High accuracy model for HBsAg loss based on longitudinal trajectories of serum qHBsAg throughout long-term antiviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE: Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss is the optimal outcome for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) but this rarely occurs with currently approved therapies. We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic model for HBsAg loss on treatment using longitudinal data from a large, prospectively followed, nationwide cohort. DESIGN: CHB patients receiving nucleos(t)ide analogues as antiviral treatment were enrolled from 50 centres in China. Quantitative HBsAg (qHBsAg) testing was prospectively performed biannually per protocol. Longitudinal discriminant analysis algorithm was used to estimate the incidence of HBsAg loss, by integrating clinical data of each patient collected during follow-up. RESULTS: In total, 6792 CHB patients who had initiated antiviral treatment 41.3 (IQR 7.6-107.6) months before enrolment and had median qHBsAg 2.9 (IQR 2.3-3.3) log10IU/mL at entry were analysed. With a median follow-up of 65.6 (IQR 51.5-84.7) months, the 5-year cumulative incidence of HBsAg loss was 2.4%. A prediction model integrating all qHBsAg values of each patient during follow-up, designated GOLDEN model, was developed and validated. The AUCs of GOLDEN model were 0.981 (95% CI 0.974 to 0.987) and 0.979 (95% CI 0.974 to 0.983) in the training and external validation sets, respectively, and were significantly better than those of a single qHBsAg measurement. GOLDEN model identified 8.5%-10.4% of patients with a high probability of HBsAg loss (5-year cumulative incidence: 17.0%-29.1%) and was able to exclude 89.6%-91.5% of patients whose incidence of HBsAg loss is 0. Moreover, the GOLDEN model consistently showed excellent performance among various subgroups. CONCLUSION: The novel GOLDEN model, based on longitudinal qHBsAg data, accurately predicts HBsAg clearance, provides reliable estimates of functional hepatitis B virus (HBV) cure and may have the potential to stratify different subsets of patients for novel anti-HBV therapies.

Sphingosine d18:1 promotes nonalcoholic steatohepatitis by inhibiting macrophage HIF-2α.

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a severe type of the non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). NASH is a growing global health concern due to its increasing morbidity, lack of well-defined biomarkers and lack of clinically effective treatments. Using metabolomic analysis, the most significantly changed active lipid sphingosine d18:1 [So(d18:1)] is selected from NASH patients. So(d18:1) inhibits macrophage HIF-2α as a direct inhibitor and promotes the inflammatory factors secretion. Male macrophage-specific HIF-2α knockout and overexpression mice verified the protective effect of HIF-2α on NASH progression. Importantly, the HIF-2α stabilizer FG-4592 alleviates liver inflammation and fibrosis in NASH, which indicated that macrophage HIF-2α is a potential drug target for NASH treatment. Overall, this study confirms that So(d18:1) promotes NASH and clarifies that So(d18:1) inhibits the transcriptional activity of HIF-2α in liver macrophages by suppressing the interaction of HIF-2α with ARNT, suggesting that macrophage HIF-2α may be a potential target for the treatment of NASH.

Mortality Burden of Liver Cancer in China: An Observational Study From 2008 to 2020.

Background and Aims: China accounts for nearly half of liver cancer deaths globally. A better understanding of the current liver cancer mortality will be helpful to establishing priorities for intervention and to decreasing the disease burden of liver cancer. The study aimed to explore and predict the mortality burden of liver cancer in China. Methods: Data were extracted from the Disease Surveillance Point system of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2008 to 2020. Crude and age-standardized liver cancer mortality rates were reported by sex, urban or rural residence, and region. Trends in liver cancer mortality rates from 2008 to 2020 were estimated as average annual percentage change (AAPC). The changing trend of live cancer mortality in the future is also predicted. Results: In 2020, the crude mortality of liver cancer was 25.57/100,000, and males and people lived in rural areas had higher age-standardized liver cancer mortality rates than females and people lived in people in urban areas. Crude mortality and age-standardized mortality rates in southwest provinces (Guangxi, Sichuan, Tibet) and in a northeast province (Heilongjiang) were higher than that in other provinces, and age-specific mortality rates increased with age. From 2008 to 2020, liver cancer mortality rates decreased, but people under 50 years of age had a higher AAPC than those over 50 years of age, possibly because of the adoption of hepatitis B virus vaccination in newborns and children. Furthermore, the mortality of liver cancer in 2021-2030 is predicted to have a downward trend. Conclusions: Liver cancer mortality rates declined in China from 2008 to 2020. Future interventions to control liver cancer mortality need to focus on people of male sex, older age, and living in rural areas or less developed provinces.

Trends in Mortality of Cirrhosis in China: An Analysis of the China Death Surveillance Database from 2008 to 2020.

Background and Aims: China accounts for 14.9% of total cirrhosis deaths worldwide. A detailed and comprehensive understanding of the contemporary status of cirrhosis mortality in China is crucial for establishing strategies for intervention and decreasing the disease burden of cirrhosis worldwide. The study aimed to report the cirrhosis mortality rates in our whole country or province over time. Methods: Mortality data from 2008 to 2020 were retrieved from the Disease Surveillance Point System (DSPs) of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The crude mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate of patients with cirrhosis were stratified by sex, residential location, and region. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) in cirrhosis mortality rates from 2008 to 2020 was also calculated. Results: The crude mortality rate of cirrhosis was 4.57/100,000 people in 2020. Compared with females and individuals living in urban areas, males and people living in rural areas had greater age-standardized mortality. The crude mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate in provinces in Southwest China (Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Qinghai) were greater than those in other provinces. Moreover, with increasing age, the age-specific mortality rate increased significantly. From 2008 to 2020, the mortality rate of cirrhosis in China decreased except for in males aged 50-59 years, females aged 45-49 years and females aged 80-84 years. Conclusions: The mortality rate of patients with cirrhosis in China decreased from 2008 to 2020. In the future, interventions of cirrhosis mortality control need to pay more attention to all males, females aged 45-49 and 80-84 years, and people living in rural areas and in provinces in Southwest China.

Identification of two novel large deletions in FBN1 gene by next-generation sequencing and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification.

BACKGROUND: Mutations in fibrillin-1 (FBN1) are known to be associated with Marfan syndrome (MFS), an autosomal dominant connective tissue disorder. Most FBN1 mutations are missense or nonsense mutations. Traditional molecular genetic testing for the FBN1 gene, like Sanger sequencing, may miss disease-causing mutations in the gene's regulatory regions or non-coding sequences, as well as partial or complete gene deletions and duplications. METHODS: Next-generation sequencing, multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification and gap PCR were conducted on two MFS patients to screen for disease-causing mutations. RESULTS: We identified two large deletions in FBN1 from two MFS patients. One patient had a 0.23 Mb deletion (NC_000015.9:g.48550506_48779360del) including 5'UTR-exon6 of FBN1. The other patient harbored a 1416 bp deletion (NC_000015.9:g.48410869_48412284del) affecting the last exon, exon 66, of the FBN1 gene. CONCLUSION: Our results expanded the number of large FBN1 deletions and highlighted the importance of screening for large deletions in FBN1 in clinical genetic testing, especially for those with the classic MFS phenotype.

Hub Genes Involved in the Progression of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease to Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. With an increasing number of patients, NAFLD has been identified as a risk factor for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC). The precise pathophysiology of NAFLD-related HCC has not been completely understood recently. OBJECTIVE: We analyzed the hub genes related to NAFLD and HCC to predict the risk of NAFLD progressing to HCC. METHODS: Two datasets of NAFLD were used to identify differentially expressed genes. Lasso-Cox regression analysis was performed to determine a gene model to predict the risk of the progression from NAFLD to HCC. Three validation datasets were analyzed to evaluate the performance of the gene model, including normal and NAFLD with fibrosis, NAFLD with fibrosis and NAFLD-related HCC, and normal and NASH-related HCC. RESULTS: Seven genes, including COL1A1, TIPM1, VCAN, FOS, CD79A, CXCL9, and VWF, were identified as the hub genes, and then a gene model was constructed. By calculating, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for risk prediction were 0.97, 0.886, and 0.751 in the three validation datasets, respectively. Gene set enrichment analysis indicated that the MAPK, TGFß, p53, PPAR, insulin signaling pathways, and fatty acid metabolism were significantly upregulated in the high-risk group. GTPase activity and intrinsic apoptotic signaling pathway had significant upregulation in the low-risk group. CONCLUSION: The seven hub genes may predict the risk of NAFLD developing into HCC by mediating the potential molecular mechanism, which could be used as biomarkers for predicting the progression, diagnosis, and treatment of NAFLD.

Sustained virologic response improved the long-term health-related quality of life in patients with chronic hepatitis C: a prospective national study in China.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the trends in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients and to assess the longitudinal impact of antiviral therapy on their well-being. METHODS: In this prospective multicenter observational study in adults with HCV infection, sociodemographic, clinical characteristics and EQ-5D questionnaires were collected. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) models were used to assess the associations between these variables and changes in HRQoL over time. RESULTS: 456 patients were included, with a median age of 46.5 (36.5-57.0) years, of which 262 (57.5%) were males and 44 (9.6%) had cirrhosis. 335 patients (73.5%) receiving antiviral therapy and 61.8% achieved sustained virologic response (SVR). The baseline EQ-5D utility and EQ-VAS were 0.916 ± 0.208 and 80.6 ± 13.0. In multivariable analysis of GEE estimation, achieving SVR24 was positively associated with EQ-5D utility (p = 0.000) and EQ-VAS (p = 0.000) over time. Age and income were shown to be significant predictors of EQ-5D utility, while gender, age and genotype were associated with EQ-VAS over time. CONCLUSIONS: SVR improved long-term HRQoL in HCV patients in the first few years following viral clearance. Certain sociodemographic factors, such as gender, age, income as well as genotype, significantly influenced long-term changes in patients' quality of life. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01594554. Registration date: 09/05/2012.

Reasons for failure of noninvasive prenatal test for cell-free fetal DNA in maternal peripheral blood.

BACKGROUND: To explore reasons for the failure of noninvasive prenatal test (NIPT) for cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA) in maternal peripheral blood, and discuss appropriate treatment schemes after the failure of the test. METHODS: Altogether 41,136 pregnant women participated in NIPT. Blood samples were taken again from pregnant women who failed the first blood collection upon their informed consent. Prenatal genetic counseling or prenatal diagnosis was recommended for pregnant women with final NIPT failure. RESULTS: The first failure rate of NIPT was 0.737% (303/41136), and the reason for the failure was the low ratio of cffDNA in 135 (44.6%) of the 303 pregnant women. After the second or third blood sampling, the final failure rate was 0.182% (75/41136). The low ratio of cffDNA was the main reason for test failure in 42 (56.0%) of the 75 pregnant women who finally failed NIPT, among whom 44 (58.7%) had underlying diseases, including 21 (47.7%) with more than two coexisting underlying diseases. Only 27 (36.0%) of the 75 pregnant women with NIPT failure underwent interventional prenatal diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The main reason for NIPT failure was the low ratio of cffDNA. Postponing the gestational weeks of blood collection may improve the success rate. Resampling and retesting upon informed consent in pregnant women who failed the first test could improve the success rate. For pregnant women who finally failed NIPT, it is suggested strengthening the genetic counseling, prenatal examination, and ultrasound evaluation, and carry out interventional prenatal diagnosis if necessary.

HBV pregenome RNA as a predictor of spontanous HBeAg seroconversion in HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B patients.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have indicated that HBV pregenome RNA (HBV pgRNA) could predict HBeAg seroconversion among the chronic hapatitis B (CHB) patients treated with pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN) or nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs). However, the data about the prediction of HBV pgRNA for spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion is limited. METHODS: One hundred thirteen CHB patients with HBeAg-positive in the immune active phase were followed up for 76 weeks without antiviral treatment. Based on the laboratory test results of liver function, HBeAg, anti-HBe, and HBV DNA at week 76, patients were assigned to two groups: spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion (group A, n = 18) and non-spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion group. Among the latter group, 36 patients were selected as controls (group B, n = 36). RESULTS: At week 12, between group A and group B, there was a significant difference in the level of HBV pgRNA (group A 6.35 ± 1.24 log10 copies/ml and group B 7.52 ± 0.79 log10 copies/ml, P = 0.001), and the difference enlarged at week 28. The receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of the HBV pgRNA level and the ∆HBV pgRNA at week 28 were 0.912 (P = 0.001, 95% CI: 0.830-0.994), and 0.934 (P = 0.001, 95% CI: 0.872-0.996), respectively. The optimal cutoffs of HBV pgRNA and the reduction from baseline (∆HBV pgRNA) at week 28 for spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion prediction were 5.63 log10 copies/ml and 1.85 log10 copies/ml, respectively. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value of HBV pgRNA and ∆HBV pgRNA at week 28 were 86.7% and 87.2%, 87.5% and 89.5%, respectively. And the combination of the HBV pgRNA level and the HBV pgRNA decreased could provide better prediction. CONCLUSIONS: HBV pgRNA is a sound predictor for spontaneous HBeAg seroconversion among the CHB patients in immune active phase. Dynamic monitoring of HBV pgRNA is helpful for clinical treatment decision.

Alfosbuvir plus Daclatasvir for Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection in China.

INTRODUCTION: A pan-genotypic and effective treatment regimen for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains an unmet medical need in China. Alfosbuvir is a novel potent HCV NS5B polymerase inhibitor in development for the treatment of chronic HCV infection. We conducted a phase 3 study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of alfosbuvir in combination with daclatasvir in Chinese patients with HCV infection. METHODS: All patients received 600 mg alfosbuvir tablets plus 60 mg daclatasvir tablets once daily for 12 weeks. The primary endpoint was sustained virological response 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR12). A follow-up visit was done at week 4 and 12, and those who achieved SVR12 were followed up at post-treatment week 24. RESULTS: Of the 326 patients who received at least one dose of the study drug, 320 (98.2% [95% confidence interval (CI): 96.5%-99.5%]) achieved sustained virological response at post-treatment week 12 (SVR12), which was superior to the historical SVR12 rate of 88% (p < 0.0001). The SVR12 rates were similar regardless of most baseline characteristics. The most common adverse event (AE) (≥ 10%) was hypercholesterolemia. Serious adverse events (SAEs) were reported in 25 (7.7%) patients, none of which was judged to be related to the study drug. The majority of AEs were mild to moderate in severity. CONCLUSIONS: Alfosbuvir plus daclatasvir for 12 weeks was highly effective and safe in Chinese patients infected with HCV genotype 1, 2, 3, or 6, suggesting that this regimen could be a promising option for HCV treatment in China irrespective of genotype. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrial.gov identifier, NCT04070235.

Trends of Mortality in End-Stage Liver Disease - China, 2008-2020.

Introduction: Liver cancer and cirrhosis represent the most prevalent forms of end-stage liver diseases (ESLDs). Notably, in China, deaths attributed to ESLDs contribute significantly to the global mortality rate of these disorders. Enhanced comprehension of the mortality profile associated with ESLDs in China could provide crucial insights into intervention prioritization, which could in turn help reduce the overall global burden of these diseases. Methods: Data were obtained from China's Disease Surveillance Points system. The presentation includes both crude and age-standardized mortality rates, stratified by sex, residential location, and region. Using Joinpoint Regression, trends in annual mortality rates were estimated from the period of 2008 to 2020 and expressed as the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Results: In 2020, the gross mortality rate of ESLD stood at 30.08 cases per 100,000 individuals. A higher age-standardized ESLD mortality rate was observed in males and rural populations in comparison to their female and urban counterparts, respectively. Noticeably, the highest mortality rates associated with liver cancer and cirrhosis were reported in South and Southwest China, respectively. A positive correlation was noticed between age-specific ESLD mortality rates and advancing age. Interestingly, an annual decrease in the ESLD mortality rate was observed from 2008 to 2020. In urban contexts, the AAPC of cirrhosis was noted to be higher than that of liver cancer. Conclusions: The mortality rate associated with ESLDs in China decreased between 2008 and 2020. Nevertheless, the death burden attributable to ESLD continues to be alarmingly high. Future initiatives should prioritize the reduction of ESLD mortality in particular populations: males, elderly individuals, and those residing in rural regions of South and Southwest China. The emphasis of future interventions should be placed on antiviral therapy for adults diagnosed with viral hepatitis, and on the prevention of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection across all demographics.

Cost-effectiveness of expanded antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B virus infection in China: an economic evaluation.

Background: China, which has the largest chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) burden, may expand antiviral therapy to attain the World Health Organization (WHO)-2030 goal of 65% reduction in mortality. We evaluated health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of chronic HBV infection treatments based on alanine transaminase (ALT) antiviral treatment initiation thresholds and coverage in China to identify an optimal strategy. Methods: A decision-tree Markov state-transition model evaluated the cost-effectiveness of expanded antiviral treatment for chronic HBV infection by simulating 136 scenarios by ALT treatment initiation thresholds (40 U/L, 35 U/L for males and 25 U/L for females, 30 U/L for males and 19 U/L for females, and treating HBsAg+ individuals regardless of ALT values), population age groups (18-80, 30-80, and 40-80 years), implementation durations (2023, 2028, and 2033) under and treatment coverages (20%, 40%, 60%, and 80%). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses explored model uncertainty. Findings: Besides the status quo, we finally simulated 135 treatment-expanding scenarios based on the cross combination of different thresholds of ALT, treatment coverages, population's age groups and implementation time. For the status quo, a cumulative incidence of 16,038-42,691 HBV-related complications and 3116-18,428 related deaths will happened between 2030 and 2050. When the treatment threshold is expanded to 'ALT > 35 in males & ALT > 25 in females' immediately without expanding treatment coverage, it will save 2554 HBV-related complications and 348 related deaths compared to the status quo among the whole cohort by 2030, and US$ 156 million more will be costed for gaining 2962 more QALYs. If we just expand the ALT threshold to ALT > 30 in males & ALT > 19 in females, 3247 HBV-related complications and 470 related deaths will be prevented by 2030 under the current treatment coverage of 20%, which will cost US$ 242 million, US$ 583 million or US$ 606 million more by the year of 2030, 2040 or 2050, respectively. Treatment expanded to HBsAg+ will save the largest number of HBV-related complications and death. This expanding strategy also results in large complications or death reduction when it is limited to patients older than 30 years or 40 years. Under this strategy, four scenarios (Treating HBsAg+ with coverage of 60% or 80% for patients older than 18 years or 30 years) showed the effectiveness in reaching the target before the year 2030. Among all the strategies, treatment expanded to HBsAg+ would cost the most while providing the highest total QALYs compared to other strategies with similar implementation scenarios. ALT thresholds of 30 U/L and 19 U/L for males and females, respectively, with 80% coverage for 18-80 years, can attain the goal by 2043. Interpretation: Treating HBsAg+ individuals with 80% coverage for 18-80 years is optimal; earlier implementation of expanded antiviral treatment with a modified ALT threshold could decrease HBV-related complications and deaths to support the global target of 65% reduction in viral hepatitis B deaths. Funding: This study was funded by Global Center for Infectious Disease and Policy Research (BMU2022XY030); Global Health and Infectious Diseases Group (BMU2022XY030); The Chinese Foundations for Hepatitis Control and Prevention (2021ZC032); National Science and Technology Project on Development Assistance for Technology, Developing China-ASEAN Public Health Research and Development Collaborating Center (KY202101004); in part by National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFC2505100).

Collagen co-localized with macrovesicular steatosis better differentiates fibrosis progression in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease mouse models.

Background: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a global commonly occurring liver disease. However, its exact pathogenesis is not fully understood. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the progression of steatosis and fibrosis by examining their distribution, morphology, and co-localization in NAFLD animal models. Methods: Six mouse NAFLD groups were established: (1) western diet (WD) group; (2) WD with fructose in drinking water (WDF) group; (3) WDF + carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) group, WDF plus intraperitoneal injection of CCl4; (4) high-fat diet (HFD) group, (5) HFD with fructose (HFDF) group; and (6) HFDF + CCl4 group, HFDF plus intraperitoneal injection of CCl4. Liver tissue specimens from NAFLD model mice were collected at different time points. All the tissues were serially sectioned for histological staining and second-harmonic generation (SHG)/two-photon excitation fluorescence imaging (TPEF) imaging. The progression of steatosis and fibrosis was analyzed using SHG/TPEF quantitative parameters with respect to the non-alcoholic steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network scoring system. Results: qSteatosis showed a good correlation with steatosis grade (R: 0.823-0.953, p < 0.05) and demonstrated high performance (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.617-1) in six mouse models. Based on their high correlation with histological scoring, qFibrosis containing four shared parameters (#LongStrPS, #ThinStrPS, #ThinStrPSAgg, and #LongStrPSDis) were selected to create a linear model that could accurately identify differences among fibrosis stages (AUC: 0.725-1). qFibrosis co-localized with macrosteatosis generally correlated better with histological scoring and had a higher AUC in six animal models (AUC: 0.846-1). Conclusion: Quantitative assessment using SHG/TPEF technology can be used to monitor different types of steatosis and fibrosis progression in NAFLD models. The collagen co-localized with macrosteatosis could better differentiate fibrosis progression and might aid in developing a more reliable and translatable fibrosis evaluation tool for animal models of NAFLD.

Novel, high accuracy models for hepatocellular carcinoma prediction based on longitudinal data and cell-free DNA signatures.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Current hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores do not reflect changes in HCC risk resulting from liver disease progression/regression over time. We aimed to develop and validate two novel prediction models using multivariate longitudinal data, with or without cell-free DNA (cfDNA) signatures. METHODS: A total of 13,728 patients from two nationwide multicenter prospective observational cohorts, the majority of whom had chronic hepatitis B, were enrolled. aMAP score, as one of the most promising HCC prediction models, was evaluated for each patient. Low-pass whole-genome sequencing was used to derive multi-modal cfDNA fragmentomics features. A longitudinal discriminant analysis algorithm was used to model longitudinal profiles of patient biomarkers and estimate the risk of HCC development. RESULTS: We developed and externally validated two novel HCC prediction models with a greater accuracy, termed aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores. The aMAP-2 score, calculated with longitudinal data on the aMAP score and alpha-fetoprotein values during an up to 8-year follow-up, performed superbly in the training and external validation cohorts (AUC 0.83-0.84). The aMAP-2 score showed further improvement and accurately divided aMAP-defined high-risk patients into two groups with 5-year cumulative HCC incidences of 23.4% and 4.1%, respectively (p = 0.0065). The aMAP-2 Plus score, which incorporates cfDNA signatures (nucleosome, fragment and motif scores), optimized the prediction of HCC development, especially for patients with cirrhosis (AUC 0.85-0.89). Importantly, the stepwise approach (aMAP -> aMAP-2 -> aMAP-2 Plus) stratified patients with cirrhosis into two groups, comprising 90% and 10% of the cohort, with an annual HCC incidence of 0.8% and 12.5%, respectively (p <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores are highly accurate in predicting HCC. The stepwise application of aMAP scores provides an improved enrichment strategy, identifying patients at a high risk of HCC, which could effectively guide individualized HCC surveillance. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: In this multicenter nationwide cohort study, we developed and externally validated two novel hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk prediction models (called aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores), using longitudinal discriminant analysis algorithm and longitudinal data (i.e., aMAP and alpha-fetoprotein) with or without the addition of cell-free DNA signatures, based on 13,728 patients from 61 centers across mainland China. Our findings demonstrated that the performance of aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores was markedly better than the original aMAP score, and any other existing HCC risk scores across all subsets, especially for patients with cirrhosis. More importantly, the stepwise application of aMAP scores (aMAP -> aMAP-2 -> aMAP-2 Plus) provides an improved enrichment strategy, identifying patients at high risk of HCC, which could effectively guide individualized HCC surveillance.

Stages of psychological change among patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in China: a national cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is becoming the leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. However, treatment of NAFLD is potentially influenced by psychological conditions. Using the simplified version of the University of Rhode Island Change Assessment (URICA-SV) scale, this study aimed to evaluate the stage of psychological change as a prerequisite to refining implementation strategies for psychological change. DESIGN: A multicentre cross-sectional survey. SETTING: Ninety hospitals in China. PARTICIPANTS: 5181 patients with NAFLD were included in this study. OUTCOME MEASURES: All patients completed the URICA-SV questionnaire and were assigned to one of the three stages of change (precontemplation, contemplation or action) according to their readiness scores. A stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent factors associated with the stage of psychological change. RESULTS: A total of 4832 (93.3%) patients were included in the precontemplation stage and only 349 (6.7%) considered making a change or preparing to make one. There were significant differences in gender (Cohen's d=0.039, p=0.005), age (Cohen's d=-0.327, p<0.001), waist circumference (Cohen's d=0.143, p=0.003), alanine transaminase (Cohen's d=0.347, p=0.001), triglyceride (Cohen's d=0.351, p=0.002), body mass index (BMI; Cohen's d=0.056, p<0.001), proportion of hyperlipidaemia (Cohen's d=0.068, p<0.001) and cardiovascular disease (Cohen's d=0.032, p=0.029), therapeutic regimen (Cohen's d=0.136, p<0.001), and Chronic Liver Disease Questionnaire-Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease overall score (Cohen's d=-0.420, p<0.001) between patients with NAFLD in the precontemplation stage and those in the contemplation/action stage. Logistic regression identified BMI (HR 0.659, 95% CI 0.469 to 0.928, p=0.017), cardiovascular disease (HR 2.161, 95% CI 1.089 to 4.287, p=0.027) and triglyceride (HR 0.751, 95% CI 0.591 to 0.955, p=0.020) as independent factors predicting psychological change. CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrated that very few patients with NAFLD presented psychological condition in the stage of action. Psychological condition was found to be significantly related to BMI, cardiovascular disease and triglyceride factors. Integrated diversity considerations for evaluating psychological change are necessary.

LAMP3 expression in the liver is involved in T cell activation and adaptive immune regulation in hepatitis B virus infection.

Background: The disease burden caused by chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is still heavy, and the current treatment scheme has not achieved a complete cure. Changes in natural and adaptive immunity usually accompany chronic HBV infection. As a marker expressed on dendritic cells (DCs), whether lysosome-associated membrane glycoprotein 3 (LAMP3) participates in chronic HBV infection deserves further analysis. Methods: We retrieved chronic HBV infection transcriptional information from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. The LAMP3 expression in the liver of patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) was analyzed in three GEO datasets and confirmed in our validation cohort (27 patients with CHB). Differentially expressed genes were obtained from one CHB cohort by comparing LAMP3high and LAMP3low expression subgroups. These genes underwent Gene Ontology, Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes analysis, and Gene Set Enrichment Analysis to decipher the influence of LAMP3 on the biological process and immunity changes in HBV infection. Furthermore, we investigated the potential relationship between LAMP3 levels, the abundance of infiltrating immune cells, and liver dysfunction. Results: Compared to healthy controls, LAMP3 expression was upregulated in the transcriptional profiles of the liver in patients with CHB. The high LAMP3 expression was related to T cell activation and the chemokine signaling pathway. The LAMP3 gene was positively linked to marker sets of infiltrating activated regulatory T cells (Treg), T cell exhaustion, monocytes, and DCs. Moreover, CHB patients with high LAMP3 expression had unfavorable liver dysfunction. Conclusions: LAMP3 is a gene related to HBV infection, which might be involved in HBV infection by regulating T cell activation and adaptive immune response.

Quantitative image-based collagen structural features predict the reversibility of hepatitis C virus-induced liver fibrosis post antiviral therapies.

The novel targeted therapeutics for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in last decade solved most of the clinical needs for this disease. However, despite antiviral therapies resulting in sustained virologic response (SVR), a challenge remains where the stage of liver fibrosis in some patients remains unchanged or even worsens, with a higher risk of cirrhosis, known as the irreversible group. In this study, we provided novel tissue level collagen structural insight into early prediction of irreversible cases via image based computational analysis with a paired data cohort (of pre- and post-SVR) following direct-acting-antiviral (DAA)-based treatment. Two Photon Excitation and Second Harmonic Generation microscopy was used to image paired biopsies from 57 HCV patients and a fully automated digital collagen profiling platform was developed. In total, 41 digital image-based features were profiled where four key features were discovered to be strongly associated with fibrosis reversibility. The data was validated for prognostic value by prototyping predictive models based on two selected features: Collagen Area Ratio and Collagen Fiber Straightness. We concluded that collagen aggregation pattern and collagen thickness are strong indicators of liver fibrosis reversibility. These findings provide the potential implications of collagen structural features from DAA-based treatment and paves the way for a more comprehensive early prediction of reversibility using pre-SVR biopsy samples to enhance timely medical interventions and therapeutic strategies. Our findings on DAA-based treatment further contribute to the understanding of underline governing mechanism and knowledge base of structural morphology in which the future non-invasive prediction solution can be built upon.

Characteristic gene expression in the liver monocyte-macrophage-DC system is associated with the progression of fibrosis in NASH.

Background: The monocyte-macrophage-dendritic cell (DC) (MMD) system exerts crucial functions that may modulate fibrogenesis in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). In this study, we explored the cell characteristics, distribution and developmental trajectory of the liver MMD system in NASH mice with fibrosis and clarified characteristic genes of the MMD system involved in liver fibrosis progression in NASH mice and patients. Methods: Single cells in liver tissue samples from NASH and normal mice were quantified using single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) analysis. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in the MMD system by pseudotime analysis were validated by tyramide signal amplification (TSA)-immunohistochemical staining (IHC) and analyzed by second harmonic generation (SHG)/two-photon excitation fluorescence (TPEF). Results: Compared with control mice, there were increased numbers of monocytes, Kupffer cells, and DCs in two NASH mouse models. From the transcriptional profiles of these single cells, we identified 8 monocyte subsets (Mono1-Mono8) with different molecular and functional properties. Furthermore, the pseudotime analysis showed that Mono5 and Mono6 were at the beginning of the trajectory path, whereas Mono2, Mono4, Kupffer cells and DCs were at a terminal state. Genes related to liver collagen production were at the late stage of this trajectory path. DEGs analysis revealed that the genes Fmnl1 and Myh9 in the MMD system were gradually upregulated during the trajectory. By TSA-IHC, the Fmnl1 and Myh9 expression levels were increased and associated with collagen production and fibrosis stage in NASH mice and patients. Conclusions: Our transcriptome data provide a novel landscape of the MMD system that is involved in advanced NASH disease status. Fmnl1 and Myh9 expression in the MMD system was associated with the progression of NASH fibrosis.

The burden of hepatitis C virus in the world, China, India, and the United States from 1990 to 2019.

Background and aim: Hepatitis C virus infection can lead to an enormous health burden worldwide. Investigating the changes in HCV-related burden between different countries could provide inferences for disease management. Hence, we aim to explore the temporal tendency of the disease burden associated with HCV infection in China, India, the United States, and the world. Methods: Detailed data on the total burden of disease related to HCV infection were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. Joinpoint regression models were used to simulate the optimal joinpoints of annual percent changes (APCs). Further analysis of the age composition of each index over time and the relationship between ASRs and the socio-demographic Index (SDI) were explored. Finally, three factors (population growth, population aging, and age-specific changes) were deconstructed for the changes in the number of incidences, deaths, and DALYs. Results: It was estimated that 6.2 million new HCV infections, 0.54 million HCV-related deaths, and 15.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2019, with an increase of 25.4, 59.1, and 43.6%, respectively, from 1990, are mainly due to population growth and aging. China experienced a sharp drop in age-standardized rates in 2019, the United States showed an upward trend, and India exhibited a fluctuating tendency in the burden of disease. The incidence was increasing in all locations recently. Conclusion: HCV remains a global health concern despite tremendous progress being made. The disease burden in China improved significantly, while the burden in the United States was deteriorating, with new infections increasing recently, suggesting more targeted interventions to be established to realize the 2030 elimination goals.

Burden of liver complications related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in China from 2005 to 2019: Observations from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2019.

AIM: To assess the burden of liver complications related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (LC-NAFLD) from 2005 to 2019 in China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used data from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, 2019, to present contemporary and varying profiles of China's LC-NAFLD burden. The Joinpoint Regression model and Gaussian process regression were, respectively, used to estimate the annual percentage change in prevalence rates and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates, and the relationship between the sociodemographic index (SDI) and age-standardized rates of LC-NAFLD. RESULTS: In 2019, China had 293.42 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 263.69-328.44) LC-NAFLD cases with a prevalence rate and DALYs of 20.63 (95% UI: 23.09-18.54) per 1000 people and 591.03 thousand (95% UI: 451.25-737.33), respectively. North China had the highest prevalence but the lowest DALYs of LC-NAFLD, whereas Southwest China had the lowest prevalence but the highest DALYs. LC-NAFLD were more common in men than in women (male: female ratio, 1.27) in 2019. From 2005 to 2019, the prevalence of NAFLD cases increased by 68.32% (from 174.32 million in 2005 to 293.42 million in 2019), mainly because of an age-specific prevalence rate increase. CONCLUSION: The LC-NAFLD burden in China is substantial and has increased markedly over the past 15 years. Effective measures for low SDI regions and men are needed to address the rapidly increasing NAFLD burden.