieving the Vietnam national salt targets of 8 g/day by 2025 and 7 g/day by 2030, and to the 5 g/day WHO recommendation by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted to quantify the uncertainty in our projections. Results: If the 8 g/day, 7 g/day, and 5 g/day targets were achieved, the prevalence of hypertension could reduce by 1.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.5 to 2.3), 2.0% (95% UI: 0.8 to 3.6), and 3.5% (95% UI: 1.5 to 6.3), respectively. This would translate, respectively, to over 80,000, 180,000, and 257,000 incident strokes and over 18,000, 55,000, and 73,000 stroke deaths averted. By 2025, over 56,554 stroke-related health-adjusted life years (HALYs) could be gained while saving over US$ 42.6 million in stroke healthcare costs. By 2030, about 206,030 HALYs (for 7 g/day target) and 262,170 HALYs (for 5 g/day target) could be gained while saving over US$ 88.1 million and US$ 122.3 million in stroke healthcare costs respectively. Conclusion: Achieving the national salt reduction targets could result in substantial population health and economic benefits. Estimated gains were larger if the WHO salt targets were attained and if changes can be sustained over the longer term. Future work should consider the equity impacts of specific salt reduction programs.

Cardiac procedures in ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction - the influence of age, geography and Aboriginality.

BACKGROUND: Timely restoration of bloodflow acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) reduces myocardial damage and improves prognosis. The objective of this study was describe the association of demographic factors with hospitalisation rates for STEMI and time to angiography, Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) and Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG) in New South Wales (NSW) and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Australia. METHODS: This was an observational cohort study using linked population health data. We used linked records of NSW and the ACT hospitalisations and the Australian Government Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) for persons aged 35 and over hospitalised with STEMI in the period 1 July 2010 to 30 June 2014. Survival analysis was used to determine the time between STEMI admission and angiography, PCI and CABG, with a competing risk of death without cardiac procedure. RESULTS: Of 13,117 STEMI hospitalisations, 71% were among males; 55% were 65-plus years; 64% lived in major cities, and 2.6% were Aboriginal people. STEMI hospitalisation occurred at a younger age in males than females. Angiography and PCI rates decreased with age: angiography 69% vs 42% and PCI 60% vs 34% on day 0 for ages 35-44 and 75-plus respectively. Lower angiography and PCI rates and higher CABG rates were observed outside major cities. Aboriginal people with STEMI were younger and more likely to live outside a major city. Angiography, PCI and CABG rates were similar for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people of the same age and remoteness area. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need to improve access to definitive revascularisation for STEMI among appropriately selected older patients and in regional areas. Aboriginal people with STEMI, as a population, are disproportionately affected by access to definitive revascularisation outside major cities. Improving access to timely definitive revascularisation in regional areas may assist in closing the gap in cardiovascular outcomes between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people.

Misclassification of blood pressure of Vietnamese adults when only a single measurement is used.

A single clinic measurement of blood pressure (BP) may be common in low- and middle-income countries because of limited medical resources. This study aimed to examine the potential misclassification error when only one BP measurement is used. Participants (n = 14,706, 53.5% females) aged 25-64 years were selected by multistage stratified cluster sampling from eight provinces, each representing one of the eight geographical regions of Vietnam. Measurements were made using the World Health Organization STEPS protocols. Data were analyzed using complex survey methods. For systolic BP, 62.7% had a higher first reading whereas 30.0% had a lower first reading, and 27.3% had a reduction of at least 5 mmHg whereas 9.6% had an increase of at least 5 mmHg. Irrespective of direction of change, increased variability in BP was associated with greater age, urban living, greater body size and fatness, reduced physical activity levels, elevated glucose, and raised total cholesterol. These measurement variations would lead to substantial misclassification in diagnosis of hypertension based on a single reading because almost 20% of subjects would receive a different diagnosis based on the mean of two readings.

Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression of maternal depressive symptoms in South Western Sydney, Australia.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing interest in the role played by maternal depression in mediating the effects of adversity during pregnancy and poor infant outcomes. There is also increasing evidence from multilevel regression studies for an association of area-level economic deprivation and poor individual mental health. The purpose of the study reported here is to explore the spatial distribution of postnatal depressive symptoms in South Western Sydney, Australia, and to identify covariate associations that could inform subsequent multilevel studies. METHODS: Mothers (n = 15,389) delivering in 2002 and 2003 were assessed at 2-3 weeks after delivery for risk factors for depressive symptoms. The individual-level binary outcome variables were Edinburgh Depression Scale (EDS) >9 and >12. The association between social, demographic and ecological factors and aggregated outcome variables were investigated using exploratory factor analysis and multivariate hierarchical Bayesian spatial regression. Relative risks from the final EDS >12 regression model were mapped to visualise the contribution from explanatory covariates and residual components. RESULTS: The exploratory factor analysis identified six factors: neighbourhood adversity, social cohesion, health behaviours, housing quality, social services, and support networks. Variables associated with neighbourhood adversity, social cohesion, social networks, and ethnic diversity were consistently associated with aggregated depressive symptoms. Measures of social disadvantage, lack of social cohesion and lack of social capital were associated with increased depressive symptoms. The association with social disadvantage was not significant when controlling for ethnic diversity and social capital. CONCLUSIONS: The findings support the theoretical proposition that neighbourhood adversity causes maternal psychological distress and depression within the context of social buffers including social networks, social cohesion, and social services. The finding have implications for the distribution of health services including early nurse home visiting which has recently been confirmed to be effective in preventing postnatal depression.

Immigrant maternal depression and social networks. A multilevel Bayesian spatial logistic regression in South Western Sydney, Australia.

The purpose is to explore the multilevel spatial distribution of depressive symptoms among migrant mothers in South Western Sydney and to identify any group level associations that could inform subsequent theory building and local public health interventions. Migrant mothers (n=7256) delivering in 2002 and 2003 were assessed at 2-3 weeks after delivery for risk factors for depressive symptoms. The binary outcome variables were Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale scores (EPDS) of >9 and >12. Individual level variables included were: financial income, self-reported maternal health, social support network, emotional support, practical support, baby trouble sleeping, baby demanding and baby not content. The group level variable reported here is aggregated social support networks. We used Bayesian hierarchical multilevel spatial modelling with conditional autoregression. Migrant mothers were at higher risk of having depressive symptoms if they lived in a community with predominantly Australian-born mothers and strong social capital as measured by aggregated social networks. These findings suggest that migrant mothers are socially isolated and current home visiting services should be strengthened for migrant mothers living in communities where they may have poor social networks.

Clusters of maternal depressive symptoms in South Western Sydney, Australia.

The purpose of this study is to explore the spatial distribution of perinatal depressive symptoms in South Western Sydney, Australia, and to identify any clusters that could inform subsequent qualitative, ecological and multilevel studies and local public health interventions. A routine survey of mothers with newborn infants was commenced in 2000. The survey included the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Mothers (n=15,389) delivering in 2002 and 2003 were assessed at 2-3 weeks after delivery for risk factors for depressive symptoms. The binary outcome variables were EPDS>9 and EPDS>12. EPDS>9 and EPDS>12 was mapped for 101 suburbs using likelihood standardised morbidity ratios (SMRs) and Bayesian log-normal models with conditional autoregressive (CAR) components. Open domain software SaTScan™ was used to test for the presence of clusters. The Bayesian methods identified clusters of depressive symptoms in north-east, north-west and southern areas of the study region. The northern clusters were statistically significant using SaTScan™. There were two high risk clusters of EPDS>9 (radius 4.3 and 5.6 km, both p<0.001) and two high risk clusters of EPDS>12 (radius 1.8 km p=0.003 and radius 3.97 km p=0.012). The clusters were in regions known to be socially disadvantaged and with high rates of non-English speaking migrants. The study findings will be used to inform future qualitative and epidemiological research, and to plan interagency early intervention services for women, children and their families.

Relationship of postnatal depressive symptoms to infant temperament, maternal expectations, social support and other potential risk factors: findings from a large Australian cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: From 2000 a routine survey of mothers with newborn infants was commenced in South Western Sydney. The survey included the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and risk factors for postnatal depressive symptoms in women living in metropolitan Sydney, Australia. METHODS: Mothers (n=15,389) delivering in 2002 and 2003 were assessed at 2-3 weeks after delivery for risk factors for depressive symptoms. The binary outcome variables were EPDS>9 and >12. Logistic regression was used for the multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The prevalence of EPDS>9 was 16.93 per 100 (95% CI: 16.34 to 17.52) and EPDS>12 was 7.73 per 100 (95% CI: 6.96 to 7.78). The final parsimonious logistic regression models included measures of infant behaviour, financial stress, mother's expectation of motherhood, emotional support, sole parenthood, social support and mother's country of birth. CONCLUSIONS: Infant temperament and unmet maternal expectations have a strong association with depressive symptoms with implications for the design of both preventative and treatment strategies. The findings also support the proposition that social exclusion and social isolation are important determinants of maternal depression.

The changing phases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Queensland: an overview of public health actions and epidemiology.

A graded public health response was implemented to control the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak in Queensland. Public health measures to contain the outbreak included border control, enhanced surveillance, management of cases and contacts with isolation or quarantine and antivirals, school closures and public education messages. The first confirmed case in Australia was notified on 8 May 2009, in a traveller returning to Queensland from the United States. In Queensland, 593 laboratory-confirmed cases were notified with a date of onset between 26 April and 22 June 2009, when the Protect phase of the Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza was implemented; 16 hospitalisations and no deaths were reported during this time. The largest number of confirmed cases was reported in the 10-19-years age group (167, 28% of cases), followed by the 20-29-years age group (153, 26% of cases). With ongoing community transmission, the focus has shifted from public health to the clinical domain, with an emphasis on protecting vulnerable groups. Considerable resources have been invested to prevent and control the spread of disease in Indigenous communities in Far North Queensland. The capacity of clinical services to cope with increased admissions, the potential for widespread antiviral resistance, and rollout of mass vaccination campaigns remain future challenges.

Access block in NSW hospitals, 1999-2001: does the definition matter?

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the magnitude of access block and its trend over time in New South Wales hospitals, using different definitions of access block, and to explore its association with clinical and non-clinical factors. DESIGN AND SETTING: An epidemiological study using the Emergency Department Information System datasets (1 January 1999 to 31 December 2001) from a sample of 55 NSW hospitals. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of access block measured by four different definitions; strength of association between access block, type of hospital, year of presentation, mode and time of arrival, triage category (an indicator of urgency), age and sex. RESULTS: Rates of access block (for all four definitions) increased between 1999 and 2001 by 1%-2% per year. There were increases across all regions of NSW, but urban regions in particular. Patients presenting to Principal Referral hospitals and those who arrived at night were more likely to experience access block. After adjusting for triage category and year of presentation, the mode of arrival, time of arrival, type of hospital, age and sex were significantly associated with access block. CONCLUSIONS: Access block continues to increase across NSW, whatever the definition used. We recommend that hospitals in NSW and Australia move to the use of one standard definition of access block, as our study suggests there is no significant additional information emerging from the use of multiple definitions.

Ecological and individual predictors of maternal smoking behaviour. Looking beyond individual socioeconomic predictors at the community setting.

The aim of this study is to examine the prevalence of smoking during pregnancy by the individual mother's sociodemographic characteristics and ecological factors at the community level (suburbs). This analysis combined 1996 Australia Census and data on 3424 women attending Well-Baby-Clinics (WBC) between January 1996 and February 1998 within a region in South Western Sydney (SWS), Australia. The prevalence of maternal smoking was 31%. Maternal factors such as marital status, country of birth, education, occupation, socioeconomic status (SES), and types of antenatal care (ANC) were independent risk factors for maternal smoking. Small area analysis revealed suburbs within SWS with high rates of maternal smoking (47-57%). Community level characteristics such as low income, low educational level, young mothers, and unemployment can explain 85.7% of the variation in maternal smoking in SWS. Smoking during pregnancy is recognised as a serious risk factor to the unborn child. The present study draws attention to local community level factors, other than individual SES, which may be important when developing strategies for maternal smoking prevention programs.