Yeast population dynamics in Brazilian bioethanol production.

The large-scale and nonaseptic fermentation of sugarcane feedstocks into fuel ethanol in biorefineries represents a unique ecological niche, in which the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae is the predominant organism. Several factors, such as sugarcane variety, process design, and operating and weather conditions, make each of the ∼400 industrial units currently operating in Brazil a unique ecosystem. Here, we track yeast population dynamics in 2 different biorefineries through 2 production seasons (April to November of 2018 and 2019), using a novel statistical framework on a combination of metagenomic and clonal sequencing data. We find that variation from season to season in 1 biorefinery is small compared to the differences between the 2 units. In 1 biorefinery, all lineages present during the entire production period derive from 1 of the starter strains, while in the other, invading lineages took over the population and displaced the starter strain. However, despite the presence of invading lineages and the nonaseptic nature of the process, all yeast clones we isolated are phylogenetically related to other previously sequenced bioethanol yeast strains, indicating a common origin from this industrial niche. Despite the substantial changes observed in yeast populations through time in each biorefinery, key process indicators remained quite stable through both production seasons, suggesting that the process is robust to the details of these population dynamics.

Barcoded bulk QTL mapping reveals highly polygenic and epistatic architecture of complex traits in yeast.

Mapping the genetic basis of complex traits is critical to uncovering the biological mechanisms that underlie disease and other phenotypes. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in humans and quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping in model organisms can now explain much of the observed heritability in many traits, allowing us to predict phenotype from genotype. However, constraints on power due to statistical confounders in large GWAS and smaller sample sizes in QTL studies still limit our ability to resolve numerous small-effect variants, map them to causal genes, identify pleiotropic effects across multiple traits, and infer non-additive interactions between loci (epistasis). Here, we introduce barcoded bulk quantitative trait locus (BB-QTL) mapping, which allows us to construct, genotype, and phenotype 100,000 offspring of a budding yeast cross, two orders of magnitude larger than the previous state of the art. We use this panel to map the genetic basis of eighteen complex traits, finding that the genetic architecture of these traits involves hundreds of small-effect loci densely spaced throughout the genome, many with widespread pleiotropic effects across multiple traits. Epistasis plays a central role, with thousands of interactions that provide insight into genetic networks. By dramatically increasing sample size, BB-QTL mapping demonstrates the potential of natural variants in high-powered QTL studies to reveal the highly polygenic, pleiotropic, and epistatic architecture of complex traits.

Phenotypic and molecular evolution across 10,000 generations in laboratory budding yeast populations.

Laboratory experimental evolution provides a window into the details of the evolutionary process. To investigate the consequences of long-term adaptation, we evolved 205 Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations (124 haploid and 81 diploid) for ~10,000,000 generations in three environments. We measured the dynamics of fitness changes over time, finding repeatable patterns of declining adaptability. Sequencing revealed that this phenotypic adaptation is coupled with a steady accumulation of mutations, widespread genetic parallelism, and historical contingency. In contrast to long-term evolution in E. coli, we do not observe long-term coexistence or populations with highly elevated mutation rates. We find that evolution in diploid populations involves both fixation of heterozygous mutations and frequent loss-of-heterozygosity events. Together, these results help distinguish aspects of evolutionary dynamics that are likely to be general features of adaptation across many systems from those that are specific to individual organisms and environmental conditions.

High-resolution lineage tracking reveals travelling wave of adaptation in laboratory yeast.

In rapidly adapting asexual populations, including many microbial pathogens and viruses, numerous mutant lineages often compete for dominance within the population1-5. These complex evolutionary dynamics determine the outcomes of adaptation, but have been difficult to observe directly. Previous studies have used whole-genome sequencing to follow molecular adaptation6-10; however, these methods have limited resolution in microbial populations. Here we introduce a renewable barcoding system to observe evolutionary dynamics at high resolution in laboratory budding yeast. We find nested patterns of interference and hitchhiking even at low frequencies. These events are driven by the continuous appearance of new mutations that modify the fates of existing lineages before they reach substantial frequencies. We observe how the distribution of fitness within the population changes over time, and find a travelling wave of adaptation that has been predicted by theory11-17. We show that clonal competition creates a dynamical 'rich-get-richer' effect: fitness advantages that are acquired early in evolution drive clonal expansions, which increase the chances of acquiring future mutations. However, less-fit lineages also routinely leapfrog over strains of higher fitness. Our results demonstrate that this combination of factors, which is not accounted for in existing models of evolutionary dynamics, is critical in determining the rate, predictability and molecular basis of adaptation.

Chaos and the (un)predictability of evolution in a changing environment.

Among the factors that may reduce the predictability of evolution, chaos, characterized by a strong dependence on initial conditions, has received much less attention than randomness due to genetic drift or environmental stochasticity. It was recently shown that chaos in phenotypic evolution arises commonly under frequency-dependent selection caused by competitive interactions mediated by many traits. This result has been used to argue that chaos should often make evolutionary dynamics unpredictable. However, populations also evolve largely in response to external changing environments, and such environmental forcing is likely to influence the outcome of evolution in systems prone to chaos. We investigate how a changing environment causing oscillations of an optimal phenotype interacts with the internal dynamics of an eco-evolutionary system that would be chaotic in a constant environment. We show that strong environmental forcing can improve the predictability of evolution by reducing the probability of chaos arising, and by dampening the magnitude of chaotic oscillations. In contrast, weak forcing can increase the probability of chaos, but it also causes evolutionary trajectories to track the environment more closely. Overall, our results indicate that, although chaos may occur in evolution, it does not necessarily undermine its predictability.