ABO blood group does not influence Child-Pugh A cirrhosis outcome: An observational study from CIRRAL and ANRS CO12 CIRVIR cohorts.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Non-O blood group promotes deep vein thrombosis and liver fibrosis in both general population and hepatitis C. We aimed to evaluate the influence of Non-O group on the outcome of Child-Pugh A cirrhotic patients. METHODS: We used two prospective cohorts of Child-Pugh A cirrhosis due to either alcohol or viral hepatitis. Primary end point was the cumulated incidence of 'Decompensation' at 3 years, defined as the occurrence of ascites , hydrothorax, encephalopathy, gastrointestinal bleeding related to portal hypertension, or bilirubin >45 µmol/L. Secondary end points were the cumulated incidences of (1) 'Disease Progression' including a « decompensation¼ or « the occurrence of one or more parameters ¼ among: prothrombin time (PT) <45%, albumin <28 g/L, Child-Pugh worsening (B or C vs A or B, C vs B), hepatorenal syndrome, and hepato-pulmonary syndrome, (2) other events such as non-malignant portal vein thrombosis (nmPVT), and (3) overall survival. RESULTS: Patients (n = 1789; 59.9% Non-O group; 40.1% group O) were followed during a median of 65.4 months. At 3 years cumulated incidence of Decompensation was 8.3% in Non-O group and 7.2% in group O (P = .27). Cumulated incidence of Disease Progression was 20.7% in Non-O group and 18.9% in group O (P = .26). Cumulated incidence of nmPVT was 2.7% in Non-O group and 2.8% in group O (P = .05). At 3 years overall survival was 92.4% in Non-O group and 93.4% in group O (P = 1). CONCLUSION: Non-O group does not influence disease outcome in Child-Pugh A cirrhotic patients. Clinicals trial number NCT03342170.

Personalized surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis - using machine learning adapted to HCV status.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Refining hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance programs requires improved individual risk prediction. Thus, we aimed to develop algorithms based on machine learning approaches to predict the risk of HCC more accurately in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, according to their virological status. METHODS: Patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-related cirrhosis from the French ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort were included in a semi-annual HCC surveillance program. Three prognostic models for HCC occurrence were built, using (i) Fine-Gray regression as a benchmark, (ii) single decision tree (DT), and (iii) random survival forest for competing risks survival (RSF). Model performance was evaluated from C-indexes validated externally in the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort (n = 668 enrolled between 08/2012-01/2014). RESULTS: Out of 836 patients analyzed, 156 (19%) developed HCC and 434 (52%) achieved sustained virological response (SVR) (median follow-up 63 months). Fine-Gray regression models identified 6 independent predictors of HCC occurrence in patients before SVR (past excessive alcohol intake, genotype 1, elevated AFP and GGT, low platelet count and albuminemia) and 3 in patients after SVR (elevated AST, low platelet count and shorter prothrombin time). DT analysis confirmed these associations but revealed more complex interactions, yielding 8 patient groups with varying cancer risks and predictors depending on SVR achievement. On RSF analysis, the most important predictors of HCC varied by SVR status (non-SVR: platelet count, GGT, AFP and albuminemia; SVR: prothrombin time, ALT, age and platelet count). Externally validated C-indexes before/after SVR were 0.64/0.64 [Fine-Gray], 0.60/62 [DT] and 0.71/0.70 [RSF]. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for hepatocarcinogenesis differ according to SVR status. Machine learning algorithms can refine HCC risk assessment by revealing complex interactions between cancer predictors. Such approaches could be used to develop more cost-effective tailored surveillance programs. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with HCV-related cirrhosis must be included in liver cancer surveillance programs, which rely on ultrasound examination every 6 months. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening is hampered by sensitivity issues, leading to late cancer diagnoses in a substantial number of patients. Refining surveillance periodicity and modality using more sophisticated imaging techniques such as MRI may only be cost-effective in patients with the highest HCC incidence. Herein, we demonstrate how machine learning algorithms (i.e. data-driven mathematical models to make predictions or decisions), can refine individualized risk prediction.

Effects of Age on Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis C with Direct Acting Antivirals.

INTRODUCTION AND AIM: Data on the efficacy and tolerance of interferon-free treatment in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) in elderly patients are limited in phase II-III trials. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A prospective cohort of adult patients with CHC treated in French general hospitals. RESULTS: Data from 1,123 patients, distributed into four age groups, were analyzed. Of these, 278 were > 64 years old (fourth quartile) and 133 were > 73 years old (tenth decile). Elderly patients weighed less, were more frequently treatment-experienced women infected with genotype 1b or 2, while they less frequently had genotype 3 or HIV coinfection, but had more frequent comorbidities and drug consumption. Half of the patients had cirrhosis, whatever their ages. The main treatment regimens were sofosbuvir/ledipasvir (37.8%), sofosbuvir/daclatasvir (31.8%), sofosbuvir/simeprevir (16.9%), sofosbuvir/ribavirin (7.8%); ribavirin was given to 24% of patients. The overall sustained virological response (SVR) rate was 91.0 % (95% CI: 89.292.5%) with no difference according to age. Logistic regression of the independent predictors of SVR were albumin, hepatocellular carcinoma and treatment regimen, but not age. The rate of severe adverse events (66 in 59/1062 [5.6%] patients) tended to be greater in patients older than 64 years of age (21/261,8.1%), but the only independent predictors of SAE by logistic regression were cirrhosis and baseline hemoglobin. Patient-reported overall tolerance was excellent in all age groups, and patient-reported fatigue decreased during and after treatment, independent of age. CONCLUSIONS: The high efficacy and tolerance of interferon-free regimens is confirmed in elderly patients in real-life conditions.

Hepatitis C treatment with all-oral direct-acting antivirals: Effectiveness and tolerance in a multicenter, prospective, observational study from French general hospitals (APROVVIE, ANGH).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: According to clinical trials, the treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) with second-generation direct acting antiviral agents (DAAs) is highly efficient and well tolerated. The goal of this study was to investigate the effectiveness and safety of various combinations of these drugs during their first 2 years of use in the real-world practice of French general hospitals. METHODS: Data from patients treated with all-oral DAAs in 24 French non-academic hospital centers from March 1, 2014 to January 1, 2016, were prospectively recorded. The sustained virological response 12-24 weeks after treatment (SVR 12-24) was estimated and severe adverse events (SAE) were evaluated and their predictive factors were determined using logistic regression. RESULTS: Data from 1123 patients were analyzed. The population was 69% genotype (G) 1, 13% G3, 11.5% G4, 5% G2, 49% with cirrhosis and 55% treatment-experienced. The treatment regimens were sofosbuvir/ledipasvir (38%), sofosbuvir/daclatasvir (32%), sofosbuvir/simeprevir (17%), ombitasvir+paritaprevir+ritonavir (5%) (with dasabuvir 3.5%), and sofosbuvir/ribavirin (8%). Ribavirin was given to 24% of patients. The SVR 12-24 was 91.0% (95% CI: 89.2-92.5%). Sofosbuvir-ribavirin was less effective than other regimens. The independent predictors of SVR 12-24 by logistic regression were body weight, albumin, previous hepatocellular carcinoma and treatment regimen (sofosbuvir/ribavirin vs. others). Sixty-four severe adverse events (SAE) were observed in 59 [5.6%] patients, and were independently predicted by cirrhosis and baseline hemoglobin. Serum creatinine increased during treatment (mean 8.5%, [P<10-5]), satisfying criteria for acute kidney injury in 62 patients (7.3%). Patient-reported overall tolerance was excellent, and patient-reported fatigue decreased during and after treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Second generation DAAs combinations are as effective and well tolerated in a « real-world ¼ population as in clinical trials. Further studies are needed on renal tolerance.

Validation of Baveno VI Criteria for Screening and Surveillance of Esophageal Varices in Patients With Compensated Cirrhosis and a Sustained Response to Antiviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Management of patients with cirrhosis includes endoscopic screening and surveillance to detect esophageal varices (EV) and prevent bleeding. However, the Baveno VI guidelines recommend avoiding endoscopies for patients with liver stiffness measurements below 20 kPa and platelet counts above 150,000 (favorable Baveno VI status) and endoscopic assessment of patients with higher levels of liver stiffness and platelet counts (unfavorable Baveno VI status). We aimed to validate the Baveno VI guidelines, evaluating outcomes of patients in the ANRS-CO12 CirVir cohort with compensated cirrhosis associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, with or without a sustained response to antiviral therapy. METHODS: We performed an ancillary study using data from 891 patients in the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, treated at 35 centers in France, with HCV or HBV infection and biopsy-proven cirrhosis, Child-Pugh A scores, no previous complications, and no hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent an endoscopic procedure and had interpretable liver stiffness measurements and platelet counts. Progression of portal hypertension (PHT) was defined as the onset of varices needing treatment (VNT) or PHT-related bleeding. An sustained response to antiviral therapy was defined as undetectable level of HCV RNA by polymerase chain reaction assay (<50 IU/mL) 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR) or an undetectable level of HBV DNA. The primary aims were to validate the Baveno VI guidelines for screening and surveillance of EV in patients with compensated cirrhosis and to study the effects of an SVR on the progression of PHT. RESULTS: A total of 200 patients achieved an SVR (22.4%) (94 patients with HCV infection, 98 patients with HBV infection, and 8 patients with both); 80 of these patients had favorable Baveno VI status and none had VNT. Progression of PHT was studied in 548 patients; during a follow-up period of 61.2 months (interquartile range, 39.5-80.6 months), 105 of these patients (19.1%) had progression of PHT. Lack of an SVR and grade 1 EV were independently associated with progression of PHT. At the time of PHT progression, all patients had unfavorable Baveno VI status. Achieving favorable Baveno VI status after an SVR was associated with the absence of PHT progression. Favorable Baveno VI status and SVR were independently associated with survival. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from a large cohort of patients with HBV- or HCV-associated cirrhosis in France, we validated the Baveno VI guidelines on screening and surveillance of PHT, even for patients who achieved a sustained response to antiviral therapy.

Non-virological factors are drivers of hepatocellular carcinoma in virosuppressed hepatitis B cirrhosis: Results of ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort.

Worldwide, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurs mainly in Asian patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. This study aimed to decipher the environmental and virological factors associated with HCC occurrence and validate risk scoring systems in a French multicentre prospective cohort of HBV cirrhotic patients. Patients with biopsy-proven Child-Pugh A viral cirrhosis included in the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort who were HBsAg(+) without hepatitis C coinfection were selected for: (a) interview through a standardized questionnaire reporting coffee consumption and HCC familial history; (b) HBsAg quantification using baseline and sequential 2-year frozen sera; (c) baseline HBV genotype determination; and (d) assessment of risk factors and applicability of HCC risk scores (Kaplan-Meier analysis, Cox models). Among 317 patients studied (261 men, median age 53 years, past or ongoing antiviral treatment 93.3% and baseline detectable HBV DNA in 88 patients), the baseline and 2-year median HBsAg levels were 810 and 463 IU/mL, respectively. After a median follow-up of 65.2 months, 27 HCC cases were diagnosed (annual incidence: 1.6%). Three factors were independently associated with HCC occurrence: age > 50 years, platelets ≤ 150 × 103 /mm3 and body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2 . Two out of five risk scores were validated, and the most accurate was PAGE-B at 1 year. Moreover, HCC in patients without maintained virological suppression seems more aggressive and less accessible to curative treatment. In conclusion, in French patients with HBV cirrhosis mostly virally suppressed, independent HCC risk factors were host-related (age, obesity) or linked to the severity of cirrhosis (thrombopenia), and the European PAGE-B score was the most accurate risk score.

Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Direct Antiviral Therapy for HCV in Patients With Cirrhosis Included in Surveillance Programs.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Retrospective studies have found an unexpectedly high incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated cirrhosis who received direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents. We analyzed data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort to compare the incidence of HCC in patients with cirrhosis who received DAA therapy vs patients treated with interferon (IFN). METHODS: Data were collected from 1270 patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-associated cirrhosis recruited from 2006 through 2012 at 35 centers in France. For descriptive purpose, patients were classified as follows: patients who received DAA treatment (DAA group, n = 336), patients who achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR) following an IFN-based regimen (SVR-IFN group, n = 495), or patients who never received DAA treatment and never had an SVR following IFN therapy (non-SVR group, n = 439). The patients were included in HCC surveillance programs based on ultrasound examination every 6 months, and clinical and biological data were recorded. To account for confounding by indication due to differences in patient characteristics at treatment initiation, we constructed a time-dependent Cox regression model weighted by the inverse probability of treatment and censoring (IPTCW) to assess the treatment effects of DAA on time until HCC. RESULTS: Compared with patients in the SVR-IFN group, patients in the DAA group were older, higher proportions had diabetes or portal hypertension, and liver function was more severely impaired. The crude 3-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 5.9% in the DAA group, 3.1% in the SVR-IFN group, and 12.7% in the non-SVR group (overall P < .001; unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] for HCC 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-3.84; P = .030 for the DAA group vs the SVR-IFN group). HCC characteristics were similar among groups. Among patients with HCC, the DAA group received less-frequent HCC screening than the other 2 groups (P = .002). After Cox analyses weighted by the IPTCW, we found no statistically significant increase in risk of HCC associated with DAA use (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.46-1.73; P = .73). CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort reveals that the apparent increase in HCC incidence observed in patients with cirrhosis treated with DAAs compared with patients who achieved SVR following an IFN therapy can be explained by patient characteristics (age, diabetes, reduced liver function) and lower screening intensity.

Compliance With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance Guidelines Associated With Increased Lead-Time Adjusted Survival of Patients With Compensated Viral Cirrhosis: A Multi-Center Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Semi-annual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended for patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to determine how compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines affects survival times of patients with hepatitis C virus- or hepatitis B virus-associated compensated cirrhosis who developed HCC. METHODS: We collected data from the prospective ANRS CO12 CirVir study, from March 2006 through June 2012, on 1671 patients with biopsy-proven viral cirrhosis and no previous liver complications who were undergoing surveillance for HCC at 35 centers in France. Only 216 patients who developed HCC during the follow-up period were included in the analysis. Patients were considered to be compliant with surveillance guidelines if the time between their last surveillance image evaluation and diagnosis of HCC were fewer than 7 months and noncompliant if this time was 7 months or longer. RESULTS: HCC was detected in 216 patients, at a median follow-up time of 59.7 months. Of these patients, 140 (80.5%) were Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A, 135 (69.9%) received first-line curative treatment (15 underwent transplantation, 29 underwent resection, 89 received percutaneous ablation, and 2 received resection and percutaneous ablation), and 129 (60.0%) were compliant with surveillance guidelines. Seventy-nine of the patients with HCC died; 49 deaths were associated with tumor progression. After lead-time adjustment, overall survival (OS) time was longer in patients compliant with surveillance guidelines (median OS time, 53.2 months) than noncompliant patients (median OS time, 25.4 months) (P = .0107); this difference remained significant even when we changed lead time assumptions. In multivariate analysis adjusted for a propensity score, compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines was associated with low tumor burden, allocation of curative treatment, and increased OS time compared with noncompliance (hazard ratio for OS, 2.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-4.14; P = .0150). CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, we associated compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines (fewer than 7 months between image evaluations) with early diagnosis, allocation of curative treatment, and longer adjusted OS of patients with hepatitis C virus- or hepatitis B virus-associated compensated cirrhosis and a diagnosis of HCC.

Extrahepatic cancers are the leading cause of death in patients achieving hepatitis B virus control or hepatitis C virus eradication.

Data on extrahepatic cancers (EHCs) in compensated viral cirrhosis are limited. The objective of the prospective multicenter Agence Nationale de Recherche sur le SIDA et les Hépatites virales CO12 CirVir cohort was to assess the occurrence of all clinical events in patients with compensated viral cirrhosis, including all types of cancer. Patients with the following inclusion criteria were enrolled in 35 French centers: (1) biopsy-proven hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis, (2) Child-Pugh A, or (3) absence of previous liver complications including primary liver cancer (PLC). Patients were followed up prospectively every 6 months. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated according to age and gender using 5-year periods. The impact of sustained viral response (SVR) in HCV patients and maintained viral suppression in HBV patients were assessed using time-dependent analysis. A total of 1,671 patients were enrolled between 2006 and 2012 (median age, 54.9 years; men, 67.3%; HCV, 1,323; HBV, 317; HCV-HBV, 31). Metabolic features and excessive alcohol and tobacco consumption were recorded in 15.2%, 36.4%, and 56.4% of cases, respectively. After a median follow-up of 59.7 months, 227 PLCs were diagnosed (5-year cumulative incidence [CumI] 13.4%) and 93 patients developed EHC (14 patients with lymphoid or related tissue cancer and 79 with solid tissue cancer; 5-year EHC CumI, 5.9%). Compared to the general French population, patients were younger at cancer diagnosis, with significantly higher risk of EHC in HCV patients (SMR, 1.31; 95 confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.64; P = 0.017) and after SVR (SMR = 1.57; 95% CI, 1.08-2.22; P = 0.013). EHC was the fourth leading cause of death in the whole cohort and the first in patients with viral control/eradication. CONCLUSION: Compared to the general French population, HCV cirrhosis is associated with a higher risk of EHC and the first cause of death in patients with viral cirrhosis who achieve virological control/eradication. (Hepatology 2018).

Prognostic value of viral eradication for major adverse cardiovascular events in hepatitis C cirrhotic patients.

BACKGROUND: The objective was to examine the role of a sustained virological response (SVR) on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis. METHODS: Patients with the following criteria were enrolled in 35 French centers: (1) biopsy-proven HCV cirrhosis; (2) Child-Pugh A; (3) positive viremia; and (4) no prior liver complication, and then prospectively followed. All patients received HCV treatment after inclusion. MACEs included stroke, myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease, cardiac arrest, and cardiovascular death. SVR, defined as negative viremia 12 weeks posttreatment, was considered as a time-dependent covariate, and its effect on MACE occurrence was assessed. The median follow up was 57.5 months, ending in December 2015. RESULTS: Sixty-two of 878 (7.1%) patients presented a total of 79 MACEs. The main predictive baseline factors of MACEs were Asian ethnic origin, history of MACEs, arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, current smoking, low serum albumin level, high total bilirubin level, and low platelet count. In multivariate analysis, SVR was associated with a decreased risk of MACEs (hazard ratio=0.35, 95% CI 0.09-0.97, P=.044), whereas Asian ethnic origin, arterial hypertension, smoking, and low serum albumin level remained predictive of MACE occurrence. The 5-year survival rate was 60.1% versus 87.5% in patients who did versus those who did not present a MACE (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with compensated HCV-related cirrhosis, Asian ethnic origin, arterial hypertension, smoking, and low serum albumin are independent predictive factors of cardiovascular events, whereas an SVR is associated with a decreased rate of cardiovascular events.

Bacterial infection in compensated viral cirrhosis impairs 5-year survival (ANRS CO12 CirVir prospective cohort).

OBJECTIVE: To assess incidence and prognostic significance of bacterial infections (BIs) occurring in compensated viral cirrhosis. DESIGN: This prospective study involved 35 French centres. Inclusion criteria were biopsy-proven HCV or HBV cirrhosis, Child-Pugh A and no previous hepatic complications. Cumulative incidence (CumI) of events was estimated in a competing risks framework. RESULTS: 1672 patients were enrolled (HCV 1323, HBV 318, HCV-HBV 31). During a median follow-up of 43 months, 234 BIs occurred in 171 patients (5 year CumI: 12.9%), among whom 14.6% had septic shock. Main localisations included the urinary tract (27.4%), lung (25.2%) and peritoneum (10.7%) (other, 86 (36.7%)). Most BIs occurred as a first event prior to liver decompensation (n=140, 81.8%) and were community-acquired (CA, 84.2%). The risk of BI was higher in patients with HCV than in patients with HBV (5 year CumI: 15.2% vs 5.5%, p=0.0008). Digestive localisation, concomitant interferon-based treatment, isolation of resistant bacteria and non-CA BIs were associated with lowest probability of resolution. The occurrence of a first BI impaired survival in patients infected with HCV (5 year survival: 60.2% vs 90.4%, p<0.001) and patients infected with HBV (5 year survival: 69.2% vs 97.6%, p<0.001). BIs represented the third cause of death (14.1%) after liver failure and liver cancer. BI risk factors comprised older age, lower albumin, proton pump inhibitor intake and absence of virological eradication/control. CONCLUSION: BI mostly occurs as a first complication and represents a turning point in the course of compensated viral cirrhosis. Its occurrence impacts long-term prognosis and may define a subgroup of patients in whom adaptation of management is warranted.

Eradication of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Patients With Cirrhosis Reduces Risk of Liver and Non-Liver Complications.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We performed a prospective study to investigate the effects of a sustained viral response (SVR) on outcomes of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and compensated cirrhosis. METHODS: We collected data from 1323 patients included in the prospective Agence Nationale pour la Recherche sur le SIDA et les hépatites virales (ANRS) viral cirrhosis (CirVir) cohort, recruited from 35 clinical centers in France from 2006 through 2012. All patients had HCV infection and biopsy-proven cirrhosis, were Child-Pugh class A, and had no prior liver complications. All patients received anti-HCV treatment before or after inclusion (with interferon then with direct antiviral agents) and underwent an ultrasound examination every 6 months, as well as endoscopic evaluations. SVR was considered as a time-dependent covariate; its effect on outcome was assessed by the Cox proportional hazard regression method. We used a propensity score to minimize confounding by indication of treatment and capacity to achieve SVR. RESULTS: After a median follow-up period of 58.2 months, 668 patients (50.5%) achieved SVR. SVR was associated with a decreased incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (hazard ratio [HR] compared with patients without an SVR, 0.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19-0.43; P < .001) and hepatic decompensation (HR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.17-0.39; P < .001). Patients with SVRs also had a lower risk of cardiovascular events (HR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.25-0.69; P = .001) and bacterial infections (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.29-0.68; P < .001). Metabolic features were associated with a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with SVRs, but not in patients with viremia. SVR affected overall mortality (HR, 0.27 compared with patients without SVR; 95% CI, 0.18-0.42; P < .001) and death from liver-related and non-liver-related causes. Similar results were obtained in a propensity score-matched population. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed a reduction in critical events, liver-related or not, in a prospective study of patients with HCV infection and compensated cirrhosis included in the CirVir cohort who achieved an SVR. We found an SVR to reduce overall mortality and risk of death from liver-related and non-liver-related causes. A longer follow-up evaluation is required to accurately describe and assess specific risk factors for complications in this population.

Nomogram for individualized prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in hepatitis C virus cirrhosis (ANRS CO12 CirVir).

UNLABELLED: The aim of this work was to develop an individualized score for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis C (HCV)-compensated cirrhosis. Among 1,323 patients with HCV cirrhosis enrolled in the French prospective ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, 720 and 360 were randomly assigned to training and validation sets, respectively. Cox's multivariate model was used to predict HCC, after which a nomogram was computed to assess individualized risk. During follow-up (median, 51.0 months), 103 and 39 patients developed HCC in the training and validation sets, respectively. Five variables were independently associated with occurrence of HCC: age > 50 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16; 3.25; P = 0.012); past excessive alcohol intake (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.02; 2.36; P = 0.041); low platelet count (<100 Giga/mm(3) : HR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.62; 4.51; P < 0.001; [100; 150] Giga/mm(3) : HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.10; 3.18; P = 0.021); gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase above the upper limit of normal (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.11; 3.47; P = 0.021); and absence of a sustained virological response during follow-up (HR, 3.02; 95% CI, 1.67; 5.48; P < 0.001). An 11-point risk score was derived from the training cohort and validated in the validation set. Based on this score, the population was stratified into three groups, in which HCC development gradually increased, from 0% to 30.1% at 5 years for patients with the lowest (≤3) and highest (≥8) scores (P < 0.001). Using this score, a nomogram was built enabling individualized prediction of HCC occurrence at 1, 3, and 5 years. CONCLUSION: This HCC score can accurately predict HCC at an individual level in French patients with HCV cirrhosis. (Hepatology 2016;64:1136-1147).

Subjective parameters markedly limit the referral of transplantation candidates to liver transplant centres.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Equality of access to organ transplantation is a mandatory public health requirement. Referral from a local to a university hospital and then registration on the national waiting list are the two key steps enabling access to liver transplantation (LT). Although the latter procedure is well defined using the Model for End-stage Liver Disease score that improves equality of access, the former is mostly reliant on the practices of referring physicians. The aim of this study was to clarify the factors determining this initial step. METHODS: This observational study included consecutive inpatients with cirrhosis of whatever origin in a cohort constituted between 2003 and 2008, using medical records and structured questionnaires concerning patient characteristics and the opinions of hospital clinicians. Candidates for LT were defined in line with these opinions. RESULTS: Four hundred and thirty-three patients, mostly affected by alcoholic cirrhosis, were included, 21.0% of whom were considered to be candidates for LT. Factors independently associated with their candidature were: physician empathy [odds ratio (OR) = 10.8; 95% CI: 4.0-29.5], adherence to treatment (OR = 16.6; 95% CI: 3.7-75.2), geographical area (OR = 6.8; 95% CI: 2.2-21.3) and the patient's physiological age (OR = 2.3; 95% CI: 1.1-4.7). CONCLUSIONS: Several subjective markers restrict the referral of patients from local hospitals to liver transplant centres. Their advancement to this second step is thus markedly weakened by initial subjectivity. The development of objective guidelines for local hospital physicians to assist them with their initial decision-making on LT is now necessary.

Complications and competing risks of death in compensated viral cirrhosis (ANRS CO12 CirVir prospective cohort).

UNLABELLED: Various critical events, liver related or not, occur in patients with compensated cirrhosis, but their respective burden remains to be prospectively assessed. The aim of this prospective cohort study involving 35 French centers was to capture the whole spectrum of complications occurring in compensated viral cirrhosis (VC) using competing risks analyses. Inclusion criteria were: histologically proven cirrhosis resulting from hepatitis C virus (HCV) or hepatitis B virus (HBV); Child-Pugh A; and no previous hepatic complications. The cohort was considered as a multistate disease model, cumulative incidences (CumIs) of events were estimated in a competing risks framework. A total of 1,654 patients were enrolled from 2006 to 2012 (HCV, 1,308; HBV, 315; HCV-HBV, 31). During a median follow-up of 34 months, at least one liver nodule was detected in 271 patients, confirmed as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in 128 (4-year cumI: 10.5%) and cholangiocarcinoma in 3. HCC incidence was higher in HCV (4-year cumI: 11.4% vs. 7.4%; P = 0.05). HCC fulfilled Milan criteria in 79.3%, leading to curative treatment in 70.4%. Liver decompensation occurred more frequently in HCV patients (4-year cumI: 10.8% vs. 3.6%; P = 0.0004). Virological eradication/control was achieved in 34.1% of HCV and 88.6% of HBV patients and was associated with a marked decrease in HCC, decompensation, and bacterial infection incidences. Survival was shorter in HCV patients (4-year cumI: 91.6% vs. 97.2%; P = 0.0002). Death (n = 102; missing data: 6) was attributed to liver disease in 48 (47%; liver cancer: n = 18; miscellaneous, n = 30) and extrahepatic causes in 48 (47%; bacterial infection: n = 13; extrahepatic cancers: n = 10; cardiovascular events: n = 5; miscellaneous, n = 20). CONCLUSION: After 3 years of follow-up, extrahepatic events still explained half of deaths in patients with compensated VC. A strong decrease in complications was linked to virological eradication/control.

Low incidence of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in asymptomatic cirrhotic outpatients.

AIM: To compare the incidence of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in cirrhotic outpatients and inpatients undergoing therapeutic paracentesis METHODS: From January 1 to May 31, 2004, 1041 patients from 70 different hospitals underwent 2123 therapeutic abdominal paracentesis (AP) performed as a outpatient procedure in 355 and as inpatient procedure in 686 cases respectively. The following parameters were compared prospectively between outpatients and inpatients: spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) prevalence, age, gender, cause of cirrhosis, symptoms, score and grade according to Child-Pugh classification, cirrhosis complications, antibiotics treatment, serum creatinine, platelet count and ascitic protein concentration. RESULTS: SBP was observed in 91 patients. In the whole population the SBP prevalence was 8.7% (95%CI: 7.2-10.6) it was 11.7% (95%CI: 9.5-14.3) in inpatients and 3.1% (95%CI: 1.7-5.5) in outpatients (P < 0.00001). SBP prevalence was 8.3% (95%CI: 4.3-15.6) in symptomatic outpatients vs 1.2% (95%CI: 0.4-3.4) in asymptomatic outpatients (P < 0.002). Patients undergoing outpatient AP were significantly different from those undergoing inpatient AP; they were older (61.1 ± 11.1 years vs 59.4 ± 11.7 years; P = 0.028), cause of cirrhosis was less often alcohol (83 .7 vs 88.2%; P < 0.001), Child-Pugh score was lower (8.9 vs 10.1; P < 0.001) and more often B than C (63.7% vs 38%; P < 0.001). In addition, in outpatients the platelet count was higher (161 ± 93 Giga/L vs 143 ± 89 Giga/L; P = 0.003), serum total bilirubin concentration was lower (38.2 ± 60.7 µmol/L vs 96.3 ± 143.3 µmol/L; P < 0.0001), and ascitic protein concentration higher (17.9 ± 10.7 g/L vs 14.5 ± 10.9 g/L; P < 0.001) than in inpatients. CONCLUSION: In asymptomatic cirrhotic outpatients, the incidence of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis is low thus exploratory paracentesis could be avoided in these patients without significant risk.

[Digestive infections in the elderly]. / Les infections digestives chez le sujet âgé.

Digestive infections are more frequent in the elderly, due mainly to physiological changes linked to age, comorbidities, medication and a communal living environment. Whether treatment is medical or surgical, the clinical and para-clinical assessment must be precise in order to provide the optimal treatment.

Comparison and improvement of MELD and Child-Pugh score accuracies for the prediction of 6-month mortality in cirrhotic patients.

BACKGROUND/GOALS: Superiority of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) over the Child-Pugh score for the prediction of outcome in patients with chronic liver disease is still debated. The main objective of this prospective study was to evaluate the accuracy of the Child-Pugh score, the MELD, and the new score, MELD-Na, combining MELD and serum sodium (Na), for the prediction of 6-month mortality in cirrhotic patients. STUDY: In all, 308 consecutive cirrhotic patients were included. Child-Pugh score, MELD, and MELD-Na were calculated at the inclusion. RESULTS: In all, 154 patients (50.0%) had decompensated cirrhosis. Forty-five patients died during the 6-month follow-up: 3 in the subgroup of compensated cirrhosis and 42 in the decompensated subgroup (1.9% vs. 27.3%, P<10(-3)). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the prediction of 6-month mortality of Child-Pugh score, MELD, and MELD-Na were, respectively, in the whole population: 0.882, 0.866, and 0.887 (P=NS), and in the subgroup of decompensated cirrhosis: 0.796, 0.800, and 0.833 (P=NS). MELD-Na had the highest accuracy but the difference reached statistical significance only with the Child-Pugh score in the subgroup of patients with decompensated cirrhosis (79.9% vs. 68.0%, P=0.006). The combination of Child-Pugh score or MELD with other variables reflecting the circulatory dysfunction observed in end-stage liver disease significantly improved the accuracy of these 2 models. CONCLUSIONS: Child-Pugh score remains a simple and effective tool for the prognostic assessment of cirrhotic patients at bedside and can still be used in clinical practice. MELD, and especially MELD-Na, should be reserved for patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

Diagnostic accuracy of the Multistix 8 SG reagent strip in diagnosis of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis.

UNLABELLED: Recent studies have shown that the diagnosis of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) can be rapidly obtained using leukocyte esterase reagent strips. However, published studies were restricted to one or two centers, and the number of patients with SBP was thus limited. The aims of the current prospective multicenter study were: (1) to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the Multistix 8SG urine test for the diagnosis of SBP; and (2) to assess the prevalence of SBP. From January to May 2004, 2 reactive strips were tested independently in inpatients with cirrhosis and in outpatients undergoing paracentesis. Cultures of ascitic fluid were performed at the bedside using aerobic and anaerobic blood culture bottles. Two thousand one hundred twenty-three paracenteses were performed in 1,041 patients from 70 centers. One hundred seventeen samples, obtained from 91 patients, had ascites polymorphonuclear cell (PMN) counts>or=250/microl (range, 250-34,000), among which 56 were associated with positive ascitic fluid cultures. The prevalence of SBP was 5.5% in the whole population, 9% in inpatients, and 1.3% in outpatients (P<0.0001). The prevalence of SBP was 0.57% in asymptomatic outpatients versus 2.4% in symptomatic outpatients (P=0.04). Using a threshold of 2+ for positivity of the reagent strip, sensitivity was 45.3% for the diagnosis of SBP, specificity was 99.2%, positive predictive value was 77.9%, and negative predictive value was 96.9%. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the low prevalence of SBP in asymptomatic outpatients according to a priori defined criteria, and indicates an absence of diagnostic efficacy for this specific strip test.

Diagnostic and predictive factors of significant liver fibrosis and minimal lesions in patients with persistent unexplained elevated transaminases. A prospective multicenter study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: In patients with unexplained elevated transaminases, prognosis of the liver disease and factors associated with increased risk of liver fibrosis and normal/subnormal liver are unknown. The aim of this prospective study was to identify diagnosis and clinical and biological factors associated with significant (bridging) fibrosis and minimal lesions of the liver in patients with persistent unexplained elevated ALT levels. METHODS: From July 2002 through October 2004, all consecutive asymptomatic patients with unexplained chronically elevated ALT levels were included. All patients had clinical, biological, ultrasonographic examination and a liver biopsy. RESULTS: 272 patients (60.3% males, mean age 46.4 years, BMI 26.7) were included. Pathological findings were: minimal lesions (18.7%), steatosis (26.8%), NASH (32.7%), and miscellaneous (21.7%). Significant fibrosis was found in 27.4% of cases, including 9 cases of cirrhosis. By multivariate analysis, independent predictors of significant fibrosis were tobacco use (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.34-4.74 p=0.04), BMI>25 (2.49, 1.31-4.73 p=0.005) and diabetes (4.41, 1.73-11.29 p=0.002). Independent factors associated with minimal lesions were female gender (OR 3.4 95% CI 1.73-6.75 p<0.0001) and BMI<25 (3.55, 1.8-6.98, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with unexplained chronically elevated transaminases, significant fibrosis is statistically associated with tobacco use, BMI>25 and diabetes, and minimal lesions are significantly associated with female gender and BMI<25.