Maximizing carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests through optimal management.

Forest carbon sequestration capacity in China remains uncertain due to underrepresented tree demographic dynamics and overlooked of harvest impacts. In this study, we employ a process-based biogeochemical model to make projections by using national forest inventories, covering approximately 415,000 permanent plots, revealing an expansion in biomass carbon stock by 13.6 ± 1.5 Pg C from 2020 to 2100, with additional sink through augmentation of wood product pool (0.6-2.0 Pg C) and spatiotemporal optimization of forest management (2.3 ± 0.03 Pg C). We find that statistical model might cause large bias in long-term projection due to underrepresentation or neglect of wood harvest and forest demographic changes. Remarkably, disregarding the repercussions of harvesting on forest age can result in a premature shift in the timing of the carbon sink peak by 1-3 decades. Our findings emphasize the pressing necessity for the swift implementation of optimal forest management strategies for carbon sequestration enhancement.

Uppermost global tree elevations are primarily limited by low temperature or insufficient moisture.

The impact of anthropogenic global warming has induced significant upward dispersal of trees to higher elevations at alpine treelines. Assessing vertical deviation from current uppermost tree distributions to potential treeline positions is crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to evolving global climate. However, due to data resolution constraints and research scale limitation, comprehending the global pattern of alpine treeline elevations and driving factors remains challenging. This study constructed a comprehensive quasi-observational dataset of uppermost tree distribution across global mountains using Google Earth imagery. Validating the isotherm of mean growing-season air temperature at 6.6 ± 0.3°C as the global indicator of thermal treeline, we found that around two-thirds of uppermost tree distribution records significantly deviated from it. Drought conditions constitute the primary driver in 51% of cases, followed by mountain elevation effect which indicates surface heat (27%). Our analyses underscore the multifaceted determinants of global patterns of alpine treeline, explaining divergent treeline responses to climate warming. Moisture, along with temperature and disturbance, plays the most fundamental roles in understanding global variation of alpine treeline elevation and forecasting alpine treeline response to ongoing global warming.

Importance of soil moisture conservation in mitigating climate change.

A troubling feedback loop, where drier soil contributes to hotter climates, has been widely recognized. This study, drawing on climate model simulations, reveals that maintaining current global soil moisture levels could significantly alleviate 32.9% of land warming under low-emission scenarios. This action could also postpone reaching critical warming thresholds of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C by at least a decade. Crucially, preserving soil moisture at current levels could prevent noticeable climate change impacts across 42% of the Earth's land, a stark deviation from projections suggesting widespread impacts before the 2060s. To combat soil drying, afforestation in mid-to-low latitude regions within the next three decades is proposed as an effective strategy to increase surface water availability. This underscores the substantial potential of nature-based solutions for managing soil moisture, benefiting both climate change mitigation and ecological enhancement.

Four decades of full-scale nitrous oxide emission inventory in China.

China is among the top nitrous oxide (N2O)-emitting countries, but existing national inventories do not provide full-scale emissions including both natural and anthropogenic sources. We conducted a four-decade (1980-2020) of comprehensive quantification of Chinese N2O inventory using empirical emission factor method for anthropogenic sources and two up-to-date process-based models for natural sources. Total N2O emissions peaked at 2287.4 (1774.8-2799.9) Gg N2O yr-1 in 2018, and agriculture-developed regions, like the East, Northeast, and Central, were the top N2O-emitting regions. Agricultural N2O emissions have started to decrease after 2016 due to the decline of nitrogen fertilization applications, while, industrial and energetic sources have been dramatically increasing after 2005. N2O emissions from agriculture, industry, energy, and waste represented 49.3%, 26.4%, 17.5%, and 6.7% of the anthropogenic emissions in 2020, respectively, which revealed that it is imperative to prioritize N2O emission mitigation in agriculture, industry, and energy. Natural N2O sources, dominated by forests, have been steadily growing from 317.3 (290.3-344.1) Gg N2O yr-1 in 1980 to 376.2 (335.5-407.2) Gg N2O yr-1 in 2020. Our study produces a Full-scale Annual N2O dataset in China (FAN2020), providing emergent counting to refine the current national N2O inventories.

Climate-induced tree-mortality pulses are obscured by broad-scale and long-term greening.

Vegetation greening has been suggested to be a dominant trend over recent decades, but severe pulses of tree mortality in forests after droughts and heatwaves have also been extensively reported. These observations raise the question of to what extent the observed severe pulses of tree mortality induced by climate could affect overall vegetation greenness across spatial grains and temporal extents. To address this issue, here we analyse three satellite-based datasets of detrended growing-season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVIGS) with spatial resolutions ranging from 30 m to 8 km for 1,303 field-documented sites experiencing severe drought- or heat-induced tree-mortality events around the globe. We find that severe tree-mortality events have distinctive but localized imprints on vegetation greenness over annual timescales, which are obscured by broad-scale and long-term greening. Specifically, although anomalies in NDVIGS (ΔNDVI) are negative during tree-mortality years, this reduction diminishes at coarser spatial resolutions (that is, 250 m and 8 km). Notably, tree-mortality-induced reductions in NDVIGS (|ΔNDVI|) at 30-m resolution are negatively related to native plant species richness and forest height, whereas topographic heterogeneity is the major factor affecting ΔNDVI differences across various spatial grain sizes. Over time periods of a decade or longer, greening consistently dominates all spatial resolutions. The findings underscore the fundamental importance of spatio-temporal scales for cohesively understanding the effects of climate change on forest productivity and tree mortality under both gradual and abrupt changes.

Slower changes in vegetation phenology than precipitation seasonality in the dry tropics.

The dry tropics occupy ~40% of the tropical land surface and play a dominant role in the trend and interannual variability of the global carbon cycle. Previous studies have reported considerable changes in the dry tropical precipitation seasonality due to climate change, however, the accompanied changes in the length of the vegetation growing season (LGS)-the key period of carbon sequestration-have not been examined. Here, we used long-term satellite observations along with in-situ flux measurements to investigate phenological changes in the dry tropics over the past 40 years. We found that only ~18% of the dry tropics show a significant (p ≤ .1) increasing trend in LGS, while ~13% show a significant decreasing trend. The direction of the LGS change depended not only on the direction of precipitation seasonality change but also on the vegetation water use strategy (i.e. isohydricity) as an adaptation to the long-term average precipitation seasonality (i.e. whether the most of LGS is in the wet season or dry season). Meanwhile, we found that the rate of LGS change was on average ~23% slower than that of precipitation seasonality, caused by a buffering effect from soil moisture. This study uncovers potential mechanisms driving phenological changes in the dry tropics, offering guidance for regional vegetation and carbon cycle studies.

Projected soil carbon loss with warming in constrained Earth system models.

The soil carbon-climate feedback is currently the least constrained component of global warming projections, and the major source of uncertainties stems from a poor understanding of soil carbon turnover processes. Here, we assemble data from long-term temperature-controlled soil incubation studies to show that the arctic and boreal region has the shortest intrinsic soil carbon turnover time while tropical forests have the longest one, and current Earth system models overestimate intrinsic turnover time by 30 percent across active, slow and passive carbon pools. Our constraint suggests that the global soils will switch from carbon sink to source, with a loss of 0.22-0.53 petagrams of carbon per year until the end of this century from strong mitigation to worst emission scenarios, suggesting that global soils will provide a strong positive carbon feedback on warming. Such a reversal of global soil carbon balance would lead to a reduction of 66% and 15% in the current estimated remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming well below 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively, rendering climate mitigation much more difficult.

Diminishing carryover benefits of earlier spring vegetation growth.

Spring vegetation growth can benefit summer growth by increasing foliage area and carbon sequestration potential, or impair it by consuming additional resources needed for sustaining subsequent growth. However, the prevalent driving mechanism and its temporal changes remain unknown. Using satellite observations and long-term atmospheric CO2 records, here we show a weakening trend of the linkage between spring and summer vegetation growth/productivity in the Northern Hemisphere during 1982-2021. This weakening is driven by warmer and more extreme hot weather that becomes unfavourable for peak-season growth, shifting peak plant functioning away from earlier periods. This is further exacerbated by seasonally growing ecosystem water stress due to reduced water supply and enhanced water demand. Our finding suggests that beneficial carryover effects of spring growth on summer growth are diminishing or even reversing, acting as an early warning sign of the ongoing shift of climatic effects from stimulating to suppressing plant photosynthesis during the early to peak seasons.

The carbon budget of China: 1980-2021.

As one of the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gases, China has set itself the ambitious goal of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Therefore, it is crucial to quantify the magnitude and trend of sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and to monitor China's progress toward these goals. Using state-of-the-art datasets and models, this study comprehensively estimated the anthropogenic CO2 emissions from energy, industrial processes and product use, and waste along with natural sources and sinks of CO2 for all of China during 1980-2021. To recognize the differences among various methods of estimating greenhouse emissions, the estimates are compared with China's National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (NGHGIs) for 1994, 2005, 2010, 2012, and 2014. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions in China have increased by 7.39 times from 1980 to 12.77 Gt CO2 a-1 in 2021. While benefiting from ecological projects (e.g., Three Norths Shelter Forest System Project), the land carbon sink in China has reached 1.65 Gt CO2 a-1 averaged through 2010-2021, which is almost 15.81 times that of the carbon sink in the 1980s. On average, China's terrestrial ecosystems offset 14.69% ± 2.49% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions through 2010-2021. Two provincial-level administrative regions of China, Xizang and Qinghai, have achieved carbon neutrality according to our estimates, but nearly half of the administrative regions of China have terrestrial carbon sink offsets of less than 10% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This study indicated a high level of consistency between NGHGIs and various datasets used for estimating fossil CO2 emissions, but found notable differences for land carbon sinks. Future estimates of the terrestrial carbon sinks of NGHGIs urgently need to be verified with process-based models which integrate the comprehensive carbon cycle processes.

A meta-analysis highlights globally widespread potassium limitation in terrestrial ecosystems.

Potassium (K+ ) is the most abundant inorganic cation in plant cells, playing a critical role in various plant functions. However, the impacts of K on natural terrestrial ecosystems have been less studied compared with nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). Here, we present a global meta-analysis aimed at quantifying the response of aboveground production to K addition. This analysis is based on 144 field K fertilization experiments. We also investigate the influences of climate, soil properties, ecosystem types, and fertilizer regimes on the responses of aboveground production. We find that: K addition significantly increases aboveground production by 12.3% (95% CI: 7.4-17.5%), suggesting a widespread occurrence of K limitation across terrestrial ecosystems; K limitation is more prominent in regions with humid climates, acidic soils, or weathered soils; the effect size of K addition varies among climate zones/regions, and is influenced by multiple factors; and previous N : K and K : P thresholds utilized to detect K limitation in wetlands cannot be applied to other biomes. Our findings emphasize the role of K in limiting terrestrial productivity, which should be integrated into future terrestrial ecosystems models.

Benzenepoly(carboxylic acid)s as Exclusive Intrinsic Markers to Assess Riverine Export of Dissolved Black Carbon.

Landscape fires annually generate large quantities of black carbon. The water-soluble fraction of black carbon (i.e., dissolved black carbon/DBC) is an important constituent of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) pool, playing a crucial role in the global budget of refractory carbon and climate change. A key challenge in constraining the flux and fate of riverine DBC is to develop targeted and accurate quantification methods. Herein, we report that benzenepentacarboxylic acid (B5CA) intrinsically present in DBC can be used as an exclusive and holistic marker (representing both condensed aromatics and less-/nonaromatic fractions) for DBC quantification. B5CA was universally detected in water extractions of biochar and fire-affected soils with relatively large abundance but not produced by nonthermogenic processes. It has good mobility in the environment as it is not readily precipitated by cations or adsorbed by common geosorbents. B5CA also represents the recalcitrant components of DBC with excellent stability against photodegradation and biodegradation. Applying B5CA as the DBC marker in surface waters of the Changjiang River (i.e., the third largest river in the world), we calculate the DBC concentration in the downstream Changjiang River to be 4.8 ± 5.5% of the DOC flux. Our work provides a simple and reliable approach for the accurate quantification and source tracking of DBC in the soil and aquatic carbon pools.

Resonance between projected Tibetan Plateau surface darkening and Arctic climate change.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts a profound influence on global climate over million-year timescales due to its past uplift. However, whether the ongoing climate changes over the TP, particularly the persistent reduction in its local albedo (referred to as "TP surface darkening"), can exert global impacts remains elusive. In this study, a state-of-the-art coupled land-atmosphere global climate model has been employed to scrutinize the impact of TP darkening on polar climate changes. Results indicate that the projected TP darkening has the potential to generate a stationary Rossby wave train, thereby modulating the atmospheric circulation in the high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and instigating a dipole-like surface air temperature anomaly pattern around the Arctic region. An additional experiment suggests that the projected Arctic warming may in return warm the TP, thus forming a bi-directional linkage between these two climate systems. Given their association with vast ice reservoirs, the elucidation of this mechanism in our study is crucial in advancing our comprehension of Earth system climate projections.

Forestation at the right time with the right species can generate persistent carbon benefits in China.

Previous evaluations on the biophysical potential of forest carbon sink have focused on forestation area distribution and the associated carbon stock for equilibrium-state forests after centuries-long growth. These approaches, however, have limited relevance for climate policies because they ignore the near-term and mid-term decadal carbon uptake dynamics and suitable forest species for forestation. This study developed a forestation roadmap to support China's "carbon neutrality" objective in 2060 by addressing three key questions of forestation: where, with what forest species, and when to afforest. The results yielded a high-confidence potential forestation map for China at a resolution of 1 km with the identified optimal native forest type or species. Our analysis revealed an additional 78 Mha suitable for forestation up to the 2060s, a 43% increase on the current forest area. Selecting forest species for maximal carbon stock in addition to maximizing local environmental suitability enabled almost a doubling in forest carbon sink potential. Progressive forestation of this area can fix a considerable amount of CO2 and compensate for the carbon sink decline in existing forests. Altogether, the entire forest ecosystem can support a persistent biophysical carbon sink potential of 0.4 Pg C y-1 by 2060 and 0.2 Pg C y-1 by 2100, offsetting 7 to 14% of the current national fossil CO2 emissions. Our research provides an example of building a forestation roadmap toward a sustained forest carbon sink, which creates a critical time window for the emission cuts required by the goal of carbon neutrality.

An early warning signal for grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Intense grazing may lead to grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, but it is difficult to predict where this will occur and to quantify it. Based on a process-based ecosystem model, we define a productivity-based stocking rate threshold that induces extreme grassland degradation to assess whether and where the current grazing activity in the region is sustainable. We find that the current stocking rate is below the threshold in ~80% of grassland areas, but in 55% of these grasslands the stocking rate exceeds half the threshold. According to our model projections, positive effects of climate change including elevated CO2 can partly offset negative effects of grazing across nearly 70% of grasslands on the Plateau, but only in areas below the stocking rate threshold. Our analysis suggests that stocking rate that does not exceed 60% (within 50% to 70%) of the threshold may balance human demands with grassland protection in the face of climate change.

Warming-induced phenological mismatch between trees and shrubs explains high-elevation forest expansion.

Despite the importance of species interaction in modulating the range shifts of plants, little is known about the responses of coexisting life forms to a warmer climate. Here, we combine long-term monitoring of cambial phenology in sympatric trees and shrubs at two treelines of the Tibetan Plateau, with a meta-analysis of ring-width series from 344 shrubs and 575 trees paired across 11 alpine treelines in the Northern Hemisphere. Under a spring warming of +1°C, xylem resumption advances by 2-4 days in trees, but delays by 3-8 days in shrubs. The divergent phenological response to warming was due to shrubs being 3.2 times more sensitive than trees to chilling accumulation. Warmer winters increased the thermal requirement for cambial reactivation in shrubs, leading to a delayed response to warmer springs. Our meta-analysis confirmed such a mechanism across continental scales. The warming-induced phenological mismatch may give a competitive advantage to trees over shrubs, which would provide a new explanation for increasing alpine treeline shifts under the context of climate change.

Soil moisture-atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming.

Soil moisture-atmosphere coupling (SA) amplifies greenhouse gas-driven global warming via changes in surface heat balance. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project projects an acceleration in SA-driven warming due to the 'warmer climate - drier soil' feedback, which continuously warms the globe and thereby exerts an acceleration effect on global warming. The projection shows that SA-driven warming exceeds 0.5 °C over extratropical landmasses by the end of the 21st Century. The likelihood of extreme high temperatures will additionally increase by about 10% over the entire globe (excluding Antarctica) and more than 30% over large parts of North America and Europe under the high-emission scenario. This demonstrates the high sensitivity of SA to climate change, in which SA can exceed the natural range of climate variability and play a non-linear warming component role on the globe.

Vegetation structural shift tells environmental changes on the Tibetan Plateau over 40 years.

Structural information of grassland changes on the Tibetan Plateau is essential for understanding alterations in critical ecosystem functioning and their underlying drivers that may reflect environmental changes. However, such information at the regional scale is still lacking due to methodological limitations. Beyond remote sensing indicators only recognizing vegetation productivity, we utilized multivariate data fusion and deep learning to characterize formation-based plant community structure in alpine grasslands at the regional scale of the Tibetan Plateau for the first time and compared it with the earlier version of Vegetation Map of China for historical changes. Over the past 40 years, we revealed that (1) the proportion of alpine meadows in alpine grasslands increased from 50% to 69%, well-reflecting the warming and wetting trend; (2) dominances of Kobresia pygmaea and Stipa purpurea formations in alpine meadows and steppes were strengthened to 76% and 92%, respectively; (3) the climate factor mainly drove the distribution of Stipa purpurea formation, but not the recent distribution of Kobresia pygmaea formation that was likely shaped by human activities. Therefore, the underlying mechanisms of grassland changes over the past 40 years were considered to be formation dependent. Overall, the first exploration for structural information of plant community changes in this study not only provides a new perspective to understand drivers of grassland changes and their spatial heterogeneity at the regional scale of the Tibetan Plateau, but also innovates large-scale vegetation study paradigm.

Climate change drives rapid warming and increasing heatwaves of lakes.

Climate change could seriously threaten global lake ecosystems by warming lake surface water and increasing the occurrence of lake heatwaves. Yet, there are great uncertainties in quantifying lake temperature changes globally due to a lack of accurate large-scale model simulations. Here, we integrated satellite observations and a numerical model to improve lake temperature modeling and explore the multifaceted characteristics of trends in surface temperatures and lake heatwave occurrence in Chinese lakes from 1980 to 2100. Our model-data integration approach revealed that the lake surface waters have warmed at a rate of 0.11 °C 10a-1 during the period 1980-2021, being only half of the pure model-based estimate. Moreover, our analysis suggested that an asymmetric seasonal warming rate has led to a reduced temperature seasonality in eastern plain lakes but an amplified one in alpine lakes. The durations of lake heatwaves have also increased at a rate of 7.7 d 10a-1. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, lake surface temperature and lake heatwave duration were projected to increase by 2.2 °C and 197 d at the end of the 21st century, respectively. Such drastic changes would worsen the environmental conditions of lakes subjected to high and increasing anthropogenic pressures, posing great threats to aquatic biodiversity and human health.