Age Dependent Epidemic Modeling of COVID-19 Outbreak in Kuwait, France, and Cameroon.

Revisiting the classical model by Ross and Kermack-McKendrick, the Susceptible−Infectious−Recovered (SIR) model used to formalize the COVID-19 epidemic, requires improvements which will be the subject of this article. The heterogeneity in the age of the populations concerned leads to considering models in age groups with specific susceptibilities, which makes the prediction problem more difficult. Basically, there are three age groups of interest which are, respectively, 0−19 years, 20−64 years, and >64 years, but in this article, we only consider two (20−64 years and >64 years) age groups because the group 0−19 years is widely seen as being less infected by the virus since this age group had a low infection rate throughout the pandemic era of this study, especially the countries under consideration. In this article, we proposed a new mathematical age-dependent (Susceptible−Infectious−Goneanewsusceptible−Recovered (SIGR)) model for the COVID-19 outbreak and performed some mathematical analyses by showing the positivity, boundedness, stability, existence, and uniqueness of the solution. We performed numerical simulations of the model with parameters from Kuwait, France, and Cameroon. We discuss the role of these different parameters used in the model; namely, vaccination on the epidemic dynamics. We open a new perspective of improving an age-dependent model and its application to observed data and parameters.

Analysis of Reproduction Number R0 of COVID-19 Using Current Health Expenditure as Gross Domestic Product Percentage (CHE/GDP) across Countries.

(1) Background: Impact and severity of coronavirus pandemic on health infrastructure vary across countries. We examine the role percentage health expenditure plays in various countries in terms of their preparedness and see how countries improved their public health policy in the first and second wave of the coronavirus pandemic; (2) Methods: We considered the infectious period during the first and second wave of 195 countries with their current health expenditure as gross domestic product percentage (CHE/GDP). An exponential model was used to calculate the slope of the regression line while the ARIMA model was used to calculate the initial autocorrelation slope and also to forecast new cases for both waves. The relationship between epidemiologic and CHE/GDP data was used for processing ordinary least square multivariate modeling and classifying countries into different groups using PC analysis, K-means and hierarchical clustering; (3) Results: Results show that some countries with high CHE/GDP improved their public health strategy against virus during the second wave of the pandemic; (4) Conclusions: Results revealed that countries who spend more on health infrastructure improved in the tackling of the pandemic in the second wave as they were worst hit in the first wave. This research will help countries to decide on how to increase their CHE/GDP in order to properly tackle other pandemic waves of the present COVID-19 outbreak and future diseases that may occur. We are also opening up a debate on the crucial role socio-economic determinants play during the exponential phase of the pandemic modelling.

Predicting temperature curve based on fast kNN local linear estimation of the conditional distribution function.

Predicting the yearly curve of the temperature, based on meteorological data, is essential for understanding the impact of climate change on humans and the environment. The standard statistical models based on the big data discretization in the finite grid suffer from certain drawbacks such as dimensionality when the size of the data is large. We consider, in this paper, the predictive region problem in functional time series analysis. We study the prediction by the shortest conditional modal interval constructed by the local linear estimation of the cumulative function of Y given functional input variable X . More precisely, we combine the k -Nearest Neighbors procedure to the local linear algorithm to construct two estimators of the conditional distribution function. The main purpose of this paper is to compare, by a simulation study, the efficiency of the two estimators concerning the level of dependence. The feasibility of these estimators in the functional times series prediction is examined at the end of this paper. More precisely, we compare the shortest conditional modal interval predictive regions of both estimators using real meteorological data.

Using Unstated Cases to Correct for COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak and Its Impact on Easing the Intervention for Qatar.

Epidemiological Modeling supports the evaluation of various disease management activities. The value of epidemiological models lies in their ability to study various scenarios and to provide governments with a priori knowledge of the consequence of disease incursions and the impact of preventive strategies. A prevalent method of modeling the spread of pandemics is to categorize individuals in the population as belonging to one of several distinct compartments, which represents their health status with regard to the pandemic. In this work, a modified SIR epidemic model is proposed and analyzed with respect to the identification of its parameters and initial values based on stated or recorded case data from public health sources to estimate the unreported cases and the effectiveness of public health policies such as social distancing in slowing the spread of the epidemic. The analysis aims to highlight the importance of unreported cases for correcting the underestimated basic reproduction number. In many epidemic outbreaks, the number of reported infections is likely much lower than the actual number of infections which can be calculated from the model's parameters derived from reported case data. The analysis is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic for several countries in the Gulf region and Europe.

Entropy as a Robustness Marker in Genetic Regulatory Networks.

Genetic regulatory networks have evolved by complexifying their control systems with numerous effectors (inhibitors and activators). That is, for example, the case for the double inhibition by microRNAs and circular RNAs, which introduce a ubiquitous double brake control reducing in general the number of attractors of the complex genetic networks (e.g., by destroying positive regulation circuits), in which complexity indices are the number of nodes, their connectivity, the number of strong connected components and the size of their interaction graph. The stability and robustness of the networks correspond to their ability to respectively recover from dynamical and structural disturbances the same asymptotic trajectories, and hence the same number and nature of their attractors. The complexity of the dynamics is quantified here using the notion of attractor entropy: it describes the way the invariant measure of the dynamics is spread over the state space. The stability (robustness) is characterized by the rate at which the system returns to its equilibrium trajectories (invariant measure) after a dynamical (structural) perturbation. The mathematical relationships between the indices of complexity, stability and robustness are presented in case of Markov chains related to threshold Boolean random regulatory networks updated with a Hopfield-like rule. The entropy of the invariant measure of a network as well as the Kolmogorov-Sinaï entropy of the Markov transition matrix ruling its random dynamics can be considered complexity, stability and robustness indices; and it is possible to exploit the links between these notions to characterize the resilience of a biological system with respect to endogenous or exogenous perturbations. The example of the genetic network controlling the kinin-kallikrein system involved in a pathology called angioedema shows the practical interest of the present approach of the complexity and robustness in two cases, its physiological normal and pathological, abnormal, dynamical behaviors.

Inverted Covariate Effects for First versus Mutated Second Wave Covid-19: High Temperature Spread Biased for Young.

(1) Background: Here, we characterize COVID-19's waves, following a study presenting negative associations between first wave COVID-19 spread parameters and temperature. (2) Methods: Visual examinations of daily increases in confirmed COVID-19 cases in 124 countries, determined first and second waves in 28 countries. (3) Results: The first wave spread rate increases with country mean elevation, median population age, time since wave onset, and decreases with temperature. Spread rates decrease above 1000 m, indicating high ultraviolet lights (UVs) decrease the spread rate. The second wave associations are the opposite, i.e., spread increases with temperature and young age, and decreases with time since wave onset. The earliest second waves started 5-7 April at mutagenic high elevations (Armenia, Algeria). The second waves also occurred at the warm-to-cold season transition (Argentina, Chile). Second vs. first wave spread decreases in most (77%) countries. In countries with late first wave onset, spread rates better fit second than first wave-temperature patterns. In countries with ageing populations (for example, Japan, Sweden, and Ukraine), second waves only adapted to spread at higher temperatures, not to infect the young. (4) Conclusions: First wave viruses evolved towards lower spread. Second wave mutant COVID-19 strain(s) adapted to higher temperature, infecting younger ages and replacing (also in cold conditions) first wave COVID-19 strains. Counterintuitively, low spread strains replace high spread strains, rendering prognostics and extrapolations uncertain.

Stochastic monotony signature and biomedical applications.

We introduce a new concept, the stochastic monotony signature of a function, made of the sequence of the signs that indicate if the function is increasing or constant (sign +), or decreasing (sign -). If the function results from the averaging of successive observations with errors, the monotony sign is a random binary variable, whose density is studied under two hypotheses for the distribution of errors: uniform and Gaussian. Then, we describe a simple statistical test allowing the comparison between the monotony signatures of two functions (e.g., one observed and the other as reference) and we apply the test to four biomedical examples, coming from genetics, psychology, gerontology, and morphogenesis.