The changing landscape of neonatal diabetes mellitus in Italy between 2003-2022.

CONTEXT: In the last decade Sanger method of DNA sequencing has been replaced by next generation sequencing (NGS). NGS is valuable in conditions characterized by high genetic heterogeneity such as neonatal diabetes mellitus (NDM). OBJECTIVE: To compare results of genetic analysis of patients with NDM and congenital severe insulin resistance (c.SIR) identified in Italy in 2003-2012 (Sanger) versus 2013-2022 (NGS). METHODS: We reviewed clinical and genetic records of 104 cases with diabetes onset before 6 months of age (NDM+c.SIR) of the Italian dataset. RESULTS: Fiftyfive patients (50 NDM + 5 c.SIR) were identified during 2003-2012 and 49 (46 NDM + 3 c.SIR) in 2013-2022. Twenty-year incidence was 1:103,340 (NDM) and 1:1,240,082 (c.SIR) live births. Frequent NDM/c.SIR genetic defects (KCNJ11, INS, ABCC8, 6q24, INSR) were detected in 41 and 34 probands during 2003-2012 and 2013-2022, respectively. We identified a pathogenic variant in rare genes in a single proband (GATA4) (1/42 or 2.4%) during 2003-2012 and in 8 infants (RFX6, PDX1, GATA6, HNF1B, FOXP3, IL2RA, LRBA, BSCL2) during 2013-2022 (8/42 or 19%, p= 0.034 vs 2003-2012). Notably, five among rare genes were recessive. Swift and accurate genetic diagnosis led to appropriate treatment: patients with autoimmune NDM (FOXP3, IL2RA, LRBA), were subjected to bone marrow transplant; patients with pancreas agenesis/hypoplasia (RFX6, PDX1) were supplemented with pancreatic enzymes and the individual with lipodystrophy caused by BSCL2 was started on metreleptin. CONCLUSIONS: NGS substantially improved diagnosis and precision therapy of monogenic forms of neonatal diabetes and congenital SIR in Italy.

Loss of CEACAM1 in hepatocytes causes hepatic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: The role of insulin resistance in hepatic fibrosis in Metabolic dysfunction-Associated SteatoHepatitis (MASH) remains unclear. Carcinoembryonic Antigen-related Cell Adhesion Molecule1 protein (CEACAM1) promotes insulin clearance to maintain insulin sensitivity and repress de novo lipogenesis, as bolstered by the development of insulin resistance and steatohepatitis in AlbuminCre + Cc1fl/fl mice with liver-specific mouse gene encoding CEACAM1 protein (Ceacam1) deletion. We herein investigated whether these mice also developed hepatic fibrosis and whether hepatic CEACAM1 is reduced in patients with MASH at different fibrosis stages. METHODS: AlbuminCre + Cc1fl/fl mice were fed a regular or a high-fat diet before their insulin metabolism and action were assessed during IPGTT, and their livers excised for histochemical, immunohistochemical and Western blot analysis. Sirius red staining was used to assess fibrosis, and media transfer was employed to examine whether mutant hepatocytes activated hepatic stellate cells (HSCs). Hepatic CEACAM1 protein levels in patients with varying disease stages were assessed by ELISA. RESULTS: Hepatocytic deletion of Ceacam1 caused hyperinsulinemia-driven insulin resistance emanating from reduced hepatic insulin clearance. AlbuminCre + Cc1fl/fl livers showed inflammation, fibrosis and hepatic injury, with more advanced bridging and chicken-wire hepatic fibrosis under high-fat conditions. Media transferred from hepatocytes isolated from mutant mice activated control HSCs, likely owing to their elevated endothelin1 content. Interestingly, hepatic CEACAM1 levels were lower in the livers of patients with MASH and declined gradually with advanced fibrosis stage. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatic CEACAM1 levels declined with progression of MASH in humans. The phenotype of AlbuminCre + Cc1fl/fl mice assigned a key role to CEACAM1 loss from hepatocytes in hepatic fibrosis independently of other liver cells.

Autonomously functioning thyroid nodules present intermediate malignancy risk according to European Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (EU-TIRADS) and yield indeterminate cytology results.

Objectives: The aim was to evaluate the clinical, ultrasound (US) and, when indicated, the cytological and histological characteristics of autonomously functioning thyroid nodules (AFTN) in consecutive patients. Methods: A prospective, single-centre study was conducted between March 2018 and September 2021. In total, 901 consecutive patients were referred for thyroid workup and of 67 AFTN were evaluated. All enrolled patients underwent 99mTcO4 - scintigraphy, additional 123I scintigraphy only in case of normal serum TSH, evaluation of thyroid function, US examination using European Thyroid Imaging and Reporting Data System (EU-TIRADS), and US-guided fine needle aspiration (FNA) cytology when indicated. All indeterminate FNA samples were subjected to DNA sequencing analysis. Results: More than half of the evaluated patients with AFTN were euthyroid; median serum TSH was 0.41 (IQR: 0.03-0.97) mU/L. The median AFTN size measured by US was 27.0 (IQR: 21.1-35.0) mm. 28.4% of AFTN were classified as EU-TIRADS score 3 and 71.6% as EU-TIRADS score 4, indicating that the majority of AFTN had intermediate risk for malignancy according to US. Out of the 47 AFTN subjected to cytological evaluation, 24 (51%) yielded indeterminate FNA results. DNA sequencing revealed pathogenic TSHR and GNAS mutations in 60% of cases. No malignancy was detected at final histology in surgically excised AFTN (n = 12). Conclusions: Of the 67 AFTN evaluated in this study, 50% presented with normal serum TSH, 70% displayed ultrasound features suggesting an intermediate malignancy risk and 50% of the AFTN submitted to cytology yielded indeterminate results. No malignant AFTN was detected.

Parsimonious physics-informed random projection neural networks for initial value problems of ODEs and index-1 DAEs.

We present a numerical method based on random projections with Gaussian kernels and physics-informed neural networks for the numerical solution of initial value problems (IVPs) of nonlinear stiff ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and index-1 differential algebraic equations (DAEs), which may also arise from spatial discretization of partial differential equations (PDEs). The internal weights are fixed to ones while the unknown weights between the hidden and output layer are computed with Newton's iterations using the Moore-Penrose pseudo-inverse for low to medium scale and sparse QR decomposition with L 2 regularization for medium- to large-scale systems. Building on previous works on random projections, we also prove its approximation accuracy. To deal with stiffness and sharp gradients, we propose an adaptive step-size scheme and address a continuation method for providing good initial guesses for Newton iterations. The "optimal" bounds of the uniform distribution from which the values of the shape parameters of the Gaussian kernels are sampled and the number of basis functions are "parsimoniously" chosen based on bias-variance trade-off decomposition. To assess the performance of the scheme in terms of both numerical approximation accuracy and computational cost, we used eight benchmark problems (three index-1 DAEs problems, and five stiff ODEs problems including the Hindmarsh-Rose neuronal model of chaotic dynamics and the Allen-Cahn phase-field PDE). The efficiency of the scheme was compared against two stiff ODEs/DAEs solvers, namely, ode15s and ode23t solvers of the MATLAB ODE suite as well as against deep learning as implemented in the DeepXDE library for scientific machine learning and physics-informed learning for the solution of the Lotka-Volterra ODEs included in the demos of the library. A software/toolbox in Matlab (that we call RanDiffNet) with demos is also provided.

The quality of parenting in reproductive donation families: A meta-analysis and systematic review.

This review examined whether the absence of a genetic link with one or both parents in families using reproductive donation induced a different quality of parenting from that found in families with spontaneous conception or autologous assisted reproductive technology (AUT-ART), where the genetic mother carries the pregnancy and both parents have a genetic link with their children. MEDLINE, PsycINFO and PubMed were searched for English-language studies published from January 1993 to October 2021. A total of 45 studies were included in the systematic review, and 11 in the meta-analysis. The meta-analysis showed that in reproductive donation families, where there was no genetic link between parents and children, there were higher positive parental values (P = 0.007) and lower negative parental values (P = 0.007) than for parents and children in families that had spontaneously conceived. No statistically significant differences emerged when the reproductive donation families were compared with the AUT-ART families. The study showed that the quality of parenting was not conditioned by the presence or absence of a genetic link; instead, it was influenced by the processes underlying family building, such as the desire to have a child, the involvement of both parents in the childcare and the quality of disclosure.

Designing social distancing policies for the COVID-19 pandemic: A probabilistic model predictive control approach.

The effective control of the COVID-19 pandemic is one the most challenging issues of recent years. The design of optimal control policies is challenging due to a variety of social, political, economical and epidemiological factors. Here, based on epidemiological data reported in recent studies for the Italian region of Lombardy, which experienced one of the largest and most devastating outbreaks in Europe during the first wave of the pandemic, we present a probabilistic model predictive control (PMPC) approach for the systematic study of what if scenarios of social distancing in a retrospective analysis for the first wave of the pandemic in Lombardy. The performance of the proposed PMPC was assessed based on simulations of a compartmental model that was developed to quantify the uncertainty in the level of the asymptomatic cases in the population, and the synergistic effect of social distancing during various activities, and public awareness campaign prompting people to adopt cautious behaviors to reduce the risk of disease transmission. The PMPC takes into account the social mixing effect, i.e. the effect of the various activities in the potential transmission of the disease. The proposed approach demonstrates the utility of a PMPC approach in addressing COVID-19 transmission and implementing public relaxation policies.

In hospital risk factors for acute kidney injury and its burden in patients with Sars-Cov-2 infection: a longitudinal multinational study.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with increased mortality in most critical settings. However, it is unclear whether its mild form (i.e. AKI stage 1) is associated with increased mortality also in non-critical settings. Here we conducted an international study in patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infection aiming 1. to estimate the incidence of AKI at each stage and its impact on mortality 2. to identify AKI risk factors at admission (susceptibility) and during hospitalization (exposures) and factors contributing to AKI-associated mortality. We included 939 patients from medical departments in Moscow (Russia) and Padua (Italy). In-hospital AKI onset was identified in 140 (14.9%) patients, mainly with stage 1 (65%). Mortality was remarkably higher in patients with AKI compared to those without AKI (55 [39.3%] vs. 34 [4.3%], respectively). Such association remained significant after adjustment for other clinical conditions at admission (relative risk [RR] 5.6; CI 3.5- 8.8) or restricting to AKI stage 1 (RR 3.2; CI 1.8-5.5) or to subjects with AKI onset preceding deterioration of clinical conditions. After hospital admission, worsening of hypoxic damage, inflammation, hyperglycemia, and coagulopathy were identified as hospital-acquired risk factors predicting AKI onset. Following AKI onset, the AKI-associated worsening of respiratory function was identified as the main contributor to AKI-induced increase in mortality risk. In conclusion, AKI is a common complication of Sars-CoV2 infection in non-intensive care settings where it markedly increases mortality risk also at stage 1. The identification of hospital-acquired risk factors and exposures might help prevention of AKI onset and of its complications.

Metabolic Changes after Radioiodine Correction of Grade 1 and Grade 2 Subclinical Hyperthyroidism.

OBJECTIVE: Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism (eSCH) is defined by subnormal serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) level. There is limited evidence of metabolic changes induced by eSCH. The aim of our work was to evaluate changes in BMI and lipid parameters after radioiodine treatment in patients with grade 1 (TSH: 0.1-0.39 mlU/L) and 2 (TSH <0.1 mlU/L) eSCH. DESIGN: A retrospective study was performed on 74 patients with eSCH caused by benign autonomous nodular goiter which was treated with radioiodine. METHODS: We assessed BMI, lipids parameters, and TSH after radioiodine therapy. The 12-month follow-up time point was used to compare the primary outcome variables. TSH was measured by the electrochemiluminescence method. RESULTS: After radioiodine therapy, the absolute and relative increases in BMI at 12 months were significantly higher in the grade 2 group than in the grade 1 group (1.07 ± 0.27 kg/m2 vs. 0.26 ± 0.15 kg/m2, respectively; p = 0.023 and 4.01 ± 0.98% vs. 1.01 ± 0.56%, respectively; p = 0.026). Compared to baseline, significant increases in the levels of total cholesterol and LDL were observed after treatment in the grade 2 eSCH group (16.7 ± 4.5 mg/dL p < 0.01 and 14.3 ± 4.1 mg/dL p < 0.01, respectively) but not in the grade 1 group. In a multivariate model, a negative correlation was observed between pretreatment TSH levels and absolute BMI gain (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: After correction of eSCH, increases in BMI and LDL levels were observed only in patients with grade 2 eSCH. Pretreatment serum TSH was the main independent factor associated with BMI changes after radioiodine treatment.

Regulation of hepatic fibrosis by carcinoembryonic antigen-related cell adhesion molecule 1.

OBJECTIVE: NAFLD is a complex disease marked by cellular abnormalities leading to NASH. NAFLD patients manifest low hepatic levels of CEACAM1, a promoter of insulin clearance. Consistently, Cc1-/- null mice displayed spontaneous hyperinsulinemia/insulin resistance and steatohepatitis. Liver-specific reconstitution of Ceacam1 reversed these metabolic anomalies in 8-month-old Cc1-/-xliver+ mice fed a regular chow diet. The current study examined whether it would also reverse progressive hepatic fibrosis in mice fed a high-fat (HF) diet. METHODS: 3-Month-old mice were fed a high-fat diet for 3-5 months, and metabolic and histopathological analysis were conducted to evaluate their NASH phenotype. RESULTS: Reconstituting CEACAM1 to Cc1-/- livers curbed diet-induced liver dysfunction and NASH, including macrovesicular steatosis, lobular inflammation, apoptosis, oxidative stress, and chicken-wire bridging fibrosis. Persistence of hepatic fibrosis in HF-fed Cc1-/- treated with nicotinic acid demonstrated a limited role for lipolysis and adipokine release in hepatic fibrosis caused by Ceacam1 deletion. CONCLUSIONS: Restored metabolic and histopathological phenotype of HF-fed Cc1-/-xliver+xliver+ assigned a critical role for hepatic CEACAM1 in preventing NAFLD/NASH including progressive hepatic fibrosis.

Differences between transient neonatal diabetes mellitus subtypes can guide diagnosis and therapy.

OBJECTIVE: Transient neonatal diabetes mellitus (TNDM) is caused by activating mutations in ABCC8 and KCNJ11 genes (KATP/TNDM) or by chromosome 6q24 abnormalities (6q24/TNDM). We wanted to assess whether these different genetic aetiologies result in distinct clinical features. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of the Italian data set of patients with TNDM. METHODS: Clinical features and treatment of 22 KATP/TNDM patients and 12 6q24/TNDM patients were compared. RESULTS: Fourteen KATP/TNDM probands had a carrier parent with abnormal glucose values, four patients with 6q24 showed macroglossia and/or umbilical hernia. Median age at diabetes onset and birth weight were lower in patients with 6q24 (1 week; -2.27 SD) than those with KATP mutations (4.0 weeks; -1.04 SD) (P = 0.009 and P = 0.007, respectively). Median time to remission was longer in KATP/TNDM than 6q24/TNDM (21.5 weeks vs 12 weeks) (P = 0.002). Two KATP/TNDM patients entered diabetes remission without pharmacological therapy. A proband with the ABCC8/L225P variant previously associated with permanent neonatal diabetes entered 7-year long remission after 1 year of sulfonylurea therapy. Seven diabetic individuals with KATP mutations were successfully treated with sulfonylurea monotherapy; four cases with relapsing 6q24/TNDM were treated with insulin, metformin or combination therapy. CONCLUSIONS: If TNDM is suspected, KATP genes should be analyzed first with the exception of patients with macroglossia and/or umbilical hernia. Remission of diabetes without pharmacological therapy should not preclude genetic analysis. Early treatment with sulfonylurea may induce long-lasting remission of diabetes in patients with KATP mutations associated with PNDM. Adult patients carrying KATP/TNDM mutations respond favourably to sulfonylurea monotherapy.

Lessons from the devastating impact of the first COVID-19 wave in Italy.

Herein, we are critically examining the chain of events and discussing previously unrecognized factors that led to the 'perfect COVID-19 storm' in northern Italy during the first epidemic wave in spring 2020. SARS-CoV-2 was circulating uncontrollably at least for five weeks before the adoption of containment measures, and the role of exponential growth in the spread of the virus, conveyed by a high R0, was likely underestimated. An understanding of this failure's causes and contexts will help us to control the strong second wave of the pandemic we are now facing in Europe, and to be better prepared for future outbreaks.

Loss of Hepatic Carcinoembryonic Antigen-Related Cell Adhesion Molecule 1 Links Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis to Atherosclerosis.

Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease/steatohepatitis (NAFLD/NASH) commonly develop atherosclerosis through a mechanism that is not well delineated. These diseases are associated with steatosis, inflammation, oxidative stress, and fibrosis. The role of insulin resistance in their pathogenesis remains controversial. Albumin (Alb)Cre+ Cc1flox ( fl ) /fl mice with the liver-specific null deletion of the carcinoembryonic antigen-related cell adhesion molecule 1 (Ceacam1; alias Cc1) gene display hyperinsulinemia resulting from impaired insulin clearance followed by hepatic insulin resistance, elevated de novo lipogenesis, and ultimately visceral obesity and systemic insulin resistance. We therefore tested whether this mutation causes NAFLD/NASH and atherosclerosis. To this end, mice were propagated on a low-density lipoprotein receptor (Ldlr) -/- background and at 4 months of age were fed a high-cholesterol diet for 2 months. We then assessed the biochemical and histopathologic changes in liver and aortae. Ldlr-/-AlbCre+Cc1fl/fl mice developed chronic hyperinsulinemia with proatherogenic hypercholesterolemia, a robust proinflammatory state associated with visceral obesity, elevated oxidative stress (reduced NO production), and an increase in plasma and tissue endothelin-1 levels. In parallel, they developed NASH (steatohepatitis, apoptosis, and fibrosis) and atherosclerotic plaque lesions. Mechanistically, hyperinsulinemia caused down-regulation of the insulin receptor followed by inactivation of the insulin receptor substrate 1-protein kinase B-endothelial NO synthase pathway in aortae, lowering the NO level. This also limited CEACAM1 phosphorylation and its sequestration of Shc-transforming protein (Shc), activating the Shc-mitogen-activated protein kinase-nuclear factor kappa B pathway and stimulating endothelin-1 production. Thus, in the presence of proatherogenic dyslipidemia, hyperinsulinemia and hepatic insulin resistance driven by liver-specific deletion of Ceacam1 caused metabolic and vascular alterations reminiscent of NASH and atherosclerosis. Conclusion: Altered CEACAM1-dependent hepatic insulin clearance pathways constitute a molecular link between NASH and atherosclerosis.

Tracing day-zero and forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: A compartmental modelling and numerical optimization approach.

INTRODUCTION: Italy became the second epicenter of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic after China, surpassing by far China's death toll. The disease swept through Lombardy, which remained in lockdown for about two months, starting from the 8th of March. As of that day, the isolation measures taken in Lombardy were extended to the entire country. Here, assuming that effectively there was one case "zero" that introduced the virus to the region, we provide estimates for: (a) the day-zero of the outbreak in Lombardy, Italy; (b) the actual number of asymptomatic infected cases in the total population until March 8; (c) the basic (R0)and the effective reproduction number (Re) based on the estimation of the actual number of infected cases. To demonstrate the efficiency of the model and approach, we also provide a tentative forecast two months ahead of time, i.e. until May 4, the date on which relaxation of the measures commenced, on the basis of the COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports released by Google on March 29. METHODS: To deal with the uncertainty in the number of the actual asymptomatic infected cases in the total population Volpert et al. (2020), we address a modified compartmental Susceptible/ Exposed/ Infectious Asymptomatic/ Infected Symptomatic/ Recovered/ Dead (SEIIRD) model with two compartments of infectious persons: one modelling the cases in the population that are asymptomatic or experience very mild symptoms and another modelling the infected cases with mild to severe symptoms. The parameters of the model corresponding to the recovery period, the time from the onset of symptoms to death and the time from exposure to the time that an individual starts to be infectious, have been set as reported from clinical studies on COVID-19. For the estimation of the day-zero of the outbreak in Lombardy, as well as of the "effective" per-day transmission rate for which no clinical data are available, we have used the proposed SEIIRD simulator to fit the numbers of new daily cases from February 21 to the 8th of March. This was accomplished by solving a mixed-integer optimization problem. Based on the computed parameters, we also provide an estimation of the basic reproduction number R0 and the evolution of the effective reproduction number Re. To examine the efficiency of the model and approach, we ran the simulator to "forecast" the epidemic two months ahead of time, i.e. from March 8 to May 4. For this purpose, we considered the reduction in mobility in Lombardy as released on March 29 by Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, and the effects of social distancing and of the very strict measures taken by the government on March 20 and March 21, 2020. RESULTS: Based on the proposed methodological procedure, we estimated that the expected day-zero was January 14 (min-max rage: January 5 to January 23, interquartile range: January 11 to January 18). The actual cumulative number of asymptomatic infected cases in the total population in Lombardy on March 8 was of the order of 15 times the confirmed cumulative number of infected cases, while the expected value of the basic reproduction number R0 was found to be 4.53 (min-max range: 4.40- 4.65). On May 4, the date on which relaxation of the measures commenced the effective reproduction number was found to be 0.987 (interquartiles: 0.857, 1.133). The model approximated adequately two months ahead of time the evolution of reported cases of infected until May 4, the day on which the phase I of the relaxation of measures was implemented over all of Italy. Furthermore the model predicted that until May 4, around 20% of the population in Lombardy has recovered (interquartile range: ∼10% to ∼30%).

Newly-diagnosed diabetes and admission hyperglycemia predict COVID-19 severity by aggravating respiratory deterioration.

AIMS: We investigated whether pre-existing diabetes, newly-diagnosed diabetes, and admission hyperglycemia were associated with COVID-19 severity independently from confounders. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data on patients with COVID-19 hospitalized between February and April 2020 in an outbreak hospital in North-East Italy. Pre-existing diabetes was defined by self-reported history, electronic medical records, or ongoing medications. Newly-diagnosed diabetes was defined by HbA1c and fasting glucose. The primary outcome was a composite of ICU admission or death. RESULTS: 413 subjects were included, 107 of whom (25.6%) had diabetes, including 21 newly-diagnosed. Patients with diabetes were older and had greater comorbidity burden. The primary outcome occurred in 37.4% of patients with diabetes compared to 20.3% in those without (RR 1.85; 95%C.I. 1.33-2.57; p < 0.001). The association was stronger for newly-diagnosed compared to pre-existing diabetes (RR 3.06 vs 1.55; p = 0.004). Higher glucose level at admission was associated with COVID-19 severity, with a stronger association among patients without as compared to those with pre-existing diabetes (interaction p < 0.001). Admission glucose was correlated with most clinical severity indexes and its association with adverse outcome was mostly mediated by a worse respiratory function. CONCLUSION: Newly-diagnosed diabetes and admission hyperglycemia are powerful predictors of COVID-19 severity due to rapid respiratory deterioration.

Renal structure in type 2 diabetes: facts and misconceptions.

The clinical manifestations of diabetic nephropathy are similar in type 1 and type 2 diabetes, while the renal lesions may differ. Indeed, diabetic glomerulopathy is the predominant renal lesion in type 1 diabetes, although also tubular, interstitial and arteriolar lesions are present in the advanced stages of renal disease. In contrast, in type 2 diabetes renal lesions are heterogeneous, and a substantial number of type 2 diabetic patients with diabetic kidney disease have mild or absent glomerulopathy with tubulointerstitial and/or arteriolar abnormalities. In addition, a high prevalence of non-diabetic renal diseases, isolated or superimposed on classic diabetic nephropathy lesions have been reported in patients with type 2 diabetes, often reflecting the bias of selecting patients for unusual clinical presentations for renal biopsy. This review focuses on renal structural changes in type 2 diabetes, emphasizing the contribution of research kidney biopsy studies to the understanding of the pathogenesis of DKD and of the structural lesions responsible for the different clinical phenotypes. Also, kidney biopsies could provide relevant information in terms of renal prognosis, and help to understand the different responses to different therapies, especially SGLT2 inhibitors, thus allowing personalized medicine.

Data-based analysis, modelling and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Since the first suspected case of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) on December 1st, 2019, in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, a total of 40,235 confirmed cases and 909 deaths have been reported in China up to February 10, 2020, evoking fear locally and internationally. Here, based on the publicly available epidemiological data for Hubei, China from January 11 to February 10, 2020, we provide estimates of the main epidemiological parameters. In particular, we provide an estimation of the case fatality and case recovery ratios, along with their 90% confidence intervals as the outbreak evolves. On the basis of a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SIDR) model, we provide estimations of the basic reproduction number (R0), and the per day infection mortality and recovery rates. By calibrating the parameters of the SIRD model to the reported data, we also attempt to forecast the evolution of the outbreak at the epicenter three weeks ahead, i.e. until February 29. As the number of infected individuals, especially of those with asymptomatic or mild courses, is suspected to be much higher than the official numbers, which can be considered only as a subset of the actual numbers of infected and recovered cases in the total population, we have repeated the calculations under a second scenario that considers twenty times the number of confirmed infected cases and forty times the number of recovered, leaving the number of deaths unchanged. Based on the reported data, the expected value of R0 as computed considering the period from the 11th of January until the 18th of January, using the official counts of confirmed cases was found to be ∼4.6, while the one computed under the second scenario was found to be ∼3.2. Thus, based on the SIRD simulations, the estimated average value of R0 was found to be ∼2.6 based on confirmed cases and ∼2 based on the second scenario. Our forecasting flashes a note of caution for the presently unfolding outbreak in China. Based on the official counts for confirmed cases, the simulations suggest that the cumulative number of infected could reach 180,000 (with a lower bound of 45,000) by February 29. Regarding the number of deaths, simulations forecast that on the basis of the up to the 10th of February reported data, the death toll might exceed 2,700 (as a lower bound) by February 29. Our analysis further reveals a significant decline of the case fatality ratio from January 26 to which various factors may have contributed, such as the severe control measures taken in Hubei, China (e.g. quarantine and hospitalization of infected individuals), but mainly because of the fact that the actual cumulative numbers of infected and recovered cases in the population most likely are much higher than the reported ones. Thus, in a scenario where we have taken twenty times the confirmed number of infected and forty times the confirmed number of recovered cases, the case fatality ratio is around ∼0.15% in the total population. Importantly, based on this scenario, simulations suggest a slow down of the outbreak in Hubei at the end of February.

Cholesterol 25-hydroxylase (CH25H) as a promoter of adipose tissue inflammation in obesity and diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Expansion of visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and metabolic inflammation are consequences of obesity and associated with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Metabolically activated adipose tissue macrophages (ATMs) undergo qualitative and quantitative changes that influence their inflammatory responses. How these cells contribute to insulin resistance (IR) in humans is not well understood. Cholesterol 25-Hydroxylase (CH25H) converts cholesterol into 25-Hydroxycholesterol (25-HC), an oxysterol that modulates immune responses. Using human and murine models, we investigated the role of CH25H in metabolic inflammation. METHODS: We performed transcriptomic (RNASeq) analysis on the human whole AT biopsies and sorted ATMs from obese non-diabetic (NDM) and obese diabetic (DM) subjects to inquire if CH25H was increased in DM. We challenged mice lacking Ch25h with a high-fat diet (HFD) to characterize their metabolic and immunologic profiling. Ch25h KO mice and human adipose tissue biopsies from NDM and DM subjects were analyzed. LC-MS was conducted to measure 25-HC level in AT. In vitro analysis permitted us to investigate the effect of 25-HC on cytokine expression. RESULTS: In our RNASeq analysis of human visceral and subcutaneous biopsies, gene pathways related to inflammation were increased in obese DM vs. non-DM subjects that included CH25H. CH25H was enriched in the stromal vascular fraction of human adipose tissue and highly expressed in CD206+ human ATMs by flow cytometry analysis. We measured the levels of the oxysterols, 25-HC and 7α25diHC, in human visceral adipose tissue samples and showed a correlation between BMI and 25-HC. Using mouse models of diet-induced obesity (DIO), we found that HFD-induced Ch25h expression in eWAT and increased levels of 25-HC in AT. On HFD, Ch25h KO mice became obese but exhibited reduced plasma insulin levels, improved insulin action, and decreased ectopic lipid deposit. Improved insulin sensitivity in Ch25h KO mice was due to attenuation of CD11c+ adipose tissue macrophage infiltration in eWAT. Finally, by testing AT explants, bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMDMs) and SVF cells from Ch25h deficient mice, we observed that 25-HC is required for the expression of pro-inflammatory genes. 25-HC was also able to induce inflammatory genes in preadipocytes. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest a critical role for CH25H/25-HC in the progression of meta-inflammation and insulin resistance in obese humans and mouse models of obesity. In response to obesogenic stimuli, CH25H/25-HC could exert a pro-inflammatory role.

Bautin bifurcations in a forest-grassland ecosystem with human-environment interactions.

Ecosystems may be characterized by a complex dynamical behaviour where external disturbances and/or internal perturbations may trigger sudden/irreversible changes, called catastrophic shifts. Simple mathematical models in the form of ordinary and/or partial differential equations have been proposed to approximate in a qualitatively manner the observed complex phenomena, where catastrophic shifts are determined by bifurcation points. In this work, we show that in ecosystems, gradual/smooth changes may be transformed in sudden/catastrophic shifts as a consequence of codimension-2 bifurcations. We stress the importance of using the full arsenal of numerical bifurcation theory to systematically identify and characterize criticalities in ecological models in the 2D parameter space. For our demonstrations, we revisit the analysis of a simple model of a forest-grassland mosaic ecosystem constructing the 2D bifurcation diagram with respect to the impact of human influence and that of natural causes. Our numerical analysis reveals that this simple model is able to approximate both abrupt (catastrophic) and smooth transitions as the system undergoes Bautin bifurcations.