Malaria elimination: situation analysis of cases in India, the state of Madhya Pradesh in central India, and district Mandla of Madhya Pradesh.

India contributed approximately 66% of the malaria cases in the WHO South-East Asia region in 2022. In India, approximately 44% of cases have been reported to be disproportionately contributed by approximately 27 districts. A comparative analysis of reported malaria cases between January 2017 and December 2022 was performed in Mandla district, which is the site of a model malaria elimination demonstration project (MEDP) in Madhya Pradesh (MP), India. Compared to 2017, the decrease in malaria cases in Mandla from 2018 to 2022 was higher than MP and the rest of the country. The reduction of cases was significant in 2018, 2019, and 2021 (p < 0.01) (Mandla vs. MP) and was highly significant during 2018-2022 (p < 0.001) (Mandla vs. India). Robust surveillance and real-time data-based decisions accompanied by appropriate management, operational controls, and independent reviews, all designed for resource optimisation, were the reasons for eliminating indigenous malaria in Mandla district. The increase in infection rates during the months immediately following rains suggests that surveillance, vector control, and case management efforts should be specifically intensified for eliminating imported and indigenous cases in the near-elimination districts to work towards achieving the national elimination goal of 2030.

Time series analysis of malaria cases to assess the impact of various interventions over the last three decades and forecasting malaria in India towards the 2030 elimination goals.

BACKGROUND: Despite the progress made in this decade towards malaria elimination, it remains a significant public health concern in India and many other countries in South Asia and Asia Pacific region. Understanding the historical trends of malaria incidence in relation to various commodity and policy interventions and identifying the factors associated with its occurrence can inform future intervention strategies for malaria elimination goals. METHODS: This study analysed historical malaria cases in India from 1990 to 2022 to assess the annual trends and the impact of key anti-malarial interventions on malaria incidence. Factors associated with malaria incidence were identified using univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses. Generalized linear, smoothing, autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) and Holt's models were used to forecast malaria cases from 2023 to 2030. RESULTS: The reported annual malaria cases in India during 1990-2000 were 2.38 million, which dropped to 0.73 million cases annually during 2011-2022. The overall reduction from 1990 (2,018,783) to 2022 (176,522) was 91%. The key interventions of the Enhanced Malaria Control Project (EMCP), Intensified Malaria Control Project (IMCP), use of bivalent rapid diagnostic tests (RDT-Pf/Pv), artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), and involvement of the Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs) as front-line workers were found to result in the decline of malaria significantly. The ARIMA and Holt's models projected a continued decline in cases with the potential for reaching zero indigenous cases by 2027-2028. Important factors influencing malaria incidence included tribal population density, literacy rate, health infrastructure, and forested and hard-to-reach areas. CONCLUSIONS: Studies aimed at assessing the impact of major commodity and policy interventions on the incidence of disease and studies of disease forecasting will inform programmes and policymakers of steps needed during the last mile phase to achieve malaria elimination. It is proposed that these time series and disease forecasting studies should be performed periodically using granular (monthly) and meteorological data to validate predictions of prior studies and suggest any changes needed for elimination efforts at national and sub-national levels.

A Scoping Review on Malaria Prevention and Control Intervention in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCAS): A Need for Renewed Focus to Enhance International Cooperation.

Malaria is a major public health problem in developing countries. The burden of malaria in fragile and conflict-affected states (FCAS) is increasing year by year. Moreover, the population living in FCAS is often the most vulnerable and at high risk of malaria due to factors, such as deteriorating healthcare system, mass relocations, and reduced resilience to shocks. Therefore, this scoping review aims to map the interventions that are conducted at the FCAS on malaria prevention among the general population. In addition, this review can help policy-makers and international health bodies, providing a comprehensive overview that can lead to more targeted, effective, and context-specific interventions. Databases, such as PubMed, EBSCO-CINAHL, Web of Science, ProQuest, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, were searched using specified search terms. A total of 3601 studies were retrieved from the search. After screening, 62 studies were included in the synthesis that met the eligibility criteria. Narrative analysis of the findings was done. The results revealed that in fragile countries, interventions for children below 5 years of age included IPTi, TDA, and ACT. In conflicted countries, interventions for children below 5 years of age included TDA, LLINs, SMC, drug trials, and vaccination. Similar interventions were reported for other age groups and populations. Despite ongoing conflicts, malaria interventions have been maintained in these countries, but a persistent high burden of malaria remains. To achieve the goals of malaria elimination, the results of the review highlight the need for continued research and evaluation of malaria control interventions to assess their effectiveness and impact. Strengthening health systems, building partnerships, utilizing digital health technologies, and conducting context-specific research are recommended to improve healthcare access and reduce the burden of malaria in FCAS.

Science of malaria elimination: using knowledge of bottlenecks and enablers from the Malaria Elimination Demonstration Project in Central India for eliminating malaria in the Asia Pacific region.

Malaria poses a major public health challenge in the Asia Pacific. Malaria Elimination Demonstration Project was conducted as a public-private partnership initiative in Mandla between State government, ICMR, and FDEC India. The project employed controls for efficient operational and management decisions. IEC campaigns found crucial in schools and communities. Capacity building of local workers emphasized for better diagnosis and treatment. SOCH mobile app launched for complete digitalization. Better supervision for Indoor Residual Sprays and optimized Long Lasting Insecticidal Nets distribution. Significant malaria cases reduction in Mandla. Insights from MEDP crucial for malaria elimination strategies in other endemic regions of the Asia Pacific.