Low-Level Viremia among Adults Living with HIV on Dolutegravir-Based First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy Is a Predictor of Virological Failure in Botswana.

We evaluated subsequent virologic outcomes in individuals experiencing low-level virem ia (LLV) on dolutegravir (DTG)-based first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Botswana. We used a national dataset from 50,742 adults who initiated on DTG-based first-line ART from June 2016-December 2022. Individuals with at least two viral load (VL) measurements post three months on DTG-based first-line ART were evaluated for first and subsequent episodes of LLV (VL:51-999 copies/mL). LLV was sub-categorized as low-LLV (51-200 copies/mL), medium-LLV (201-400 copies/mL) and high-LLV (401-999 copies/mL). The study outcome was virologic failure (VF) (VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL): virologic non-suppression defined as single-VF and confirmed-VF defined as two-consecutive VF measurements after an initial VL < 1000 copies/mL. Cox regression analysis identified predictive factors of subsequent VF. The prevalence of LLV was only statistically different at timepoints >6-12 (2.8%) and >12-24 (3.9%) (p-value < 0.01). LLV was strongly associated with both virologic non-suppression (adjusted hazards ratio [aHR] = 2.6; 95% CI: 2.2-3.3, p-value ≤ 0.001) and confirmed VF (aHR = 2.5; 95% CI: 2.4-2.7, p-value ≤ 0.001) compared to initially virally suppressed PLWH. High-LLV (HR = 3.3; 95% CI: 2.9-3.6) and persistent-LLV (HR = 6.6; 95% CI: 4.9-8.9) were associated with an increased hazard for virologic non-suppression than low-LLV and a single-LLV episode, respectively. In a national cohort of PLWH on DTG-based first-line ART, LLV > 400 copies/mL and persistent-LLV had a stronger association with VF. Frequent VL testing and adherence support are warranted for individuals with VL > 50 copies/mL.

Progress towards the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in the Fifth Botswana AIDS Impact Survey (BAIS V 2021): a nationally representative survey.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, UNAIDS set a goal to end the AIDS epidemic by achieving targets for the percentage of people living with HIV who were aware of their status, on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and virally suppressed. In 2020, these targets were revised to 95% for each measure (known as 95-95-95), to be reached among people living with HIV by 2025. We used data from the Fifth Botswana AIDS Impact Survey (BAIS V) to measure progress towards these testing and treatment targets in Botswana. METHODS: BAIS V used a two-stage cluster design to obtain a nationally representative sample of people aged 15-64 years in Botswana. During March-August, 2021, 14 763 consenting participants were interviewed and tested for HIV in their households by survey teams. HIV-positive specimens were tested for viral load, presence of antiretroviral drugs, and recency of infection using the HIV-1 limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay. Estimates of HIV-positive status and use of ART were based on self-report and the analysis of blood specimens for antiretroviral drugs. Viral load suppression was defined as an HIV RNA concentration of less than 1000 copies per mL. HIV incidence was calculated using the recent infection testing algorithm. Data were weighted to account for the complex survey design. FINDINGS: The national HIV prevalence in Botswana among people aged 15-64 years was 20·8% and the annual incidence of HIV infection was 0·2%. 95·1% (men 93·0%, women 96·4%) of people living with HIV aged 15-64 years were aware of their status, 98·0% (men 97·2%, women 98·4%) of those aware were on ART, and 97·9% (men 96·6%, women 98·6%) of those on ART had viral load suppression. Among young people (aged 15-24 years) living with HIV, 84·5% were aware of their status, 98·5% of those aware were on ART, and 91·6% of those on ART had viral load suppression. The prevalance of viral load suppression among all people living with HIV was 91·8%, and varied by district-ranging from 85·3% in Gaborone to 100·0% in Selibe Phikwe. INTERPRETATION: BAIS V is the first population-based survey worldwide to report the achievement of the UNAIDS 95-95-95 goals, both overall and among women. Strategies to reach undiagnosed men and young people, including young women, are needed. FUNDING: US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

Tracking cryptococcal meningitis to monitor HIV program success during the Treat-All era: an analysis of national data in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: Cryptococcal meningitis causes substantial mortality in high-HIV prevalence African countries despite advances in disease management and increasing antiretroviral therapy coverage. Reliable diagnosis of cryptococcal meningitis is cheap and more accessible than other indicators of AHD burden such as CD4 testing or investigation for disseminated tuberculosis; therefore, monitoring cryptococcal meningitis incidence has the potential to serve as a valuable metric of HIV programmatic success. METHODS: Botswana national meningitis surveillance data from 2015 to 2022 were obtained from electronic health records. All electronic laboratory records from cerebrospinal fluid samples analysed within government healthcare facilities in Botswana were extracted from a central online repository. Adjustments for missing data were made through triangulation with prospective cohort study datasets. Cryptococcal meningitis case frequency was enumerated using a case definition and incidence calculated using national census data. RESULTS: A total of 1,744 episodes of cryptococcal meningitis were identified; incidence declined from 15.0 (95% CI 13.4-16.7) cases/100,000 person-years in 2015 to 7.4 (95% CI 6.4-8.6) cases/100,000 person-years in 2022. However, the rate of decline slowed following the introduction of universal treatment in 2016. The highest incidence was observed in men and individuals aged 40-44. The proportion of cases diagnosed through cryptococcal antigen testing increased from 35.5% to 86.3%. CONCLUSION: Cryptococcal meningitis incidence has decreased in Botswana following expansion of ART coverage but persists at a stubbornly high incidence. Most cases are now diagnosed through the cheap and easy-to-use cryptococcal antigen test highlighting the potential of using cryptococcal meningitis as key metric of programme success in the Treat All era.

Improved Indicators for Subnational Unmet Antiretroviral Therapy Need in the Health System: Updates to the Naomi Model in 2023.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying subnational need for antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV is challenging because people living with HIV (PLHIV) access health facilities in areas that may differ from their residence. We defined and demonstrated new indicators for PLHIV treatment needed to guide health system target setting and resource allocation. SETTING: Botswana. METHODS: We extended Naomi, a Bayesian small-area model for estimating district-level HIV indicators from national household survey and HIV service delivery data. We used model outputs for ART seeking probabilities in neighboring districts to define the "PLHIV (attending)" indicator representing the estimated number of PLHIV who would seek treatment at health facilities in a district, and "Untreated PLHIV attending" representing gaps in ART service provision. Botswana 2021 district HIV estimates were used to demonstrate new outputs and assess the sensitivity to uncertainty in district population sizes. RESULTS: Across districts of Botswana, estimated adult ART coverage in December 2021 ranged 90%-96%. In the capital city Gaborone, there were 50,400 resident PLHIV and 64,200 receiving ART, of whom 24% (95% CI: 20 to 32) were estimated to reside in neighboring districts. Applying ART attendance probabilities gave a "PLHIV attending" denominator of 68,300 and unmet treatment need of 4100 adults (95% CI: 3000 to 5500) for Gaborone health facilities. The facility-based "PLHIV attending" denominator was less-sensitive to fluctuations in district population size assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: New indicators provided more consistent targets for HIV service provision, but are limited by ART data quality. This challenge will increase as treatment coverage reaches high levels and treatment gaps are smaller.

The barriers and facilitators of HIV-exposed infant testing as perceived by HIV-positive mothers in Botswana: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Despite high rates of HIV testing and enrolment of HIV-positive pregnant women on antiretroviral therapy in Botswana, coverage for HIV-exposed infant (HEI) testing remains suboptimal. Many factors can contribute to suboptimal HEI testing rates, but they have seldom been thoroughly investigated in Botswana. Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore the experiences and perspectives of HIV-positive mothers on the barriers and facilitators of HEI testing to inform interventions to promote HEI testing in Botswana. METHODS: We conducted focus group discussions (FGDs) with HIV-positive mothers who gave birth in 2016 at the three largest public hospitals in Botswana. FGDs were held in Maun, Francistown, and Gaborone from September 2019 to March 2020. The maximum variation sampling method was used to select the participants using information that was abstracted from birth registers and other medical records at the study sites. Mothers were asked to describe their HEI testing experiences, what made it easy or difficult for them to return the HEI for testing, and what needs to be done to improve HEI testing in Botswana. A thematic approach was used to analyse the data. RESULTS: Fifteen FGDs with 142 mothers (aged 21-52 years) were held. Participants identified several facilitators to HEI testing, including a mother with adequate knowledge of PMTCT, intensive tracking of HEI by healthcare workers (HCWs), positive attitudes of HCWs toward clients, and social support from significant others. Staff shortages at health care facilities, frequent stock-outs of HIV test kits, fear of stigma, fear of positive test results for the child, and transportation challenges were identified as key barriers to HEI testing. Increasing staffing at healthcare facilities, having adequate supplies of HIV test kits, enhanced HEI tracking, easing access to HEI testing services in rural areas, and providing quality PMTCT education were among the proposed interventions to promote HEI testing. CONCLUSION: Optimizing HEI testing in Botswana will require multi-level interventions at the policy, health system, community, interpersonal, and individual levels.

Improving same-day antiretroviral therapy in Botswana: effects of a multifaceted national intervention.

BACKGROUND: In 2019, the Botswana Ministry of Health and Wellness (MOHW) implemented an HIV national Reboot program, which was needed for refocusing and intensifying efforts for achieving epidemic control. The strategies deployed as part of Reboot were reviewed and evaluated for their effect on same-day and within-seven-days (fast-track initiation) antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation among adults newly identified with HIV. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of patients aged 18 years or older who were newly diagnosed with HIV from October 2018 to September 2019 across 41 health facilities. We used generalized linear mixed models, adjusting for clustering by facility, to assess the association of the Reboot with same-day or within-seven-days ART initiation (fast-track initiation). RESULTS: From October 2018 to January 2019, 28% (636/2269) of newly diagnosed HIV patients were initiated the same day of diagnosis, and 56% (1260/2269) were initiated within seven days. Following the launch of Reboot (February to September 2019), 59% (2092/3553) were initiated the same day of diagnosis, and 77% (2752/3553) were initiated within seven days. Clients were 2.08 (adjusted risk ratio 95% confidence interval 1.79-2.43) times more likely to be initiated the same day of diagnosis and 1.39 (adjusted risk ratio 95% confidence interval 1.28-1.52) times more likely to be initiated within seven days than before Reboot after adjusting for sex and age. CONCLUSION: In Botswana, a multifaceted national intervention improved timely ART initiation. Identifying and implementing different client-centered strategies to facilitate ART initiation is critical to preventing AIDS-related complications and prevent ongoing transmission.

Five years after Treat All implementation: Botswana's HIV response and future directions in the era of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: As the relentless coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to spread across Africa, Botswana could face challenges maintaining the pathway towards control of its HIV epidemic. OBJECTIVE: Utilising the Spectrum GOALS module (GOALS-2021), the 5-year outcomes from the implementation of the Treat All strategy were analysed and compared with the original 2016 Investment Case (2016-IC) projections. Future impact of adopting the new Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Global AIDS Strategy (2021-2026) targets and macroeconomic analysis estimating how the financial constraints from the COVID-19 pandemic could impact the available resources for Botswana's National HIV Response through 2030 were also considered. METHOD: Programmatic costs, population demographics, prevention and treatment outputs were determined. Previous 2016-IC data were uploaded for comparison, and inputs for the GOALS, AIM, DemProj, Resource Needs and Family Planning modules were derived from published reports, strategic plans, programmatic data and expert opinion. The economic projections were recalibrated with consideration of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Decreases in HIV infections, incidence and mortality rates were achieved. Increases in laboratory costs were offset by estimated decreases in the population of people living with HIV (PLWH). Moving forward, young women and others at high risk must be targeted in HIV prevention efforts, as Botswana transitions from a generalised to a more concentrated epidemic. CONCLUSION: The Treat All strategy contributed positively to decreases in new HIV infections, mortality and costs. If significant improvements in differentiated service delivery, increases in human resources and HIV prevention can be realised, Botswana could become one of the first countries with a previously high-burdened generalised HIV epidemic to gain epidemic control, despite the demands of the COVID-19 pandemic.

HIV-1 Subtype C Drug Resistance Mutations in Heavily Treated Patients Failing Integrase Strand Transfer Inhibitor-Based Regimens in Botswana.

There are limited real-world mutational and virological outcomes data of treatment-experienced persons diagnosed with HIV-1 subtype C (HIV-1 C) who are failing Integrase Strand Transfer Inhibitor-based regimens. Requisition forms sent for HIV-1 genotypic resistance testing (GRT) between May 2015 and September 2019 were reviewed and participants experiencing virologic failure while on dolutegravir (DTG) or raltegravir (RAL) cART at sampling recruited. Sanger sequencing of the HIV-1 Pol gene was performed from residual plasma samples and drug resistance mutational (DRM) analysis performed using the Stanford University HIV drug resistance database. 40 HIV-1C integrase sequences were generated from 34 individuals, 24 of whom were on DTG cART, three on RAL cART and seven on an unknown (DTG or RAL)-anchored cART at time of GRT. 11/34 (32%) individuals had DRMs to DTG and other integrase inhibitors. 7/11 (64%) patients had exposure to a RAL-based cART at the time of sampling. Out of the 11 individuals with DRMs, one (9%) had 2-class, 6 (55%) had 3-class, and 4 (36%) had 4-class multidrug-resistant HIV-1C. 7/11 individuals (64%) are currently virologically suppressed. Of the four individuals not virologically suppressed, three had extensive DRMs involving 4-classes of ARV drugs and one individual has demised. Resistance to DTG occurs more often in patients exposed to RAL cART. Individuals with 4-class DRMs plus integrase T97 and E157Q mutations appear to have worse outcomes. There is a need for frequent VL monitoring and GRT amongst treatment-experienced HIV-1C diagnosed individuals.

Four-class drug-resistant HIV-1 subtype C in a treatment experienced individual on dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy in Botswana.

: There are limited data on the effectiveness of dolutegravir (DTG)-based combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in real-life settings in southern Africa where HIV-1 subtype C predominates. We report a patient infected with HIV-1 subtype C on DTG-based ART previously exposed to raltegravir who developed multidrug resistance mutations to four antiretroviral classes. There is need for drug resistance monitoring and clinical vigilance to ensure effectiveness of HIV treatment programs even in the era of DTG-based ART.