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OBJECTIVES: to document existing geographical inequalities in health in the city of Milan (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy), examining the association between area socioeconomic disadvantage and health outcomes, with the aim to suggest policy action to tackle them. DESIGN: the analysis used an ecological framework; multiple health indicators were considered in the analysis; socioeconomic disadvantage was measured through indicators such as low education, unemployment, immigration status, and housing crowding. For each municipal statistical area, Bayesian Relative Risks of the outcomes (using the Besag-Yorkand-Mollié model) were plotted on the city map. To evaluate the association between social determinants and health outcomes, Spearman correlation coefficients were estimated. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: residents in the City of Milan aged between 30 and 75 years who were residing in Milan as of 01.01.2019, grouped in 88 statistical areas. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: all-cause mortality, type-2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, neoplasms, respiratory diseases, metabolic syndrome, antidepressants use, polypharmacy, and multimorbidity. RESULTS: the results consistently demonstrated a significant association between socioeconomic disadvantage and various health outcomes, with low education exhibiting the strongest correlations. Neoplasms displayed an inverse social gradient, while the relationship with antidepressant use varied. CONCLUSIONS: these findings provide valuable insights into the distribution of health inequalities in Milan and contribute to the existing literature on the social determinants of health. The study highlights the need for targeted interventions to address disparities and promote equitable health outcomes. The results can serve to inform the development of effective public health strategies and policies aimed at reducing health inequalities in the city.
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Disparidades en el Estado de Salud , Factores Socioeconómicos , Humanos , Italia/epidemiología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Adulto , Masculino , Femenino , Determinantes Sociales de la Salud , Teorema de BayesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: according to the International Agency for Cancer Research on Cancer, in 2022, breast cancer is the most common cancer in the Italian population, followed by colorectal cancer. Oncological screenings represent an effective secondary prevention strategy to counteract colorectal and breast cancers, significantly reducing mortality. In Lombardy Region (Northern Italy), screening programmes have been active since 2007, but adherence, especially in specific population subgroups, remains lower than expected. OBJECTIVES: to analyse potential predictors of non-adherence to colorectal and breast cancer screening in the Lombardy Region during the pre-pandemic period of 2018-2019. DESIGN: a retrospective cohort study aimed at investigating the role of sociodemographic variables, health status, and access to the healthcare system on non-adherence to colorectal and breast cancer screening. Statistical analyses were conducted separately by each Agency for Health Protection (ATS). The results of the models were synthesized across the Lombardy region through random-effects meta-analysis. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: residents within the territory of each ATS in Lombardy as of 01.01.2018 and aged between 49 and 69 years at the beginning of the follow-up. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: adherence to colorectal and breast cancer screenings. RESULTS: during the study period, across the Lombardy Region, 2,820,138 individuals were eligible to participate in colorectal cancer screening, and 1,357,344 women were eligible to participate in breast cancer screening, with an invitation coverage of 87% and 86%, respectively.For breast cancer screening, older age, cardiopathy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), autoimmune diseases, and presence of a rare disease are associated with a reduced risk of non-adherence. Conversely, foreign citizenship, oncological diagnosis, transplant, chronic kidney disease/dialysis, diabetes, heart failure, arterial or cerebral vasculopathy, and presence of a neurological diagnosis are associated with significant excess risks of non-participation. For colorectal cancer screening, factors favouring adherence include female gender, older age, cardiopathy, COPD, autoimmune diseases, and having access/utilization of primary care. Non-adherence is associated with foreign citizenship, transplant, chronic kidney disease/dialysis, diabetes, heart failure, arterial or cerebral vasculopathy, IBD, neurological diseases, residence in assisted living facilities, use of integrated home care, and presence of disability. CONCLUSIONS: this is the first study conducted in the Lombardy Region which explores the theme of equity of access to organized screenings. This analysis highlights how sociodemographic determinants, chronic conditions, and access to the healthcare and social healthcare system constitute significant risk factors for non-adherence to screening programmes. Based on the results of this analysis, communication and/or organizational change interventions will be developed to counteract inequalities in access to effective prevention procedures.
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Neoplasias de la Mama , Neoplasias Colorrectales , Detección Precoz del Cáncer , Humanos , Italia/epidemiología , Neoplasias de la Mama/diagnóstico , Neoplasias de la Mama/prevención & control , Neoplasias de la Mama/epidemiología , Neoplasias Colorrectales/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorrectales/prevención & control , Neoplasias Colorrectales/epidemiología , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Retrospectivos , Anciano , Detección Precoz del Cáncer/estadística & datos numéricos , Masculino , Tamizaje Masivo/estadística & datos numéricos , Cooperación del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Pandemias , Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Estudios de CohortesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: there is growing evidence that exposure to environmental pollutants affects health, including mortality, chronic diseases, and acute diseases. The World Health Organisation has recently revised downwards the safety thresholds for exposure to environmental pollutants. The City of Milan (CoM) has particularly high levels of pollution; this is due both to the presence of various emission sources and to climatic and orographic conditions. OBJECTIVES: to describe the health effects of exposure to pollutants, measured by deaths due to environmental exposure to NO2, PM10, and PM2.5 in 2019. DESIGN: observational study. Using a pollutant concentration estimation model, annual mean values of NO2, PM10, and PM2.5 were estimated for the CoM in 2019. The number of deaths attributable to each exposure was estimated using risk functions available in the literature; the values recommended by the new World Health Organisation guidelines were used as counterfactual exposure limits. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the population assisted by the Agency for Health Protection of Milan and resident in the CoM on 01.01.2019, aged 30 years or older. The place of residence was georeferenced and the population was followed up until 31.12.2019. Deaths and their causes were obtained from the Causes of Death Registry. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: deaths attributable to exposure from non-accidental causes, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and lung cancer were estimated. RESULTS: in 2019, the estimated annual average level of NO2 was 36.6 µg/m3, that of PM10 was 24.9 µg/m3, and that of PM2.5 was 22.4 µg/m3, with levels varying across the city area. Concerning exposure to NO2, in 2019 10% of deaths for natural causes were estimated to be attributable to annual mean levels of NO2 above 10 µg/m3. As regard PM2.5, 13% of deaths for natural causes and 18% of deaths from lung cancer were attributable to an annual mean level above 5 µg/m3. The impact of exposure to particulate matter on mortality does not seem to be the same in all the areas of the CoM. CONCLUSIONS: the health impact of exposure to airborne particulate matter in the CoM population is high. It is important that citizens, policy-makers, and stakeholders address this issue, because of its impact on both health and healthcare costs.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Contaminantes Ambientales , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Humanos , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/toxicidad , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Contaminantes Ambientales/toxicidad , Italia/epidemiología , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiología , Dióxido de Nitrógeno/toxicidad , Material Particulado/análisis , Material Particulado/toxicidadRESUMEN
Forensic autopsy is an important tool for the proper management of non-natural deaths in minors. However, it seems that autopsy in minors is a practice which may not be performed routinely. In this framework, we conducted a study analyzing autopsies of minors (under 18 years of age in Italy) performed at the Institute of Forensic Medicine in Milan in the period 2001-2019. For the period 2015-2019, we extrapolated all deaths due to non-natural causes in minors to investigate how many and which of these deaths were not subjected to forensic autopsy. Of the total, 344 minors (235 males and 109 females) underwent autopsies, with an overall downward trend of about 80% since 2004. Most autopsies occurred between the ages of 0 and 1 year, and the fewest between the ages of 5 and 9 years. The place of death was home in most cases, and accidental death was most common, followed by natural death, suicide, and homicide, with prevalence varying by age group. Blunt force trauma predominated among accidental death in all age groups, followed by asphyxia. Similar findings were observed for suicides, although there was a more differentiated pattern for suicides between the ages of 15 and 17 years. Among homicides, blunt force trauma, asphyxia, and gunshot wounds were fairly evenly distributed across all age groups. Between 2015 and 2019, a total of 86 minors died of a non-natural cause, and a forensic autopsy was performed in only 33 cases (38%). Our data shows that fewer and fewer autopsies are being performed over the last years, which indicates a dangerous lack of forensic investigation of children and adolescent deaths, with enormous implications for prevention of child abuse.
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Suicidio , Heridas por Arma de Fuego , Heridas no Penetrantes , Niño , Masculino , Adolescente , Femenino , Humanos , Recién Nacido , Lactante , Estudios Retrospectivos , Asfixia , Tabú , Causas de Muerte , Autopsia , HomicidioRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Non-natural mortality in children and adolescents is a global public health problem that varies widely from country to country. Data on child and adolescent maltreatment are not readily available, and mortality due to violent causes is also underestimated. METHODS: Injury-related mortality rates (overall and by specific causes) from 2000 to 2018 in selected European countries were analysed to observe mortality patterns in children and adolescents using data from the Eurostat database. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated for each country. Joinpoint regression analysis with a significance level of 0.05 and 95% confidence intervals was performed for mortality trends. RESULTS: Children and adolescent mortality from non-natural causes decreased significantly in Europe from 10.48 around 2005 to 5.91 around 2015. The Eastern countries (Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic) had higher rates; while Spain, Denmark, Italy, and the United Kingdom had the lowest. Rates for European Country declined by 5.10% per year over the entire period. Larger downward trends were observed in Ireland, Spain and Portugal; smaller downward trends were observed for Eastern countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia) and Finland. Among specific causes of death, the largest decreases were observed for accidental causes (-5.9%) and traffic accidents (-6.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality among children and adolescents due to non-natural causes has decreased significantly over the past two decades. Accidental events and transport accidents recorded the greatest decline in mortality rates, although there are still some European countries where the number of deaths among children and adolescents from non-natural causes is high. Social, cultural, and health-related reasons may explain the observed differences between countries.
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Accidentes de Tránsito , Mortalidad , Niño , Adolescente , Humanos , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Polonia , Reino Unido , ItaliaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Anemia (either pre-existing or hospital-acquired) is considered an independent predictor of mortality in acute coronary syndromes. However, it is still not clear whether anemia should be considered as a marker of worse health status or a therapeutic target. We sought to investigate the relationship between hospital-acquired anemia and clinical and laboratory findings and to assess the association with mortality and major cardiovascular events at long-term follow-up. METHODS: Patients consecutively admitted at Niguarda Hospital between February 2014 and November 2020 for an acute coronary syndrome were included in this cohort analysis and classified as anemic at admission (group A), with normal hemoglobin at admission but developing anemia during hospitalization (hospital-acquired anemia) (group B); and with normal hemoglobin levels throughout admission (group C). RESULTS: Among 1294 patients included, group A included 353 (27%) patients, group B 468 (36%), and group C 473 patients (37%). In terms of cardiovascular burden and incidence of death, major cardiovascular events and bleeding at 4.9-year median follow-up, group B had an intermediate risk profile as compared with A and C. Baseline anemia was an independent predictor of death (hazard ratio 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-2.25; P = .04) along with frailty, Charlson comorbidity Index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, previous myocardial infarction, and left ventricular ejection fraction. Conversely, hospital-acquired anemia was not associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 0.8-1.75; P = .4). CONCLUSIONS: Hospital-acquired anemia affects one-third of patients hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome and is associated with age, frailty, and comorbidity burden, but was not found to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality.
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Síndrome Coronario Agudo , Anemia , Fragilidad , Humanos , Síndrome Coronario Agudo/complicaciones , Síndrome Coronario Agudo/epidemiología , Volumen Sistólico , Fragilidad/complicaciones , Factores de Riesgo , Función Ventricular Izquierda , Anemia/epidemiología , Anemia/etiología , Hemoglobinas , HospitalesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: currently, individuals at risk of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 can access to vaccination and pharmacological interventions. But, during the first epidemic wave, there were no treatments or therapeutic strategies available to reduce adverse outcomes in patients at risk. OBJECTIVES: to assess the impact of an intervention at 15-month follow-up developed by the Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan Area of Milan (ATS Milan) based on telephone triage and consultation by the General Practitioners (GPs) for patient with high-risk for adverse outcomes. DESIGN: intervention on population. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: a total of 127,292 patients in the ATS aged ≥70 years and with comorbidities associated with an increased risk of dying from COVID-19 infection were identified. Using a specific information system, patients were assigned to their GPs for telephone triage and consultation. GPs inform them about the risks of the disease, non-pharmacological prevention measures, and precautions in contacts with family members and other persons. No specific clinical intervention was carried out, only an information/training intervention was performed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: by the end of May 2020, 48.613 patients had been contacted and 78.679 had not been contacted. Hazard Ratios (HRs) of infection hospitalisation and death at 3 and 15 months were estimated using Cox regression models adjusted by confounder. RESULTS: no differences in gender, age class distribution, prevalence of specific diseases, and Charlson Index were found between the two groups (treated such as called patients and not called). Called patients had a higher propensity for influenza and antipneumococcal vaccination and have more comorbidities and greater access to pharmacological therapies. Non-called patients have a greater risk for COVID-19 infection: HR was 3.88 (95%CI 3.48-4.33) at 3 months and 1.28 (95%CI 1.23-1.33) at 15 months; for COVID-19 hospitalization HR was 2.66 (95%CI 2.39-2,95) at 3 months and 1.31 (95%CI 1.25-1.37) at 15 months; for overall mortality HR was 2,52 (95%CI 2.35-2:72) at 3 months and 1.23 (95%CI 1.19-1.27) at 15 months. CONCLUSIONS: the results of this study show a reduction in hospitalization and deaths and support, in case of pandemic events, the implementation of new care strategies based on adapted stratification systems in order to protect the population's health. This study presents some limits: it is not randomized; a selection bias is present (called patients were those most in contact with the GPs); the intervention is indication-based (on march 2020, the actual benefit of protection and distancing for high-risk groups was unclear), and the adjustment is not able to fully control for confounding. However, this study points out the importance to develop information systems and improve methods to best protect the health of the population in setting of territorial epidemiology.
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COVID-19 , Médicos Generales , Gripe Humana , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Italia/epidemiología , Pandemias/prevención & controlRESUMEN
As the burden of acute care on government budgets is mounting in many countries, documenting the evolution of health costs following patients' hospital admission is essential for assessing overall hospital-related costs. In this paper, we investigate the short- and long-term effects of hospitalization on different types of health care expenditures. We specify and estimate a dynamic DID model using register data of the entire population of individuals aged 50-70 residing in Milan, Italy, over the period 2008-2017. We find evidence of a large and persistent effect of hospitalization on total health care expenditures, with future medical expenses mostly accounted for by inpatient care. Considering all health treatments, the overall effect is sizable and is about twice the cost of a single hospital admission. We show that chronically ill and disabled individuals require greater post-discharge medical assistance, especially for inpatient care, and that cardiovascular and oncological diseases together account for more than half of expenditures on future hospitalizations. Alternative out-of-hospital management practices are discussed as a post-admission cost-containment measure.
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Cuidados Posteriores , Gastos en Salud , Humanos , Alta del Paciente , Hospitalización , Control de CostosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, a generalised mortality excess was recorded in 2020. However, the mortality for COVID-19 cannot fully explain the observed excesses. The analysis of cause-specific mortality could contribute to estimate the direct and indirect effects of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and to the monitoring mortality trends. OBJECTIVES: to describe the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in overall and cause-specific mortality in population residing in the Agency for Health Protection (ATS) of Milan. Descriptive analysis of cause-specific mortality within thirty days of SARS-COV-2 infection. DESIGN: descriptive analysis of overall and cause-specific mortality in the ATS of Milan area in 2020 and comparison with a reference period (2015-2019). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: overall deaths in ATS of Milan in 2020 were collected, using the Local Registry of Causes of Death, and were classified according to the ICD-10 codes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: total and weekly overall and cause-specific mortality, by age. RESULTS: in 2020, 44,757 deaths for all causes were observed in people residing in the ATS of Milan with percentage change of 35%. The leading cause of death in 2020 were cardiovascular disease and neoplasm; COVID-19 infection was the third cause. An excess of mortality was observed for most of all causes of deaths. Starting from 40-49-year age group, an increase of mortality was observed; the largest increase was observed in the group 70+ years. The largest increases were observed for endocrine, respiratory, and hypertensive diseases. On the contrary, for neoplasm, infectious (not COVID-19) diseases, traffic-related mortality, and cerebrovascular disease and ictus, a decrease of mortality was observed. The greater mortality increase was observed during the first pandemic wave. The leading cause of death after positive swab was COVID-19 infection, with little variation with age class. Other frequent causes of death were respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and neoplasm. CONCLUSIONS: the study showed a generalised increase for most causes of death; observed mortality trends may indicate delay in access to health care system, in diagnosis and treatment.
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COVID-19 , Neoplasias , Humanos , Causas de Muerte , SARS-CoV-2 , Italia/epidemiología , MortalidadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: the influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses share a common respiratory symptomatology and transmission mode. COVID-19 and influenza R0 overlapped in the first epidemic wave. In autumn 2021-winter 2022, the influenza epidemic had a delayed onset compared to pre-COVID-19 years and lower incidence rates than in the pre-pandemic period. The SARS-CoV-2 and influenza vaccination campaign overlapped in 2021-2022. OBJECTIVES: to evaluate in the SARS-CoV-2 vaccinated cohort the effect of different timing of influenza vaccination on hospitalisations for COVID-19 and overall mortality. DESIGN: prospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: subjects aged 65 years or older who were administered the first booster dose of SARS-COV-2 vaccine between 01.10.2021 and 01.03.2022. Based on the date of influenza vaccination, subjects were divided into the following 4 different mutually exclusive groups: 1. two vaccinations in the same vaccination session; 2. influenza vaccination following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination; 3. influenza vaccination preceding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination; 4. no influenza vaccination. Using Cox regression models, hazard ratio (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of hospitalisation and death were estimated for the influenza-vaccinated subjects compared to influenza-unvaccinated subjects. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: ordinary hospital admissions for COVID-19 and general mortality. RESULTS: the cohort included 618,964 subjects: 16.3% received two vaccinations in the same vaccination session, 8.5% received the influenza vaccination after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, 33.9% received it before and 41.1% did not receive an influenza vaccination. Those vaccinated against both SARS-CoV-2 and influenza had a combined HR of 0.73 (0.62-0.86) of hospitalisation for COVID-19 and 0.55 (0.49-0.62) of overall mortality compared to those vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 only. CONCLUSIONS: influenza vaccination combined with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination increases the protective effect against hospitalisations and overall mortality compared to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination alone. Both organisational and communication actions aimed to promote and encourage vaccination are required.
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COVID-19 , Vacunas contra la Influenza , Gripe Humana , Humanos , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Estudios Prospectivos , Italia/epidemiología , Vacunación , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Hospitalización , Medición de RiesgoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: during 2020, Italy was one of the first nation hit by SARS-CoV-2, but it was not the hardest-hit country in terms of deaths. In absence of the death certificate, the burden of COVID-19 on mortality is usually calculated from overall deaths or from deaths of patients tested positive for COVID-19. However, these measures do not express the real burden of the disease on the population. OBJECTIVES: identify deaths due to or involving COVID-19 in absence of the death certificates. DESIGN: deaths for all causes, cause-specific deaths, COVID-19 hospitalization and COVID-19 confirmed cases between 01.01.2020 and 31.12.2021 observed in subjects residing in the territory of the ATS of Milan. Potential deaths due to or involving COVID-19 as those occurring in an optimal time period between the date of death and the date of positive swab and/or COVID-19 hospitalization, were identified. Optimal time period was defined maximizing sensitivity and specificity, comparing potential COVID-19 deaths with 2020 cause-specific mortality as gold standard, stratifying results by time of deaths, age, and number of comorbidities. Then, this method was further validated using a time-series approach to estimate the excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in comparison with the pre-outbreak period 2015-2019. Accuracy of predictions was evaluated with the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between observed and predicted values. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 78,202 deaths for all causes, of which 8,815 due to or involving COVID-19 as classified by the Milan Register of Death Causes for 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: from the beginning of the epidemic, 30% (23,495) died in the first semester of 2020, 26% (19,988) in the second semester of 2020, 23% (18,189) in the first semester of 2021, and 21% (16,530) in the second semester of 2021. COVID-19 hospitalizations were 13.826 (17%), while confirmed COVID-19 cases were 17,548 (22%). The optimal time intervals capable to identify a potential death due to or involving COVID-19 were 0-61 between the date of death and the date of positive swab and 0-11 between the date of death and the date of COVID-19 hospitalization, with an overall sensitivity of 90%, a specificity of 95%, and a RMSE of 3.6. Comparing the method proposed with the time-series approach, a RMSE in 2021 of 15.8 was found. Results showed different optimal time intervals for 2021 vs 2020 and by years of age and comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: this study found that deaths due to or involving COVID-19 could be sensitively identified from the date of positive swab and/or COVID-19 hospitalization. This method can be used for public health interventions which provided so far measures in terms of total deaths instead of real numbers of COVID-19 death, in particular those involving the effective reproduction number usually calculated from overall mortality.
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COVID-19 , Certificado de Defunción , Causas de Muerte , Humanos , Italia/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: In February 2021, the spread of a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 in the Lombardy Region, Italy caused concerns about school-aged children as a source of contagion, leading local authorities to adopt an extraordinary school closure measure. This generated a debate about the usefulness of such an intervention in light of the trade-off between its related benefits and costs (e.g. delays in educational attainment, impact on children and families' psycho-physical well-being). This article analyses the epidemiological impact of the school closure intervention in the Milan metropolitan area. METHODS: Data from the Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan City of Milan allowed analysing the trend of contagion in different age classes before and after the intervention, adopting an interrupted times series design, providing a quasi-experimental counterfactual scenario. Segmented Poisson regression models of daily incident cases were performed separately for the 3-11-year-old, the 12-19-year-old, and the 20+-year-old age groups, examining the change in the contagion curves after the intervention, adjusting for time-varying confounders. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox regression were used to assess the equality of survival curves in the three age groups before and after the intervention. RESULTS: Net of time-varying confounders, the intervention produced a daily reduction of the risk of contagion by 4% in those aged 3-11 and 12-19 (IRR = 0·96) and by 3% in those aged 20 or more (IRR = 0·97). More importantly, there were differences in the temporal order of contagion decrease between the age groups, with the epidemic curve lowering first in the school-aged children directly affected by the intervention, and only subsequently in the adult population, which presumably indirectly benefitted from the reduction of contagion among children. CONCLUSION: Though it was not possible to completely discern the effect of school closures from concurrent policy measures, a substantial decrease in the contagion curves was clearly detected after the intervention. The extent to which the slowdown of infections counterbalanced the social costs of the policy remains unclear.
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COVID-19 , Gripe Humana , Adolescente , Adulto , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Niño , Preescolar , Humanos , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Pandemias/prevención & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Instituciones Académicas , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: The emergency department (ED) is one of the most critical areas in any hospital. Recently, many countries have seen a rise in the number of ED visits, with an increase in length of stay and a detrimental effect on quality of care. Being able to forecast future demands would be a valuable support for hospitals to prevent high demand, particularly in a system with limited resources where use of ED services for non-urgent visits is an important issue. DESIGN: Time-series cohort study. SETTING: We collected all ED visits between January 2014 and December 2019 in the five larger hospitals in Milan. To predict daily volumes, we used a regression model with autoregressive integrated moving average errors. Predictors included were day of the week and year-round seasonality, meteorological and environmental variables, information on influenza epidemics and festivities. Accuracy of prediction was evaluated with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily all-cause EDs visits. RESULTS: In the study period, we observed 2 223 479 visits. ED visits were most likely to occur on weekends for children and on Mondays for adults and seniors. Results confirmed the role of meteorological and environmental variables and the presence of day of the week and year-round seasonality effects. We found high correlation between observed and predicted values with a MAPE globally smaller than 8.1%. CONCLUSIONS: Results were used to establish an ED warning system based on past observations and indicators of high demand. This is important in any health system that regularly faces scarcity of resources, and it is crucial in a system where use of ED services for non-urgent visits is still high.
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Servicios Médicos de Urgencia , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Adulto , Niño , Ciudades , Estudios de Cohortes , Predicción , HumanosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: This paper aims to assess the presence of gender differences in medication use and mortality in a cohort of patients affected exclusively by hypertension, in 193 municipalities in the Lombardy Region (Northern Italy), including Milan's metropolitan area. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted (N = 232,507) querying administrative healthcare data and the Register of Causes of Death. Hypertensive patients (55.4% women; 44.6% men) in 2017 were identified; gender differences in medication use (treatment, 80% compliance) and deaths (from all causes and CVDs) were assessed at two-year follow-ups in logistic regression models adjusted for age class, census-based deprivation index, nationality, and pre-existing health conditions. Models stratified by age, deprivation index, and therapeutic compliance were also tested. RESULTS: Overall, women had higher odds of being treated, but lower odds of therapeutic compliance, death from all causes, and death from CVDs. All the outcomes had clear sex differences across age classes, though not between different levels of deprivation. Comparing patients with medication adherence, women had lower odds of death from all causes than men (with a narrowing protective effect as age increased), while no gender differences emerged in non-compliant patients. CONCLUSIONS: Among hypertensive patients, gender differences in medication consumption and mortality have been found, but the extent to which these are attributable to a female socio-cultural disadvantage is questionable. The findings reached, with marked age-dependent effects in the outcomes investigated, suggest a prominent role for innate sex differences in biological susceptibility to the disease, whereby women would take advantage of the protective effects of their innate physiological characteristics, especially prior to the beginning of menopause.
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Hipertensión , Estudios de Cohortes , Femenino , Humanos , Hipertensión/tratamiento farmacológico , Italia/epidemiología , Masculino , Cumplimiento de la Medicación , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores SexualesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: the levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies after the second vaccine dose decline in the following months; the administration of an additional vaccine dose (booster) is able to restore the immune system in the short period significantly reducing the risk of a severe disease. In the winter of 2021, a new particularly infectious variant caused the urgent need to increase the coverage of the booster dose. OBJECTIVES: to present, using real data, an evaluation of the efficacy of the booster dose in reducing the severe disease of SARS-CoV-2 infection in terms of hospital admissions, intensive care and death from all causes. DESIGN: descriptive study of vaccine adherence; associative study of the factors linked with adherence of vaccination and COVID-19 symptoms; associative study of vaccine effectiveness against hospital admission and mortality. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: population-based study in the Milan and Lodi provinces (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy) with subjects aged >=19 years alive at 01.10.2021, not residing in a nursery home, followed up to 31.12.2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: COVID-19 symptoms, hospitalization for COVID-19, intensive care hospitalization, and all-cause mortality in the period 01.10.2021-31.12.2021. RESULTS: the cohort included 2,936,193 patients at 01.10.2021: at the end of the follow-up period (31.12.2021), 378,616 (12.9%) had no vaccine, 128,879 (4.3%) had only 1 dose, 412,227 (14.0%) had a 2nd dose given since less than 4 months, 725. 806 (25%) had a 2nd dose given since 4-7 months, 74,152 (2.5%) had a 2nd dose given since 7+ months, 62,614 (2.1%) had a 2nd dose and have had the disease, and 1,153,899 (39.3%) received the booster. In the study period (01.10.2021-31.12.2021), characterized by a very high prevalence of the omicron variant, 121,620 cases (antigenic/molecular buffer positive), 3,661 hospitalizations for COVID-19, 162 ICU hospitalizations, and 7,508 deaths from all causes were identified. Compared to unvaccinated people, subjects who had the booster dose had half the risk of being symptomatic, in particular for asthenia, muscle pain, and dyspnoea which are the most commons COVID-19 symptoms. In comparison with the subjects who had the booster dose, the unvaccinated had a 10-fold risk of hospitalization for COVID-19, a 9-fold risk of intensive care, and a 3-fold risk of dying. CONCLUSIONS: this work highlights the vaccination efficacy in reducing serious adverse events for those who undergo the booster and the need to implement specific engagement policies to bring to a booster those who had taken the second dose since the longest time.
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COVID-19 , Salud Pública , Adulto , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , Humanos , Inmunización Secundaria , Italia/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND AIM: Despite the overall decrease in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence, a small but constant rise has been recently observed in people younger than 50 years across several countries. This phenomenon can be explained by environmental or lifestyle factors, but it may also be partially justified by an increasing tendency in younger cohorts to undertake diagnostic procedures that may lead to CRC incidental diagnosis. METHODS: We performed an age-period-cohort analysis on 1 815 694 diagnostic procedures undertook by the population of the City of Milan, served by the Agency for Health Protection of Milan, between 1999 and 2018. We considered all instances of colonoscopy, rectoscopy, fecal occult blood test (FOBT) and ultrasonography. We stratified by gender, nationality and quintile of socioeconomic deprivation. RESULTS: Incidence of utilization rose with age for all procedures but rectoscopy; there was a marked increase from 2005 to 2010 for FOBT and colonoscopy. A strong all-procedures cohort effect was observed, greater for FOBT and colonoscopy. A steady increase of diagnostic procedures utilization started in cohorts born in the late 1950s, with a relative effect rising from 0.91 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90-0.92] for the 1950 cohort to 5.03 (95% CI, 4.58-5.48) for the 1990 one. CONCLUSION: We found a growing tendency in younger cohorts to undertake diagnostic procedures, explainable by inappropriate access to endoscopic procedures, that can lead to an incidental diagnosis of CRC. This finding may at least partially explain the observed rising incidence of early-onset CRC.
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Neoplasias Colorrectales , Detección Precoz del Cáncer , Efecto de Cohortes , Colonoscopía/métodos , Neoplasias Colorrectales/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorrectales/epidemiología , Neoplasias Colorrectales/prevención & control , Detección Precoz del Cáncer/métodos , Humanos , Tamizaje Masivo/métodos , Sangre OcultaRESUMEN
Background: In the context of the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, which occurred in correspondence with the outbreak of the Omicron variant, it became fundamental to assess differences in the risk of severe disease between the Omicron variant and the earlier SARS-CoV-2 variants that were still in circulation despite Omicron becoming prevalent. Methods: We collected data on 2,267 genotyped PCR-positive swab tests and assessed whether the presence of symptoms, risk of hospitalization, and recovery times were significantly different between Omicron and the earlier variants. Multivariable models adjusted for sex, age class, citizenship, comorbidities, and symptomatology allowed assessing the difference in outcomes between Omicron and the earlier variants according to vaccination status and timing of administration. Results: Compared to the earlier variants in the same period, Omicron was less symptomatic, resulted in fewer hospital admissions for those who were unvaccinated and for those who were already immunized after the booster dose, and was associated with quicker recovery, yet not in subjects with three vaccination doses. Conclusion: Despite being milder, Omicron's higher transmissibility and vaccine resistance should not lead to underrating its damage potential, especially with regard to hospital and health service saturation.
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OBJECTIVES: to present an evaluation of the campaign for vaccination against COVID-19 in the territory covered by the Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan Area of Milan from 01.01.2021 to 30.09.2021. DESIGN: descriptive study of vaccine adherence; predictive study of the factors associated with vaccine adherence, efficacy of vaccination in terms of hospitalization and mortality, and factors that increase the risk of hospital admission following full vaccination. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: population-based study with subjects aged >18 years eligible for vaccination (N. 2,981,997). An information system obtained by integrating various administrative healthcare sources made it possible to analyse socioeconomic characteristics, COVID-19 related hospitalizations, and general mortality in subjects eligible for vaccination. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: full vaccination (2 doses); COVID-19-related hospitalizations, COVID-19-related hospitalizations occurring more than 15 days after the second dose, general mortality. RESULTS: in the first nine months of the vaccination campaign, 74.7% of the subjects (N. 2,228,915) was fully vaccinated, whereas 15.6% (N. 465,829) did not even receive one dose. Women have a lower probability of getting vaccinated than men; the 50-59 years and 70+ years age groups emerge as the most problematic to reach, while the younger one (<40) is the most adherent. A social gradient emerged, with residents of more disadvantaged areas progressively less incline to get vaccinated than those living in more affluent areas. Adherence is greater in Italian citizenship and is likely to increase with an increase in the number of chronic conditions. Hospitalizations amounted to 1.22% (N. 5,672) in the unvaccinated population compared to 0.05% (N. 1,013) in the vaccinated population; general mortality was 4.51% (N. 15,198) in the unvaccinated population against 0.32% (N. 8.733) in the vaccinated population. Sociodemographic factors and the presence of previous health conditions are important predictors of hospitalization outcomes even within the fully vaccinated population. Specifically, the highest hazard ratios are found in subjects with heart failure (HR 2.15; 95%CI 1.83-2.53), in immunocompromised patients (HR 2.02; 95%CI 1.52-2.69), and in transplant recipients (HR 1.92; 95%CI 1.10-3.33). CONCLUSIONS: vaccination campaign adherence is affected by the sociodemographic characteristics of the population and is a determining factor in preventing hospitalizations for COVID-19 and death. The persistent higher risk of hospitalization in chronic subjects following the second dose emphasizes the need to direct booster doses to the more vulnerable. Information systems proved to be effective monitoring tools in the absence of specific trials.
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COVID-19 , Femenino , Humanos , Programas de Inmunización , Italia/epidemiología , Masculino , SARS-CoV-2 , VacunaciónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, specific characteristics of the infected subjects appeared to be associated with a severe disease, leading to hospitalization or death. OBJECTIVES: to evaluate the association between three components of the metabolic syndrome (diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, and hypertension), alone and in combination, and risk of hospitalization in subjects with nasopharyngeal swab-confirmed COVID-19. DESIGN: cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the study subjects were all COVID-19 cases diagnosed in the area of the Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan Area of Milan (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy) between 10.02.2020 and 25.04.2020, whose data were gathered with an ad hoc information system developed at the beginning of the pandemic. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the association between metabolic syndrome components (alone and in combination) and hospitalization (both in any ward and in intensive care unit) was measured by means of cause-specific Cox models with gender, age, and comorbidities as potential confounders. RESULTS: the cohort included 15,162 subjects followed from diagnosis up to 20.07.2020. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of hospitalization in any ward estimated by the Cox model were 1.26 for uncomplicated diabetes mellitus (95%CI 1.18-1.34); 1.21 for complicated diabetes mellitus (95%CI 1.05-1.39); 1.07 for dyslipidaemia (95%CI 1.00-1.14); and 1.11 for hypertension (95%CI 1.05-1.17). When all components coexisted in the same subject, the HR was 1.46 (95%CI 1.31-1.62). A significant increase in risk of hospitalization in intensive care unit was found for uncomplicated diabetes mellitus (HR 1.38; 95%CI 1.15-1.66). CONCLUSIONS: this population-based study confirms that metabolic syndrome components increase the risk of hospitalization for COVID-19. The HR increases in an additive manner when the three components are simultaneously present.