Quantitative assessment of observed versus predicted responses to selection.

Although artificial-selection experiments seem well suited to testing our ability to predict evolution, the correspondence between predicted and observed responses is often ambiguous due to the lack of uncertainty estimates. We present equations for assessing prediction error in direct and indirect responses to selection that integrate uncertainty in genetic parameters used for prediction and sampling effects during selection. Using these, we analyzed a selection experiment on floral traits replicated in two taxa of the Dalechampia scandens (Euphorbiaceae) species complex for which G-matrices were obtained from a diallel breeding design. After four episodes of bidirectional selection, direct and indirect responses remained within wide prediction intervals, but appeared different from the predictions. Combined analyses with structural-equation models confirmed that responses were asymmetrical and lower than predicted in both species. We show that genetic drift is likely to be a dominant source of uncertainty in typically-dimensioned selection experiments in plants and a major obstacle to predicting short-term evolutionary trajectories.

Hydrocarbon Patterns and Mating Behaviour in Populations of Drosophila yakuba.

Drosophila yakuba is widespread in Africa. Here we compare the cuticular hydrocarbon (CHC) profiles and mating behavior of mainland (Kounden, Cameroon) and island (Mayotte, Sao-Tome, Bioko) populations. The strains each had different CHC profiles: Bioko and Kounden were the most similar, while Mayotte and Sao-Tome contained significant amounts of 7-heptacosene. The CHC profile of the Sao-Tome population differed the most, with half the 7-tricosene of the other populations and more 7-heptacosene and 7-nonacosene. We also studied the characteristics of the mating behavior of the four strains: copulation duration was similar but latency times were higher in Mayotte and Sao-Tome populations. We found partial reproductive isolation between populations, especially in male-choice experiments with Sao-Tome females.

Evolution of morphological allometry.

Morphological allometry refers to patterns of covariance between body parts resulting from variation in body size. Whether measured during growth (ontogenetic allometry), among individuals at similar developmental stage (static allometry), or among populations or species (evolutionary allometry), allometric relationships are often tight and relatively invariant. Consequently, it has been suggested that allometries have low evolvability and could constrain phenotypic evolution by forcing evolving species along fixed trajectories. Alternatively, allometric relationships may result from natural selection for functional optimization. Despite nearly a century of active research, distinguishing between these alternatives remains difficult, partly due to wide differences in the meaning assigned to the term allometry. In particular, a broad use of the term, encompassing any monotonic relationship between body parts, has become common. This usage breaks the connection to the proportional growth regulation that motivated Huxley's original narrow-sense use of allometry to refer to power-law relationships between traits. Focusing on the narrow-sense definition of allometry, we review here evidence for and against the allometry-as-a-constraint hypothesis. Although the low evolvability and the evolutionary invariance of the static allometric slope observed in some studies suggest a possible constraining effect of this parameter on phenotypic evolution, the lack of knowledge about selection on allometry prevents firm conclusions.