Assessing freedom from chronic wasting disease in semi-domesticated reindeer in Norway and Sweden.

Establishing freedom from disease is a key component of surveillance and may have direct consequences for trade and economy. Transboundary populations pose challenges in terms of variable legislation, efforts, and data availability between countries, often limiting surveillance efficiency. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a contagious prion disease of cervids. The long incubation period and slow initial epidemic growth make it notoriously difficult to detect CWD in the early phase of an epidemic. The recent emergence of CWD in wild reindeer in Norway poses a threat to approximately 250,000 semi-domesticated reindeer in Norway and 250,000 in Sweden, including transboundary populations. Here, we provide a first analysis of surveillance data (2016-2022) from all reindeer districts in Norway and Sweden to determine the probability of freedom from CWD infection. During the six years, 6017 semi-domesticated reindeer were tested in Sweden and 51,974 in Norway. Most samples came from healthy slaughtered animals (low risk). Reindeer use large and remote areas and (high risk) samples from fallen stock and animals with clinical signs were difficult to obtain. A scenario tree model was run for seven different set of values for the input parameters (design prevalence within and between districts, probability of introduction, and relative risks) to determine the effect on surveillance sensitivity. At the national level, the mean probability of disease freedom was 59.0 % in Sweden and 87.0 % in Norway by 2021. The most marked effect on sensitivity was varying the design prevalence both within and between districts. Uncertainty about relative risk ratios affected sensitivity for Sweden more than for Norway, due to the higher proportion of animals in the high-risk group in the former (13.8 % vs. 2.1 %, respectively). A probability of disease freedom of 90 % or higher was reached in 8.2 % of the 49 districts in Sweden and 43.5 % of the 46 districts in Norway for a design prevalence of 0.5 %. The probability of freedom remained below 60 % in 29 districts (59.2 %) in Sweden and 10 districts (21.7 %) in Norway. At the national level, only Norway had a sufficiently large number of samples to reach a probability of more than 95 % of disease freedom within a period of 10 years. Our cross-border assessment forms an important knowledge base for designing future surveillance efforts depending on the spatial pattern of prevalence of CWD and risk of spread.

Review state-of-the-art of output-based methodological approaches for substantiating freedom from infection.

A wide variety of control and surveillance programmes that are designed and implemented based on country-specific conditions exists for infectious cattle diseases that are not regulated. This heterogeneity renders difficult the comparison of probabilities of freedom from infection estimated from collected surveillance data. The objectives of this review were to outline the methodological and epidemiological considerations for the estimation of probabilities of freedom from infection from surveillance information and review state-of-the-art methods estimating the probabilities of freedom from infection from heterogeneous surveillance data. Substantiating freedom from infection consists in quantifying the evidence of absence from the absence of evidence. The quantification usually consists in estimating the probability of observing no positive test result, in a given sample, assuming that the infection is present at a chosen (low) prevalence, called the design prevalence. The usual surveillance outputs are the sensitivity of surveillance and the probability of freedom from infection. A variety of factors influencing the choice of a method are presented; disease prevalence context, performance of the tests used, risk factors of infection, structure of the surveillance programme and frequency of testing. The existing methods for estimating the probability of freedom from infection are scenario trees, Bayesian belief networks, simulation methods, Bayesian prevalence estimation methods and the STOC free model. Scenario trees analysis is the current reference method for proving freedom from infection and is widely used in countries that claim freedom. Bayesian belief networks and simulation methods are considered extensions of scenario trees. They can be applied to more complex surveillance schemes and represent complex infection dynamics. Bayesian prevalence estimation methods and the STOC free model allow freedom from infection estimation at the herd-level from longitudinal surveillance data, considering risk factor information and the structure of the population. Comparison of surveillance outputs from heterogeneous surveillance programmes for estimating the probability of freedom from infection is a difficult task. This paper is a 'guide towards substantiating freedom from infection' that describes both all assumptions-limitations and available methods that can be applied in different settings.

Sporadic cases of chronic wasting disease in old moose - an epidemiological study.

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies or prion diseases comprise diseases with different levels of contagiousness under natural conditions. The hypothesis has been raised that the chronic wasting disease (CWD) cases detected in Nordic moose (Alces alces) may be less contagious, or not contagious between live animals under field conditions. This study aims to investigate the epidemiology of CWD cases detected in moose in Norway, Sweden and Finland using surveillance data from 2016 to 2022.In total, 18 CWD cases were detected in Nordic moose. All moose were positive for prion (PrPres) detection in the brain, but negative in lymph nodes, all were old (mean 16 years; range 12-20) and all except one, were female. Age appeared to be a strong risk factor, and the sex difference may be explained by few males reaching high age due to hunting targeting calves, yearlings and males.The cases were geographically scattered, distributed over 15 municipalities. However, three cases were detected in each of two areas, Selbu in Norway and Arjeplog-Arvidsjaur in Sweden. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was applied to investigate the likelihood of such clustering occurring by chance, given the assumption of a non-contagious disease. The empirical P-value for obtaining three cases in one Norwegian municipality was less than 0.05, indicating clustering. However, the moose in Selbu were affected by different CWD strains, and over a 6 year period with intensive surveillance, the apparent prevalence decreased, which would not be expected for an ongoing outbreak of CWD. Likewise, the three cases in Arjeplog-Arvidsjaur could also indicate clustering, but management practices promotes a larger proportion of old females and the detection of the first CWD case contributed to increased awareness and sampling.The results of our study show that the CWD cases detected so far in Nordic moose have a different epidemiology compared to CWD cases reported from North America and in Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus). The results support the hypothesis that these cases are less contagious or not contagious between live animals under field conditions. To enable differentiation from other types of CWD, we support the use of sporadic CWD (sCWD) among the names already in use.

Comparison of Multiple-Locus Variable-Number Tandem Repeat Analysis Profiles of Enteropathogenic Yersinia spp. Obtained from Humans, Domestic Pigs, Wild Boars, Rodents, Pork and Dog Food.

The enteropathogenic Yersinia genus is commonly detected in wildlife including wild boars. Difficulties in its cultivation may hamper subsequent epidemiological studies and outbreak investigations. Multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) of Yersinia (Y.) enterocolitica and Y. pseudotuberculosis has proven useful in source attribution and epidemiological studies but has hitherto relied on the analysis of isolates. In the present study, MLVA profiles generated from 254 isolates of Y. enterocolitica indicated similarities between human, pig and rodent isolates. Further, MLVA analyses of 13 Y. pseudotuberculosis pure-cultured isolates were compared to MLVA analyses performed directly on the 14 PCR-positive enrichment broths from which the isolates originated, which showed matching MLVA profiles. This indicates that MLVA analysis performed directly on enrichment broths could be a useful method for molecular epidemiological investigations. In addition, 10 out of 32 samples of wild boar minced meat obtained from private hunters and from approved wild-game-handling establishments were PCR-positive for the presence of Y. enterocolitica and may indicate a risk for public health.

Classification of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome clinical impact in Ontario sow herds using machine learning approaches.

Since the early 1990s, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus outbreaks have been reported across various parts of North America, Europe, and Asia. The incursion of PRRS virus (PRRSV) in swine herds could result in various clinical manifestations, resulting in a substantial impact on the incidence of respiratory morbidity, reproductive loss, and mortality. Veterinary experts, among others, regularly analyze the PRRSV open reading frame-5 (ORF-5) for prognostic purposes to assess the risk of severe clinical outcomes. In this study, we explored if predictive modeling techniques could be used to identify the severity of typical clinical signs observed during PRRS outbreaks in sow herds. Our study aimed to evaluate four baseline machine learning (ML) algorithms: logistic regression (LR) with ridge and lasso regularization techniques, random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), and support vector machine (SVM), for the clinical impact classification of ORF-5 sequences and demographic data into high impact and low impact categories. First, baseline classifiers were evaluated using different input representations of ORF-5 nucleotides, amino acid sequences, and demographic data using a 10-fold cross-validation technique. Then, we designed a consensus voting ensemble approach to aggregate the different types of input representations for genetic and demographic data for classifying clinical impact. In this study, we observed that: (a) for abortion and pre-weaning mortality (PWM), different classifiers gained improvement over baseline accuracy, which showed the plausible presence of both genotypic-phenotypic and demographic-phenotypic relationships, (b) for sow mortality (SM), no baseline classifier successfully established such linkages using either genetic or demographic input data, (c) baseline classifiers showed good performance with a moderate variance of the performance metrics, due to high-class overlap and the small dataset size used for training, and (d) the use of consensus voting ensemble techniques helped to make the predictions more robust and stabilized the performance evaluation metrics, but overall accuracy did not substantially improve the diagnostic metrics over baseline classifiers.

Survival of livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus CC398 on different surface materials.

BACKGROUND: Zoonotic livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) is widely spread in pig herds in many countries. However, the knowledge regarding the survival of LA-MRSA in the pig farm environment is currently limited. The aim of this study was to assess the survival of LA-MRSA on different surface materials found in the farm environment. The study investigated the survival of two different LA-MRSA strains belonging to the clonal complex (CC) 398 on four different surfaces: stainless steel, polypropylene plastic, K30 concrete and commercial concrete disk coupons. The survival of the bacteria over time was determined by the viable count method and, where possible, fitting a model to the observed data by using nonlinear least squares method to calculate the half-life ([Formula: see text]) for different strain and material combinations. RESULTS: The study showed that the half-life of the bacteria was longer on polypropylene plastic ([Formula: see text]=11.08-15.78 days) than on stainless steel ([Formula: see text]=2.45-7.83 days). On these materials, both LA-MRSA strains survived through the 14 week observation period. The bacterial decay was fastest on the concrete surfaces, where LA-MRSA became undetectable after 3-9 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: The survival of LA-MRSA in the pig farm environment may be affected by different surface materials. A more frequent sampling protocol (< 7 days) is needed to determine the half-life on concrete surfaces.

Data workflows and visualization in support of surveillance practice.

The Swedish National Veterinary Institute (SVA) is working on implementing reusable and adaptable workflows for epidemiological analysis and dynamic report generation to improve disease surveillance. Important components of this work include: data access, development environment, computational resources and cloud-based management. The development environment relies on Git for code collaboration and version control and the R language for statistical computing and data visualization. The computational resources include both local and cloud-based systems, with automatic workflows managed in the cloud. The workflows are designed to be flexible and adaptable to changing data sources and stakeholder demands, with the ultimate goal to create a robust infrastructure for the delivery of actionable epidemiological information.

Modelling spread and surveillance of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in the Swedish cattle trade network.

To monitor a state of disease freedom and to ensure a timely detection of new introductions of disease, surveillance programmes need be evaluated prior to implementation. We present a strategy to evaluate surveillance of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) using simulated testing of bulk milk in an infectious disease spread model. MAP is a globally distributed, chronic infectious disease with substantial animal health impact. Designing surveillance for this disease poses specific challenges because methods for surveillance evaluation have focused on estimating surveillance system sensitivity and probability of freedom from disease and do not account for spread of disease or complex and changing population structure over long periods. The aims of the study were to 1. define a model that describes the spread of MAP within and between Swedish herds; 2. define a method for simulation of imperfect diagnostic testing in this framework; 3. to compare surveillance strategies to support surveillance design choices. The results illustrate how this approach can be used to identify differences between the probability of detecting disease in the population based on choices of the number of herds sampled and the use of risk-based or random selection of these herds. The approach was also used to assess surveillance to detect introduction of disease and to detect a very low prevalence endemic state. The use of bulk milk sampling was determined to be an effective method to detect MAP in the population with as few as 500 herds tested per year if the herd-level prevalence was 0.2 %. However, detection of point introductions in the population was unlikely in the 13-year simulation period even if as many as 2000 herds were tested per year. Interestingly, the use of a risk-based selection strategy was found to be a disadvantage to detect MAP given the modelled disease dynamics.

Mechanistic modelling of interventions against spread of livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) within a Danish farrow-to-finish pig herd.

Knowledge on successful interventions against livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) within pig herds is sparse. In situations like this, a mechanistic simulation model can be a valuable tool for assessing the effect of potential intervention strategies, and prioritising which should be tested in the field. We have simulated on-farm interventions in a farrow-to-finish pig herd, with a previously published LA-MRSA spread model, within four different areas: 1) Reduced antimicrobial consumption, 2) Reduced number of pigs within each section, 3) Reduced mixing of pigs, and 4) Improved internal biosecurity. To model a decrease in the selective pressure, the transmission rates were reduced after LA-MRSA had become fully established within a herd, which resulted in a marked decrease in the prevalence within all stable units. However, LA-MRSA rarely disappeared completely from the herd; this was only observed in scenarios where the transmission rates were reduced to ≤ 30% of the original level. While changes in antimicrobial consumption patterns might be a very important step towards reducing the spread of LA-MRSA, the simulation results indicate that it may need to be paired with other preventive or intervention measures. Reducing the number of pigs within each section, reducing mixing of pigs, or improving internal biosecurity after LA-MRSA had become established within the herd only resulted in marginal changes in the median prevalence within the herd. However, these factors might be important in relation to being able to achieve or maintain a low level of antimicrobial consumption, and thus still indirectly influence the LA-MRSA prevalence within the herd. The results of a sensitivity analysis indicated the assumptions regarding the existence of pigs persistently shedding MRSA have a noticeable influence on the model results. The assumptions regarding transmission from sow to offspring at the day of birth also had a considerable influence on the MRSA prevalence within the farrowing unit but did not cause any marked changes in the simulated effect of interventions. Effects might differ between different farm types contaminated in different levels and this simulation study highlights a strong need for more knowledge from on-farm trials.

Distribution of enteropathogenic Yersinia spp. and Salmonella spp. in the Swedish wild boar population, and assessment of risk factors that may affect their prevalence.

BACKGROUND: Pure Eurasian wild boars and/or hybrids with domestic pigs are present in the wild on most continents. These wild pigs have been demonstrated to carry a large number of zoonotic and epizootic pathogens such as Salmonella spp., Yersinia enterocolitica and Y. pseudotuberculosis. Wild boar populations throughout Europe are growing and more and more wild boar meat is being consumed, the majority within the homes of hunters without having passed a veterinary inspection. The aim of this study was to investigate if factors such as population density, level of artificial feeding, time since establishment of a given population, and the handling of animal by-products from slaughtered animals could influence the presence of these pathogens in the wild boar. RESULTS: In total, 90 wild boars from 30 different populations in Sweden were sampled and analysed using a protocol combining pre-cultivation and PCR-detection. The results showed that 27% of the sampled wild boars were positive for Salmonella spp., 31% were positive for Y. enterocolitica and 22% were positive for Y. pseudotuberculosis. In 80% of the sampled populations, at least one wild boar was positive for one of these enteropathogens and in total, 60% of the animals carried at least one of the investigated enteropathogens. The presumptive risk factors were analysed using a case-control approach, however, no significant associations were found. CONCLUSION: Human enteropathogens are commonly carried by wild boars, mainly in the tonsils, and can thus constitute a risk for contamination of the carcass and meat during slaughter. Based on the present results, the effect of reducing population densities and number of artificial feeding places might be limited.

Prevalence of human pathogenic Yersinia enterocolitica in Swedish pig farms.

BACKGROUND: Pigs are the most important reservoir for human pathogenic Yersinia enterocolitica. We investigated the herd prevalence of human pathogenic Y. enterocolitica in Swedish pig farms by analysing pen faecal samples using a cold enrichment of 1 week and thereafter subsequent plating onto chromogenic selective media (CAY agar). RESULTS: Pathogenic Y. enterocolitica was found in 32 (30.5%) of the 105 sampled farms with finisher pigs. Bioserotype 4/O:3 was identified at all but one farm, where 2/O:9 was identified. Pen-prevalence within the positive herds varied from 1/4 to 4/4 pens. The calculated intra-class correlation coefficient ICC (0.89) from a model with a random effect for grouping within herd indicated a very high degree of clustering by herd. None of the explored risk factors, including herd size, herd type, pig flow, feed type, access to outdoors, evidence of birds and rodents in the herd, usage of straw, number of pigs in sampled pen and age of pigs in pen were significantly associated with Y. enterocolitica status of the pen. The use of high pressure washing with cold water was significantly associated with Y. enterocolitica in the pen (OR = 84.77, 4.05-1772). Two culture methods were assessed for detection of Y. enterocolitica, one of which included the use of a chromogenic agar (CAY agar) intended for detection of human pathogenic Y. enterocolitica. The chromogenic media was found equal or superior to traditional methods and was used in this study. The isolates obtained were characterised by biotyping, serotyping, mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF) and PCR. Characterisation by MALDI-TOF gave identical results to that of conventional bioserotyping. All porcine isolates were positive for the ail and inv genes by PCR, indicating that the isolates were most likely pathogenic to humans. CONCLUSIONS: Human pathogenic Y. enterocolitica was found in nearly one-third of the Swedish pig farms with finisher pigs. The use of high pressure washing with cold water was associated with the presence of Y. enterocolitica in the pen. A modified culturing method using a chromogenic agar was efficient for detection of pathogenic Y. enterocolitica in pig faeces. The use of masspectrometry for identification and subtyping was in agreement with conventional biotyping and serotyping methods.

Epidemiology of Campylobacter jejuni infections in Sweden, November 2011-October 2012: is the severity of infection associated with C. jejuni sequence type?

BACKGROUND: Campylobacter jejuni is among the most frequent causes of bacterial gastroenteritis in Europe. Over 8,000 C. jejuni multilocus sequence typing sequence types (STs) have been described; ST-21 and ST-45 have been identified as the most frequent types in all human studies so far. In contrast to other STs, ST-22 has been associated with the Guillain-Barré syndrome and ST-677 was recently linked to severe systemic infections in Finland. We investigated risk factors associated with hospitalisation in individuals with C. jejuni infections acquired in Sweden. METHODS: A total of 1,075 individuals with domestically acquired C. jejuni infection diagnosed between November 2011 and October 2012 in Sweden were included in this retrospective cohort study. Typing data for the isolates as well as clinical data including hospitalisation dates and diagnosis codes for individuals with C. jejuni infection were obtained. Factors associated with hospitalisation and length of hospitalisation were investigated by multivariable analysis. RESULTS: A total of 289 individuals were hospitalised due to C. jejuni infection (26.8%); those with co-morbidities were over 14 times more likely to become hospitalised than those without (odds ratio [OR]: 14.39, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.84-30.26). Those with underlying co-morbidities were also hospitalised longer than those without (4.22 days vs. 2.86 days), although this was not statistically significant. C. jejuni ST-257 (OR: 2.38; CI: 1.08-5.23), but not ST-22 or ST-677, was significantly associated with hospitalisation. CONCLUSION: ST-677 was not associated with increased hospitalisation or a longer hospital stay in our study whilst ST-257 was. However, individuals with C. jejuni infections were generally more frequently hospitalised than previously demonstrated; this requires further consideration including possible targeted interventions.

Prevalence of thermophilic Campylobacter species in Swedish dogs and characterization of C. jejuni isolates.

BACKGROUND: The aims of this study were to investigate the prevalence of Campylobacter species in Swedish dogs, to identify the species of the Campylobacter isolates and to genotype the C. jejuni isolates. Young and healthy dogs were targeted and the sampling was performed at 11 veterinary clinics throughout Sweden from October 2011 to October 2012. Faecal swab samples were collected and sent to the laboratory at the National Veterinary Institute (SVA) for isolation of Campylobacter, speciation and genotyping. RESULTS: Campylobacter spp. were isolated from 67 of the 180 sampled dogs which yields an overall prevalence of 37%. The most prevalent species of Campylobacter among the participating dogs was C. upsaliensis with 52 of the 67 identified isolates. A lower prevalence was observed for C. jejuni with seven identified isolates and one isolate was identified as C. helveticus. Multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) was carried out on the seven C. jejuni isolates and all sequence types that were found are also commonly found in humans. The dogs were divided into three age groups; 1) under 12 months, 2) 12 to 23 months and 3) 24 months and older. The highest prevalence was found in the two younger age groups. Dogs shedding C. jejuni were between 3-12 months of age while dogs shedding C. upsaliensis were found in all ages. CONCLUSIONS: The present investigation finds that Campylobacter spp. known to cause campylobacteriosis in humans are present in Swedish dogs. The results suggest an age predisposition where dogs under 2 years of age are more likely to shed Campylobacter spp. than older dogs. The most commonly isolated species was C. upsaliensis followed by C. jejuni, which was only detected in dogs up to 12 months of age. All C. jejuni isolates identified in the present study were of the same MLST types that have previously been described both in humans and in animals. The awareness of the Campylobacter risk of healthy young dogs may be an important way to reduce the transmission from dogs to infants, young children and immunocompromised adults.

Association between the genetic similarity of the open reading frame 5 sequence of Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus and the similarity in clinical signs of Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome in Ontario swine herds.

A study of Ontario swine farms positive for Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) tested the association between genetic similarity of the virus and similarity of clinical signs reported by the herd owner. Herds were included if a positive result of polymerase chain reaction for PRRSV at the Animal Health Laboratory at the University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, was found between September 2004 and August 2007. Nucleotide-sequence similarity and clinical similarity, as determined from a telephone survey, were calculated for all pairs of herds. The Mantel test indicated that clinical similarity and sequence similarity were weakly correlated for most clinical signs. The generalized additive model indicated that virus homology with 2 vaccine viruses affected the association between sequence similarity and clinical similarity. When the data for herds with vaccine-like virus were removed from the dataset there was a significant association between virus similarity and similarity of the reported presence of abortion, stillbirth, preweaning mortality, and sow/boar mortality. Ownership similarity was also found to be associated with virus similarity and with similarity of the reported presence of sows being off-feed, nursery respiratory disease, nursery mortality, finisher respiratory disease, and finisher mortality. These results indicate that clinical signs of PRRS are associated with PRRSV genotype and that herd ownership is associated with both of these.

Une étude effectuée sur des fermes porcines ontariennes positives pour le virus du SRRP a testé l'association entre la similarité génétique des virus SRRP et la similarité des signes cliniques rapportés par le propriétaire des animaux. Les élevages pouvaient être inclus si un résultat positif par PCR pour le virus du SRRP avait été obtenu du Animal Health Laboratory de l'Université de Guelph entre les mois de septembre 2004 et août 2007. Les similarités des séquences virales et les similarités cliniques notées suite à une enquête ont été calculées pour chaque paire de troupeaux. Le test de Mantel indiquait que les similarités cliniques et les similarités virales étaient faiblement corrélées pour la plupart des signes cliniques. Le modèle additif généralisé indiquait que des virus homologues à deux virus vaccinaux affectaient l'association entre les similarités virales et les similarités cliniques. Lorsque les troupeaux avec les virus similaires aux vaccins furent retirés des données, il y avait une association significative entre les similarités virales et des similarités pour les avortements, les mort-nés, la mortalité pré-sevrage et la mortalité des truies et verrats. Les similarités de propriété ont également été déterminées comme étant associées avec les similarités virales et les similarités cliniques suivantes : truies sans appétit, maladies respiratoires en pouponnière, mortalité en pouponnière, maladies respiratoires chez les porcs en finition, et mortalités chez les porcs en finition. Ces résultats indiquent que les signes cliniques de SRRP sont associés avec le génotype du virus du SRRP et que la propriété du troupeau est associée avec ces deux éléments.(Traduit par Docteur Serge Messier).

Spatial and temporal patterns of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) genotypes in Ontario, Canada, 2004-2007.

BACKGROUND: The spread of PRRSV among pig herds has been investigated experimentally, but few observational studies have investigated this subject. Because PRRSV is endemic and live modified vaccines are used in Ontario, the spatial and temporal distributions of 6 PRRSV genotypes were investigated in the province during the period from 2004-2007. The purpose was to find evidence of spread of PRRSV genotypes and determine if spread could be attributed to supplier or ownership connections between herds. Sequence information from PRRSV ORF5 and related source-herd demographic information were obtained from diagnostic submissions to the Animal Health Laboratory, University of Guelph. RESULTS: A spatial cluster that could not be attributed to supplier or ownership connections among herds in the cluster was detected for RFLP type 1-3-4. Because of genetic dissimilarity among members of the cluster, it was considered to be a result of past spread of the RFLP type. A spatio-temporal cluster detected for RFLP type 1-18-4 was attributed to a shared gilt supplier among the herds in the cluster. Significant spatio-temporal patterns detected for RFLP type 2-5-2, which is considered to be a vaccine-type virus were most likely due to grouping of herds in an ownership that used the corresponding vaccine. Clustering within herd-ownership was a risk factor for presence of five of the six genotypes investigated in the present study. CONCLUSIONS: Although the literature indicates that PRRSV can spread via aerosol between pig herds, the present study found no strong evidence of this occurring in Ontario. The evidence pointed toward transmission of PRRSV occurring in this population by common sources of animals or similarity of herd ownership, which is a proxy measure for other connections between herds. It is also apparent that the recognition and testing of these connections between herds is a necessary part of interpreting spatio-temporal patterns of PRRSV genotypes.

Spread of porcine circovirus associated disease (PCVAD) in Ontario (Canada) swine herds: Part II. Matched case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of porcine circovirus associated disease (PCVAD) was associated with high mortality in swine populations worldwide. Studies performed in different regions identified spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal trends as factors contributing to patterns of the disease spread. Patterns consistent with spatial trend and spatio-temporal clustering were already identified in this dataset. On the basis of these results, we have further investigated the nature of local spread in this report. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate risk factors for incidence cases of reported PCVAD. RESULTS: A time-matched case-control study was used as a study design approach, and conditional logistic regression as the analytical method. The main exposure of interest was local spread, which was defined as an unidentified mechanism of PCVAD spread between premises located within 3 kilometers of the Euclidean distance. Various modifications of variables indicative of local spread were also evaluated. The dataset contained 278 swine herds from Ontario originally sampled either from diagnostic laboratory submissions or directly from the target population. A PCVAD case was defined on the basis of the producer's recall. Existence of apparent local spread over the entire study period was confirmed (OR = 2.26, 95% CI: 1.06, 4.83), and was further identified to be time-varying in nature - herds experiencing outbreaks in the later part of the epidemic were more likely than control herds to be exposed to neighboring herds experiencing recent PCVAD outbreaks. More importantly, the pattern of local spread was driven by concurrent occurrence of PCVAD on premises under the same ownership (OREXACTwithin ownership = 25.6, 95% CI: 3.4, +inf; OREXACToutside ownership = 1.3, 95% CI: 0.45, 3.3). Other significant factors included PRRSv status of a herd (OREXACT = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.0, 3.9), after adjusting for geographical location by including the binary effect of the easting coordinate (Easting > 600 km = 1; OREXACT = 1.8, 95% CI: 0.5, 5.6). CONCLUSIONS: These results preclude any conclusion regarding the existence of a mechanism of local spread through airborne transmission or indirectly through contaminated fomites or vectors, as simultaneous emergence of PCVAD could also be a result of concurrent change in contributing factors due to other mechanisms within ownerships.

Spread of porcine circovirus associated disease (PCVAD) in Ontario (Canada) swine herds: Part I. Exploratory spatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: The systemic form of porcine circovirus associated disease (PCVAD), also known as postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) was initially detected in the early 1990s. Starting in 2004, the Canadian swine industry experienced considerable losses due to PCVAD, concurrent with a shift in genotype of porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2). Objectives of the current study were to explore spatial characteristics of self-reported PCVAD distribution in Ontario between 2004 and 2008, and to investigate the existence and nature of local spread. RESULTS: The study included 278 swine herds from a large disease-monitoring project that included porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus-positive herds identified by the diagnostic laboratory, and PRRS virus-negative herds directly from the target population. Herds were included if they had growing pigs present on-site and available geographical coordinates for the sampling site. Furthermore, herds were defined as PCVAD-positive if a producer reported an outbreak of circovirus associated disease, or as PCVAD-negative if no outbreak was noted. Spatial trend was investigated using generalized additive models and time to PCVAD outbreak in a herd using Cox's proportional hazard model; spatial and spatio-temporal clustering was explored using K-functions; and location of most likely spatial and spatio-temporal clusters was investigated using scan statistics. Over the study period, the risk of reporting a PCVAD-positive herd tended to be higher in the eastern part of the province after adjustment for herd PRRS status (P = 0.05). This was partly confirmed for spread (Partial P < 0.01). Local spread also appeared to exist, as suggested by the tentative (P = 0.06) existence of spatio-temporal clustering of PCVAD and detection of a spatio-temporal cluster (P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In Ontario, PCVAD has shown a general trend, spreading from east-to-west. We interpret the existence of spatio-temporal clustering as evidence of spatio-temporal aggregation of PCVAD-positive cases above expectations and, together with the existence of spatio-temporal and spatial clusters, as suggestive of apparent local spread of PCVAD. Clustering was detected at small spatial and temporal scales. Other patterns of spread could not be detected; however, survival rates in discrete Ontario zones, as well as a lack of a clear spatial pattern in the most likely spatio-temporal clusters, suggest other between-herd transmission mechanisms.

Clinical signs and their association with herd demographics and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) control strategies in PRRS PCR-positive swine herds in Ontario.

The purposes of this study were to describe the clinical signs observed in PRRS positive herds during a porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) outbreak in Ontario and to determine associations between these clinical signs and herd demographics and PRRS control strategies. All PRRS polymerase chain reaction-(PCR)-positive submissions to a diagnostic laboratory between September 1, 2004 and August 31, 2007 were identified (n = 1864). After meeting eligibility requirements and agreeing to voluntary study participation, producers from 455 of these submissions were surveyed for information on clinical signs observed in their herds, herd demographics, and PRRS control strategies used in their herds at the time that the PCR-positive samples were taken. Larger herd size was associated with an increased risk of reporting abortion, weakborn piglets, off-feed sows, and sow mortality in sow herds, and with an increased risk of reporting mortality in finishing herds. When disease control strategies were examined, use of a commercial PRRS vaccine in sows and gilts was associated with a decreased risk of reporting weakborn pigs and high pre-weaning mortality, while the use of serum inoculation in breeding animals was associated with an increased risk of reporting off-feed sows and sow mortality. Providing biofeedback of stillborn/mummified piglets, placenta or feces to gilts was associated with an increased risk of reporting respiratory disease and mortality in finishing pigs while all-in/all-out flow in farrowing rooms was associated with an increased risk of reporting sow mortality and weakborn piglets.

Distribution of genotypes of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in Ontario during 2004-2007 and the association between genotype and clinical signs of disease.

Restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) was first proposed to classify porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) in 1998. The primary objective of this study was to identify associations between different PRRSV RFLP types in swine herds in southern Ontario and clinical signs of disease in those herds. Herds included in the study submitted samples to the Animal Health Laboratory at the University of Guelph between September 2004 and August 2007. Each farm owner was surveyed to describe the clinical disease in the herd and the RFLP pattern of an isolate of PRRSV was obtained from a diagnostic sample. The most frequent isolates were RFLP types 1_4 (25.1%), 252 (14.7%), 134 (12%), and 1_2 (7.7%). The distribution of RFLP types in this study was found to be different from a previous investigation in Ontario. Those RFLP types most associated with clinical disease in the farrowing phase of production were 1_4, 1_2, and 134. The only virus type to be significantly associated with disease in the finisher phase was RFLP type 262. During the study period RFLP type 184 emerged in the population in November 2005.

Prevalence of Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae, Actinobacillus suis, Haemophilus parasuis, Pasteurella multocida, and Streptococcus suis in representative Ontario swine herds.

Tonsillar and nasal swabs were collected from weanling pigs in 50 representative Ontario swine herds and tested for the presence of 5 important bacterial upper respiratory tract pathogens. All but 1 herd (2%) tested positive for Streptococcus suis by polymerase chain reaction (PCR); 48% of herds were S. suis serovar 2, 1/2 positive. In all but 2 herds there was evidence of Haemophilus parasuis infection. In contrast, toxigenic strains of Pasteurella multocida were detected by a P. multocida--enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay (PMT-ELISA) in only one herd. Seventy-eight percent of the herds were diagnosed positive for Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae by apxIV PCR. Sera from finishing pigs on the same farms were also collected and tested by ELISA for the presence of A. pleuropneumoniae antibodies. Seventy percent of the herds tested had evidence of antibodies to A. pleuropneumoniae including serovars 1-9-11 (2%), 2 (4%), 3-6-8-15 (15%), 5 (6%), 4-7 (26%), and 12 (17%). This likely represents a shift from previous years when infection with A. pleuropneumoniae serovars 1, 5, and 7 predominated. At least 16% and possibly as many as 94% of the herds tested were Actinobacillus suis positive; only 3 of the 50 herds were both A. pleuropneumoniae and A. suis negative as judged by the absence of a positive PCR test for apxII. Taken together, these data suggest that over the past 10 years, there has been a shift in the presence of pathogenic bacteria carried by healthy Ontario swine with the virtual elimination of toxigenic strains of P. multocida and a move to less virulent A. pleuropneumoniae serovars. As well, there appears to be an increase in prevalence of S. suis serovar 2, 1/2, but this may be a reflection of the use of a more sensitive detection method.