The potential for coral reef restoration to mitigate coastal flooding as sea levels rise.

The ability of reefs to protect coastlines from storm-driven flooding hinges on their capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise. Here, we show how and whether coral restoration could achieve the often-cited goal of reversing the impacts of coral-reef degradation to preserve this essential function. We combined coral-growth measurements and carbonate-budget assessments of reef-accretion potential at Buck Island Reef, U.S. Virgin Islands, with hydrodynamic modeling to quantify future coastal flooding under various coral-restoration, sea-level rise, and storm scenarios. Our results provide guidance on how restoration of Acropora palmata, if successful, could mitigate the most extreme impacts of coastal flooding by reversing projected trajectories of reef erosion and allowing reefs to keep pace with the ~0.5 m of sea-level rise expected by 2100 with moderate carbon-emissions reductions. This highlights the potential long-term benefits of pursuing coral-reef restoration alongside climate-change mitigation to support the persistence of essential coral-reef ecosystem services.

Recovery of a large herbivore changes regulation of seagrass productivity in a naturally grazed Caribbean ecosystem.

What happens in meadows after populations of natural grazers rebound following centuries of low abundance? Many seagrass ecosystems are now experiencing this phenomenon with the recovery of green turtles (Chelonia mydas), large-bodied marine herbivores that feed on seagrasses. These seagrass ecosystems provide a rare opportunity to study ecosystem-wide shifts that result from a recovery of herbivores. We evaluate changes in regulation of seagrass productivity in a naturally grazed tropical ecosystem by (1) comparing Thalassia testudinum productivity in grazed and ungrazed areas and (2) evaluating potential regulating mechanisms of T. testudinum productivity. We established 129 green turtle exclusion cages in grazed and ungrazed areas to quantify T. testudinum growth (linear, area, mass, productivity : biomass [P:B]). In each exclosure, we recorded temperature, irradiance, water depth, nitrogen : phosphorus ratio (N:P) of blade tissue, grazing intensity before cage placement, and T. testudinum structural and nutrient characteristics. Thalassia testudinum exhibited compensatory growth in grazed areas via stimulated blade linear growth, blade area growth, and P:B across seasonal high and low growth periods and in shallow (3-4 m) and deep (9-10 m) seagrass meadows. Irradiance, depth, and N:P ratios had significant roles in regulating mass growth and P:B of T. testudinum in ungrazed areas. Depth was a significant regulating factor of mass growth and P:B in grazed areas; rates were higher and more variable in shallow meadows than in deep meadows. Grazing intensity was also a significant regulating factor for P:B, stimulating tissue turnover with increasing grazing pressure. This study provides important insights into how recovery of a large marine herbivore can result in dramatic, sustainable changes in the regulation of seagrass productivity. We also highlight the need for a historical perspective and use of appropriate indicators, including P:B and grazing intensity, when evaluating seagrass response to green turtle grazing as meadows are returned to a natural grazed state. In an age of green turtle recovery and global seagrass decline due to anthropogenic threats, a thorough understanding of green turtle-seagrass interactions at the ecosystem level is critical to ensure the restoration of seagrass ecosystems and continued recovery of green turtle populations.

Testing methods to mitigate Caribbean yellow-band disease on Orbicella faveolata.

Outbreaks of coral diseases continue to reduce global coral populations. In the Caribbean, yellow band is a severe and wide-spread disease that commonly affects corals of the Orbicella spp. complex, significantly impeding coral reproduction, and hindering the natural recovery of Orbicella spp. POPULATIONS: Caribbean yellow-band disease (CYBD) lesions may be severe, and often result in the complete loss of coral tissue. The slow spread of CYBD, however, provides an opportunity to test methods to mitigate the disease. Here we report the results of in situ experiments, conducted within Buck Island Reef National Monument in St. Croix, USVI, to test the effectiveness of three techniques to minimize disease impact on Orbicella faveolata: (1) shading, (2) aspirating, and (3) chiseling a "firebreak" to isolate the lesion. Neither shading nor aspirating the diseased tissue significantly reduced CYBD tissue loss. However, chiseling reduced the rate and amount of tissue lost by 31%. While 30-40% of the chiseled lesions appeared to be free of disease signs 12-16 months after treatment, success significantly and steadily declined over 23 months, indicating a possible lack of long-term viability of the technique. The results of this study demonstrate that creating a "firebreak" between diseased and healthy-appearing tissue slows the spread of the disease and may prolong the life of O. faveolata colonies. The firebreak method yielded the best results of all the techniques tested, and also required the least amount of effort and resources. However, we do not recommend that this treatment alone be used for long-term disease mitigation. Rather, we propose that modifications of this and other treatment options be sought. The results also highlight the need for extended monitoring of CYBD after any treatment, due to the slow but variable rate and pattern of tissue loss in this disease.

Dispersal and population state of an endangered island lizard following a conservation translocation.

Population size is widely used as a unit of ecological analysis, yet to estimate population size requires accounting for observed and latent heterogeneity influencing dispersion of individuals across landscapes. In newly established populations, such as when animals are translocated for conservation, dispersal and availability of resources influence patterns of abundance. We developed a process to estimate population size using N-mixture models and spatial models for newly established and dispersing populations. We used our approach to estimate the population size of critically endangered St. Croix ground lizards (Ameiva polops) five years after translocation of 57 individuals to Buck Island, an offshore island of St. Croix, United States Virgin Islands. Estimates of population size incorporated abiotic variables, dispersal limits, and operative environmental temperature available to the lizards to account for low species detection. Operative environmental temperature and distance from the translocation site were always important in fitting the N-mixture model indicating effects of dispersal and species biology on estimates of population size. We found that the population is increasing its range across the island by 5-10% every six months. We spatially interpolated site-specific abundance from the N-mixture model to the entire island, and we estimated 1,473 (95% CI, 940-1,802) St. Croix ground lizards on Buck Island in 2013 corresponding to survey results. This represents a 26-fold increase since the translocation. We predicted the future dispersal of the lizards to all habitats on Buck Island, with the potential for the population to increase by another five times in the future. Incorporating biologically relevant covariates as explicit parameters in population models can improve predictions of population size and the future spread of species introduced to new localities.

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic.

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles-hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta-exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-the strongest on record-combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region-wide collaborations.

Can you hear me now? Range-testing a submerged passive acoustic receiver array in a Caribbean coral reef habitat.

Submerged passive acoustic technology allows researchers to investigate spatial and temporal movement patterns of many marine and freshwater species. The technology uses receivers to detect and record acoustic transmissions emitted from tags attached to an individual. Acoustic signal strength naturally attenuates over distance, but numerous environmental variables also affect the probability a tag is detected. Knowledge of receiver range is crucial for designing acoustic arrays and analyzing telemetry data. Here, we present a method for testing a relatively large-scale receiver array in a dynamic Caribbean coastal environment intended for long-term monitoring of multiple species. The U.S. Geological Survey and several academic institutions in collaboration with resource management at Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM), off the coast of St. Croix, recently deployed a 52 passive acoustic receiver array. We targeted 19 array-representative receivers for range-testing by submersing fixed delay interval range-testing tags at various distance intervals in each cardinal direction from a receiver for a minimum of an hour. Using a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), we estimated the probability of detection across the array and assessed the effect of water depth, habitat, wind, temperature, and time of day on the probability of detection. The predicted probability of detection across the entire array at 100 m distance from a receiver was 58.2% (95% CI: 44.0-73.0%) and dropped to 26.0% (95% CI: 11.4-39.3%) 200 m from a receiver indicating a somewhat constrained effective detection range. Detection probability varied across habitat classes with the greatest effective detection range occurring in homogenous sand substrate and the smallest in high rugosity reef. Predicted probability of detection across BIRNM highlights potential gaps in coverage using the current array as well as limitations of passive acoustic technology within a complex coral reef environment.