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Background: Pneumonia is the leading cause of death in young children globally and is prevalent in the Papua New Guinea highlands. We investigated clinical predictors of hypoxic pneumonia to inform local treatment guidelines in this resource-limited setting. Methods: Between 2013 and 2020, two consecutive prospective observational studies were undertaken enrolling children 0-4 years presenting with pneumonia to health-care facilities in Goroka Town, Eastern Highlands Province. Logistic regression models were developed to identify clinical predictors of hypoxic pneumonia (oxygen saturation <90% on presentation). Model performance was compared against established criteria to identify severe pneumonia. Findings: There were 2067 cases of pneumonia; hypoxaemia was detected in 36.1%. The strongest independent predictors of hypoxic pneumonia were central cyanosis on examination (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.14; 95% CI 3.47-7.60), reduced breath sounds (aOR 2.92; 95% CI 2.30-3.71), and nasal flaring or grunting (aOR 2.34; 95% CI 1.62-3.38). While the model developed to predict hypoxic pneumonia outperformed established pneumonia severity criteria, it was not sensitive enough to be clinically useful at this time. Interpretation: Given signs and symptoms are unable to accurately detect hypoxia, all health care facilities should be equipped with pulse oximeters. However, for the health care worker without access to pulse oximetry, consideration of central cyanosis, reduced breath sounds, nasal flaring or grunting, age-specific tachycardia, wheezing, parent-reported drowsiness, or bronchial breathing as suggestive of hypoxaemic pneumonia, and thus severe disease, may prove useful in guiding management, hospital referral and use of oxygen therapy. Funding: Funded by Pfizer Global and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Background: Pneumonia is a leading cause of childhood mortality with Streptococcus pneumoniae a major contributor. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been introduced into immunisation programs in many low- to middle-income countries (LMICs) yet there is a paucity of data evaluating the effectiveness in these settings. We assess the effectiveness of 13-valent PCV (13vPCV) against hypoxic pneumonia, hospitalisation and other clinical endpoints in children <5 years living in Eastern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea (PNG). Methods: Data from two consecutive prospective observational studies (2013-2019) enrolling children <60 months presenting with pneumonia were included. Hypoxic pneumonia was defined as oxygen saturations <90%. Outcomes included hospitalisation, severe clinical pneumonia and death. 13vPCV status was determined using written records. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratios of key outcomes by 13vPCV vaccination status adjusted for confounders using inverse probability of treatment weighting. Findings: Data from 2067 children (median age; 9 months [IQR: 5-11]) were included. 739 children (36.1%) were hypoxic and 623 (30.4%) hospitalised. Twelve children (0.6% of total cohort) died in hospital. 670 children (32.7%) were fully 13vPCV-vaccinated. 13vPCV vaccination was associated with a 28.7% reduction (95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.9; 43.6%) in hypoxic pneumonia and a 57.4% reduction (38.0; 70.7%) in pneumonia hospitalisation. Interpretation: 13vPCV vaccination is effective against hypoxic pneumonia and pneumonia hospitalisation in PNG children. Strategies to improve access to and coverage of 13vPCV in PNG and other similar LMICs are urgently required. Funding: Funded by Pfizer Global and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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BACKGROUND: Pneumonia and meningitis are common causes of severe childhood illness in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The etiology of both clinical conditions in PNG has not been recently assessed. Changes in lifestyle, provision and access to healthcare, antimicrobial utilization and resistance, and the national childhood vaccination schedule necessitate reassessment. METHODS: A prospective case-control study was undertaken, enrolling children <5 years of age to determine the contemporary etiology of clinically defined moderate or severe pneumonia or suspected meningitis. Cases were identified following presentation for inpatient or outpatient care in Goroka town, the major population centre in the Eastern Highlands Province. Following enrolment, routine diagnostic specimens including blood, nasopharyngeal swabs, urine and (if required) cerebrospinal fluid, were obtained. Cases residing within one hour's drive of Goroka were followed up, and recruitment of healthy contemporaneous controls was undertaken in the cases' communities. RESULTS: 998 cases and 978 controls were enrolled over 3 years. This included 784 cases (78.6%) with moderate pneumonia, 187 (18.7%) with severe pneumonia and 75 (7.5%) with suspected meningitis, of whom 48 (4.8%) had concurrent pneumonia. The median age of cases was 7.8 months (Interquartile range [IQR] 3.9-14.3), significantly lower than community controls, which was 20.8 months (IQR 8.2-36.4). Half the cases were admitted to hospital (500/998; 50.1%). Recruitment of cases and controls and successful collection of diagnostic specimens improved throughout the study, with blood volume increasing and rates of blood culture contamination decreasing. The overall case fatality rate was 18/998 (1.8%). Of cases eligible for follow-up, outcome data was available from 76.7%. Low but increasing coverage of Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccines on the national schedule was observed during the study period: three dose DTPw-HepB-Hib coverage in children >3 months increased from 14.9 to 43.0% and 29.0 to 47.7% in cases and controls (both p < 0.001). Despite inclusion in the national immunization program in 2014, 2015 PCV13 three-dose coverage in cases and controls >3 months was only 4.0 and 6.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Recruitment of large numbers of pediatric pneumonia and meningitis cases and community controls in a third-world setting presents unique challenges. Successful enrolment of 998 cases and 978 controls with comprehensive clinical data, biological specimens and follow up was achieved. Increased vaccine coverage remains an ongoing health priority.