Assessing the level of poverty and utilization of government social programs among tobacco farmers in Indonesia.

INTRODUCTION: Studies examining profit suggest that former tobacco farmers do as well or better than current tobacco farmers. Research has yet to examine the relationship among current and former tobacco farmers, poverty, and receipt of government social assistance. This type of research is critical to understanding the direct and indirect subsidization of tobacco growing. This study analyzed tobacco farmers' poverty levels and receipt of government social assistance programs. METHODS: We designed and conducted an original four-wave economic survey of current and former tobacco farming households in Indonesia between 2016 and 2022. We then used descriptive analysis and probit regression for panel data to estimate the relationship between tobacco farming and poverty status. RESULTS: Tobacco farmers' per capita income and poverty rates vary across years. The poverty rate was significantly higher in the year with a higher-than-normal rainfall as it negatively affected farming outcomes. During this year, the poverty rate among current tobacco farmers was also higher than that of former tobacco farmers. Regression estimates from the panel data confirm the association between tobacco farming and the likelihood of being poor. We also found a high share of current tobacco farmers who receive government social assistance programs, such as cash transfer programs and a universal healthcare program. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show high poverty rates-particularly during bad farming years-and high rates of government social assistance among tobacco farmers. The high rates of government assistance among tobacco farmers living in poverty show that the government is indirectly subsidizing the tobacco industry.

Tobacco farming: overcoming an understated impediment to comprehensive tobacco control.

Tobacco farming has emerged as an important concern for tobacco control advocates. Tobacco-growing countries face unique and important challenges to comprehensive, intersectoral tobacco control. These challenges stem from narratives that position tobacco as an important driver of economic growth and development, perpetuated by tobacco interests with close ties to government decision-making. While the global tobacco control movement has enshrined a commitment to alternatives to tobacco growing, there remain numerous obstacles. Tobacco growing is often situated in contexts with limited markets for other agricultural products, limited knowledge and economic resources to pursue alternatives, and/or a structure that favours industry control over the supply chain, all constraining the decision space of farmers. An evidence-informed approach is necessary to address tobacco supply, including growing, processing, manufacturing and trade, in this complex context. This paper reviews the economic, environmental and policy context of tobacco growing with an emphasis on the past decade of empirical work on the political economy of tobacco supply and introduces strategies to pursue alternatives. This analysis debunks many of the arguments used to perpetuate the narrative of tobacco's prosperity and provides critical insights into the institutional constraints faced by government sectors in pursuing a policy of alternatives.

Tobacco or not tobacco: predicting farming households' income in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Recent research in several countries has demonstrated that small-holder tobacco farming is typically not a profitable enterprise. Many farming households report losing money in this economic endeavour, even without incorporating the value of their household labour. Losses are typically considerably worse when household labour is considered. We take advantage of panel data that include information about both current and former tobacco farming households' characteristics and economic decisions to be the first to rigorously estimate the effects of both tobacco and non-tobacco farming on income. METHODS: We designed and implemented a two-wave economic survey of current and former tobacco farming households in Indonesia's two largest tobacco-growing regions. We use regression analysis to estimate the effects of tobacco farming on household income per farming area in both survey waves. RESULTS: We find that former tobacco farming households are typically generating profits from their non-tobacco farming, while current tobacco farming households experience greater variability, including experiencing economic losses. Former tobacco farming households' income were comparable to current tobacco farming households' even in the period in which tobacco leaf production and prices of tobacco leaf were relatively high. We find a negative and significant effect of tobacco farming on household income. CONCLUSIONS: One of the main arguments from those opposing tobacco control policies-especially increasing cigarette excise taxes-is their alleged effect on tobacco farming households' livelihoods through a lower demand for tobacco leaves. Our finding that there is a negative effect of tobacco farming on household income shows that the narrative is grossly inaccurate. Shifting to non-tobacco farming would allow farming households to reallocate their resources to other more lucrative economic opportunities.

In-and-Out of Tobacco Farming: Shifting Behavior of Tobacco Farmers in Indonesia.

Understanding the variables that affect farmers' decisions as to whether to grow tobacco and/or other crops provides important insights into their economic lives and can help to inform the development and implementation of policies that shape both tobacco production and tobacco control, such as increasing tobacco excise taxes. This study employs complementary quantitative and qualitative methodologies to identify variables that affect tobacco farmers' economic decision making in Indonesia, a major tobacco producer. The research focuses on the variables that affect tobacco farmers' decisions to continue tobacco farming or shift to non-tobacco farming. It finds that tobacco farmers' decision making is complex but also predictable. The results of the quantitative analysis suggest that farming profits and positive rainfall shocks are two of the key variables that affect the decision to cultivate tobacco. The qualitative results confirm these findings and further illuminate that access to credit, education (agricultural and otherwise) and information play substantial roles in farmers' economic decision making. Most of these variables are affected by the unequal relationship between the tobacco firms that buy tobacco and the farmers, wherein the farmers are consistently at a disadvantage in terms of negotiating key parameters such as prices and evaluation of leaf quality.